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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 586

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-17 14:02:14
September 17 2023 14:00 GMT
#11701
Looks like Tokmak is in danger of being besieged. Unless Ukraine decides to bypass it, the Russian military base inside the town has apparently been hit several times by artillery.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Yurie
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
12088 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-17 14:56:26
September 17 2023 14:31 GMT
#11702
Russia's defenses are working very well. If they still had artillery superiority I doubt Ukraine could advance through them at all. This means they can build up strong second and third lines of defenses behind them while the first one is slowly breached. The only real problem I've heard rumored is a lack of mines due to putting so many on the current lines.

The point where this becomes very troublesome is if Ukraine gets in coastal range for the cheaper artillery, basically cutting Russia in two. Forcing all movement to go through boats or Crimea if they want to move between the North and South fronts. This is still far from happening and not guaranteed to happen at all, Ukraine gets very poor defensive positions and risk counter attacks by that kind of push as well.
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation618 Posts
September 17 2023 19:01 GMT
#11703
A bit about Africa.

Mali, Niger and Burkina-Faso created a military alliance.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mali-niger-burkina-faso-sign-sahel-security-pact-2023-09-16/
All this while Surovikin visits Algeria with Russian MoD delegation
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/97605
And another Deputy of the Minister of Defence, General-Colonel Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, visits Burkina-Faso
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/97750

So it seems that Russian operations in Africa now fell in hands of regular military.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
September 17 2023 21:45 GMT
#11704
--- Nuked ---
captainwaffles
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
United States1050 Posts
September 18 2023 05:57 GMT
#11705
On September 17 2023 20:54 zeo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 17 2023 20:26 sertas wrote:
On September 17 2023 20:22 zeo wrote:
On September 17 2023 10:13 JimmiC wrote:
On September 17 2023 08:46 Excludos wrote:
On September 17 2023 06:07 JimmiC wrote:
An interesting article about how it’s clear Russia is not threatened by NATO because if they were they could have less than 1/5th of the forces in the artic they had before the war. They know NATO won’t attack.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/russian-forces-near-norway-20-171622974.html


There's a bit of an unspoken "duh" there. If NATO invaded, which they won't because nukes, it wouldn't really matter if Russia had pre-war forces at the border or the current 20%. The outcome would be remarkable similar. Meanwhile, they have an actual threat in the war they themselves started. It just wouldn't make sense to not move the forces they have, from borders no one is going to attack from, to the active war they are currently losing in.

The interesting number her is that Russia has pulled 80% of their forces from their borders. Meaning (As we already know), they've taken massive losses that needed to be replenished. But their continuous increase in age group for the conscriptions already told us that tho

I get the whole duh part. But people like zeo like to justify the invasion as defensive, as if they didn’t do it nato would invade. But Russian leadership actions speak much louder than there words.

Agree with rest.

I dont get the point of these low effort ad hominems and strawmans, they are easy to post sure but at least try to post something with any sembalance to reality or what Ive said in the past. Just on this page Im moving to Russia apparently and saying things ive never said to prove other things I never said being used as a prop to attack my character in a piss poor way.

If Im living rent free in your head (like already in the Hitler guys head) at least make the boogie man vaguely resemble what Im saying, not just randomly tacking anything you dont like and building a strawman.


You don't think it's interesting how 99% of people, even most russians dont agree with you, no surely you are correct and everyone else is wrong

Please send the source that 99% of people and most Russians dont agree with me. 99% of a small buble echo chamber maybe, who knows. Or maybe you think Africans, South Americans, Asians and the population in Europe that dont agree with warmongering are not people.



Everyone that isn't an "enlightened" European or North American is a crazy person. If you want to be taken seriously you have to endorse the overthrow of the Russian government, bare minimum. Even prominent liberals like Jeffery Sachs and John Mearshiemer get shit on by the Media and therefore segments of the population that still get "informed" by the mainstream media.

