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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On July 20 2021 20:47 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2021 16:12 m4ini wrote:After last year, i think a lot of people got to the conclusion that stuff will go bad even if they act responsible because there are simply too many idiots who don't. And in that situation, if you are responsible, you are the most fucked in the end. I think Boris Johnson pushed that point over the line quite handily. Not only with the text messages that are coming to light through Cummings, but also his attempt to weasel out of quarantine etc after getting pinged by the already struggling track and trace service - with thousands and thousands of people uninstalling the app straight after. BJ singlehandedly undermines every bit of trust and/or responsibility someone could have. Why give a shit if the guy sitting at the top doesn't? It's utter ridiculous. That said? It's not just BJ. Already plenty of reports from welsh towns along the coast asking the english politely to fuck off back into their petri dish - because they don't appear to be grasping the fact that there certainly are restrictions in place still in wales, causing disruptions. I am very happy BJ moved ahead like this. If it goes badly, we know what to do, if it goes well, we also know what to do. The theory is that previous waves and vaccines are enough to keep serious illness and deaths to an acceptable level despite a full reopening, and he is probably right, depending on what you consider "acceptable". The Dutch have tried this already, we know what happens when you fully open up before the youth are vaccinated. A massive pike in infections and reproduction factor of ~3.
While hospitalization and death are sofar not following we have no idea how many are still going to suffer from Long Covid and letting the virus simply rage around risks another variant developing which can obviously have massive consequences if vaccines prove less effective.
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On July 20 2021 23:09 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2021 20:47 Slydie wrote:On July 20 2021 16:12 m4ini wrote:After last year, i think a lot of people got to the conclusion that stuff will go bad even if they act responsible because there are simply too many idiots who don't. And in that situation, if you are responsible, you are the most fucked in the end. I think Boris Johnson pushed that point over the line quite handily. Not only with the text messages that are coming to light through Cummings, but also his attempt to weasel out of quarantine etc after getting pinged by the already struggling track and trace service - with thousands and thousands of people uninstalling the app straight after. BJ singlehandedly undermines every bit of trust and/or responsibility someone could have. Why give a shit if the guy sitting at the top doesn't? It's utter ridiculous. That said? It's not just BJ. Already plenty of reports from welsh towns along the coast asking the english politely to fuck off back into their petri dish - because they don't appear to be grasping the fact that there certainly are restrictions in place still in wales, causing disruptions. I am very happy BJ moved ahead like this. If it goes badly, we know what to do, if it goes well, we also know what to do. The theory is that previous waves and vaccines are enough to keep serious illness and deaths to an acceptable level despite a full reopening, and he is probably right, depending on what you consider "acceptable". The Dutch have tried this already, we know what happens when you fully open up before the youth are vaccinated. A massive pike in infections and reproduction factor of ~3. While hospitalization and death are sofar not following we have no idea how many are still going to suffer from Long Covid and letting the virus simply rage around risks another variant developing which can obviously have massive consequences if vaccines prove less effective.
But is long-covid a real danger for people who did not have to go to hospital? Statements like that without any sources makes me think you want the virus to be dangerous and the measures to be kept as long as possible.
I disagree. We have had FAR too much of this already.
Also, have you noticed how the media swap between using persentages and raw numbers to tell the most dramatic and scary story? And if nothing is scary, they just report about somewhere else? I recommend going straight to the widely published statistical data instead of using click-hunting jorunalists as middle-men.
