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Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine - Page 356

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Billyboy
Profile Joined September 2024
1015 Posts
October 14 2024 16:21 GMT
#7101
On October 14 2024 14:34 pmp10 wrote:
It seems US will be deploying missile defences directly to Israel.
Clearly they don't think that previous Iran retaliation was the last one.
Apparently foreign troops stationed in Israel is pretty unusual, but one case were Patriot batteries deployed in 1991.
Supposedly, back then Israel was given them in exchange for not retaliating too hard against Iraq.
History rymes.

In either case the preparations for escalation will have global implications and are bad news for Ukraine.
Any missile war with Iran might leave them short of patriots to defend their infrastructure.



Every blogger I've watched and read about is happy that Israel is attacking Iran assets, some are even calling it one war. Shahid drones have killed a lot Ukrainian civilians and troops and Iran has provided a lot of other support. Many have started showing the Russian and Iranian Assets getting destroyed by Israel in Syria and Lebanon at the end of videos. Some of the drone production has moved to Russia but they seem very happy to have someone directly attacking Iranian infrastructure.

Most have been calling for attacks on the Nuclear facilities and Oil refining. They are probably more pissed about the US giving them Patriots to take less high value targets then about them actually going there.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland25239 Posts
October 14 2024 17:18 GMT
#7102
On October 14 2024 22:55 PremoBeats wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2024 21:49 WombaT wrote:
On October 14 2024 21:05 PremoBeats wrote:
On October 14 2024 20:22 Jockmcplop wrote:
On October 14 2024 20:02 PremoBeats wrote:
On October 14 2024 19:33 Jockmcplop wrote:
On October 14 2024 19:29 PremoBeats wrote:
On October 14 2024 19:20 Nebuchad wrote:
I reckon the IDF is probably lying, but by the time it becomes apparent they were, everybody will have moved on.


What a surprise! You think that the IDF is lying?
But in this case it absolutely seems plausible: They orchestrated the Hezbollah attack on their tanks with a mule which they placed in Hezbollah, sacrificed a couple of soldiers to be able to harass the UN and make them leave. Completely sound reasoning!


'Israel is lying' is actually a really good default position, the same as 'Hamas is lying'.
The fact that both have been repeatedly caught lying about the conflict means that believing one side or the other is just showing bias at this point.


For it to be a good default position, you would need to prove that they lied more often than they told the truths.
The reasoning gets worse and worse at this point. You guys made it perfectly clear that you are only here to shit on Israel. Which is fine, I guess. I am simply here to point out the illogical ways of thinking and denials of actual data once they occur (which happens quite often).

to your second text: You and I engaged in a short wall of text, don't you remember? Which started quite nice iirc. But somewhere the cynicism started to kick in and one-liners were the new MO.


Yes but I don't have the energy these days to keep it up.
I've been cynical all along, especially when it comes to Israel. That's what happens when over the years you see constant dehumanization of Palestinians, weak excuses for outright murder, ethnic cleansing being portrayed as necessary rather than a choice etc. etc.

The same way I don't listen to what Hamas are saying, and I don't listen to what Trump is saying, I won't listen to the propaganda coming from Israel.

Sometimes a source will prove itself so unreliable as to actually damage any hope of conversation.

On the other side of this, the UN are a pretty good source when it comes to the conflict.



You are perfectly fine to focus on dozens of singular incidents that paint a certain picture, but are not representative of the overall conflict or MO of a certain side.
And if you think that the UN with its in-built majority against Israel and especially UNRWA are good sources, that is ok too. But I'd rather look at the grand scheme and compare data from this conflict to similar ones.

Hence, I have no issues to point out that Hamas is deliberately targeting civilians as this is well-documented by neutral sources as well as Hamas themselves, who broadcasted their barbarism live when it happened, while denying the same intention for Israel, as the numbers do not indicate it.
And while I never claimed that Israel's side never did anything wrong (quite contrary, I denounced and condemned all of the proven war crimes that happened) as I don't believe it, people seem to forget that this is a war. And horrible things simply happen in wars. A lot.

On October 14 2024 20:25 Salazarz wrote:
On October 14 2024 20:17 PremoBeats wrote:
On October 14 2024 20:06 Salazarz wrote:
Which of the things I've listed aren't happening?

Wouldn't it be nice if you answered the questions that I posed several times now first?


No it wouldn't, because if you're going to pretend the things I'm talking about aren't real then there's no reason to engage with you in good faith.

The side that is saying that a genocide or deliberate starvation targeted at the Gazan population is happening are not pretending that things that do not happen are actually happening? Is that not a sign of bad faith?

Ethnic cleansing. I believe it is happening, once the hostages have been freed and the Israelis are actually forcing the Gazans out of Palestine.

How can you do this if you dismiss testimony and various sources of data out of hand?

That aside I don’t think there are too many comparable conflicts. Whether Israel’s numbers re civilian casualties are reasonable or not I’m not sure can be ascertained in this manner.

There are few conflicts I’m aware of with such a huge power disparity, level of military sophistication etc. Where it’s effectively shooting fish in a barrel in a pretty small geographic area if you so fancy it.

This isn’t to say that attempting a comparison is a fruitless exercise, I just don’t see that many conflicts that have these characteristics, to the degree we’re approaching apples and oranges territory.



Which testimonies and data do you mean?
Perhaps I haven't made myself clear: I don't deny that horrible things, mistakes and actual war crimes happened.
I am rather posing questions if they simply paint a picture that is truly representative of the whole conflict (hence before I spoke of dozens of singular instances... I don't deny them. I simply question how much they represent the whole conflict of thousands of encounters weekly).

