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Isn't it also one of the most connected and urban countries in Africa? Cape Town is close to the actual embodiment of the most dystopian portrayal you see of US inner cities in 1980 sci fi.
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South Africa’s situation is similar to India’s where there’s a significant amount of informal activity that cannot be controlled or tracked. You have both significant informal settlements that the government hasn’t got a good grasp on and significant informal businesses that the government has no idea about. The government can’t implement a proper lockdown or contact tracing measures, it can only hope for a vaccine or for the virus to burn out.
There’s also other problems unique to Africa ranging from lack of virus education and the negative stigma of catching it. People don’t want to admit catching it or dying from it. Excessive deaths of that amount isn’t surprising.
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This dataset is nice to look over as well.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview
There's 12 states above a 10% test positive rate, including Arizona (25%), Alabama (19.2%), Florida (18.7%), Georgia (15.9%) and Texas (15.9%)
These 5 states represent about 40% of all new infections in the USA right now.
California, despite having a huge new case load, is sitting around 8% and semi-stable.
I'm not really seeing any containment right now from this data.
It looks like the next world scramble, since we've gone through PPE, and are going through testing supplies right now is for vaccine pre-orders, and early production slots.
The EU's put aside 2 billion euros for vaccines, specifically not ones manufactured in the USA.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-vaccines-exclus/exclusive-eu-eyes-covid-19-vaccines-at-less-than-40-shuns-who-led-alliance-sources-idUSKCN24P1OY
With how PPE went, I suspect that if Trump is in office, the policy will be Americans first, and if it can be purchased, appropriated or rerouted to USA soil, and stolen, it will be.
As expected though, poorer countries will have to beg for vaccines, or get the scraps as richer countries gobble up the supply.
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For sure, with some countries having already pre-bought a whole bunch there is basically going to be nothing on the market until those contracts have been for filled and less fortunately countries will be stuck waiting for vaccines to become available.
And if those pre-ordered supplies are not enough I can well see countries trying to buy their way ahead of the queue.
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Looking at the situation across the US, there's not much good news. Pretty much every state is at best in the same place they were a month ago, but almost all of them are worse - some by a very significant margin. Total case load is still rising, albeit slowly, and deaths are climbing steadily. Not a lot of states look like they're ready to close down again (probably since that would do far more lasting damage to the economy than the first lockdown), but with the way these numbers are trending, I don't see it getting better for a long time.
I feel like too many policymakers and other wishful thinkers believe that if everyone just wears masks, that the spread of the disease will be brought under control without significant quarantine measures. The research on that seems conflicted at best.
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On July 25 2020 14:48 LegalLord wrote:
Looking at the situation across the US, there's not much good news. Pretty much every state is at best in the same place they were a month ago, but almost all of them are worse - some by a very significant margin. Total case load is still rising, albeit slowly, and deaths are climbing steadily. Not a lot of states look like they're ready to close down again (probably since that would do far more lasting damage to the economy than the first lockdown), but with the way these numbers are trending, I don't see it getting better for a long time.
I feel like too many policymakers and other wishful thinkers believe that if everyone just wears masks, that the spread of the disease will be brought under control without significant quarantine measures. The research on that seems conflicted at best.
This is sad, but not unexpected. As is often the problem in America, the initial lockdowns were both draconian (for the law abiding portion of the population) but also ineffective (because of a large amount of lawless people who are almost impossible to police). If you lived in a big city you knew there was always a solid 5% or so ensuring the lockdowns wouldn't ever get cases low enough.
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If US continues to go at this rate, they might not need vaccines at all. The earliest time a vaccine can be available is early next year, and I'm pretty sure if they continue registering these numbers for the next 6 months, they will get close to herd immunity.
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On July 25 2020 17:15 arbiter_md wrote:
If US continues to go at this rate, they might not need vaccines at all. The earliest time a vaccine can be available is early next year, and I'm pretty sure if they continue registering these numbers for the next 6 months, they will get close to herd immunity. 1000+ deaths a day for 6 months would be pretty disastrous.
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On July 25 2020 17:15 arbiter_md wrote:
If US continues to go at this rate, they might not need vaccines at all. The earliest time a vaccine can be available is early next year, and I'm pretty sure if they continue registering these numbers for the next 6 months, they will get close to herd immunity.
But there are at least 2 vaccines...? Not available for mass production but there anyway. One example is the Oxford vaccine.
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On July 25 2020 18:23 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2020 17:15 arbiter_md wrote:
If US continues to go at this rate, they might not need vaccines at all. The earliest time a vaccine can be available is early next year, and I'm pretty sure if they continue registering these numbers for the next 6 months, they will get close to herd immunity. But there are at least 2 vaccines...? Not available for mass production but there anyway. One example is the Oxford vaccine.