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On July 21 2021 05:21 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2021 23:09 Gorsameth wrote:On July 20 2021 20:47 Slydie wrote:On July 20 2021 16:12 m4ini wrote:After last year, i think a lot of people got to the conclusion that stuff will go bad even if they act responsible because there are simply too many idiots who don't. And in that situation, if you are responsible, you are the most fucked in the end. I think Boris Johnson pushed that point over the line quite handily. Not only with the text messages that are coming to light through Cummings, but also his attempt to weasel out of quarantine etc after getting pinged by the already struggling track and trace service - with thousands and thousands of people uninstalling the app straight after. BJ singlehandedly undermines every bit of trust and/or responsibility someone could have. Why give a shit if the guy sitting at the top doesn't? It's utter ridiculous. That said? It's not just BJ. Already plenty of reports from welsh towns along the coast asking the english politely to fuck off back into their petri dish - because they don't appear to be grasping the fact that there certainly are restrictions in place still in wales, causing disruptions. I am very happy BJ moved ahead like this. If it goes badly, we know what to do, if it goes well, we also know what to do. The theory is that previous waves and vaccines are enough to keep serious illness and deaths to an acceptable level despite a full reopening, and he is probably right, depending on what you consider "acceptable". The Dutch have tried this already, we know what happens when you fully open up before the youth are vaccinated. A massive pike in infections and reproduction factor of ~3. While hospitalization and death are sofar not following we have no idea how many are still going to suffer from Long Covid and letting the virus simply rage around risks another variant developing which can obviously have massive consequences if vaccines prove less effective. But is long-covid a real danger for people who did not have to go to hospital? Statements like that without any sources makes me think you want the virus to be dangerous and the measures to be kept as long as possible. I disagree. We have had FAR too much of this already. Also, have you noticed how the media swap between using persentages and raw numbers to tell the most dramatic and scary story? And if nothing is scary, they just report about somewhere else? I recommend going straight to the widely published statistical data instead of using click-hunting jorunalists as middle-men. here you go, published statistical data.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/
Note the MASSIVE spike in daily new cases since end of June when the Netherlands fully opened up.
I don't want the measures to go on as long as possible. once the youth has been vaccinated I suspect it would be relatively safe to open back up, which should happen in a few months (I am 35 and getting my 2nd shot in a week).
Here is an article from nature about a norwegan study into long covid from last month
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3
We found that a large proportion of survivors of COVID-19 in our cohort had persistent symptoms 6 months after their initial illness. Although it has previously been reported that patients hospitalized for severe COVID-19 frequently suffer long-term symptoms20,21,22,23, we found that more than half of home-isolated, mildly to moderately ill patients with COVID-19 still suffered symptoms 6 months after infection
CDC from last year
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/monumental-acknowledgment-cdc-reports-long-term-covid-19-patients-n1234814
As many as a third of patients who were never sick enough to be hospitalized are not back to their usual health up to three weeks after their diagnosis, the report found.
Here is another study talking about the lack of correlation between hospitalization and long term effects.
https://www.thoracic.org/about/newsroom/post-covid-complications.pdf
The lack of association with infection severity highlights that this may be an issue
for a large number of patients, and this should be used to inform management strategies for
convalescent patients.
another one from about a month ago.
https://time.com/6073522/long-covid-prevalence/
Patients with serious cases of COVID-19 were most likely to report a post-COVID condition, but the study shows that people can develop Long COVID even after a mild initial case of COVID-19. Half of the people who were hospitalized for COVID-19, then discharged, developed at least one issue lasting 30 or more days, followed by 27.5% of people who were symptomatic but not hospitalized and 19% of people whose claims never reported an acute COVID-19 symptom. That finding refutes the idea that young, healthy people will be fine after a COVID-19 infection—even for those with symptom-free cases, there can be lasting consequences.
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'Long COVID' is a broad generic term which encompasses anything from mild fatigue to brain fog. Also, stats are mainly based on self-reporting. Not saying that Long COVID is not real and dangerous. But the true extent of its effects to different people is still being studied.
I take Slydie's main point as being that Long COVID shouldn't be a main determining factor of whether restrictions should be lifted or loosened (as opposed to other 'hard' stats like hospitalisation, infection rate, vaccination, etc). To do so would mean taking a zero-risk infection strategy similar to Australia. Also, the reason against factoring Long COVID is due to its current state of uncertainty.
There's really no need to treat such skepticsm at the same level as COVID-denial altogether. Chill out, people.
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On July 21 2021 10:13 RKC wrote:
'Long COVID' is a broad generic term which encompasses anything from mild fatigue to brain fog. Also, stats are mainly based on self-reporting. Not saying that Long COVID is not real and dangerous. But the true extent of its effects to different people is still being studied.
I take Slydie's main point as being that Long COVID shouldn't be a main determining factor of whether restrictions should be lifted or loosened (as opposed to other 'hard' stats like hospitalisation, infection rate, vaccination, etc). To do so would mean taking a zero-risk infection strategy similar to Australia. Also, the reason against factoring Long COVID is due to its current state of uncertainty.
There's really no need to treat such skepticsm at the same level as COVID-denial altogether. Chill out, people.
The people claiming they want to end the pandemic are the ones in actuality dragging it out with vague terms like 'Long-Covid'.
