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On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control.
That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc.
https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases
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On July 13 2020 09:49 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 06:39 NewSunshine wrote:On July 13 2020 06:24 Mohdoo wrote:
Opening Disney world feels criminally negligent. Does anyone know what sort of systems we can use to contain Florida? It feels like it makes sense to just build a wall around Florida and make them pay for it. They are completely out of control at this point I'm reminded of the meme where Bugs Bunny saws Florida off the map. Not just Disney, Universal reopened their parks too. Now Florida has basically one-upped the world on new cases. Side note, I will never understand the capitalist class's super-myopic focus on short-term gains. Businesses rushing to reopen as quickly as possible are forcing everyone to stay in quarantine longer. They would literally be better off if they just cooled it long enough for everything to settle down. We don't even get to worry about a 2nd wave and whether it might happen, because we insist on sating the great God, Economy, literally suggesting old folks should sacrifice their lives to keep this shitty machine running. I was sincerely hoping the pandemic would be what it finally took to start unpacking how broken everything is. Guess not. Why is that myopic focus on short term gains hard to understand? What’s the worst that can happen for them really?
They get less money long term, because everyone has to shut down for longer by the time things approach anything resembling normal again.
Of course, I say that, but by definition the same capitalists have so much money that they don't actually have to give a shit if they take a small hit like this. Though the same trend applies to how almost every company offers shitty/non-existent entry-level positions, has a ton of turnover and retraining as a result, and then they're mystified that they're spending so much on retraining new folks all the time. But that's a mite more related to my personal experiences.
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On July 13 2020 12:45 NewSunshine wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 09:49 Wombat_NI wrote:On July 13 2020 06:39 NewSunshine wrote:On July 13 2020 06:24 Mohdoo wrote:
Opening Disney world feels criminally negligent. Does anyone know what sort of systems we can use to contain Florida? It feels like it makes sense to just build a wall around Florida and make them pay for it. They are completely out of control at this point I'm reminded of the meme where Bugs Bunny saws Florida off the map. Not just Disney, Universal reopened their parks too. Now Florida has basically one-upped the world on new cases. Side note, I will never understand the capitalist class's super-myopic focus on short-term gains. Businesses rushing to reopen as quickly as possible are forcing everyone to stay in quarantine longer. They would literally be better off if they just cooled it long enough for everything to settle down. We don't even get to worry about a 2nd wave and whether it might happen, because we insist on sating the great God, Economy, literally suggesting old folks should sacrifice their lives to keep this shitty machine running. I was sincerely hoping the pandemic would be what it finally took to start unpacking how broken everything is. Guess not. Why is that myopic focus on short term gains hard to understand? What’s the worst that can happen for them really? They get less money long term, because everyone has to shut down for longer by the time things approach anything resembling normal again. Of course, I say that, but by definition the same capitalists have so much money that they don't actually have to give a shit if they take a small hit like this. Though the same trend applies to how almost every company offers shitty/non-existent entry-level positions, has a ton of turnover and retraining as a result, and then they're mystified that they're spending so much on retraining new folks all the time. But that's a mite more related to my personal experiences.
https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/the-public-thinks-the-average-company-makes-a-36-profit-margin-which-is-about-5x-too-high/
This is relevant.
User was warned for this post.
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On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases
We’ve been through this previously with you.
South Dakota has a population density of 11.3 people per square miles. New York State has a population density of 421 people per square mile. Florida is a much better comparison with a population density of 353.4 people per square miles.
No doubt there’s going to be different requirements state to state because the urban / rural / density makeup is going to be different.
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On July 13 2020 13:04 StalkerTL wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases We’ve been through this previously with you. South Dakota has a population density of 11.3 people per square miles. New York State has a population density of 421 people per square mile. Florida is a much better comparison with a population density of 353.4 people per square miles. No doubt there’s going to be different requirements state to state because the urban / rural / density makeup is going to be different.
So, then, you're telling me that deaths and cases are more correlated to population density rather than Government lockdowns and other forced mandates, but when we talk about this everyone skirts around this and acts like Government lockdowns are why some states are doing good and some bad, but the data absolutely shows this not to be the case (which is my point).
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On the other hand, Germany has a population density of 600/square mile (or 232/km² in real units) and handled this stuff way better than florida, despite being hit a lot earlier when we knew less about the disease. In fact, Florida, despite having only 1/4 of the population of Germany, and having a lower population density, has more cases and half as many deaths (which is still twice as many per pop, and will start rising once the infected start getting through the disease and dying more).
So maybe how you react to it actually has some impact? Maybe having an actual efficient lockdown for two months, and then some efficient hygiene rules afterwards is actually good?
