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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 26 2010 04:17 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 04:04 LSB wrote:(I’ll make a long post on incentives!) So here are the people and their claims so far Chaoser, Subverion Me Hesmyrr: Claims to have RNGed CV and failed Zeks SouthRawrea: Claims to have Picked Traitor and failed Let’s take a look at specific people SouthRawreaAssuming SouthRawrea is town: As town, SouthRawrea would have incentive to immediately tell what happened. It would be perfectly natural. So if he’s town, he’s telling the truth. Assuming SouthRawrea is mafia: This could be a mafia disruption tactic. (see Penalty Mafia, how Bill Murray goes in and acts completely scummy). By sending SouthRawrea, immediately a witchhunt goes on, trying to lynch random people, buying the Mafia valuable time. For example SouthRawrea drafts Prince of Darkness. He’d end up vanilla. He then claims that he drafted traitor but failed. The town would proceed to kill Subverion, Me, Hesmyrr, Chaoser (maybe even Zeks too). And SouthRawrea wouldn’t have trouble persuading the town to kill these “useless anti-town roles”. Boom. That’s a lot of people dead. It would take us 4-5 innocent lynches to take down SouthRawrea, a very good trade off. Like citi.zen said Citi.zen:
What worries me here is that if we screw up 3-4 lynches it’s quite
possible we lost. HesmyrrOut of the top 5, Hesmyrr is the most likely to want to pick Traitor. Because, his role is boring. He is supposed to check to see if Me/Sub/Chao picked the correct role. Probably getting a vanilla role. There is a very small chance that he might make a discovery. On the other hand, he could take traitor, probably won’t be caught, because really, no one will check him. Perfect position. The fact that Hesmyrr could be an undetectable traitor is very troubling. Chaoser, confirmed by Hesmyrr. The chances that Subverion/zeks took his role and Chaoser took traitor is very slim. Subverion: Bad Santa is defiantly an interesting role Zeks: idk Me: PoD ftw! I haz cool role that the mafia wants badly. Muhhahahahaha! What happens if we lynch…SouthRawrea: He flips Mafia, we know that there isn’t a traitor. (Or, there is a traitor, but the mafia doesn’t know about it, and the traitor could be anywhere) Flips town, we know that there is a traitor. Hesmyrr He flips traitor: :D! Flips town: We know that Chaoser is town. Confirming Chaoser: It’s quiet easy to confirm Chaoser, we simply tell the CV “IF you are Chaoser, kill SouthRawrea. IF you are not Chaoser, kill someone else” Confirming Me/Zeks/Subverion. It’s a bad idea to tell us to use our roles. Well, Sub can’t. I’m not dumb, and Zeks should remain hidden. We could have the role cop check on people’s roles. That seems good at a glance, but I don’t know if we want to trade our role cop, for someone that isn’t yet a mafia member and might not count as a mafia member. Good post, but I think you have Chaoser and I mixed up in your list or something. I am comp vig not him. He should have taken bad santa.
Also how did Subversion get in there? He drafted 7th I think.
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Funny Traitor wannabe's, lol.
First off, Hesmyrr, we already know that rastaban would choose the CV and should be the CV now. Why would you pick CV in the first place? I don't really get it.
As for SouthRawrea, there is always a possibility that he is lying. The only logical motive I could think of if he is either Mafia/SK, is that he is wants to plant a seed of doubt in our top 5 draft picks. However, these roles, if done according to plan, are mainly Mafia aligned roles. Offing these roles doesn't exactly impact town much at all. However if the town pushes hard and goes through that list, then it could work as a decoy and waste our lynches/CV kills. Long shot? Yes. Likeliness? 33% I'd say.
Excluding SR himself, and rastaban who should be the CV. These are the people remaining on the list.
2. chaoser
3. LSB
4. Hesmyrr
5. zeks
If we are indeed looking to cast a vote among these people, before we make a decision, I suggest everyone should ask themselves a few questions.
- Is SR's claim likely to be true?