I used the civilian casualty rate before to counter the claims of "genocide" and "deliberate targeting of Palestinian civilians". These allegations simply make no sense when we compare civilian casualty rates with similar conflicts, where the IDF fares much better than other factions, despite Hamas' human shield tactics.
Things like Israelis forcing Palestinians into tunnels to check for booby traps happened nevertheless. Or attacks on humanitarian convoys for whatever reasons. But my point is, that all of this is happening in each and every war and that Israel is faring much better than other factions in comparison, despite the hurdles that are unique to Gaza.

And the power dynamic - in my opinion - is completely irrelevant, if the inferior side keeps attacking. I don't know if you read my stance on this before, but I think, that to surrender or not re-engage is the responsibility of the inferior force (in this context: let the hostages go and stop fighting immediately).
And it is the responsibility of the superior force to present conditions and terms that prevent escalation in the future (see Versailles. In this context: de-settlement, plans for bringing infrastructure to Gaza).
Israel is stronger by far, but it cannot leave the targeted attack on civilians, mass abduction and displacement go without doing anything - no country could. And I wouldn't even mind, if Hamas was fighting only for the freedom of Gazans and attacking military targets.
But they don't. They disregard the needs of their population to fight a war of terror against the state that they want to eradicate with the support of other Islamic extremist groups.

And I think my stance is the reason, people hardly engage with me.
They cannot answer what Israel should have done after October 7th, except put ALL blame on them and dodging the question.
They cannot answer how to get rid of Hamas in Gaza, which is the primary hurdle that stands in the way of a more prosperous Gaza as 2007 and onward have shown.
They also cannot answer what to do about the over 100 hostages if Israel goes along with their suggestion of an immediate cease-fire.
Because there are no easy solutions.

But what similar conflicts are there? I’ve posited this about 5 separate times in this thread, while you answer other things thoroughly to be fair. But you’re complaining about not having people engage you, I’ve engaged you on this point multiple times.

The power asymmetry is quite impactful, as is the sophisticated hardware component.

Two factions of vaguely equivalent military capability, at least in a sophistication level if not in numbers, who go actually toe to toe in a civil war, where they don’t have some of the most advanced military kit going are almost invariably going to do more damage to the civilian population.

Two 11 year olds throwing haymakers might do each other a fair amount of damage. Whereas I, as a 34 year old man don’t have to beat the shit out of my 11 year old if he hits me.

I just don’t think there are particularly equivalent conflicts with which to set some benchmark and judge Israel versus said benchmark.

I mean what’s the comparison with civilian casualties in Iraq or Afghanistan caused by the ‘coalition of the willing’? I don’t think that’s a particularly equivalent conflict, outside of a gigantic military tech superiority, and I stand by my previous statements that there aren’t really particularly comparable conflicts.

I’ve also heard people say ‘what if the British just bombed the shit out of Northern Ireland to try and root out the IRA’, which I think is ridiculous as well, it didn’t happen and also as much as we like to wail about the Troubles over here it’s not even remotely in the same ballpark as this conflict.

What should Israel have done post October 7th? It’s unpalatable but I agree that it’s effectively inconceivable they don’t respond in some fashion. My issue is primarily with policy during ‘peacetime’, and the sheer extent of their response.

If how to get rid of Hamas was a simple solution, the international community could have figured it out by now. I, as a humble Liquidian doesn’t have much of a shot.

I’m not Israeli, I’m not particularly sympathetic to Israelis beyond equal opportunity empathy. What to do about 100 hostages isn’t to kill tens of thousands of civilians. However, I know this kind of attitude isn’t realistic for their compatriots, much less their loved ones. Rare indeed is the soul who would abandon their nearest and dearest for the greater utilitarian good, so it’s not something I’m too judgemental on. Especially as my nation alongside the US blazed an incredibly destructive trail through the Middle East, destabilised the region etc effectively for impotent revenge.

And I do have some sympathy with Israel in some domains, just not in their dealings with the Palestinian people. They may couch it in solidarity but I don’t really buy it when it comes to an Iran, or Hezbollah
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12172 Posts
October 14 2024 19:14 GMT
#7103
I feel forced to remind people once again that the deals for a ceasefire that Israel rejected included releasing all the hostages, that Netanyahu knows this and purposely let the hostages continue to be hostages in order to continue his aggression, and that Premo also knows this and is just using the existence of the hostages in a cold and dishonest fashion in order to look like he has more points to score in his traditional sealioning.
No will to live, no wish to die
Billyboy
Profile Joined September 2024
1015 Posts
October 14 2024 21:05 GMT
#7104
On October 15 2024 04:14 Nebuchad wrote:
I feel forced to remind people once again that the deals for a ceasefire that Israel rejected included releasing all the hostages, that Netanyahu knows this and purposely let the hostages continue to be hostages in order to continue his aggression, and that Premo also knows this and is just using the existence of the hostages in a cold and dishonest fashion in order to look like he has more points to score in his traditional sealioning.

Could you source this? The last I was reading all about the negotiations was when all parties had agreed to a ceasefire (I believe at least 6 weeks) for 100 hostages, but then it came out that Hamas didn't know where they were and it was some number of live hostage's and bodies but couldn't confirm the number of live ones (I think I remember around 30) or that they could even get enough of the bodies to add up to 100.

