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On March 26 2020 10:45 Starlightsun wrote: I wish our news would give percentages and test numbers more often. They just say "x amount of new cases today", but not out of how many tested. Is that 50 percent? 10 percent? Are they even testing many people? It's meaningless to just give a daily tally of positive tests.
I believe the official sources are saying both numbers(tested, new cases), but media will report only the tested number growth. Or at least that's what happens in here, sadly More sensational to report just the sick growth
On March 26 2020 15:31 Furikawari wrote: Overall it looks like the reported numbers are a joke. In France currently very few people are tested (as everywhere else, no capacity), same rhetoric bullshit used by officials to justify this. In the end, people tested are the one for wich the disease is more or less obvious. Even the death numbers are a joke: only people that died in an hospital are reported. Elderly that die per dozens in institutions are not taken into account in the french numbers (media started to talk about it early this week, since then the government said they will add those numbers next week...)! So yeah, just forget about the numbers and stay safe. Not sick, no complication, no complication no hospital. It's better for you and also better for everyone else.
The article directly specifies that only the people who are dying in hospitals are counted which is not the case for the deads in the structures for old people.
Here's some compilation of Orange Man interviews as time progressed during the outbreak. Stuff like that goes down in history (and usually as an example of its darker side).
I wonder if he's so far removed from reality or they simply downplay it as to not cause a panic. In my opinion it actually gives more cause for panic because they keep saying it's OK, under control, will be resolved soon etc. and all the reports directly contradict each and every one of those statements...
On March 26 2020 15:31 Furikawari wrote: Overall it looks like the reported numbers are a joke. In France currently very few people are tested (as everywhere else, no capacity), same rhetoric bullshit used by officials to justify this. In the end, people tested are the one for wich the disease is more or less obvious. Even the death numbers are a joke: only people that died in an hospital are reported. Elderly that die per dozens in institutions are not taken into account in the french numbers (media started to talk about it early this week, since then the government said they will add those numbers next week...)! So yeah, just forget about the numbers and stay safe. Not sick, no complication, no complication no hospital. It's better for you and also better for everyone else.
Tbh it's not deliberate, but that in the midst of the crisis they haven't had reliable information from the ehpad. It's not always easy to be certain that a 96 old guy died from this illness or that one.
The government talks therefore of "morts en milieu hospitalier" and has been open about that. And they are working on collecting the missing data.
On March 26 2020 19:02 Kipsate wrote: Bit confused as to what metrics countries are and should be steering on. Pretty much every country due to their own situation seems to have their own way of reporting and handling the situation.
Infections/positive tests seems wrong due to limited capacity with the exception of Germany/SKorea probably? Is it % of growth of ICU beds needed? Is it % of deaths or deaths? Is it % of hospitalized people?
I am not so sure how accurately you can extrapolate from positive tests. How will we know that measures work and what measures don't? Now obviously this is a data bitch, so what gives us our best guess?
At a government level obviously they have people with the education and experience to handle that for every individual country and also try to compare to other countries (apples to oranges). Sometimes they make the decisions, most of often it's politicians that may or may not listen to them. But usually their expert opinion can be found somewhere.
As an individual what you are interested in is: Is healthcare overloaded or cooping (near me)? That could potentially be measured as ICU utilization (cases in ICU/number of ICU beds available). And also of course is it getting better or worse? Which is just the above over time.
For most countries your local government will tell you this every day and much more. I just listened to our regions press conference that is at 10 and then at 14 it's for the entire country. It should give you all the answers you want.
I'm just going to echo this-as an epidemiologist your #1 resource as far as utility will be your local (maaaybe state/regional) health department. What advice are they giving, and what resources do they have, and what are their official policies re: infection. They have access to more information than you do and have a better sense of the context. It is frustrating to trust them when they say "we won't test you and you need to stay home" but starting from a position of trust in these kinds of situations can be very important.
The way the data needs to be combined and adjusted to make any sort of meaningful comparisons across regions (and DEFINITELY across countries) is such that people should only really be using numbers as within-region/country comparisons like "we are seeing a 1.2-1.3x increase in confirmed cases daily with a 1.2x increase in tests and a 1.2x increase in fatalities." Right now the "top 10" country/region list is a function of many things, with "actual COVID-19 infection rate among the population" being just one part. It is tempting to turn things into a horserace, but doing so beyond broad strokes is difficult to impossible and-more importantly-is unlikely to actually improve your or your family's outcomes.
3.3 million Americans have gone unemployed according to The Guardian.
A record 3.3 million people filed claims for unemployment in the US last week as the Covid-19 pandemic shut down large parts of America’s economy.
According to the labor department, the number of new jobless claims filed by individuals seeking unemployment benefits rose by more than 3 million to 3.28 million from 281,000 the previous week. The figure is the highest ever reported, beating the previous record of 695,000 claims filed the week ending 2 October 1982.