You cannot give people a vaccine which has not been thoroughly tested. That is a recipe for disaster, and can easily end up with a situation where the vaccine is worse than the disease. And those tests take some time.
I am not anti-vaxx. I love vaccines. I think they are one of the best things humanity has come up with, besides maybe antibiotics, fire or the wheel. But i would not take a vaccine for covid which hasn't be sufficiently tested.
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On July 25 2020 18:39 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2020 18:23 SC-Shield wrote:On July 25 2020 17:15 arbiter_md wrote:
If US continues to go at this rate, they might not need vaccines at all. The earliest time a vaccine can be available is early next year, and I'm pretty sure if they continue registering these numbers for the next 6 months, they will get close to herd immunity. But there are at least 2 vaccines...? Not available for mass production but there anyway. One example is the Oxford vaccine. You cannot give people a vaccine which has not been thoroughly tested. That is a recipe for disaster, and can easily end up with a situation where the vaccine is worse than the disease. And those tests take some time. I am not anti-vaxx. I love vaccines. I think they are one of the best things humanity has come up with, besides maybe antibiotics, fire or the wheel. But i would not take a vaccine for covid which hasn't be sufficiently tested.
Sure, that's why the vaccine isn't mass produced at the moment. But things aren't so bad when there are already good candidates in progress.
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On July 25 2020 19:03 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2020 18:39 Simberto wrote:On July 25 2020 18:23 SC-Shield wrote:On July 25 2020 17:15 arbiter_md wrote:
If US continues to go at this rate, they might not need vaccines at all. The earliest time a vaccine can be available is early next year, and I'm pretty sure if they continue registering these numbers for the next 6 months, they will get close to herd immunity. But there are at least 2 vaccines...? Not available for mass production but there anyway. One example is the Oxford vaccine. You cannot give people a vaccine which has not been thoroughly tested. That is a recipe for disaster, and can easily end up with a situation where the vaccine is worse than the disease. And those tests take some time. I am not anti-vaxx. I love vaccines. I think they are one of the best things humanity has come up with, besides maybe antibiotics, fire or the wheel. But i would not take a vaccine for covid which hasn't be sufficiently tested. Sure, that's why the vaccine isn't mass produced at the moment. But things aren't so bad when there are already good candidates in progress.
Even the earliest candidates most likely won't be ready before early 2021.
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On July 25 2020 15:34 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2020 14:48 LegalLord wrote:
Looking at the situation across the US, there's not much good news. Pretty much every state is at best in the same place they were a month ago, but almost all of them are worse - some by a very significant margin. Total case load is still rising, albeit slowly, and deaths are climbing steadily. Not a lot of states look like they're ready to close down again (probably since that would do far more lasting damage to the economy than the first lockdown), but with the way these numbers are trending, I don't see it getting better for a long time.
I feel like too many policymakers and other wishful thinkers believe that if everyone just wears masks, that the spread of the disease will be brought under control without significant quarantine measures. The research on that seems conflicted at best. This is sad, but not unexpected. As is often the problem in America, the initial lockdowns were both draconian (for the law abiding portion of the population) but also ineffective (because of a large amount of lawless people who are almost impossible to police). If you lived in a big city you knew there was always a solid 5% or so ensuring the lockdowns wouldn't ever get cases low enough.
It's less so that violators couldn't be policed so much as they weren't. People who violated shelter-in-place orders were seldom if ever punished; businesses that did got a slap on the wrist. The right way to have done it would be to meaningfully punish individual offenders (a hefty fine on a second violation, perhaps), and to just straight-up revoke the business license for businesses that openly fail to comply. California for example notionally had a very aggressive response but did absolutely nothing to enforce the order, putting them right back where they started with no end in sight.
The nations that moved quickly and aggressively to contain the virus were heavily criticized months ago, but now have the virus mostly under control. The US only moved quickly and aggressively to protect the stock market, but the virus is as lively as ever.
On July 25 2020 20:08 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2020 19:03 SC-Shield wrote:On July 25 2020 18:39 Simberto wrote:On July 25 2020 18:23 SC-Shield wrote:On July 25 2020 17:15 arbiter_md wrote:
If US continues to go at this rate, they might not need vaccines at all. The earliest time a vaccine can be available is early next year, and I'm pretty sure if they continue registering these numbers for the next 6 months, they will get close to herd immunity. But there are at least 2 vaccines...? Not available for mass production but there anyway. One example is the Oxford vaccine. You cannot give people a vaccine which has not been thoroughly tested. That is a recipe for disaster, and can easily end up with a situation where the vaccine is worse than the disease. And those tests take some time. I am not anti-vaxx. I love vaccines. I think they are one of the best things humanity has come up with, besides maybe antibiotics, fire or the wheel. But i would not take a vaccine for covid which hasn't be sufficiently tested. Sure, that's why the vaccine isn't mass produced at the moment. But things aren't so bad when there are already good candidates in progress. Even the earliest candidates most likely won't be ready before early 2021.