Mind you this was a while ago. I'd like to read the updates.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12172 Posts
October 14 2024 21:30 GMT
#7105
On October 15 2024 06:05 Billyboy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 15 2024 04:14 Nebuchad wrote:
I feel forced to remind people once again that the deals for a ceasefire that Israel rejected included releasing all the hostages, that Netanyahu knows this and purposely let the hostages continue to be hostages in order to continue his aggression, and that Premo also knows this and is just using the existence of the hostages in a cold and dishonest fashion in order to look like he has more points to score in his traditional sealioning.

Could you source this? The last I was reading all about the negotiations was when all parties had agreed to a ceasefire (I believe at least 6 weeks) for 100 hostages, but then it came out that Hamas didn't know where they were and it was some number of live hostage's and bodies but couldn't confirm the number of live ones (I think I remember around 30) or that they could even get enough of the bodies to add up to 100.

Mind you this was a while ago. I'd like to read the updates.


We are probably talking about the same thing. Something like this works probably? https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240706-hamas-drops-key-demand-to-accept-phased-us-deal-on-ceasefire-hostages
No will to live, no wish to die
Billyboy
Profile Joined September 2024
1015 Posts
October 14 2024 22:07 GMT
#7106
On October 15 2024 06:30 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 15 2024 06:05 Billyboy wrote:
On October 15 2024 04:14 Nebuchad wrote:
I feel forced to remind people once again that the deals for a ceasefire that Israel rejected included releasing all the hostages, that Netanyahu knows this and purposely let the hostages continue to be hostages in order to continue his aggression, and that Premo also knows this and is just using the existence of the hostages in a cold and dishonest fashion in order to look like he has more points to score in his traditional sealioning.

Could you source this? The last I was reading all about the negotiations was when all parties had agreed to a ceasefire (I believe at least 6 weeks) for 100 hostages, but then it came out that Hamas didn't know where they were and it was some number of live hostage's and bodies but couldn't confirm the number of live ones (I think I remember around 30) or that they could even get enough of the bodies to add up to 100.

Mind you this was a while ago. I'd like to read the updates.


We are probably talking about the same thing. Something like this works probably? https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240706-hamas-drops-key-demand-to-accept-phased-us-deal-on-ceasefire-hostages

Then your framing seems a off. That being said you have "leaks" giving out all the info so who knows what is the true story. I just remember there being almost a victory lap from the Americans and the Qatari before it came out that Hamas couldn't deliver. Then what Hamas was giving kept getting smaller but still could not deliver, then talks were off and shortly after that Israel blew up the Hamas lead negotiator. After that I didn't really see anything else come up.

My impression was neither Hamas nor Netanyahu actually wanted peace and they were both just going through the motions.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12172 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-10-14 22:17:17
October 14 2024 22:15 GMT
#7107
On October 15 2024 07:07 Billyboy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 15 2024 06:30 Nebuchad wrote:
On October 15 2024 06:05 Billyboy wrote:
On October 15 2024 04:14 Nebuchad wrote:
I feel forced to remind people once again that the deals for a ceasefire that Israel rejected included releasing all the hostages, that Netanyahu knows this and purposely let the hostages continue to be hostages in order to continue his aggression, and that Premo also knows this and is just using the existence of the hostages in a cold and dishonest fashion in order to look like he has more points to score in his traditional sealioning.

Could you source this? The last I was reading all about the negotiations was when all parties had agreed to a ceasefire (I believe at least 6 weeks) for 100 hostages, but then it came out that Hamas didn't know where they were and it was some number of live hostage's and bodies but couldn't confirm the number of live ones (I think I remember around 30) or that they could even get enough of the bodies to add up to 100.

Mind you this was a while ago. I'd like to read the updates.


We are probably talking about the same thing. Something like this works probably? https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240706-hamas-drops-key-demand-to-accept-phased-us-deal-on-ceasefire-hostages

Then your framing seems a off. That being said you have "leaks" giving out all the info so who knows what is the true story. I just remember there being almost a victory lap from the Americans and the Qatari before it came out that Hamas couldn't deliver. Then what Hamas was giving kept getting smaller but still could not deliver, then talks were off and shortly after that Israel blew up the Hamas lead negotiator. After that I didn't really see anything else come up.

My impression was neither Hamas nor Netanyahu actually wanted peace and they were both just going through the motions.


Okay. I also have a few articles from september where people in Netanyahu's cabinet seemed quite ready to put the blame on Netanyahu for the ceasefire deals failing if you're interested, for example these two:

But Israel’s “supreme effort” has not been unstinting; Netanyahu’s own defense minister and security chiefs have made clear for months — in numerous closed-door security consultations and sometimes publicly — their belief that the prime minister could and should have been more flexible in his efforts to draw Hamas into an agreement. Some of them have also credibly charged that the prime minister has been influenced by his own political considerations, amid warnings from his far-right partners that they would bring down his government if he cut what they consider to be a reckless deal.

[...]

Blindsided by the vote, a horrified Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, according to widely leaked transcripts of the meeting, argued that it risked torpedoing the deal and thus dooming the hostages. “The significance of this is that Hamas won’t agree to it, so there won’t be an agreement and there won’t be any hostages released,” Gallant reportedly told the ministers.

Netanyahu replied: “This is the decision.”

Gallant, though isolated in a forum dominated by Netanyahu loyalists along with the far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, tried again: He reportedly told his ministerial colleagues that, if they approved the maps, they would be choosing to maintain the IDF’s deployment on the Philadelphi Corridor for six more weeks at the price of failing to bring home hostages. “Does this seem logical to you?” Gallant reportedly asked. “There are living (hostages) there!”

The cabinet endorsed the maps, by eight votes to one (Gallant’s).


https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-so-called-supreme-effort-for-a-hostage-ceasefire-deal-has-been-skewed-inadequate/

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July effectively spiked a draft hostage and ceasefire deal by introducing a raft of new, 11th-hour demands, according to a report by the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth citing a document it obtained.