We started off 18 months ago with '3 weeks to flatten the curve' and Fauci stating the risk of coronavirus is 'miniscule' + Show Spoiler + , that morphed into get the vulnerable & elderly vaccinated and we can return to normal (they are vaccinated by now) which has now morphed into we need to vaccinate everyone, even kids (Who they even admit are at incredibly low risk from COVID, about the same as the flu).
Now we've got people in their 20s and 30s (very low risk people) who are double vaccinated who still have to wear masks and in many countries still have to comply with lockdowns.From what i see though more and more people have had enough, and are starting to stand up and fight back which is a great thing.
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lol
Two weeks after your article, the UK had headlines of TWO more infections, taking the total to 15. Fifteen. That totally makes him look stupid, by then he should've clearly known how infectious and deadly the virus is, and that 17 months later 4.1 million are 6 feet under - and still counting.
Quite literally, yet again, almost everything you fingervomit there is wrong. Provably wrong. Starting from your "risk assessment" made by facebook to your comparison to the flu (which incidentally we also vaccinate against, just pointing that out), etc.
The only true thing there is that yeah, the really, really stupid people, start to "fight back". And it's a sight to behold, let me tell you.
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viva la revolución! , oh wait ... people can't stand up for shit dude, they're to divided, panicked, to busy white knighting long-covid, etc.
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On July 21 2021 13:44 m4ini wrote:
lol
Two weeks after your article, the UK had headlines of TWO more infections, taking the total to 15. Fifteen. That totally makes him look stupid, by then he should've clearly known how infectious and deadly the virus is, and that 17 months later 4.1 million are 6 feet under - and still counting.
Quite literally, yet again, almost everything you fingervomit there is wrong. Provably wrong. Starting from your "risk assessment" made by facebook to your comparison to the flu (which incidentally we also vaccinate against, just pointing that out), etc.
The only true thing there is that yeah, the really, really stupid people, start to "fight back". And it's a sight to behold, let me tell you.
Stating kids, 20s and 30s are at very low risk isn't wrong.
Actually I've posted this here before but studies show the biggest preventable COVID risk in younger people is obesity.
https://theconversation.com/severe-covid-in-young-people-can-mostly-be-explained-by-obesity-new-study-159072
A study published last year in Nature reported that obesity increased the risk of COVID-related death substantially. People with the highest BMI (over 40) were at 92% higher risk of dying from COVID compared with people with a healthy BMI (18.5-25). But most people are not this overweight. Many people have been inactive during the lockdowns and may have gained a bit of extra weight, so could that excess weight also increase the risk of developing severe COVID? Our latest study looked at just that.
Using the anonymous health records from almost 7 million people aged 20-99 years in England, we explored the risk of severe COVID across the full BMI range.
We found that the lowest risk was found among those with a BMI of 23, at which point the risk increased linearly, around 5% higher risk of hospital admission, 10% higher risk of ICU admission, and 4% of death per each unit increase in BMI.
Notably, the effect of excess weight on the risk of severe COVID was greatest in young people aged 20 to 39 years of age, and decreased after age 60. Excess weight had very little effect on the risk of severe COVID in people aged over 80 years.
The increase in the risk of hospitalisation per BMI unit for those aged 20-39 is 9%; for those aged 40-59, 8%; for 60-79 years, 4%; and 1% for people aged 80-99 years. The increase in the risk of death per BMI unit for those aged 20-39 is 17%; for those aged 40-59, 13%; for 60-79 years, 3%; and 0% for people aged 80-99 years.
Younger people generally experienced much less severe COVID and were less likely to die compared with older people. Still, a younger person with a BMI of 30 would have a much higher risk of severe COVID than their healthy weight peers.
So enforcing stay at home orders, closing gyms, and not allowing people to easily get enough sunlight (vitamin D) really doesn't help the obesity epidemic or peoples immune systems in the first place.The pandemic and the restrictions enforced by the government have made the obesity problem worse and Obesity is the biggest preventable risk factor for young people and COVID.
Re : Kids 99.995% of children with coronavirus survive so how is that not low risk?
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/nearly-all-children-with-coronavirus-survive-230122194.html
Additionally the UK is not advising vaccinating kids at this time because the risk to them from COVID is so miniscule.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/19/vulnerable-uk-children-offered-covid-jabs-first-minister-says
However, the advisory body said: “The health benefits in this population are small, and the benefits to the wider population are highly uncertain. At this time, JCVI is of the view that the health benefits of universal vaccination in children and young people below the age of 18 years do not outweigh the potential risks.”