Realistically we probably have another year left of virus before vaccines bring it firmly under control. At this rate, for countries that aren't able to contain the spread, there won't be too many people left to vaccinate by the time it's ready.
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On July 25 2020 15:34 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2020 14:48 LegalLord wrote:
Looking at the situation across the US, there's not much good news. Pretty much every state is at best in the same place they were a month ago, but almost all of them are worse - some by a very significant margin. Total case load is still rising, albeit slowly, and deaths are climbing steadily. Not a lot of states look like they're ready to close down again (probably since that would do far more lasting damage to the economy than the first lockdown), but with the way these numbers are trending, I don't see it getting better for a long time.
I feel like too many policymakers and other wishful thinkers believe that if everyone just wears masks, that the spread of the disease will be brought under control without significant quarantine measures. The research on that seems conflicted at best. This is sad, but not unexpected. As is often the problem in America, the initial lockdowns were both draconian (for the law abiding portion of the population) but also ineffective (because of a large amount of lawless people who are almost impossible to police). If you lived in a big city you knew there was always a solid 5% or so ensuring the lockdowns wouldn't ever get cases low enough.
Also capricious, such as allowing shopping for some hobbies, but not gardening. Or governors stopping outdoor crowds over 10, then going marching with BLM among thousands (mixed mass usage).
Rulers picking favorites encourages civil disobedience. Rulers showing the danger doesn't apply in some cases lessens the apprehension of danger in the public at large. They might as well be making the civil rights speeches holding placards that say "Pandemic's over, folks!"
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On July 26 2020 00:18 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2020 15:34 cLutZ wrote:On July 25 2020 14:48 LegalLord wrote:
Looking at the situation across the US, there's not much good news. Pretty much every state is at best in the same place they were a month ago, but almost all of them are worse - some by a very significant margin. Total case load is still rising, albeit slowly, and deaths are climbing steadily. Not a lot of states look like they're ready to close down again (probably since that would do far more lasting damage to the economy than the first lockdown), but with the way these numbers are trending, I don't see it getting better for a long time.
I feel like too many policymakers and other wishful thinkers believe that if everyone just wears masks, that the spread of the disease will be brought under control without significant quarantine measures. The research on that seems conflicted at best. This is sad, but not unexpected. As is often the problem in America, the initial lockdowns were both draconian (for the law abiding portion of the population) but also ineffective (because of a large amount of lawless people who are almost impossible to police). If you lived in a big city you knew there was always a solid 5% or so ensuring the lockdowns wouldn't ever get cases low enough. It's less so that violators couldn't be policed so much as they weren't. People who violated shelter-in-place orders were seldom if ever punished; businesses that did got a slap on the wrist. The right way to have done it would be to meaningfully punish individual offenders (a hefty fine on a second violation, perhaps), and to just straight-up revoke the business license for businesses that openly fail to comply. California for example notionally had a very aggressive response but did absolutely nothing to enforce the order, putting them right back where they started with no end in sight. The nations that moved quickly and aggressively to contain the virus were heavily criticized months ago, but now have the virus mostly under control. The US only moved quickly and aggressively to protect the stock market, but the virus is as lively as ever. Show nested quote +On July 25 2020 20:08 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:On July 25 2020 19:03 SC-Shield wrote:On July 25 2020 18:39 Simberto wrote:On July 25 2020 18:23 SC-Shield wrote:On July 25 2020 17:15 arbiter_md wrote:
If US continues to go at this rate, they might not need vaccines at all. The earliest time a vaccine can be available is early next year, and I'm pretty sure if they continue registering these numbers for the next 6 months, they will get close to herd immunity. But there are at least 2 vaccines...? Not available for mass production but there anyway. One example is the Oxford vaccine. You cannot give people a vaccine which has not been thoroughly tested. That is a recipe for disaster, and can easily end up with a situation where the vaccine is worse than the disease. And those tests take some time. I am not anti-vaxx. I love vaccines. I think they are one of the best things humanity has come up with, besides maybe antibiotics, fire or the wheel. But i would not take a vaccine for covid which hasn't be sufficiently tested. Sure, that's why the vaccine isn't mass produced at the moment. But things aren't so bad when there are already good candidates in progress. Even the earliest candidates most likely won't be ready before early 2021. Realistically we probably have another year left of virus before vaccines bring it firmly under control. At this rate, for countries that aren't able to contain the spread, there won't be too many people left to vaccinate by the time it's ready.