The report lends credence to charges often leveled at the prime minister – most notably by hostage families – of purposefully prolonging the war and torpedoing deals for his political benefit. Far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition have pledged to bring down the government should he end the war.

[...]

But separately, an Israeli source familiar with the talks said Netanyahu’s demands were to blame for the deaths of the hostages over the weekend.

“Two months ago, when he (Netanyahu) put the obstacles, he said no to the deal,” the source told CNN. “The hostages died because he insisted.”

The Hostages Families Forum said this weekend that “the finding of the bodies yesterday is a direct result of Netanyahu’s thwarting of the deals.”

On July 25, a senior US Administration official told CNN that negotiators were “closer than we’ve ever been” and that it was “up to the Israelis to accept it.”


https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/04/middleeast/netanyahu-derailed-hostage-deal-in-july-intl/index.html
No will to live, no wish to die
pmp10
Profile Joined April 2012
3318 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-10-15 04:21:40
October 15 2024 04:21 GMT
#7108
It seems that Israel won't be striking Iranian oil or nuclear.
That would leave them with (mostly) military targets to choose from.
Restrain almost certainly resulting from announced US missile deployment.

That's of course assuming this isn't another 'miscommunication' like with the Lebanon cease-fire call.
KT_Elwood
Profile Joined July 2015
Germany942 Posts
October 15 2024 13:16 GMT
#7109
Israel should now be very interested in destroying Iran's capabilities to manufacture ground-hugging drones that evade missle defense systems.

"First he eats our dogs, and then he taxes the penguins... Donald Trump truly is the Donald Trump of our generation. " -DPB
Billyboy
Profile Joined September 2024
1015 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-10-15 15:58:47
October 15 2024 15:52 GMT
#7110
On October 15 2024 07:15 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 15 2024 07:07 Billyboy wrote:
On October 15 2024 06:30 Nebuchad wrote:
On October 15 2024 06:05 Billyboy wrote:
On October 15 2024 04:14 Nebuchad wrote:
I feel forced to remind people once again that the deals for a ceasefire that Israel rejected included releasing all the hostages, that Netanyahu knows this and purposely let the hostages continue to be hostages in order to continue his aggression, and that Premo also knows this and is just using the existence of the hostages in a cold and dishonest fashion in order to look like he has more points to score in his traditional sealioning.

Could you source this? The last I was reading all about the negotiations was when all parties had agreed to a ceasefire (I believe at least 6 weeks) for 100 hostages, but then it came out that Hamas didn't know where they were and it was some number of live hostage's and bodies but couldn't confirm the number of live ones (I think I remember around 30) or that they could even get enough of the bodies to add up to 100.

Mind you this was a while ago. I'd like to read the updates.


We are probably talking about the same thing. Something like this works probably? https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240706-hamas-drops-key-demand-to-accept-phased-us-deal-on-ceasefire-hostages

Then your framing seems a off. That being said you have "leaks" giving out all the info so who knows what is the true story. I just remember there being almost a victory lap from the Americans and the Qatari before it came out that Hamas couldn't deliver. Then what Hamas was giving kept getting smaller but still could not deliver, then talks were off and shortly after that Israel blew up the Hamas lead negotiator. After that I didn't really see anything else come up.

My impression was neither Hamas nor Netanyahu actually wanted peace and they were both just going through the motions.


Okay. I also have a few articles from september where people in Netanyahu's cabinet seemed quite ready to put the blame on Netanyahu for the ceasefire deals failing if you're interested, for example these two:

Show nested quote +
But Israel’s “supreme effort” has not been unstinting; Netanyahu’s own defense minister and security chiefs have made clear for months — in numerous closed-door security consultations and sometimes publicly — their belief that the prime minister could and should have been more flexible in his efforts to draw Hamas into an agreement. Some of them have also credibly charged that the prime minister has been influenced by his own political considerations, amid warnings from his far-right partners that they would bring down his government if he cut what they consider to be a reckless deal.

[...]

Blindsided by the vote, a horrified Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, according to widely leaked transcripts of the meeting, argued that it risked torpedoing the deal and thus dooming the hostages. “The significance of this is that Hamas won’t agree to it, so there won’t be an agreement and there won’t be any hostages released,” Gallant reportedly told the ministers.

Netanyahu replied: “This is the decision.”

Gallant, though isolated in a forum dominated by Netanyahu loyalists along with the far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, tried again: He reportedly told his ministerial colleagues that, if they approved the maps, they would be choosing to maintain the IDF’s deployment on the Philadelphi Corridor for six more weeks at the price of failing to bring home hostages. “Does this seem logical to you?” Gallant reportedly asked. “There are living (hostages) there!”

The cabinet endorsed the maps, by eight votes to one (Gallant’s).


https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-so-called-supreme-effort-for-a-hostage-ceasefire-deal-has-been-skewed-inadequate/

Show nested quote +
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July effectively spiked a draft hostage and ceasefire deal by introducing a raft of new, 11th-hour demands, according to a report by the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth citing a document it obtained.

The report lends credence to charges often leveled at the prime minister – most notably by hostage families – of purposefully prolonging the war and torpedoing deals for his political benefit. Far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition have pledged to bring down the government should he end the war.

[...]

But separately, an Israeli source familiar with the talks said Netanyahu’s demands were to blame for the deaths of the hostages over the weekend.

“Two months ago, when he (Netanyahu) put the obstacles, he said no to the deal,” the source told CNN. “The hostages died because he insisted.”