The only true thing there is that yeah, the really, really stupid people, start to "fight back". And it's a sight to behold, let me tell you.
Go take a look at the some of the comments in the (far left tilt) LosAngeles subreddit on news that mask mandates would be re-introduced to LA county last week.
https://www.reddit.com/r/LosAngeles/comments/ol2560/mask_mandate_for_all_starting_saturday_night/
[–]TropangTexter 961 points 5 days ago
Vaccines should be the end game. If you took the decision to get fully vaccinated, you did your part. Vaccines work.
[–]animalstyleburrito 708 points 5 days ago
Regardless of the correctness of the decision--do they actually think people will abide by this order? It seems like a majority of people are "over it" already.
[–]JamesPolkKilledMyDad 694 points 5 days ago
Are we seriously sitting here pretending like if we wait 3 more months we’ll magically get the vaccinated #s up to 80%? Everybody has been able to walk into a Costco and get a free vaccine for months. If they haven’t gotten it yet, they’re not going to. Time to get over it. Embarrassing decision
And more, way more.You can see for yourself.These are not right wingers these are people who have had both shots and are tired of the goalposts being shifted, and they're getting close to a thousand upvotes in the main LA subreddit.
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Northern Ireland25514 Posts
On July 21 2021 13:44 m4ini wrote:
lol
Two weeks after your article, the UK had headlines of TWO more infections, taking the total to 15. Fifteen. That totally makes him look stupid, by then he should've clearly known how infectious and deadly the virus is, and that 17 months later 4.1 million are 6 feet under - and still counting.
Quite literally, yet again, almost everything you fingervomit there is wrong. Provably wrong. Starting from your "risk assessment" made by facebook to your comparison to the flu (which incidentally we also vaccinate against, just pointing that out), etc.
The only true thing there is that yeah, the really, really stupid people, start to "fight back". And it's a sight to behold, let me tell you.
If only people could put this bloody energy into fighting back against all sorts of other things, climate change, social and economic justice, kicking that cunt Boris Johnson and his Tories out the door etc etc…
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On July 21 2021 14:57 JimmiC wrote:
The main reason for considering vaccinating kids is to stop the spread for everyone. If every adult took it and we didn't have so many people pretending it was not real it wouldn't be thought about at this point because for one thing there would not be enough supply and if every adult took it that would likely be enough for herd immunity or at the very least make it just like the flu. Sadly we have to many scared adults who won't just roll up there sleeve and deal with a tiny needle to be done with it.
Being anti vaxx and anti lockdown at the same time makes it pretty hard to take anyone seriously. You can look at Indonesia or myannamar right now, India before that, Brazil before, and so on and so forth to see it is not an option. And now we are also getting too see it again in many counties in the US as their hospitalizations are climbing like crazy again, where as we are completely open with falling numbers in every way and they could be even better.
It is people like you guys that are extending this thing and making it worse not the people listening to the doctors.
Did you read my post? The UK doctors agree that the risk to kids from COVID is so low that they don't advise vaccinating kids at this time.Lets not pretend the vaccine has zero risk.
I've seen the lockdowns in India and Indonesia and i don't see how it isn't a human rights violation.There is no welfare system there, how are the poor who day labour and earn barely enough to eat surviving in such places when they can't work and earn money.How are the poor surviving? I've heard Bali is finished, although this happened before the recent lockdowns.My heart goes out to those people whose livelihoods have been destroyed.
Seems like 67% of Indians now have antibodies against coronavirus which is a big plus, hopefully they don't ever go into another lockdown.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ray-hope-india-national-survey-052349536.html
Two-thirds of India's population has developed some immunity to COVID-19, a national survey found.
Health authorities say this represents hope for the nation, but warned that one in three Indians are still susceptible to the virus.
Based on the survey, 67.6% of the 28,975 people tested had COVID-19 antibodies.
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Vaccinating kids is not supposed protect them. It's supposed to help us reach the herd immunity threshold, which for the delta variant is really high. It's estimated at around 90% of the total population. Reaching it by vaccinating only adults, even with a 100% uptake, is not possible anymore.
According to the CDC, even in people in the 12-17 years of age bracket the benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks:
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/05-COVID-Wallace-508.pdf
And by the way, complaining about the recommendations changing as we learned more about the virus and as it mutated makes you look really stupid.