It has the big advantage that it is something you can actually do, unlike changing the population density stats, which you cannot influence (but which covid might influence by itself, i guess)
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On July 13 2020 14:11 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 13:04 StalkerTL wrote:On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases We’ve been through this previously with you. South Dakota has a population density of 11.3 people per square miles. New York State has a population density of 421 people per square mile. Florida is a much better comparison with a population density of 353.4 people per square miles. No doubt there’s going to be different requirements state to state because the urban / rural / density makeup is going to be different. So, then, you're telling me that deaths and cases are more correlated to population density rather than Government lockdowns and other forced mandates, but when we talk about this everyone skirts around this and acts like Government lockdowns are why some states are doing good and some bad, but the data absolutely shows this not to be the case (which is my point).
This is a virus that is spread between people. There is no point comparing South Dakota with New York or Florida because South Dakota is a not a state with huge internationally connected economic centers where the virus is most at risk of spreading. If we all lived in Mongolia, there would be little risk of coronavirus but we don’t. Most of us can’t avoid the coronavirus because we live in internationally connected economic urban hubs so we have look for solutions to deal with coronavirus in areas where the spread is incredibly easy.
Lockdowns are effective at controlling the spread in huge international cities, there is case study after case study of it being effective. New York and a significant number of international cities and countries around the world have instituted some form of lockdown and are dealing with the coronavirus significantly better than Texas, Arizona, California and Florida is right now. A lot of these cities that have implemented strict lockdowns have essentially re-opened in some capacity because they took a longer than usual hit to implement tracking capability and the required policy to slow an outbreak if they do occur again.
New York has just had the first day without a coronavirus related death because everyone in the state is social distancing, wearing masks and have bought into government enforced mandates. That’s proof enough that lockdowns and government enforcement of anti-coronavirus measures do work.
If you choose to lockdown but do fuck all during that lockdown or your population refuses to buy in, that’s not the fault of the lockdown. That’s the fault of your government and/or people. Its forcing a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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It seems like in Europe there are essentially three different clusters of countries:
- Countries that had a lot of cases but have contained the virus. Spain, France, Italy, Sweden, Belgium and The Netherlands.
- Countries that managed to contain the virus early on at a low or intermediate lavel, but are now seeing an uptick in cases as restrictions have eased. The worst cases seem to be Portugal and Romania (and Israel if you go by the UEFA definition of Europe), but you're also seeing some activity now in Czechia, Austria, Switzerland or Greece. Nothing too worrisome, but in some cases enough to massively disrupt the tourism industry :'( .
- Countries that have always done a good job at containing the virus, like Finland or Germany. I can only assume it is because human interaction was already culturally frowned upon in these countries pre-covid. 
My guess is that the first group have built up enough immunity to have some sort of wall against a new spike in cases (adding together serology positive, mask wearing indoors, keeping large crowds ban, behavioral change, possible cross-immunity, bla bla bla). I guess we're going to see a real test for this with what's happening in Texas and Florida.
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Worth to note that since we dismissed some of the protective measures (and people are probably more careless) the number of cases is also raising in France. People celebrated victory far too early.
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On July 13 2020 14:11 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 13:04 StalkerTL wrote:On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases We’ve been through this previously with you. South Dakota has a population density of 11.3 people per square miles. New York State has a population density of 421 people per square mile. Florida is a much better comparison with a population density of 353.4 people per square miles. No doubt there’s going to be different requirements state to state because the urban / rural / density makeup is going to be different. So, then, you're telling me that deaths and cases are more correlated to population density rather than Government lockdowns and other forced mandates, but when we talk about this everyone skirts around this and acts like Government lockdowns are why some states are doing good and some bad, but the data absolutely shows this not to be the case (which is my point). How about both matter. 2 places with similar population densities can have different numbers of cases/deaths/ect based on government action.
People tend to focus on government action because we can control government action. We can't realisticly half the population density of Florida. But we can close bars/restaurants/stores/gyms/amusement parks/ect.
Both would result in less viral spread. But only one we can control.
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On July 13 2020 18:49 Furikawari wrote:
Worth to note that since we dismissed some of the protective measures (and people are probably more careless) the number of cases is also raising in France. People celebrated victory far too early.
Same in Spain... and apparently it's unconstitutional for the autonomous communities to reinstate localized lockdowns: this can only be done with emergency powers, and only the federal government can declare a state of emergency. This is going to be such a political shitshow... and meanwhile of course, the corona virus is even less under control.
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On July 13 2020 12:40 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 07:52 JimmiC wrote:
My big issue is how there is no cohesive plan. Sweden took a different approach and it wasn't the best, but they had a plan, monitored the numbers and so on. I think you can be forgiven when we are all learning for having the wrong or imperfect plan.