The Hostages Families Forum said this weekend that “the finding of the bodies yesterday is a direct result of Netanyahu’s thwarting of the deals.”

On July 25, a senior US Administration official told CNN that negotiators were “closer than we’ve ever been” and that it was “up to the Israelis to accept it.”


https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/04/middleeast/netanyahu-derailed-hostage-deal-in-july-intl/index.html

I have read lots of stuff like that. There is a reason for all the protests in Israel about the government not bringing back the hostages, it is just that Hamas is also not looking for a cease fire either.

It does appear to different with Hezbollah, they seem to be actually wanting a ceasefire.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-deputy-chief-says-group-aims-inflict-pain-israel-2024-10-15/
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9646 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-10-16 08:52:53
October 16 2024 08:52 GMT
#7111
The first aid in two weeks has been allowed into northern Gaza, after an Israeli minister came out in defence of the practice of blockading aid routes.

I guess that sets fire the argument that Israel isn't blockading aid any more.

Its impossible to deny that this is targeting civilians.
Of course it is.
The same way nuking a city is targeting civilians.
If it affects everybody, then it affects civilians the most.
RIP Meatloaf <3
PremoBeats
Profile Joined March 2024
407 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-10-16 09:07:09
October 16 2024 09:05 GMT
#7112
On October 15 2024 02:18 WombaT wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 14 2024 22:55 PremoBeats wrote:
On October 14 2024 21:49 WombaT wrote:
On October 14 2024 21:05 PremoBeats wrote:
On October 14 2024 20:22 Jockmcplop wrote:
On October 14 2024 20:02 PremoBeats wrote:
On October 14 2024 19:33 Jockmcplop wrote:
On October 14 2024 19:29 PremoBeats wrote:
On October 14 2024 19:20 Nebuchad wrote:
I reckon the IDF is probably lying, but by the time it becomes apparent they were, everybody will have moved on.


What a surprise! You think that the IDF is lying?
But in this case it absolutely seems plausible: They orchestrated the Hezbollah attack on their tanks with a mule which they placed in Hezbollah, sacrificed a couple of soldiers to be able to harass the UN and make them leave. Completely sound reasoning!


'Israel is lying' is actually a really good default position, the same as 'Hamas is lying'.
The fact that both have been repeatedly caught lying about the conflict means that believing one side or the other is just showing bias at this point.


For it to be a good default position, you would need to prove that they lied more often than they told the truths.
The reasoning gets worse and worse at this point. You guys made it perfectly clear that you are only here to shit on Israel. Which is fine, I guess. I am simply here to point out the illogical ways of thinking and denials of actual data once they occur (which happens quite often).

to your second text: You and I engaged in a short wall of text, don't you remember? Which started quite nice iirc. But somewhere the cynicism started to kick in and one-liners were the new MO.


Yes but I don't have the energy these days to keep it up.
I've been cynical all along, especially when it comes to Israel. That's what happens when over the years you see constant dehumanization of Palestinians, weak excuses for outright murder, ethnic cleansing being portrayed as necessary rather than a choice etc. etc.

The same way I don't listen to what Hamas are saying, and I don't listen to what Trump is saying, I won't listen to the propaganda coming from Israel.

Sometimes a source will prove itself so unreliable as to actually damage any hope of conversation.

On the other side of this, the UN are a pretty good source when it comes to the conflict.



You are perfectly fine to focus on dozens of singular incidents that paint a certain picture, but are not representative of the overall conflict or MO of a certain side.
And if you think that the UN with its in-built majority against Israel and especially UNRWA are good sources, that is ok too. But I'd rather look at the grand scheme and compare data from this conflict to similar ones.

Hence, I have no issues to point out that Hamas is deliberately targeting civilians as this is well-documented by neutral sources as well as Hamas themselves, who broadcasted their barbarism live when it happened, while denying the same intention for Israel, as the numbers do not indicate it.
And while I never claimed that Israel's side never did anything wrong (quite contrary, I denounced and condemned all of the proven war crimes that happened) as I don't believe it, people seem to forget that this is a war. And horrible things simply happen in wars. A lot.

On October 14 2024 20:25 Salazarz wrote:
On October 14 2024 20:17 PremoBeats wrote:
On October 14 2024 20:06 Salazarz wrote:
Which of the things I've listed aren't happening?

Wouldn't it be nice if you answered the questions that I posed several times now first?


No it wouldn't, because if you're going to pretend the things I'm talking about aren't real then there's no reason to engage with you in good faith.

The side that is saying that a genocide or deliberate starvation targeted at the Gazan population is happening are not pretending that things that do not happen are actually happening? Is that not a sign of bad faith?

Ethnic cleansing. I believe it is happening, once the hostages have been freed and the Israelis are actually forcing the Gazans out of Palestine.

How can you do this if you dismiss testimony and various sources of data out of hand?

That aside I don’t think there are too many comparable conflicts. Whether Israel’s numbers re civilian casualties are reasonable or not I’m not sure can be ascertained in this manner.

There are few conflicts I’m aware of with such a huge power disparity, level of military sophistication etc. Where it’s effectively shooting fish in a barrel in a pretty small geographic area if you so fancy it.

This isn’t to say that attempting a comparison is a fruitless exercise, I just don’t see that many conflicts that have these characteristics, to the degree we’re approaching apples and oranges territory.



Which testimonies and data do you mean?
Perhaps I haven't made myself clear: I don't deny that horrible things, mistakes and actual war crimes happened.
I am rather posing questions if they simply paint a picture that is truly representative of the whole conflict (hence before I spoke of dozens of singular instances... I don't deny them. I simply question how much they represent the whole conflict of thousands of encounters weekly).

