EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 456
| Forum Index > General Forum |
Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
| ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases December 16, 2020 - 326,189 January 20, 2021 - 440,212 February 24, 2021 - 527,263 Then it's a simply subtraction problem. 5 weeks preceding - 114,000 5 weeks postceding - 87,000 So even in this weird way where you tried to claim you were technically right, you were still very very wrong. | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
Here's the post I made when Texas announced its reopening in early March Imo the more important question isn't whether we will have herd immunity, it's whether the hospitals will get overrun. 10-20% vaccinated could make all the difference in the world if it's mostly the 65+ year olds that get the sickest from COVID-19. We're vaccinating well over 1MM people a day now and I think that's expected to get even higher. It's also worth mentioning that flu season is basically over now which I would guess is unheard of this early in the year. When you add up all the mitigating factors against COVID-19, i.e. millions vaccinated + millions already infected + social distancing - no flu this year, it's plausible that the impact of COVID-19 going forward could just be as bad as a bad flu season. I literally mentioned social distancing and vaccines as 2 of the biggest mitigating factors. Pretty bizarre of me to hope everyone gets vaccinated if I already believed they have "natural herd immumity" don't you think? | ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
Acrofales
Spain18131 Posts
| ||
|
BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
On September 08 2021 11:10 JimmiC wrote: Yes you theorize that with 10-20% vaccinated and no measures (asking people to social distance is not a measure lol) it won't be worse than the flu, then you come back to gloat that you were right. And then you bragged multiple times about how right you were that natural immunity + vaccination immunity ended covid. The rest of us thought you needed more like 80% vaccination with whatever natural because knowing how many that is near impossible as is knowing its efficacy. You were very wrong, hospitals are over run in many states Texas included. Because they are way over 10-20% and you have yourself a 4th wave that is putting more people and younger in the hospital. So do you now agree that it will take far more than 10-20% vaccinated and natural immunity to stop covid? Do you also see now why those measures that stopped the peak in Jan (no it was not natural immunity) were necessary and why some might be necessary again? On March 03 2021 11:07 JimmiC wrote: I guess we will see, the health experts appear to disagree that your theory is plausible. https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/02/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html In 6-8 weeks we will know more. It seems odd to go to 100% back to normal at this point but maybe this will be the time when the experts are wrong. 6-8 weeks later deaths were near 0. 24 weeks later they have a wave from a different variant. I already conceded that I couldn't predict a more infections variant would come around that the vaccines were less effective against. That still doesn't mean Texas was wrong to reopen when it did during Alpha-COVID. | ||
|
Lmui
Canada6215 Posts
On September 08 2021 14:20 Acrofales wrote: Anybody other than Blackjack or JimmyC got something to say? Anything at all. It is guaranteed to be more interesting than this dick measuring contest that should have been in DMs 3 pages ago. Not really much I guess. Some topics of conversation: In Portugal's something like 98+% of eligible people have gotten at least one shot of some vaccine which is frankly amazing. Unless it's compulsory, almost no other nation will reach that threshold any time soon. They have a fair mix of vaccines too, so it'll be interesting to see what the results are in a couple months. Cases are dropping there slowly, so it seems somewhere in the low 80s (roughly) of your population fully vaccinated will be enough to slow the pandemic to a crawl. Most nations aren't reaching this figure without children, so it'll be a long fall/winter. My local neighbourhood has reached 93% of eligible people vaccinated, 85% fully vaccinated, and I have my vaccine passport ready to go. We're seeing local cases at a low sustained level (4 cases/100k people/day), with nearby areas in the double digits. Not zero, but low. Vaccines work, but aren't quite bulletproof at this level yet. I have a vaccine passport now. It errs pretty far on the ease of use side. It's a color coded page with my vaccination status and name. Depending on the level of checking a place wants to enforce, it can be: 1. Check that a passport exists 2. Check that a passport exists, and scans successfully in the app 3. Check that a passport exists and scans successfully in the app. Compare name on passport to some other form of ID (membership, gov't ID etc.) I expect that 1, or 2 are going to be par for the course at most restaurants/cinemas etc. The barrier to entry is not meant to be super high, it's just meant to be a stick. There will be people faking 1 and 2, either with photoshopped, or shared passport images and getting access to things they shouldn't, but this is good enough as a stick for most places. Places with bouncers/memberships can do 3 (gyms etc for instance). | ||
|
Geisterkarle
Germany3257 Posts
On September 08 2021 14:20 Acrofales wrote: Anybody other than Blackjack or JimmyC got something to say? Anything at all. It is guaranteed to be more interesting than this dick measuring contest that should have been in DMs 3 pages ago. Well, not much new happening in the world... But maybe a "question": Last week a good friend didn't react to a message from me, if she wanted to go out  and then I saw new pictures in her WA-status; she is in Belgium! Ah, those vacationers! But this week she told me, that was not a holiday! She did "home"office there! Is this something people did in the "before times"? Or could this be a "new way of working"? | ||