https://x.com/CaptainWaffless
Harris1st
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Germany7202 Posts
September 18 2023 08:23 GMT
#11706
I find it admirable that UA is still fighting a Gentlemens fight like a fencing duel while Russia just bruteforces everything they can. Imagine UA starting to lob some long range missiles into Russian mainlands power grid or main route bridges/ railways. They definitely have the means by now. It's also a question if and how much they would lose support by doing a tactical change like that. What do you guys think?
Go Serral! GG EZ for Ence. Flashbang dance FTW
0x64
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
Finland4615 Posts
September 18 2023 08:34 GMT
#11707
On September 18 2023 14:57 captainwaffles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 17 2023 20:54 zeo wrote:
On September 17 2023 20:26 sertas wrote:
On September 17 2023 20:22 zeo wrote:
On September 17 2023 10:13 JimmiC wrote:
On September 17 2023 08:46 Excludos wrote:
On September 17 2023 06:07 JimmiC wrote:
An interesting article about how it’s clear Russia is not threatened by NATO because if they were they could have less than 1/5th of the forces in the artic they had before the war. They know NATO won’t attack.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/russian-forces-near-norway-20-171622974.html


There's a bit of an unspoken "duh" there. If NATO invaded, which they won't because nukes, it wouldn't really matter if Russia had pre-war forces at the border or the current 20%. The outcome would be remarkable similar. Meanwhile, they have an actual threat in the war they themselves started. It just wouldn't make sense to not move the forces they have, from borders no one is going to attack from, to the active war they are currently losing in.

The interesting number her is that Russia has pulled 80% of their forces from their borders. Meaning (As we already know), they've taken massive losses that needed to be replenished. But their continuous increase in age group for the conscriptions already told us that tho

I get the whole duh part. But people like zeo like to justify the invasion as defensive, as if they didn’t do it nato would invade. But Russian leadership actions speak much louder than there words.

Agree with rest.

I dont get the point of these low effort ad hominems and strawmans, they are easy to post sure but at least try to post something with any sembalance to reality or what Ive said in the past. Just on this page Im moving to Russia apparently and saying things ive never said to prove other things I never said being used as a prop to attack my character in a piss poor way.

If Im living rent free in your head (like already in the Hitler guys head) at least make the boogie man vaguely resemble what Im saying, not just randomly tacking anything you dont like and building a strawman.


You don't think it's interesting how 99% of people, even most russians dont agree with you, no surely you are correct and everyone else is wrong

Please send the source that 99% of people and most Russians dont agree with me. 99% of a small buble echo chamber maybe, who knows. Or maybe you think Africans, South Americans, Asians and the population in Europe that dont agree with warmongering are not people.



Everyone that isn't an "enlightened" European or North American is a crazy person. If you want to be taken seriously you have to endorse the overthrow of the Russian government, bare minimum. Even prominent liberals like Jeffery Sachs and John Mearshiemer get shit on by the Media and therefore segments of the population that still get "informed" by the mainstream media.



You are correct, but also we do believe strongly on your communication that you are a crazy person. Giving advice how to be taken seriously makes it very funny for us. Sometimes people are not banned because they still manage to provide entertainment value, sadly you do so in a thread about war.

Being crazy requires two factors. Acting crazy and a mechanism that enact the denial as such action are crazy. The ways of the human mind are mysterious.

Anyway we are ready for your next lecture about how to become better citizen, how to think outside our bubble, how not to be such crazy persons, how to see the one truth that is hidden to the mass that only one mind in this whole universe has been able to comprehend.


Dump of assembler code from 0xffffffec to 0x64: End of assembler dump.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9299 Posts
September 18 2023 09:52 GMT
#11708
On September 18 2023 17:23 Harris1st wrote:
I find it admirable that UA is still fighting a Gentlemens fight like a fencing duel while Russia just bruteforces everything they can. Imagine UA starting to lob some long range missiles into Russian mainlands power grid or main route bridges/ railways. They definitely have the means by now. It's also a question if and how much they would lose support by doing a tactical change like that. What do you guys think?


I think it wouldn't be cost effective to use western long range missiles on Russian infrastructure. It only makes sense if you believe you can cripple most of your enemy's economy and keep it crippled for the rest of the war. Ukraine can't do that.

It's a bit like spamming nukes in starcraft's late game. Those attacks aren't cost effective but can work if you can manage to stop your opponent from mining until they starve.
You're now breathing manually
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation618 Posts
September 18 2023 10:21 GMT
#11709
On September 18 2023 06:45 JimmiC wrote:
Russians in the government and military bloggers are complaining about the pervasive problem of lying all throughout the military and how the falsely good reports (that some of our posters believe like facts) are causing bad decisions all throughout the military.

