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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
On July 15 2021 14:58 JimmiC wrote: Please grace us with this solid working hypothesis. :D Let's call it assumption rather than hypothesis. And I suppose it's enough research for an outrage YouTube video or Twitter Post | ||
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Harris1st
Germany7153 Posts
I mean currently it's raining all day in southern Germany but god dammit it's summer and I wanna be outside as much as possible while in winter it's more "let's get cozy by the fireplace" kinda thinking. Now, I don't know if the ground theory of "the indoor transmission rate is much higher than outdoors" is accepted by everyone. If it is, there might be some truth to my first statement  | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
In sum, we show that an increase in absolute latitude by 1° is associated with a 4.3% increase in COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants. Increasing temperatures and longer sunlight exposure during summer may boost the impact of public health policies and actions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Conversely, the threat of epidemic resurgence may increase during winter. However, our results do not indicate that the disease will vanish in summer, nor that countries located close to the equator will contain the disease without effective public health measures. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7366819/ Results: To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30–50° N’ corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5–11°C, combined with low specific (3–6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4–7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel. Conclusions and Relevance: The distribution of significant community outbreaks along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Additionally, we have proposed a simplified model that shows a zone at increased risk for COVID-19 spread. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to predict the regions most likely to be at higher risk of significant community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment. so, latitude, temperature and relative humidity is the accepted, valid starting point for further research. Edit: people behavior doesn't matter, or rather: if we put all people in baubles, then who's gonna spread the covid!?!?!?, duh duh. the fuck is that?. people/scientists are trying to find out what other factors besides people are influential. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
Looks like 65% population vaccinated isn't quite enough. We'll see soon enough if 70% as in Canada is enough, or if we'll need to get the 6mo-11yo population to really see the end of it | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4410 Posts
Because vaccination is so political in the US and dems tend to dominate the cities and reps the rural. You will have 70% vaccinated city that is densely populated next to sparsely populated place with 20% Blatant oversimplification considering black Americans are by far the lowest group vaccinated and often congregate in cities, and vote democrat. See - City of Chester, PA.74% Black, 27% fully vaccinated as of July 7 https://6abc.com/chester-vaccinations-low-vaccination-rates-covid-19-vaccine-delaware-county/10869086/ | ||
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RKC
2848 Posts
On July 14 2021 02:46 RKC wrote: Meanwhile, somewhere near the equator, some of my dear friends are suffering in a country which just hit peak infection after weeks of lockdown and vaccination program in overdrive (mostly AZ). If such weird trend continues, no surprise people starts questioning about the logic of everything... Update on counter-example of infections hitting peak even as vaccination drive in full force: infections still soaring, friend tested positive after being vaccinated (despite under lockdown and going out once or twice a week to buy essentials). If we have a perfect vaccine and the virus don't mutate, then of course vaccination is super effective. No one is arguing against that, in principle. But the reality is that our current vaccines aren't there yet. If vaccines are the main factor of curbing infections, wouldn't there be a drop of infections regardless of other factors (eg lax lockdown, low compliance to social-distancing and masks-wearing, quarantine and isolation breaches)? Obviously vaccines aren't the silver bullet. Again, the importance of vaccination shouldn't be doubted. But there's the risk of playing up its effects resulting to complacency in other areas. And that's perhaps why infections still soar where vaccination rate is high (like UK). People being vaccinated drop their guard. So putting all focus on vaccination can be counter-productive. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
On July 16 2021 07:37 JimmiC wrote: no one cares nor talks about vaccines there; arguments are not made to vindicate/indict unvaccinated people; the fuck is wrong with you?.I think you are missing the point. People are not saying environment is not a factor, they are saying it is not the biggest. Take the US right now. You have new Mexico right between Texas and Arizona, but either side has much faster rising cases. And even more gradually than that you can look at counties that are right next door with different patterns. Because vaccination is so political in the US and dems tend to dominate the cities and reps the rural. You will have 70% vaccinated city that is densely populated next to sparsely populated place with 20%. If weather was the main factor they would be similar, heck the densely populated would be worse but instead the densely populated area has much lower cases and even lower hospitalization rates. If weather was a bigger factor places with the same latitude or whatever would be similar regardless of vaccination rates but places with different weather would be acting different. That is why all the data from both your studies are taken from before vaccination because now those patterns do not hold true. I'm not sure why people are working so hard to find other reasons when vaccines have been shown to work in this case and historically. If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, smells like a duck it is a duck. it's not weather. you can have different climatological conditions in states that are nearby or in provinces within the same state ... etc. if you can't actually read/understand articles that are not from yahoo, then just don't comment on them. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States23885 Posts
Also feels weird how "over" it is starting to feel (or businesses/people are acting like) in the US despite cases and deaths globally being worse than pretty much all last year (save Nov/Dec) and starting to rise in the US. I've never been very worried about dying from covid, and less so since I've been vaccinated, but variants and long-term symptoms/effects still give me pause about this openness (maybe carelessness?) carrying on past when everything is open-air/outside. | ||
