Coronavirus and You - Page 405
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25514 Posts
On July 18 2021 23:55 sharkie wrote: You can't keep people closed in during summer with everyone knowing winter wont be better You don’t have to do that though. You can still get to a modicum of normality without say, going fuck it and opening big sporting events etc, and at least in England dropping precautions being compulsory. | ||
sharkie
Austria18423 Posts
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
This might be a personal opinion of mine but virtually all my anecdotal evidence supports the above statement. Only barring the Christmas carol singing in the stadium. | ||
sharkie
Austria18423 Posts
![]() What i am saying is the people would have gathered and drank (if allowed) with an event or with no event. | ||
Malinor
Germany4728 Posts
On July 18 2021 23:01 WombaT wrote: Who could have possibly predicted this would happen? It’s quite frustrating, yeah Covid times haven’t been fun for many but we couldn’t hold on a few months longer? It’s like running 25 miles of a marathon and then going ‘fuck it, I’m going home’ at the last stretch. "Hold on for a few weeks/months longer" is what has been told to the German people from November 20 up to May 21. Things opened up in June, so if you close down again in August or something, why would people choose to believe you? Especially since information is updated all the time: "herd immunity at 70%" "herd immunity at 80%" "herd immunity at 85%" A first model came out last week that said 95%. Different narrative: We have to beat Alpha, then we are through. Now we have Delta, how do you go with the same narrative again? Why would people have any confidence, that this cycle does not repeat over and over? In Germany we have now the situation that more vaccine is available than what is needed. So everyone could be vaccinated within 6-8 weeks. So with all that going on, keeping people locked up for some more time does not seem like a reasonable narrative at all. UK had this super strict lockdown starting from January, but they were always told that it will all be worth it so that come June things go back to normal. This was already postponed for one more month. How do you sell not lifting the restrictions to anyone anymore? I mean yeah, I would keep masks in place, have events be at like 20% capacity or something. Seems like a foolish way to lift everything (maybe that is exactly what you meant, not trying to create a strawman). Anyway, for me it seems pretty clear that this is not "just a few more months", regardless of where and how. This thing is going to stay relevant for at least 1-2 more years and will kill a lot of people, regardless of what we do. I believe you can only try to prevent the real tragedies like in India or Italy. | ||
Silvanel
Poland4731 Posts
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maybenexttime
Poland5597 Posts
On July 19 2021 13:22 Artisreal wrote: Big sporting events that were happening, i.e. football, are at least 50% drinking and shouting and.being idiots all the while. This might be a personal opinion of mine but virtually all my anecdotal evidence supports the above statement. Only barring the Christmas carol singing in the stadium. It's one thing to have packed stadiums but require people to be either vaccinated or have a negative test result. It's another thing to have pubs packed full of young, unvaccinated people. @Malinor How is the information being updated bad or surprising? The situation changes (the virus mutates) and we learn more about it. The herd immunity threshold depends on the value of R0. It was around 2-3 with the original variant, and with Delta it's closer to 6-8. That's a massive difference. Edit: Also, the UK has been pretty much fully open for a few months now. What are you on about? | ||
Acrofales
Spain18017 Posts
On July 19 2021 17:18 Silvanel wrote: Poland is looking to sell some of our vaccines as vaccination rates are dropping hard. Currently we have 42,7% of population vaccinated and it looks like it will stop around 50%. Maybe there will be another wave of vaccinations once summer ends but i doubt it. Sounds like Poland is in trouble then. 50% vaccination is not enough to be useful, so every new variant will just cause another wave of infections. | ||
Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
On July 19 2021 18:19 maybenexttime wrote: It's one thing to have packed stadiums but require people to be either vaccinated or have a negative test result. It's another thing to have pubs packed full of young, unvaccinated people. @Malinor How is the information being updated bad or surprising? The situation changes (the virus mutates) and we learn more about it. The herd immunity threshold depends on the value of R0. It was around 2-3 with the original variant, and with Delta it's closer to 6-8. That's a massive difference. Edit: Also, the UK has been pretty much fully open for a few months now. What are you on about? Yea that's true, I found it not to be the nicest of pictures, but I remember that they were restricting access. Thanks for the reminder. | ||
Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
On July 19 2021 21:51 Acrofales wrote: Sounds like Poland is in trouble then. 50% vaccination is not enough to be useful, so every new variant will just cause another wave of infections. Yeah, every country is hitting this annoying demand issue. Macron is going to force it which im fine with tbh. | ||
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11534 Posts
On July 20 2021 00:06 JimmiC wrote: Globally I think it makes sense to donate to the have nots over force. The wealthier countries for the most part should have the heathcare capacity to deal with surges and then can put in measures (as shitty as they are) to drop it when needed. Many of the have not countries do not, so from human lives saved it makes a lot of sense. Also, the biggest risk to everyone is new more terrible variants and stopping the rampant spread there will do a much better job of lowering that risk than making our countries completely protected. As to the people that keep talking about health officials and doctors chaning their messaging. This is not hypocrisy or them lying. Early on it was them learning new information and getting better and now it is a combo of that and the virus changing. This is not a static situation so the answers are not going to be static, if they were that would be a problem. Yeah, that is such an absurd point of critique. We haven't had a pandemic for 100 years, but people are immediately supposed to get 100% on every detail? At any given point in time, following the messaging was still a lot better than doing nothing (which most of the people who complain about changing messaging generally favor). This is how knowledge acquisition works. Usually you wait for everything to be settled before making huge decisions, but that is not a luxury you have in a pandemic. So you knowingly need to act on limited information, because not doing so would be worse. And that obviously means that you evolve your views and recommendations when new information is done. And yeah. Why force valuable vaccines into the veins of some idiots who don't want them when there are people who would love to have those vaccines in other parts of the world? Make as many vaccines as you can, and give them to those who want them. Only when you completely run out of people who want vaccines worldwide should you even consider forcing people to get vaccinated. | ||
Lmui
Canada6213 Posts
The pandemic doesn't end just because you personally got a vaccine unfortunately. Since everyone in my circle is getting/has gotten 2 doses, it's effectively over for me on a daily level, but there's a long way to go. It's also a helluva lot more efficient to get people vaccinated at a mass vaccination center compared to needing to distribute vaccines to pharmacies or doctors offices to get vaccines in arms. Using doctors to inject vaccines is a waste of public resources. | ||
Sapaio
Denmark2037 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25514 Posts
On July 19 2021 16:48 Malinor wrote: "Hold on for a few weeks/months longer" is what has been told to the German people from November 20 up to May 21. Things opened up in June, so if you close down again in August or something, why would people choose to believe you? Especially since information is updated all the time: "herd immunity at 70%" "herd immunity at 80%" "herd immunity at 85%" A first model came out last week that said 95%. Different narrative: We have to beat Alpha, then we are through. Now we have Delta, how do you go with the same narrative again? Why would people have any confidence, that this cycle does not repeat over and over? In Germany we have now the situation that more vaccine is available than what is needed. So everyone could be vaccinated within 6-8 weeks. So with all that going on, keeping people locked up for some more time does not seem like a reasonable narrative at all. UK had this super strict lockdown starting from January, but they were always told that it will all be worth it so that come June things go back to normal. This was already postponed for one more month. How do you sell not lifting the restrictions to anyone anymore? I mean yeah, I would keep masks in place, have events be at like 20% capacity or something. Seems like a foolish way to lift everything (maybe that is exactly what you meant, not trying to create a strawman). Anyway, for me it seems pretty clear that this is not "just a few more months", regardless of where and how. This thing is going to stay relevant for at least 1-2 more years and will kill a lot of people, regardless of what we do. I believe you can only try to prevent the real tragedies like in India or Italy. Lifting of the restrictions has been handled sillily IMO, granted the English/Scots/Welsh and us over here have differing levels of caution being employed. The English approach is ‘fuck it’ basically, there’s differing levels of circumspection with the other regions. You can’t lock people up forever, absolutely. Life’s alright here, bars and nightlife are open but subject to sensible precautions. There’s little not available in terms of social experiences, although live music has really, really been overly delayed in coming back vs say, sporting events. Is recreational travel abroad without some kind of effective quarantine period worth the risk of dragging new variants in? I’m not sure, time will tell. I would instinctively not feel it particularly wise. | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4335 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11534 Posts