I used the civilian casualty rate before to counter the claims of "genocide" and "deliberate targeting of Palestinian civilians". These allegations simply make no sense when we compare civilian casualty rates with similar conflicts, where the IDF fares much better than other factions, despite Hamas' human shield tactics.
Things like Israelis forcing Palestinians into tunnels to check for booby traps happened nevertheless. Or attacks on humanitarian convoys for whatever reasons. But my point is, that all of this is happening in each and every war and that Israel is faring much better than other factions in comparison, despite the hurdles that are unique to Gaza.

And the power dynamic - in my opinion - is completely irrelevant, if the inferior side keeps attacking. I don't know if you read my stance on this before, but I think, that to surrender or not re-engage is the responsibility of the inferior force (in this context: let the hostages go and stop fighting immediately).
And it is the responsibility of the superior force to present conditions and terms that prevent escalation in the future (see Versailles. In this context: de-settlement, plans for bringing infrastructure to Gaza).
Israel is stronger by far, but it cannot leave the targeted attack on civilians, mass abduction and displacement go without doing anything - no country could. And I wouldn't even mind, if Hamas was fighting only for the freedom of Gazans and attacking military targets.
But they don't. They disregard the needs of their population to fight a war of terror against the state that they want to eradicate with the support of other Islamic extremist groups.

And I think my stance is the reason, people hardly engage with me.
They cannot answer what Israel should have done after October 7th, except put ALL blame on them and dodging the question.
They cannot answer how to get rid of Hamas in Gaza, which is the primary hurdle that stands in the way of a more prosperous Gaza as 2007 and onward have shown.
They also cannot answer what to do about the over 100 hostages if Israel goes along with their suggestion of an immediate cease-fire.
Because there are no easy solutions.

But what similar conflicts are there? I’ve posited this about 5 separate times in this thread, while you answer other things thoroughly to be fair. But you’re complaining about not having people engage you, I’ve engaged you on this point multiple times.

The power asymmetry is quite impactful, as is the sophisticated hardware component.

Two factions of vaguely equivalent military capability, at least in a sophistication level if not in numbers, who go actually toe to toe in a civil war, where they don’t have some of the most advanced military kit going are almost invariably going to do more damage to the civilian population.

Two 11 year olds throwing haymakers might do each other a fair amount of damage. Whereas I, as a 34 year old man don’t have to beat the shit out of my 11 year old if he hits me.

I just don’t think there are particularly equivalent conflicts with which to set some benchmark and judge Israel versus said benchmark.

I mean what’s the comparison with civilian casualties in Iraq or Afghanistan caused by the ‘coalition of the willing’? I don’t think that’s a particularly equivalent conflict, outside of a gigantic military tech superiority, and I stand by my previous statements that there aren’t really particularly comparable conflicts.

I’ve also heard people say ‘what if the British just bombed the shit out of Northern Ireland to try and root out the IRA’, which I think is ridiculous as well, it didn’t happen and also as much as we like to wail about the Troubles over here it’s not even remotely in the same ballpark as this conflict.

What should Israel have done post October 7th? It’s unpalatable but I agree that it’s effectively inconceivable they don’t respond in some fashion. My issue is primarily with policy during ‘peacetime’, and the sheer extent of their response.

If how to get rid of Hamas was a simple solution, the international community could have figured it out by now. I, as a humble Liquidian doesn’t have much of a shot.

I’m not Israeli, I’m not particularly sympathetic to Israelis beyond equal opportunity empathy. What to do about 100 hostages isn’t to kill tens of thousands of civilians. However, I know this kind of attitude isn’t realistic for their compatriots, much less their loved ones. Rare indeed is the soul who would abandon their nearest and dearest for the greater utilitarian good, so it’s not something I’m too judgemental on. Especially as my nation alongside the US blazed an incredibly destructive trail through the Middle East, destabilised the region etc effectively for impotent revenge.

And I do have some sympathy with Israel in some domains, just not in their dealings with the Palestinian people. They may couch it in solidarity but I don’t really buy it when it comes to an Iran, or Hezbollah


I thought I came back to you all of these times, but perhaps I overlooked it.

On topic: In my opinion in terms of population density and the urban warfare aspects, the following are comparable:

Mosul 1:4 to 1:5 (1 soldier to 4 to 5 civilians killed)
Aleppo 1:4
Grozny 1:10
Beirut 1:3 to 1:5
Sarajevo 1:3 to 1:4

These are the metrics that let us compare a warring faction's efficiency when taking out enemy combatants.
The total numbers of deaths are approximated at 42k. These include all deaths, even natural ones and the ones that can be attributed to Hamas due to misguided missiles hitting Gazan cities or the direct attacks on fleeing Gazans in peace corridors (so they won't be singled out by the IDF).
The natural death rate in Gaza is 0,5% yearly, meaning around 1000 deaths are natural. As of recent reports, it is estimated that hundreds have been killed by misguided rockets or direct fire of Hamas. But let’s ignore those and go with 41k deaths that are caused by the IDF. 17k were terrorists killed, which leaves 24k civilians (although this number can be disputed as well for several reasons, but let's not go too deep, as this will suffice to make my point).
The IDF has achieved a rate of 1:1.41, being deeply below each and every other comparable conflict when talking about urban warfare in densely populated areas.
But you can't forget the human shield tactics by Hamas, which make this rate even more commendable. In my opinion, even going even with similar conflicts under the special circumstances prevalent in Gaza would be insanely good.