- If yes, is Hesymrr likely to be the Traitor?
- If no, who else could likely be the Traitor?
Right now, I'm inclined to believe SR's claim, but I'm not entirely sure who could be the Traitor. Although I'm still wanting to hear the reasoning from Hesymrr, why he would pick CV when it was a general consensus that our #1 draft pick should pick it.
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On August 26 2010 04:14 Radfield wrote:
It really doesn't make sense for SouthRawrea to be red or SK. Given that ANY action can flip the traitor, I say we lynch #2 and CompVig #3 and rolecheck #5. I guess I'm inclined to trust Hesmyrr, given his play in RotK mafia. But we lose nothing but time from those lynches anyways and we can at least be assured then that they aren't mafia.
Obviously SR isnt the SK
But SR could be mafia, buying time is very very important.
Im going to reference the penalty mafia game i just played
BillMurray goes off, accuses ace scummyly. The vote gets switched to Pyrr, since people think bill and pyrr are working together.
The second day, ace is dead, everyone is confused. Bill stalls again, and jumps on a bandwagon to kill youngminii
By this time, bill has divided the town, and koryne gets lynched the third day. Koryn flips town, we all swear to kill BM the 4th day, but, its too late.
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Hesmyrr
He flips traitor: :D!
Flips town: We know that Chaoser is town.
Please don't confuse roles with alignments.
That said, I will likely vote for Hesmyrr at this time.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On August 26 2010 04:20 Fishball wrote:
Funny Traitor wannabe's, lol.
First off, Hesmyrr, we already know that rastaban would choose the CV and should be the CV now. Why would you pick CV in the first place? I don't really get it.
As for SouthRawrea, there is always a possibility that he is lying. The only logical motive I could think of if he is either Mafia/SK, is that he is wants to plant a seed of doubt in our top 5 draft picks. However, these roles, if done according to plan, are mainly Mafia aligned roles. Offing these roles doesn't exactly impact town much at all. However if the town pushes hard and goes through that list, then it could work as a decoy and waste our lynches/CV kills. Long shot? Yes. Likeliness? 33% I'd say.
Excluding SR himself, and rastaban who should be the CV. These are the people remaining on the list.
2. chaoser
3. LSB
4. Hesmyrr
5. zeks
If we are indeed looking to cast a vote among these people, before we make a decision, I suggest everyone should ask themselves a few questions.
- Is SR's claim likely to be true?
- If yes, is Hesymrr likely to be the Traitor?
- If no, who else could likely be the Traitor?
Right now, I'm inclined to believe SR's claim, but I'm not entirely sure who could be the Traitor. Although I'm still wanting to hear the reasoning from Hesymrr, why he would pick CV when it was a general consensus that our #1 draft pick should pick it.
Did you read the plan?
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That was supposed to be a quote from LSB. And I guess he meant Rastaban.