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On July 21 2021 15:31 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2021 14:57 JimmiC wrote:
The main reason for considering vaccinating kids is to stop the spread for everyone. If every adult took it and we didn't have so many people pretending it was not real it wouldn't be thought about at this point because for one thing there would not be enough supply and if every adult took it that would likely be enough for herd immunity or at the very least make it just like the flu. Sadly we have to many scared adults who won't just roll up there sleeve and deal with a tiny needle to be done with it.
Being anti vaxx and anti lockdown at the same time makes it pretty hard to take anyone seriously. You can look at Indonesia or myannamar right now, India before that, Brazil before, and so on and so forth to see it is not an option. And now we are also getting too see it again in many counties in the US as their hospitalizations are climbing like crazy again, where as we are completely open with falling numbers in every way and they could be even better.
It is people like you guys that are extending this thing and making it worse not the people listening to the doctors. Did you read my post? The UK doctors agree that the risk to kids from COVID is so low that they don't advise vaccinating kids at this time.Lets not pretend the vaccine has zero risk. I've seen the lockdowns in India and Indonesia and i don't see how it isn't a human rights violation.There is no welfare system there, how are the poor who day labour and earn barely enough to eat surviving in such places when they can't work and earn money.How are the poor surviving? I've heard Bali is finished, although this happened before the recent lockdowns.My heart goes out to those people whose livelihoods have been destroyed. Seems like 67% of Indians now have antibodies against coronavirus which is a big plus, hopefully they don't ever go into another lockdown. https://www.yahoo.com/news/ray-hope-india-national-survey-052349536.htmlShow nested quote +Two-thirds of India's population has developed some immunity to COVID-19, a national survey found.
Health authorities say this represents hope for the nation, but warned that one in three Indians are still susceptible to the virus.
Based on the survey, 67.6% of the 28,975 people tested had COVID-19 antibodies.
Are you really going to look at India and try to get a sob story to be anti-lockdown? Not for the millions who lost their lives or how literally everybody in India knows people who have died from covid, or the nearly billion people who contracted covid, but that they suffered the indignity of a lockdown when a lethal virus was rampaging through the populace.
Super shallow, even for you.
On July 21 2021 18:21 maybenexttime wrote:Vaccinating kids is not supposed protect them. It's supposed to help us reach the herd immunity threshold, which for the delta variant is really high. It's estimated at around 90% of the total population. Reaching it by vaccinating only adults, even with a 100% uptake, is not possible anymore. According to the CDC, even in people in the 12-17 years of age bracket the benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/05-COVID-Wallace-508.pdfAnd by the way, complaining about the recommendations changing as we learned more about the virus and as it mutated makes you look really stupid.
Pretty much this. The current level of vaccinations in most of the leading countries is enough to stop all the strains before Delta. Now that it's a thing though, the recommendations should change. If the vaccination level combined with reactive measures aren't enough to control spread(eg. not 10's of thousands of cases a day), then active should be implemented, including mandated vaccinations.
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Of all the things, why are some people complaining about the fucking masks so much? I live in South Korea where wearing a mask has been mandatory ever since the pandemic started; I do jogging, cycling, and tennis -- and sure, in a perfect world I'd rather ditch the mask but come the fuck on, even in 30+ degree heat with 70%+ humidity (typical weather here from May to October), it's not a big deal. Lockdowns and stay at home orders are more complicated, but like... when you start bitching about masks in the same paragraph, your arguments seriously lose any and all credibility they might have ever had.
Like, best case wearing masks saves a whole bunch of lives; worst case is, uh, it makes you however slightly more healthy (even without accounting for COVID at all, masks help at least a little bit with things like air pollution, second-hand smoke, etc). It's such a minor inconvenience to wear one, why of all the things you could fight your government on, this is the one you pick? It just makes no sense at all and makes you sound like an absolutely delusional, entitled, self-centered brat.
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On July 21 2021 20:32 Salazarz wrote:
Of all the things, why are some people complaining about the fucking masks so much? I live in South Korea where wearing a mask has been mandatory ever since the pandemic started; I do jogging, cycling, and tennis -- and sure, in a perfect world I'd rather ditch the mask but come the fuck on, even in 30+ degree heat with 70%+ humidity (typical weather here from May to October), it's not a big deal. Lockdowns and stay at home orders are more complicated, but like... when you start bitching about masks in the same paragraph, your arguments seriously lose any and all credibility they might have ever had.