And yes, the power asymmetry is impactful, but it doesn't say anything about how the actual ground war plays out - see Vietcong versus USA for example.

If you say that the more sophisticated or stronger power will probably do more damage to civilians, I agree - especially in Urban warfare. Even more reason for the weaker force to tread carefully and not provoke all-out war (unless that is exactly what they tried to accomplish, which seems pretty plausible, looking at their human shield tactics and year long neglect of their population).
But the key question still is:
What should the stronger force do, if planes are hijacked, civilians of the stronger force are abducted or when the weaker force crosses a line only the stronger force is able to draw, as they are a sovereign entity?

Your comparison to the IRA, in my opinion, falls short on several levels, but if I understood your argument correctly, your concern mostly breaks down to proportionality, right?
100 hostages versus 41k dead Palestinians.

But this comparison in my opinion isn't only about the victims of October 7th or comparing casualties. It is also about the nature of the threat posed by Hamas.
Hamas is committed to the destruction of Israel and regularly targets Israeli civilians. The October 7th attack demonstrated that this threat is not hypothetical as over 1k Israelis and global citizens were killed, and hundreds were taken hostage in a brutal, large-scale assault aimed specifically at civilians.
Any country facing a terrorist organization that has launched large-scale attacks, taken hostages, and threatens its very existence would respond with military force - this cannot be denied. The fact that 42k Palestinians have died is tragic, but from Israel’s perspective, the goal is not to exact revenge but to dismantle the military infrastructure of Hamas, which endangers both Israeli and Palestinian lives.
Proportionality in conflict is further not purely about numbers; it’s about whether the force used is necessary to achieve legitimate military objectives. The aim of Israel’s military operations is to destroy Hamas’s ability to continue launching attacks and retrieve the hostages, which requires significant action given Hamas’s deep entrenchment in Gaza. The civilian casualty rate is also influenced by the way Hamas embeds itself within civilian populations and - as shown above - is still far better than in comparable conflicts.
As such, the disproportionate numbers reflect the reality of a conflict where one side, Hamas, initiates large-scale violence but lacks the military capacity to inflict similar numbers of casualties. If Israel wouldn’t have such sophisticated defenses, we all know that it would be long gone.

Perhaps, taking the war route is the only way to get rid of Hamas. So far, no one proposed another solution, except leaving them be, which is neither a good choice for Israel nor the Gazans, as with Hamas, peace won’t be on the table (unlike the PA, Hamas does not accept Israel).
I neither am Israeli, but was a rather staunch defender of Palestine in the past (back when I traveled the Middle East in 2009). My opinion has changed, once I analyzed this conflict and war in general deeper. That doesn't mean that I lost my sympathy for Palestinians, but rather gained some for Israel. Both face incredible difficulties, but it is much easier to side against Israel if one has little knowledge about war or the specifics of this conflict in my opinion, as Israel is watched extremely closely and supposed neutral observers like UNRWA or UNIFIL are far from being neutral, given all the things that were uncovered in the past years.

Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12172 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-10-16 10:18:37
October 16 2024 10:12 GMT
#7113
Since I'm at work and I have nothing better to do I thought I'd compile some responses to this that you pretended not to get, so that they are in a single post and I can refer to it in the future if someone honest posts the same type of arguments. I'll write "Shoka" by Ado here so that I can search the post, also Ado is awesome go listen to her.

- It is generally not a good idea to compare the casualties of an ongoing conflict to estimates of conflicts that have ended. A lot of dead people's deaths won't be reported while the war is still going on. The true number of casualties in Gaza is very likely to be much bigger than what is reported by the Hamas ministry: studies from Lancet (186000) or Brown University (121000) are indications of the numbers you may have to defend in the future.

- In casualties of war, the number of men that are killed tends to be much larger than the number of women that are killed, which is explained by the fact that men partake in a lot of dangerous activities more than women do (fighting sure, but also looking for survivors and so on). The fact that at some points of the conflict women made up 50% of the reported deaths in Gaza requires an explanation. That explanation can either be that we are missing a large amount of dead people, or that Israel is bombing way more indiscriminantly than what happens traditionally. Or, you know, both, which is of course what is happening.

- The number of women killed is also a problem when it comes to the civilian vs fighter casualty rate, as you would need to believe at the same time that Israel was so imprecise when it comes to killing women that it killed a way larger proportion of them than an average war does, but so precise when it comes to killing men that it killed a way smaller proportion of civilian men than an average war does. Again, this doesn't play, and the explanations overlap: almost all of the dead that are in the gap between the 40000 dead and the true number will be civilians, cause Israel has a good sense of the Hamas militants it kills, so some of those missing civilian men will be there, but also Israel, like every other party in a conflict ever, probably has a loose definition of what constitutes a terrorist, and will declare that many of the civilians it killed were fighters just because it makes their deaths easier to justify.

- Again I'll urge you to ask yourself, what is a number of dead Palestinians that would make you consider the possibility that Israel isn't all you claim it to be? And if you can't find a good answer there, why do you reckon there's a relevance to the current number being, in your opinion, too low to care? If it was high, you wouldn't care either.
No will to live, no wish to die
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4091 Posts
October 16 2024 11:01 GMT
#7114
The argument is this:
"Horrible atrocities were committed in other wars, too. That makes the current atrocities ok because we expect atrocities to be committed in war. Also, Hamas. Did I say Hamas yet?"
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4091 Posts
October 16 2024 14:28 GMT
#7115
No worries though, Israel is investigating itself. A Hamas command center was precisely targeted and that's why only one hospital compound was burned down in its entirety. And a large number of tents. Could've been a lot worse if more human shields were present.

https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-hezbollah-lebanon-un-iran-hamas-latest-sky-news-live-12978800?postid=8450695#liveblog-body
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
KT_Elwood
Profile Joined July 2015
Germany942 Posts
October 17 2024 11:21 GMT
#7116
On October 16 2024 20:01 Magic Powers wrote:
The argument is this:
"Horrible atrocities were committed in other wars, too. That makes the current atrocities ok because we expect atrocities to be committed in war. Also, Hamas. Did I say Hamas yet?"