The US has no federal leadership. It is about making headlines and owning the libs. So some states who have gone against it have recovered and otgers are so far behind who knows if they can ever get it under control. That's not true at all. Some of the worst states are places like MA, IL, NY, CA, NJ and some of the best states are places like SD, AK, ID, WV, NH, etc. So, to me there's no correlation to lockdown or Government forced mandates on closures, etc. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases
There are plenty of factors and statistics we can look at, but one of the most (if not *the most*) important thing to follow is the overall trend of coronavirus cases in a particular state. In other words, are things getting better or are things getting worse. The reason why I'm bringing this up here is because you've labeled NY and NJ as "some of the worst states", when in reality they were only bad a long, long time ago and have literally been the role models for how exactly you should tackle the coronavirus pandemic (i.e., swift and severe quarantine restrictions). The number of cases has fallen precipitously in both states, and are two of the only states that are on track to actually hit acceptable asymptotic lows, whereas most other states have a currently-increasing rate of coronavirus cases. The rate of change is what really matters, so it's important to look at the entire timeline for each state.
Here are the projections for NJ; see how everything is leveling off quite nicely?
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-jersey
The same reassuring data exists in NY, as well.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york
On the other hand, here's Florida, whose current data and projections are out of control.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida
Here is Texas, as well. In fact, many of the southern states, even if they started off light, have lost control.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas
The biggest, most immediate challenge I see coming, regardless of the state, is when schools reopen in August/September. Even though NJ and NY are currently doing significantly better than most other states, they absolutely should not be reopening in the fall. The fact that we're doing well means that we should continue doing what we're doing, rather than dropping the game plan. The only thing I can hope for, as a selfish NJ teacher, is that the states that open earlier than us (we open after Labor Day, whereas many other states open several weeks earlier) get hit predictably hard with coronavirus spikes when they reopen, which might give my governor some time to realize that maybe he shouldn't reopen schools at the beginning of the school year.
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On July 13 2020 22:24 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 18:49 Furikawari wrote:
Worth to note that since we dismissed some of the protective measures (and people are probably more careless) the number of cases is also raising in France. People celebrated victory far too early. Same in Spain... and apparently it's unconstitutional for the autonomous communities to reinstate localized lockdowns: this can only be done with emergency powers, and only the federal government can declare a state of emergency. This is going to be such a political shitshow... and meanwhile of course, the corona virus is even less under control.
I can't see any indication of cases rising in either France or Spain according to Worldmeters. Is there more reliable data out there?
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Hm, looking at these charts:
> http://www.dkriesel.com/corona
I don't see that increase.
Maybe Spain a little bit. But so far not looking really "impressive"
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On July 13 2020 18:22 warding wrote:It seems like in Europe there are essentially three different clusters of countries: - Countries that had a lot of cases but have contained the virus. Spain, France, Italy, Sweden, Belgium and The Netherlands. - Countries that managed to contain the virus early on at a low or intermediate lavel, but are now seeing an uptick in cases as restrictions have eased. The worst cases seem to be Portugal and Romania (and Israel if you go by the UEFA definition of Europe), but you're also seeing some activity now in Czechia, Austria, Switzerland or Greece. Nothing too worrisome, but in some cases enough to massively disrupt the tourism industry :'( . - Countries that have always done a good job at containing the virus, like Finland or Germany. I can only assume it is because human interaction was already culturally frowned upon in these countries pre-covid. My guess is that the first group have built up enough immunity to have some sort of wall against a new spike in cases (adding together serology positive, mask wearing indoors, keeping large crowds ban, behavioral change, possible cross-immunity, bla bla bla). I guess we're going to see a real test for this with what's happening in Texas and Florida.
What about Germany makes you not put them in the first category?
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Because you're an unfriendly bunch apparently aha
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Because we were by far not hit as hard as italy or spain, simply by looking at death numbers. We have similar amounts of tested cases, but by far lower death counts, which may lead to the conclusion that those countries have had a lot more cases which were simply not tested. Or our healthcare system managed to deal with the cases a lot better. In any case, our situation does look substantially different than that in italy.
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On July 14 2020 00:43 warding wrote:Show nested quote +On July 13 2020 22:24 Acrofales wrote:On July 13 2020 18:49 Furikawari wrote:
Worth to note that since we dismissed some of the protective measures (and people are probably more careless) the number of cases is also raising in France. People celebrated victory far too early. Same in Spain... and apparently it's unconstitutional for the autonomous communities to reinstate localized lockdowns: this can only be done with emergency powers, and only the federal government can declare a state of emergency. This is going to be such a political shitshow... and meanwhile of course, the corona virus is even less under control. I can't see any indication of cases rising in either France or Spain according to Worldmeters. Is there more reliable data out there?
Not really, it's just feelings at the moment:
* Major newspaper (Le Monde) reports increase in cluster numbers (more than 300 for the end of last week? seems crazy to me)
* Some high profile medical workers / officials are also expressing concern about the current situation.
Overall it looks like the politicians decided it had to be over for summer holidays. Apparently the virus does not agree.
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EPT