I find it interesting given that some of the more outspoken ultranationalist have been arrested. More arrests incoming? Change seems unlikely.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/russian-pro-war-bloggers-blasting-173952552.html

While the issue raised is indeed a persistent problem in Russian Armed Forces, Gurulev is not an unbiased source in this one. He was protege of a former Chief of Staff, Nikolay Makarov, who, in turn, was in team with former Defence Minister, Anatoliy Serdyukov. After Shoigu took over, Gurulev was placed from active service in a position of a talking head, which is why he has a beef with current MoD leadership. He was also infamous for selling the labour of his subordinate soldiers for profit.

Meanwhile in Ukraine six Deputy Ministers in MoD were relieved of duty.
https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Ukraine-fires-6-deputy-defense-ministers/60657767
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17743 Posts
September 18 2023 10:40 GMT
#11710
A 48-year-old employee of the Ministry of Defense from Arnhem has been arrested on suspicion of circumventing sanctions against Russia. He is suspected of sending aircraft parts to Russia through an intermediary.

The case came to light as a result of information from the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), which investigates transactions and money flows related to money laundering and terrorist financing.

https://nltimes.nl/2023/09/17/dutch-defense-ministry-employee-arrested-selling-airplane-parts-russia
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
September 18 2023 10:49 GMT
#11711
Highly recommended video. It features interviews of middle-aged/old Russian people living in a rural area. I was surprised to see that the majority of opinions sound very reasonable. A few people though speak favorably of the drafting policy.

One of the men says his nephew was drafted despite having a metal rod in his leg after surgery. This is apparently preferable to the Kremlin over sending a healthier individual from Moscow.

I can't say if there's perhaps a bias with the selection of individuals willing to appear on camera. What I do notice is that mostly men are featured and very few women. Would've been good to have a bit more balance for different insight.

If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-18 15:15:25
September 18 2023 15:14 GMT
#11712
Supposed photos of the Russian submarine that was hit while in dry dock in Sevastopol. If it can be repaired think it might take a while.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Yurie
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
12088 Posts
September 18 2023 15:26 GMT
#11713
On September 18 2023 18:52 Sent. wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 18 2023 17:23 Harris1st wrote:
I find it admirable that UA is still fighting a Gentlemens fight like a fencing duel while Russia just bruteforces everything they can. Imagine UA starting to lob some long range missiles into Russian mainlands power grid or main route bridges/ railways. They definitely have the means by now. It's also a question if and how much they would lose support by doing a tactical change like that. What do you guys think?


I think it wouldn't be cost effective to use western long range missiles on Russian infrastructure. It only makes sense if you believe you can cripple most of your enemy's economy and keep it crippled for the rest of the war. Ukraine can't do that.

It's a bit like spamming nukes in starcraft's late game. Those attacks aren't cost effective but can work if you can manage to stop your opponent from mining until they starve.


Also heard the same thing. Russia has more missiles and more infrastructure than Ukraine and hitting infrastructure in Ukraine had a small war impact. Thus having to serve more targets with less munition doesn't really make sense. Better to hit something else, like a submarine or airplane.
0x64
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
Finland4615 Posts
September 18 2023 15:37 GMT
#11714
On September 19 2023 00:26 Yurie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 18 2023 18:52 Sent. wrote:
On September 18 2023 17:23 Harris1st wrote:
I find it admirable that UA is still fighting a Gentlemens fight like a fencing duel while Russia just bruteforces everything they can. Imagine UA starting to lob some long range missiles into Russian mainlands power grid or main route bridges/ railways. They definitely have the means by now. It's also a question if and how much they would lose support by doing a tactical change like that. What do you guys think?


I think it wouldn't be cost effective to use western long range missiles on Russian infrastructure. It only makes sense if you believe you can cripple most of your enemy's economy and keep it crippled for the rest of the war. Ukraine can't do that.

It's a bit like spamming nukes in starcraft's late game. Those attacks aren't cost effective but can work if you can manage to stop your opponent from mining until they starve.


Also heard the same thing. Russia has more missiles and more infrastructure than Ukraine and hitting infrastructure in Ukraine had a small war impact. Thus having to serve more targets with less munition doesn't really make sense. Better to hit something else, like a submarine or airplane.


Yes, and while Russia doesn't care about potential impact on Civilian and want to target infra to lower moral. Ukrainians are sane and don't feel like randomly targeting Russian civils.
Dump of assembler code from 0xffffffec to 0x64: End of assembler dump.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22373 Posts
September 18 2023 15:40 GMT
#11715
Nor is Russian citizens being miserable going to force Putin to withdraw his forces.
Terror attacks against Russians isn't going to accomplish anything.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17743 Posts
September 18 2023 17:50 GMT
#11716
On September 19 2023 00:14 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Supposed photos of the Russian submarine that was hit while in dry dock in Sevastopol. If it can be repaired think it might take a while.