You might be close to a breakthrough here. You only need to drop the idea of comparing wars and other wars.

War in general sucks. There is no good war, and no just war.

The reasons why you start/enter a war.. might be good and just.. but the procedure isn't.

There is no stopping israel at the moment, and iran isn't holding back it's minions.

"First he eats our dogs, and then he taxes the penguins... Donald Trump truly is the Donald Trump of our generation. " -DPB
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4091 Posts
October 17 2024 11:35 GMT
#7117
On October 17 2024 20:21 KT_Elwood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 16 2024 20:01 Magic Powers wrote:
The argument is this:
"Horrible atrocities were committed in other wars, too. That makes the current atrocities ok because we expect atrocities to be committed in war. Also, Hamas. Did I say Hamas yet?"


You might be close to a breakthrough here. You only need to drop the idea of comparing wars and other wars.

War in general sucks. There is no good war, and no just war.

The reasons why you start/enter a war.. might be good and just.. but the procedure isn't.

There is no stopping israel at the moment, and iran isn't holding back it's minions.



"The reason why I killed your entire family as well as the families in your neighborhood might be good and just, just the procedure isn't."

Lets just ignore that you ever said that and move on.


So aid was delivered just fine by truck drivers for almost a year according to the graph, but now suddenly they're refusing to go in? The excuses are baffling on so many levels.

https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-hezbollah-lebanon-un-iran-hamas-latest-sky-news-live-12978800?postid=8452414#liveblog-body
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
KT_Elwood
Profile Joined July 2015
Germany942 Posts
October 17 2024 11:47 GMT
#7118
On October 16 2024 23:28 Magic Powers wrote:
No worries though, Israel is investigating itself. A Hamas command center was precisely targeted and that's why only one hospital compound was burned down in its entirety. And a large number of tents. Could've been a lot worse if more human shields were present.

https://news.sky.com/story/israel-gaza-hezbollah-lebanon-un-iran-hamas-latest-sky-news-live-12978800?postid=8450695#liveblog-body


https://hhi.harvard.edu/publications/legitimate-targets-attacks-under-international-humanitarian-law

If a target is used for military activity it becomes a legit military target under international humanitarian law.

Interpretation varies for word salad. Of course no war would benefit the civilians the most.. but that's not how the force works.

If there were combatants present or even used the area for staging, it's pretty clear that they legitimize attacks.

Direct actions of war (firing or surveillance from a position) clearly negate any and all considerations for the presveration of non-combatants, since it is a "war crime" in itself to endanger non combatants in this way.

I hope Hamas would give up gaza and by that move would totally shift the responsibility for humanitarian aid over to israel.


"First he eats our dogs, and then he taxes the penguins... Donald Trump truly is the Donald Trump of our generation. " -DPB
KT_Elwood
Profile Joined July 2015
Germany942 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-10-17 12:31:05
October 17 2024 12:06 GMT
#7119
On October 17 2024 20:35 Magic Powers wrote:

"The reason why I killed your entire family as well as the families in your neighborhood might be good and just, just the procedure isn't."

Lets just ignore that you ever said that and move on.



You seem to understand perfectly, why don't you draw the conclusion?

---> "War sucks" <--

And the attempt to discuss which parts of the war are just and which are not is just futile.

I may have worked with russians who now are no conscript/dissident wormfodder in jails or ukraine. I may have not existed if US-soldiers would have mistaken my grandparents for combatants and shot them off their bikes.. as they did with many other children in WWII.

Usually the poeple experiencing the war aren't willing to continue .. and they are most likely not the ones in need of pseudo interlectual discussions of failed philosphers of how their suffering is justified or not.
"First he eats our dogs, and then he taxes the penguins... Donald Trump truly is the Donald Trump of our generation. " -DPB
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4091 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-10-17 13:58:24
October 17 2024 13:58 GMT
#7120
On October 17 2024 21:06 KT_Elwood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2024 20:35 Magic Powers wrote:

"The reason why I killed your entire family as well as the families in your neighborhood might be good and just, just the procedure isn't."

Lets just ignore that you ever said that and move on.



You seem to understand perfectly, why don't you draw the conclusion?

---> "War sucks" <--

And the attempt to discuss which parts of the war are just and which are not is just futile.

I may have worked with russians who now are no conscript/dissident wormfodder in jails or ukraine. I may have not existed if US-soldiers would have mistaken my grandparents for combatants and shot them off their bikes.. as they did with many other children in WWII.

Usually the poeple experiencing the war aren't willing to continue .. and they are most likely not the ones in need of pseudo interlectual discussions of failed philosphers of how their suffering is justified or not.


Speak for yourself. I have no difficulty whatsoever determining which side(s) is/are in the wrong for which reasons. Your troubles stem from your own inadequacy. Research more, better and deeper and you can find the truth, too. I've put in the hours and my moral compass is working just fine, so I come to the conclusion that, no, not all war is equal. War can be fought with good ethics in mind, and war can be fought with brutality in mind. Israel has chosen brutality. It's not hard to see.
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
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