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Amui
Canada10567 Posts
On July 16 2021 15:53 GreenHorizons wrote: This whole "unvaccinated people are encouraged to wear masks" sign phase going on now locally for me seems asinine. Also feels weird how "over" it is starting to feel (or businesses/people are acting like) in the US despite cases and deaths globally being worse than pretty much all last year (save Nov/Dec) and starting to rise in the US. I've never been very worried about dying from covid, and less so since I've been vaccinated, but variants and long-term symptoms/effects still give me pause about this openness (maybe carelessness?) carrying on past when everything is open-air/outside. I personally don't mind the digs at the unvaccinated to be honest. Especially in the US, they've had every opportunity to get it done if they wanted to. Every one of them is piggy backing off the protection provided by the vaccinated, so inconveniencing them really doesn't bother me. Even though we went masks optional a week ago, every shop I've been in still has the masks required sign up, and most people still wear masks to go around indoors. My bouldering gym is going to require them until the start of september, which I think is fair as some of their patrons won't have had a chance to be 2dose+2weeks until then. Between poorer countries and people who don't care for whatever reason in wealthier countries, there's a fair chance an even more virulent variant comes out. Delta is already at a point where every country that doesn't have 75+%(maybe even higher) mRNA vaccines will either need an extra mRNA shot, or else a Delta specific booster to have any shot of containing it. A lot of SEA which has been reliant on Sinovac is really not in a good place atm. My local health authority has ~85% eligible vaccinated now, but we've still been sitting around 10 cases a day for a month or so now despite consistently adding to the first/second dose population. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5787 Posts
On July 16 2021 10:32 RKC wrote: Update on counter-example of infections hitting peak even as vaccination drive in full force: infections still soaring, friend tested positive after being vaccinated (despite under lockdown and going out once or twice a week to buy essentials). If we have a perfect vaccine and the virus don't mutate, then of course vaccination is super effective. No one is arguing against that, in principle. But the reality is that our current vaccines aren't there yet. If vaccines are the main factor of curbing infections, wouldn't there be a drop of infections regardless of other factors (eg lax lockdown, low compliance to social-distancing and masks-wearing, quarantine and isolation breaches)? Obviously vaccines aren't the silver bullet. Again, the importance of vaccination shouldn't be doubted. But there's the risk of playing up its effects resulting to complacency in other areas. And that's perhaps why infections still soar where vaccination rate is high (like UK). People being vaccinated drop their guard. So putting all focus on vaccination can be counter-productive. In the UK, the cases are soaring among the unvaccinated groups (the uptake is very high here, so until recently they were still vaccinating by age groups): + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/07/08/15/45199403-9769177-image-a-2_1625754825194.jpg) 2nd dose uptake (I think they actually mean coverage here): + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/image_data/file/124510/figure_5_dose2_sex.png) | ||
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Geisterkarle
Germany3257 Posts
On July 16 2021 18:38 Amui wrote: My local health authority has ~85% eligible vaccinated now, but we've still been sitting around 10 cases a day for a month or so now despite consistently adding to the first/second dose population. What do you mean with "still 10 cases a day"? Or better: What exactly do you people think, what the "final goal" is? Zero cases? Worldwide? Do you really think that is happening? Because I can tell you that I don't think so! It is out there and not going away! So for me, at somepoint "we" have to say: It's "irrelevant" and not better/worse as other serious conditions humankind is/was dealing with on a daily basis. If it is because many people are vaccinated or we got better treatments or something similar doesn't matter. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Vindicare605
United States16121 Posts
I fucking hate selfish people like this. We had one glorious month of life returning to a relative normal and now thanks to them we have to close shit up again. As someone that works in the restaurant and bar industry it's also making me question if I'm going to still able to get shifts. Ugh. Source: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-07-15/l-a-county-will-require-masks-indoors-amid-covid-19-surge | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5787 Posts
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Lmui
Canada6223 Posts
Going by first dose uptake, there's only three states above 70% first dose uptake, and six above 65% at a population level. That's a level enough to stop earlier strains of covid, but Delta is likely going to overpower that, looking at the UK. https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker Locally, it seems that 65%+ population vaccination rates combined with aggressive contact tracing keeps covid of all varieties in check, but you can still see outbreaks get to 10s of people a day pretty quickly. We've had tens of Delta cases/week for the past month and they haven't really gone anywhere. One thing I'm slightly surprised about is the border situation with Canada/USA. It was just extended another month, and it's looking likely that we will have to figure out a vaccine passport system, because comments so far are that only vaccinated people can travel to Canada. There's no system in place on either side to facilitate this, so it's going to be interesting to see who gets paid to slap together something in the next month. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4410 Posts
On July 16 2021 14:11 JimmiC wrote: So the real creepy part about your post is where did you get the 74% black from it is not in your article. What were you googling that found you that? It is quite concerning that you came across it and even more so that you then found a less offensive one to post but kept the old info in there. It also appears out of date because 2021 it says 69% black. https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/chester-pa-population Sorry, what is offensive about stating facts? The 74% black for that city is from the 2010 census.You're arguing that black Americans aren't among the lowest vaccinated groups? That they don't vote democrat? That 69% is so different from 74% a few years prior? Pick your fights. | ||
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