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On August 26 2010 04:20 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 04:17 rastaban wrote:On August 26 2010 04:04 LSB wrote:(I’ll make a long post on incentives!) So here are the people and their claims so far Chaoser, Subverion Me Hesmyrr: Claims to have RNGed CV and failed Zeks SouthRawrea: Claims to have Picked Traitor and failed Let’s take a look at specific people SouthRawreaAssuming SouthRawrea is town: As town, SouthRawrea would have incentive to immediately tell what happened. It would be perfectly natural. So if he’s town, he’s telling the truth. Assuming SouthRawrea is mafia: This could be a mafia disruption tactic. (see Penalty Mafia, how Bill Murray goes in and acts completely scummy). By sending SouthRawrea, immediately a witchhunt goes on, trying to lynch random people, buying the Mafia valuable time. For example SouthRawrea drafts Prince of Darkness. He’d end up vanilla. He then claims that he drafted traitor but failed. The town would proceed to kill Subverion, Me, Hesmyrr, Chaoser (maybe even Zeks too). And SouthRawrea wouldn’t have trouble persuading the town to kill these “useless anti-town roles”. Boom. That’s a lot of people dead. It would take us 4-5 innocent lynches to take down SouthRawrea, a very good trade off. Like citi.zen said Citi.zen:
What worries me here is that if we screw up 3-4 lynches it’s quite
possible we lost. HesmyrrOut of the top 5, Hesmyrr is the most likely to want to pick Traitor. Because, his role is boring. He is supposed to check to see if Me/Sub/Chao picked the correct role. Probably getting a vanilla role. There is a very small chance that he might make a discovery. On the other hand, he could take traitor, probably won’t be caught, because really, no one will check him. Perfect position. The fact that Hesmyrr could be an undetectable traitor is very troubling. Chaoser, confirmed by Hesmyrr. The chances that Subverion/zeks took his role and Chaoser took traitor is very slim. Subverion: Bad Santa is defiantly an interesting role Zeks: idk Me: PoD ftw! I haz cool role that the mafia wants badly. Muhhahahahaha! What happens if we lynch…SouthRawrea: He flips Mafia, we know that there isn’t a traitor. (Or, there is a traitor, but the mafia doesn’t know about it, and the traitor could be anywhere) Flips town, we know that there is a traitor. Hesmyrr He flips traitor: :D! Flips town: We know that Chaoser is town. Confirming Chaoser: It’s quiet easy to confirm Chaoser, we simply tell the CV “IF you are Chaoser, kill SouthRawrea. IF you are not Chaoser, kill someone else” Confirming Me/Zeks/Subverion. It’s a bad idea to tell us to use our roles. Well, Sub can’t. I’m not dumb, and Zeks should remain hidden. We could have the role cop check on people’s roles. That seems good at a glance, but I don’t know if we want to trade our role cop, for someone that isn’t yet a mafia member and might not count as a mafia member. Good post, but I think you have Chaoser and I mixed up in your list or something. I am comp vig not him. He should have taken bad santa. Also how did Subversion get in there? He drafted 7th I think.
Ooooppss sry guys, i must have copied the first few roles wrong
Replace choaser's name with Rastaban. And replace Subverions name with Choaser
XD sry
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On August 26 2010 04:20 Fishball wrote:
Funny Traitor wannabe's, lol.
First off, Hesmyrr, we already know that rastaban would choose the CV and should be the CV now. Why would you pick CV in the first place? I don't really get it.
As for SouthRawrea, there is always a possibility that he is lying. The only logical motive I could think of if he is either Mafia/SK, is that he is wants to plant a seed of doubt in our top 5 draft picks. However, these roles, if done according to plan, are mainly Mafia aligned roles. Offing these roles doesn't exactly impact town much at all. However if the town pushes hard and goes through that list, then it could work as a decoy and waste our lynches/CV kills. Long shot? Yes. Likeliness? 33% I'd say.
Excluding SR himself, and rastaban who should be the CV. These are the people remaining on the list.
2. chaoser
3. LSB
4. Hesmyrr
5. zeks
If we are indeed looking to cast a vote among these people, before we make a decision, I suggest everyone should ask themselves a few questions.
- Is SR's claim likely to be true?
- If yes, is Hesymrr likely to be the Traitor?
- If no, who else could likely be the Traitor?
Right now, I'm inclined to believe SR's claim, but I'm not entirely sure who could be the Traitor. Although I'm still wanting to hear the reasoning from Hesymrr, why he would pick CV when it was a general consensus that our #1 draft pick should pick it.
Here is Hesmyrr's response, the plan was for him to random one of the top 3 roles so it would make sense for him to check that comp vig didn't slip:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 26 2010 02:43 Hesmyrr wrote:I followed the plan and picked Compulsive Vigilante, it was taken and I am now Vanilla Townie. I am astounded that you quote my post for some completely unknown reason, since I explicitedly said "I picked one of the anti-town roles using RNG generator". I don't know, but I would think one will think I followed my plan and RNG'd for CV/Bad Santa/PoD (anti-town roles) instead of immediately assuming that I took some completely random traitor role. Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 01:45 SouthRawrea wrote:Actually if you look closely at his post: On August 25 2010 09:25 Hesmyrr wrote:
Right, I picked one of the anti-town roles using RNG generator.