I don't think you can repair submarines after major hull breaches. Constructions that are designed to work under pressure are typically composed of as few components as possible so you can't really just patch the holes as it would affect its structural integrity too much and introduce too many potential points of failure.

Mind you, I'm no expert on that, just going by the simple principles of physics/engineering here.

Subs do undergo periodic maintenance and overhauls but for such damage I think that you'd have to replace almost the entire hull? Not sure if it wouldn't be easier to just salvage what you can of the internals and build a new sub.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Lmui
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada6223 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-18 20:20:45
September 18 2023 19:51 GMT
#11717
This is the closest comparable scenario that I remember. It's more applicable to the landing ship than the submarine though:

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a34837249/bonhomme-richard-navy-ship-scrapped-after-fire/

The Bonhomme Richard caught fire on July 12, 2020 while docked at its home port in San Diego. The firefighting effort spanned four days, involving hundreds of seamen and even water drops by Navy helicopters on the burning ship. The fire, which started in the lower decks of the ship reserved for storing Marine vehicles, spread to the stern and bow and up through every level of the ship.


The hull isn't created all at once, it's made in sections and then welded together, but the damage looks too extensive to save the boat.

The sections damaged are the weapons systems/Sonar/command sections which are probably the most expensive parts of the boat.

[image loading]


It might be possible to salvage the propulsion section, I can't see anything else being usable.

Edit::

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Miami_(SSN-755)

USS Miami was set on fire, with damage to torpedoes, c&c and crew living which scrapped it, so the Russian sub is a goner
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4478 Posts
September 18 2023 20:34 GMT
#11718
On September 19 2023 02:50 Manit0u wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2023 00:14 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Supposed photos of the Russian submarine that was hit while in dry dock in Sevastopol. If it can be repaired think it might take a while.


I don't think you can repair submarines after major hull breaches. Constructions that are designed to work under pressure are typically composed of as few components as possible so you can't really just patch the holes as it would affect its structural integrity too much and introduce too many potential points of failure.

Mind you, I'm no expert on that, just going by the simple principles of physics/engineering here.

Subs do undergo periodic maintenance and overhauls but for such damage I think that you'd have to replace almost the entire hull? Not sure if it wouldn't be easier to just salvage what you can of the internals and build a new sub.


The main problem with repairing the boat is that not a single crack, even the size of a hair, can be left behind. That means the hull is now likely unusable in its entirety. Even if something can be used, a complete restoration of the boat would take years. Practically speaking it's forever out of service.
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Excludos
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Norway8257 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-18 23:20:58
September 18 2023 23:18 GMT
#11719
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/18/7420328/

Numbers are from Russia's own ministry of labour, so it pretty much confirms at least 230000 deaths. These numbers will also be lagging behind by a number of months, so will definitively be higher by now

Ukraine's own numbers lies at 270k as of this September. As expected, Ukraine's numbers are slightly optimistic, but not at all far from realistic
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation618 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-09-19 08:44:53
September 19 2023 05:03 GMT
#11720
On September 19 2023 08:18 Excludos wrote:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/18/7420328/

Numbers are from Russia's own ministry of labour, so it pretty much confirms at least 230000 deaths. These numbers will also be lagging behind by a number of months, so will definitively be higher by now

Ukraine's own numbers lies at 270k as of this September. As expected, Ukraine's numbers are slightly optimistic, but not at all far from realistic

The papers about Russia that are mentioned are for family members of deceased soldiers (since they are entitled to some state benefits for that). So if anything (not including the point that some of these are ordered in advance, since Russian state purchase system is a lenghty process) it confirms that there are 230000 people, who have a deceased soldier in their family, and family in this instance means parents, spouses and children, as per Russian family law.

Edit: on a second thought, this number may not be about currently sustained losses (or at least mostly not about them). Because you need to have this stuff in advance when relatives of the deceased person make those documents in social security service. Such documents for previous losses were most likely given from already existing stock.
So this order is, most likely, made in advance for currently projected losses, plus, maybe, for fighting soldiers recently acknowledged officially as veterans (such as Wagner troops). So this number is very far from being anything conclusive.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
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