|
GreenHorizons
United States23489 Posts
It typically brings ~1,000,000 people through the gates over the course of it. No vaccine or test requirement but there is a mask "mandate" indoors and outdoors that seems to be largely voluntary/unenforced. I understand the desire to go back to having stuff like this, but it'd be nice if it wasn't done so poorly. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain18131 Posts
On September 08 2021 15:04 Geisterkarle wrote: Well, not much new happening in the world... But maybe a "question": Last week a good friend didn't react to a message from me, if she wanted to go out and then I saw new pictures in her WA-status; she is in Belgium! Ah, those vacationers! But this week she told me, that was not a holiday! She did "home"office there! Is this something people did in the "before times"? Or could this be a "new way of working"? I know people who did remote work before Covid, but it's definitely something that has exploded since then. In my team alone there are 5 people who decided living in/near Barcelona didn't make sense if they didn't need to for their job. 2 went to Tenerife, 1 to Ibiza and 2 to be near family in Valencia. There are whole towns/provinces gearing up to become remote work destinations, advertising their excellent internet infrastructure, nature/beach location and cheap rent. However, leaving Spain entirely isn't possible due to tax purposes: earning a wage in Spain requires you to be a Spanish resident, so you have to (officially) live here more than 6 months a year. I'm guessing other countries have similar laws. Even so, I'm guessing that we'll soon have English remote working communities popping up in Murcia right next to the retirement communities that have already been there for a while. Maybe they can share the pub? | ||
|
Ciaus_Dronu
South Africa1848 Posts
Honestly I am overall really impressed with how South Africa has handled this. I think, given the massive immuno-compromised population segment and already stressed healthcare system, that the first year or so of the pandemic could have gone a lot worse for us. It's still been bad, but that was always going to be the case. The vaccine rollout has also been executed pretty well, at least in the cities. | ||
|
Silvanel
Poland4733 Posts
On September 08 2021 16:22 Acrofales wrote: I know people who did remote work before Covid, but it's definitely something that has exploded since then. In my team alone there are 5 people who decided living in/near Barcelona didn't make sense if they didn't need to for their job. 2 went to Tenerife, 1 to Ibiza and 2 to be near family in Valencia. There are whole towns/provinces gearing up to become remote work destinations, advertising their excellent internet infrastructure, nature/beach location and cheap rent. However, leaving Spain entirely isn't possible due to tax purposes: earning a wage in Spain requires you to be a Spanish resident, so you have to (officially) live here more than 6 months a year. I'm guessing other countries have similar laws. Even so, I'm guessing that we'll soon have English remote working communities popping up in Murcia right next to the retirement communities that have already been there for a while. Maybe they can share the pub? This is something i am contemplating myself. Switching to fully remote and living near leak or in mountains. | ||
|
Geisterkarle
Germany3257 Posts
But going to another country for a week and working there during the day and having a nice "vacation" in the evening is a different thing! | ||
|
Velr
Switzerland10811 Posts
I can stay at home and go out all night if i want to from home office. Remote work for sure has grown a lot since Covid but it's not "new". Btw: Switzerland just announced --> After monday you will have to show a covid-certificate (basically vaccine passport) to get into restaurants/indoor public rooms but in exchange the mask mandate is lifted in these areas. So they are basically forcing vaccines whiteout forcing them ^^. | ||
|
DyEnasTy
United States3714 Posts
Just yesterday I went to a house to install a new floor in a bathroom. I always wear my mask (despite how locals treat masks and vaccines) and the gentleman answering the door steps way back and says dont come any closer, we have covid badly. The guy looked like death walking. Mid 30s, fit looking individual. Had no color in his skin and was caked in sweat. He said the chills and fever were the worst experience of his life. His family was waiting for FDA approval before getting vaxxed and had just signed up to get the shot when they came down with the virus. Noooo thank you, I do not want to even remotely chance getting this thing. My wife and I are fully vaxxed with the moderna shot, but our kids are not. And I have family and friends with kids who got the virus and told me how horrible it was. Unfortunately for my rural and remote area (north central Idaho) people here have a very DGAF attitude. I live in the least vaccinated county in all of Idaho, and no matter how bad things get most people dont care at all. | ||
|
Elroi
Sweden5599 Posts
| ||
|
DyEnasTy
United States3714 Posts
On September 09 2021 06:23 Elroi wrote: Dyenasty, the vaccine doesn't prevent you from getting the disease (it reduces the likelihood of that happening by around 50% if you're exposed iirc). But the point is that it prevents you from becoming very ill. So it's not rational to be afraid of the disease for yourself once you've been vaccinated. (But it is rational to be afraid of spreading it to someone who isn't vaccinated.) I know we can still get the virus even though were vaccinated. I dont want to spread it to my kids who are not vaccinated. And my youngest doesnt have a very strong immune system to begin with. I dont want to chance it. | ||
| ||