This could be a soft claim from him to the mafia as traitor. None of the actual townies would find this suspicious at all as we were trying to take roles away from the mafia anyways but the mafia would look at that and think, maybe he's softclaiming to us? They'd quite easily put any of their power roles on him to try and convert him if it's true. (They'd not bother using a KP on him obviously). Remember at that junction more than two people were specifically mentioning my name as they stressed the new draft order, that one must alter their role choices accordingly. Therefore I posted for everyone that I did what I needed to do by RNG between the three roles. You immediately follow this statement with assumption about my thinking process that comes out of nowhere, saying "because he would probably believe that his 33% chance of getting a role that's probably already taken is useless"? What benefit does I gain by picking traitor, first, and note that I had consistently agreed about the current town's plan and what I needed to do (#4) was completely necessary for the plan to work. This are the facts: * Someone in #1~3 has taken Compulsive Vigilante. * #4 picked Compulsive Vigilante but it was taken, becomes VT. (in my perspective) * #5 claims to have picked Role Cop/Copycat/Defensive role. * #6 claims to have picked Traitor but it was taken, becomes VT. I see several possibilities here: * A town-aligned player in either #2, 3, or 5 (I don't see much point to mafia picking Traitor) chose to betray the town and picked Traitor. Fortunately if we follow Radfield's plan (medic/rolecop target zeks N1) and no one speaks out tomorrow possibility of #5 will be eliminated since zeks will be confirmed townie. I would actually have Alignment cop investigate zeks also for day 1 for this reason to find out his sanity. * #6 is mafia-aligned or traitor, and is lying. Meh, even to me it seems unlikely. Mislynch d1 for one mafia members is honestly not worth the trade, though if #6 really in fact take traitor role I can see he trying to frame me for 1 vs 1 trade. The thing is I, being #4 spot, am in fact not that good a choice for traitor to emerge yet- to counterclaim town PR role is much better way of utilizing the role, which is why I think above possibility is more likely.
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Hesmyrr had a 33% chance of getting comp vig, so I don't think it was strange.
Also if he flips town he confirms my role as CV. Also to the earlier posts about wasting lynches, I will NK south tomorrow if Hesmyrr isn't traitor so we don't lose anything.
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In addition, some suggestions for the watcher/tracker:
Watcher: If the traitor lives after tonight, watch a random person out of the people remaining from #2 - #5
Tracker: A little bit tougher, but starting from me (#5) we have the possibility of people with active roles. Might be able to snipe scum this way either from their hit or attempts to spam actions to recruit the traitor. So pick someone from #5 - #20 (somewhat big range)
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On August 26 2010 04:23 citi.zen wrote:
That was supposed to be a quote from LSB. And I guess he meant Rastaban.
Good to know im not the only one here with the trouble.
Yeah, hesmyrr is a really safe, 2 for 1 deal. But the main problem is if SR is lying.
If SR is lying he wants us to go witch hunting. Bad idea
Possible course of action
1. We lynch Hesmyrr
2. If rastaban is confirmed, have him kill SR
3. Have a role cop check me. (or choaser)
Next day we get the results.
SR is town. I'm town, that means choaser is traitor (or maybe zeks)
SR is red. No traitor. We have rasta confirmed townie
Personally i feel that the role cop should check Choaser, since that would help us tell if the traitor (if there is one) is Choaser or Zeks. But maybe run an RNG and see?
But the problem is using the role cop (he's revealed, but I guess we could medic him)
I will commit to this
##Vote: Hesmyrr
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On August 26 2010 04:30 zeks wrote:
In addition, some suggestions for the watcher/tracker:
Watcher: If the traitor lives after tonight, watch a random person out of the people remaining from #2 - #5
Tracker: A little bit tougher, but starting from me (#5) we have the possibility of people with active roles. Might be able to snipe scum this way either from their hit or attempts to spam actions to recruit the traitor. So pick someone from #5 - #20 (somewhat big range)
Whats the point of the watcher?