Switzerland just did the following to save it's small and middle businesses:
300 Banks grant credits at a 0% interest rate. Credits under 500'000$ are fully guaranteed by the swiss state, credits from 500'000 - 20'000'000 are 85% guaranteed. The Banks aren't allowed to bill comissions or anything of the sort. There won't be big background checks and bank should be generous when giving out these credits. The credits are due for payback in 5 years (7 years in special cases). Only restriction for the companies is, that they aren't allowed to pay out dividends or tantiemen before they haven't paid back the credit.
I'm actually quite baffled by the sheer scale of this and how, apparently, unbuerocratic it should all run.
On March 26 2020 19:02 Kipsate wrote: Bit confused as to what metrics countries are and should be steering on. Pretty much every country due to their own situation seems to have their own way of reporting and handling the situation.
Infections/positive tests seems wrong due to limited capacity with the exception of Germany/SKorea probably? Is it % of growth of ICU beds needed? Is it % of deaths or deaths? Is it % of hospitalized people?
I am not so sure how accurately you can extrapolate from positive tests. How will we know that measures work and what measures don't? Now obviously this is a data bitch, so what gives us our best guess?
I personally think the Infections/1000 tests is probably the best measure of how well a country is getting ahead of the infection rate. If a high percentage of those you're testing are positive, it's likely spreading that some of those tested have interacted with people which you haven't tested. Tracing who infected people have interacted with, and cutting the infection chain seems to be the most successful method by far of containing the virus. Containing it when the total number of infected people is in the hundreds or low thousands is possible, but gets increasingly hard as the total infected count rises.
On March 26 2020 19:02 Kipsate wrote: Bit confused as to what metrics countries are and should be steering on. Pretty much every country due to their own situation seems to have their own way of reporting and handling the situation.
Infections/positive tests seems wrong due to limited capacity with the exception of Germany/SKorea probably? Is it % of growth of ICU beds needed? Is it % of deaths or deaths? Is it % of hospitalized people?
I am not so sure how accurately you can extrapolate from positive tests. How will we know that measures work and what measures don't? Now obviously this is a data bitch, so what gives us our best guess?
I personally think the Infections/1000 tests is probably the best measure of how well a country is getting ahead of the infection rate. If a high percentage of those you're testing are positive, it's likely spreading that some of those tested have interacted with people which you haven't tested. Tracing who infected people have interacted with, and cutting the infection chain seems to be the most successful method by far of containing the virus. Containing it when the total number of infected people is in the hundreds or low thousands is possible, but gets increasingly hard as the total infected count rises.
That measure is going to be biased by the tendency (or lack thereof) to only test people who are on death's door. If you only test people who have severe pneumonia, you will get a lot of positives; if the test is publicly available for anyone who wants it your positive ratio will be much lower.
I think death rate is just about the most unbiased indicator we have. You can probably extrapolate with reasonable accuracy how many people were infected two weeks ago based on how many people died today, if you take China's death ratio per age group as a strong estimate of the real result.
If the positives/1000 stat is high, it means a lot of infected people aren't tested, if you have a high score there and a high score on tests/million, it means you've tested a lot and there are still a lot of infected people. A high tested score and low positives/1000 means you're dealing reasonably well (at least for the moment).
Does seem to be a strong correlation between the combination of these two and death rate - but the death rate lags a bit behind. Looking at New York for example, they have tests/million at 6,277 and positives/1000 at 305 - these numbers are worse than all of Italy added up (but better than the Lombardy region), however the death rate is still much lower. However, as more people hit week 2-3 of infection (generalized/simplified, it seems like week 1 is more asymptomatic, week 2 symptoms show but are milder, week 3 is where the pneumonia and lung destruction happens if that happens), and this likely leading to hospitals struggling, and then the death rate starts going up.
I guess in a way they just show different things, though.
On March 27 2020 06:31 BigFan wrote: US officially has the most positive cases atm. Overtook Italy and China today with another ~14k positive.
That exponential is really frightening. And given that there's no real solidarity nationally in terms of what the proper level of quarantine is, I think it's going to get significantly worse before it gets better. The current case load is almost certainly a significant underestimate of the reality in the country.
If anything, Trump is probably right about everything ending soon in the US. At this rate the so called "herd immunity" will be achieved in no time... At the cost of a lot of human lives. Hopefully the healthcare system of the biggest economy in the world can handle what is coming.
On March 27 2020 08:05 Pr0wler wrote: If anything, Trump is probably right about everything ending soon in the US. At this rate the so called "herd immunity" will be achieved in no time... At the cost of a lot of human lives. Hopefully the healthcare system of the biggest economy in the world can handle what is coming.
Isn't it private? Unless government treats coronavirus at its expense, I just don't think it's going to end well there.
EPT
More sensational to report just the sick growth 