Like, best case wearing masks saves a whole bunch of lives; worst case is, uh, it makes you however slightly more healthy (even without accounting for COVID at all, masks help at least a little bit with things like air pollution, second-hand smoke, etc). It's such a minor inconvenience to wear one, why of all the things you could fight your government on, this is the one you pick? It just makes no sense at all and makes you sound like an absolutely delusional, entitled, self-centered brat.
One thing the pandemic has laid plain is that accusations are frequently reflections of the accuser. In that way, the folks who endlessly criticize mask use, often using terms of virtue signaling, are themselves signaling what they think is their own virtue in disputing commonly accepted medical advice.
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The problem with reopening
First a theoretical explanation of how a virus propagates (and thus produces an epidemic or pandemic):
1) A virus infects a host (e.g. a person or an animal), which then produces more of the same virus
2) The virus mutates (with some probability per each replication)
3) With more virus matter in circulation, the probability of mutation goes up (causing a cumulative probability, which eventually leads to quasi-certainty)
4) Most mutations are not meaningful (i.e. not resulting in new strains)
5) Some mutations are meaningful, leading to new strains
6) Of the new strains, some are more potent, others are less potent (in various ways)
7) Of the new strains, some can/could overcome previously existing immunity
Also, 100 sars-cov-2 virions inside a single host are estimated to be potent enough to cause an infection, and therefore (re)start/continue/worsen the pandemic. 100 is a very small amount, meaning sars-cov-2 is relatively more potent.
Some of the more recent waves are happening in the UK and it's now also happening in NL and Israel and a long list of other countries that have previously brought the numbers down very low. This is very important to note.
The strains that are concerning and are currently in circulation are categorized as alpha, beta, gamma and delta. Delta is the fastest spreading type right now.
What is the problem when the rate of infection increases (as we can see happening right now in most countries)?
What most countries have been doing is that they've brought the numbers down and then reopened before eradicating the virus, resulting in R going back up to >1. I call those countries "exporters", because they're mostly responsible for producing more infections. Some of the most notable examples are/were China (the point of origin), then countries like Italy, Brazil, UK, India, and a few more.
Especially noteworthy is the UK, which has not been an exporter country until a few weeks ago, and is now again an exporter due to R>1. This happened because the delta variant was exported to the UK at some point (as it was to many other countries, too).
A few countries had previously fully eradicated the virus. Those were Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore (and maybe one or two that I've overlooked). I call these countries "importers", because the only means for them to produce an epidemic is (or was until recently) by importing infected people and releasing them into the general population.
This is what has happened in Taiwan and is now also what's happening in Australia and probably Singapore. It took only one infected international traveller "partying hard" in Taiwan to release covid into the general population.
New Zealand might be spared from this fate, we'll have to wait and see.
As we can see, it takes only one individual to slip through and start an epidemic in any given country.
This is why - throughout this pandemic - many countries have ben seen blocking or restricting travel from exporter countries. But that system is clearly not perfect, and due to this imperfection there's a persistent problem.
What is the problem?
There are too many exporter countries. Due to this, each time that one exporter country becomes an importer, it somehow manages to go right back to becoming an exporter. Why? Because of freshly imported new strains from other exporters. It'd be possible to prevent the import of a virus from one exporter country, but it becomes difficult if not outright impossible when the number of exporters increases exponentially.
A possible solution to this problem could be to further tighten international travel restrictions. Quarantines will have to be extended far beyond two weeks, for example. A number of other heavy adjustments will have to be made to int. travel, like the total traffic, perhaps even the duration of the stay, also track and trace, etc.
This can help (but by no means guarantee to) end the pandemic if every single country implements these restrictions. Why is that? Because if new strains never popped up in the first place, the virus would eventually lose all of its potency, because the vulnerable population would be shrinking rapidly. Mutation into new strains is the virus' way of overcoming old immunity. So it's the import/export of new strains that must be halted.
Is this an economically sustainable strategy? My answer would be a very clear "yes!" We can see that Taiwan's economy didn't suffer much or at all despite heavy int. travel restrictions, while most/all other countries suffered. Further increasing those restrictions will certainly do far less damage to the economy than continuous lockdowns.
Beyond that, everyone should watch out for their own health. Try to eat healthy food (less processed, less sugar/starch, more fiber) and get exercise and sunlight.
Good luck and stay safe.
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EPT