The mafia isnt going to try to kill the traitor. Converting is nice, but not a nessesity.
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Here's another thought: the mafia can perhaps find it more advantageous to make some crazy claims if they use the vengeful player. That way there is a chance we mis lynch base on the wrong information, AND when we do catch on they get another kill.
I don't actually think SR did this, but I am saying it's a possibility in this set-up.
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On August 26 2010 04:38 citi.zen wrote:
Here's another thought: the mafia can perhaps find it more advantageous to make some crazy claims if they use the vengeful player. That way there is a chance we mis lynch base on the wrong information, AND when we do catch on they get another kill.
I don't actually think SR did this, but I am saying it's a possibility in this set-up.
I agree, unlikely but if we let me vig him tomorrow then he can't do this and the worst that could happen is he is a red meth man and town loses the comp vig but kills a red power role.
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Okay, before anyone asks, I'll explain why I think that going after the traitor is a good idea.
Before, I thought, that if we went for the traitor, we'd waste a lot of time trying to hunt it down.
But with this we can pull this off in one night. Very efficient. The traitor then QQs cause it didnt do anything XD
At the same time, all my doubts about SR are awnsered. Very nice!
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What's all this about a witch hunt? I said lynch me if I'm wrong. No witch hunt even if I do flip green. There's no immediate danger. You can just keep it mind as you continue along in the game. If you end up with only 1 of the suspects left and no one else has turned up as traitor.. then you've got yourself a likely mafia that late in the game. You can also be on the lookout for possible conversions. If we're unbelievably lucky we may even catch a mafia trying to convert. I'm doing this to benefit town, not to have you guys engage in a mindless killing spree.
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On August 26 2010 04:41 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 04:38 citi.zen wrote:
Here's another thought: the mafia can perhaps find it more advantageous to make some crazy claims if they use the vengeful player. That way there is a chance we mis lynch base on the wrong information, AND when we do catch on they get another kill.
I don't actually think SR did this, but I am saying it's a possibility in this set-up. I agree, unlikely but if we let me vig him tomorrow then he can't do this and the worst that could happen is he is a red meth man and town loses the comp vig but kills a red power role.
Fadoodle me :/
*sigh*
We lynch Hesmyrr, he's a townie, so he'll be safe.
Then we vigi SR. Rastaban will do this.
I just have this gut feeling that the mafia have a plan or something, but oh well. I have to accept the fact that I may be wrong. :/
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And why would hesmyr being town confirm rastaban as town? Wouldnt that jst be confirming him as comp vig? Maybe im missing a step, I follow the zeks confriming though. Anyway, lynch hesmyrr kill south if not a traitor sounds reasonable.
##unvote divinek
##vote Hesmyrr
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On August 26 2010 04:45 bumatlarge wrote:
And why would hesmyr being town confirm rastaban as town? Wouldnt that jst be confirming him as comp vig? Maybe im missing a step, I follow the zeks confriming though. Anyway, lynch hesmyrr kill south if not a traitor sounds reasonable.
##unvote divinek
##vote Hesmyrr
You are correct! It's kinda easy to get stuck in that mindset though due to experience in other games.
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On August 26 2010 04:45 bumatlarge wrote:
And why would hesmyr being town confirm rastaban as town? Wouldnt that jst be confirming him as comp vig? Maybe im missing a step, I follow the zeks confriming though. Anyway, lynch hesmyrr kill south if not a traitor sounds reasonable.
##unvote divinek
##vote Hesmyrr
You are correct, I think the only way that it would slightly confirm me is if Hess was green and sub was red and and I shot him night 2. Even then it would only be partial and not 100%.
Lynching Hess only confirms my role, which is actually very important as town since we need to be able to control it.
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EPT