On July 20 2021 05:24 WombaT wrote: Lifting of the restrictions has been handled sillily IMO, granted the English/Scots/Welsh and us over here have differing levels of caution being employed. The English approach is ‘fuck it’ basically, there’s differing levels of circumspection with the other regions. You can’t lock people up forever, absolutely. Life’s alright here, bars and nightlife are open but subject to sensible precautions. There’s little not available in terms of social experiences, although live music has really, really been overly delayed in coming back vs say, sporting events. Is recreational travel abroad without some kind of effective quarantine period worth the risk of dragging new variants in? I’m not sure, time will tell. I would instinctively not feel it particularly wise. I think part of the reason for this is that people don't expect the peace to last. After last year, i think a lot of people got to the conclusion that stuff will go bad even if they act responsible because there are simply too many idiots who don't. And in that situation, if you are responsible, you are the most fucked in the end. You basically lock yourself down partially even in the non-lockdown phases, and then you still get a bad lockdown because other people went all out party. So i can understand getting some fun and relaxation in in the period while the numbers are low or slightly rising, before you are hit with restrictions again. I do in fact feel this impulse myself. Why should I be the only idiot who cares? I am fully vaccinated, so even if i get infected, it probably won't be too bad. Last year, i restricted myself very hard even in the most open periods, but sadly too many people just had to party or go on vacations, so we got a huge wave and months of lockdown instead of actually winning against the disease. And if that is inevitable now, might as well get some social contact in while i still can during the summer. | ||
m4ini
4215 Posts
After last year, i think a lot of people got to the conclusion that stuff will go bad even if they act responsible because there are simply too many idiots who don't. And in that situation, if you are responsible, you are the most fucked in the end. I think Boris Johnson pushed that point over the line quite handily. Not only with the text messages that are coming to light through Cummings, but also his attempt to weasel out of quarantine etc after getting pinged by the already struggling track and trace service - with thousands and thousands of people uninstalling the app straight after. BJ singlehandedly undermines every bit of trust and/or responsibility someone could have. Why give a shit if the guy sitting at the top doesn't? It's utter ridiculous. That said? It's not just BJ. Already plenty of reports from welsh towns along the coast asking the english politely to fuck off back into their petri dish - because they don't appear to be grasping the fact that there certainly are restrictions in place still in wales, causing disruptions. | ||
Slydie
1922 Posts
On July 20 2021 16:12 m4ini wrote: I think Boris Johnson pushed that point over the line quite handily. Not only with the text messages that are coming to light through Cummings, but also his attempt to weasel out of quarantine etc after getting pinged by the already struggling track and trace service - with thousands and thousands of people uninstalling the app straight after. BJ singlehandedly undermines every bit of trust and/or responsibility someone could have. Why give a shit if the guy sitting at the top doesn't? It's utter ridiculous. That said? It's not just BJ. Already plenty of reports from welsh towns along the coast asking the english politely to fuck off back into their petri dish - because they don't appear to be grasping the fact that there certainly are restrictions in place still in wales, causing disruptions. I am very happy BJ moved ahead like this. If it goes badly, we know what to do, if it goes well, we also know what to do. The theory is that previous waves and vaccines are enough to keep serious illness and deaths to an acceptable level despite a full reopening, and he is probably right, depending on what you consider "acceptable". | ||
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