I think you are underestimating how hard it is to police judgement proof 15-25 year old men who congregate on large groups and disperse quickly and chaotically. You have to arrest them, and how are you gonna mass arrest youths in this political moment?
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On July 26 2020 01:24 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2020 00:18 LegalLord wrote:On July 25 2020 15:34 cLutZ wrote:On July 25 2020 14:48 LegalLord wrote:
Looking at the situation across the US, there's not much good news. Pretty much every state is at best in the same place they were a month ago, but almost all of them are worse - some by a very significant margin. Total case load is still rising, albeit slowly, and deaths are climbing steadily. Not a lot of states look like they're ready to close down again (probably since that would do far more lasting damage to the economy than the first lockdown), but with the way these numbers are trending, I don't see it getting better for a long time.
I feel like too many policymakers and other wishful thinkers believe that if everyone just wears masks, that the spread of the disease will be brought under control without significant quarantine measures. The research on that seems conflicted at best. This is sad, but not unexpected. As is often the problem in America, the initial lockdowns were both draconian (for the law abiding portion of the population) but also ineffective (because of a large amount of lawless people who are almost impossible to police). If you lived in a big city you knew there was always a solid 5% or so ensuring the lockdowns wouldn't ever get cases low enough. It's less so that violators couldn't be policed so much as they weren't. People who violated shelter-in-place orders were seldom if ever punished; businesses that did got a slap on the wrist. The right way to have done it would be to meaningfully punish individual offenders (a hefty fine on a second violation, perhaps), and to just straight-up revoke the business license for businesses that openly fail to comply. California for example notionally had a very aggressive response but did absolutely nothing to enforce the order, putting them right back where they started with no end in sight. The nations that moved quickly and aggressively to contain the virus were heavily criticized months ago, but now have the virus mostly under control. The US only moved quickly and aggressively to protect the stock market, but the virus is as lively as ever. On July 25 2020 20:08 InFiNitY[pG] wrote:On July 25 2020 19:03 SC-Shield wrote:On July 25 2020 18:39 Simberto wrote:On July 25 2020 18:23 SC-Shield wrote:On July 25 2020 17:15 arbiter_md wrote:
If US continues to go at this rate, they might not need vaccines at all. The earliest time a vaccine can be available is early next year, and I'm pretty sure if they continue registering these numbers for the next 6 months, they will get close to herd immunity. But there are at least 2 vaccines...? Not available for mass production but there anyway. One example is the Oxford vaccine. You cannot give people a vaccine which has not been thoroughly tested. That is a recipe for disaster, and can easily end up with a situation where the vaccine is worse than the disease. And those tests take some time. I am not anti-vaxx. I love vaccines. I think they are one of the best things humanity has come up with, besides maybe antibiotics, fire or the wheel. But i would not take a vaccine for covid which hasn't be sufficiently tested. Sure, that's why the vaccine isn't mass produced at the moment. But things aren't so bad when there are already good candidates in progress. Even the earliest candidates most likely won't be ready before early 2021. Realistically we probably have another year left of virus before vaccines bring it firmly under control. At this rate, for countries that aren't able to contain the spread, there won't be too many people left to vaccinate by the time it's ready. I think you are underestimating how hard it is to police judgement proof 15-25 year old men who congregate on large groups and disperse quickly and chaotically. You have to arrest them, and how are you gonna mass arrest youths in this political moment?
The situation in March, when it became clear that the coronavirus was going to be a dangerous pandemic, was far different from the late May situation with rioters, where there was a far more targeted anti-police sentiment. Close the beaches and venues for large gatherings, press businesses into compliance, and once that's done all you really have to do is police the large impromptu gatherings, a much more manageable situation. It's not quite tenable to have the military patrolling the streets and arresting anyone out of compliance, but it's easy to see that several more key measures, applied universally, would have brought this to an end by early June or so.
People have been and continue to hold large gatherings that take no precautions and are alarmingly public because no one does anything about it. Now the country gets to pay the price for that.
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A very optimistic view from where I'm sitting.
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I find it hard to see the situation we're in as anything near inevitable when:
1. There are many countries that clearly handled it better while having equally bad or worse demographics for doing so.
2. You can point to a lengthy series of poor decision-making that led to the problem being worse than it could have been.
3. Some states clearly did better by being more aggressive with popular public gatherings than the other states that did not do so.
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![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/eBdoLwh.png)
pretty crazy
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EPT
