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On July 12 2020 03:09 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2020 00:24 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 23:40 Danglars wrote:On July 11 2020 18:27 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 08:16 Lmui wrote:
Well, USA has done it.
1% of their population has officially been infected by coronavirus.
It's a record high day too, 65.6k and there's no sign of slowing it down anywhere.
14 states have over 1000 cases a day, which is up from IIRC 11 2 days ago.
There's going to be no brakes on the train until a vaccine is available, and even then, anti-vax people might slow down the deployment which would be brutal. And deaths are sadly but expectedly creeping up again. I'm sorry Danglars but you spent the last 2 weeks saying that we should not look at the amount of cases, but the amount of deaths and hospital capacity (which I more or less agree with, but it was clear the increase in positive cases was not only due to increased testing). Well now it is going up again, as "scheduled", around 3 weeks after the increase in cases started again. From an average of 5/600deaths/day in the past 3 or 4 weeks, this week was a steady 900+, each day of the week. Will you be again moving goalposts as you have done in the USPol or here by now saying that "flattening the curve" was the only point of lockdown? What is the next goal ? While it is not entirely wrong, once the curve is flattened, the aim should not be just let it roam free again. Last month you were arguing that the death/million in the US that was at that point a lot lower than the EU and framing that as a "see, we're fine". Unsurprisingly since the rate of deaths in the US is still at a very high point, it has crept up and is now nearing France's. Still a ways off from Italy or Spain though. The point of lockdown was to stop the increase, bring the situation back to manageable levels, and hopefully be able to track cases and spreading again, to be able to confidently reopen the country and live something akin to a normal life (we managed it in Europe mostly, the US could have done it with more leadership towards the "problematic" part of the country, which happens to have its leader in power. If he had instructed people to take it seriously, a good deal of them would have...). If you only flatten it, hospitals can cope for a few monthes more, but then you need to keep it flat. That is NOT happening. Overruning your hospitals with a 3-month delay is... not a goal. That means your economy is impeded even more seriously for a longer period of time. A serious, all-country, 2 months lockdown would have saved dozens of thousands of lives, really lowered to trackable levels the virus, and allowed a gradual, confident reopening with a better economic result. I really hope that you can come to agree on that point. The main reason this did not happen is one person. ---------------------------------------------------------- In other news, France is still looking good but there are some worrying metrics. The amount of calls to SOS Medecins on Covid suspicions have crept back up again from 150/day to around 300/day. This does not reflect (yet?) as people in hospitals and in ICU are still lowering every day (-115 to ~7k and -16 to ~500 respectively). However this is worrying. Testing is still done at very low level, which I am angry about. It seems we still have a shortage... My town and neighbors had prepared a large-scale testing, the state said "OK, prepare", and when everything was ready, they were told that there was no way they could be provided with several thousands tests. In Guyana, the colleague (next office) of my brother in law is ill with covid symptoms, has been sent home (no test...???!!), and the rest of the team still has to work (no tests either). That's... We definitely have a big issue on testing. They are, as they were 3 months ago, still only testing people in discovered clusters, and not isolated cases. Because they are probably not idiots, that mean they don't really have a choice, thus that we still can't get our hands on tests. This is on the government. On the good side, there's been an increase in cases in Mayenne, so the govt wants to test the whole département in a month or so. It's a good idea, but seeing what I just said about testing, I highly doubt they can achieve it. On another good side, our testing positive % is still very good at 1.22%. The R0 though, has been slowly creeping up and is now >1. You can view the metrics here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA Lol at the pre-accusation of goalpost shifting. Never change! The hospitalization growth and death growth show a handful of states need to shut down again to limit the spreading rate. Your “the point of lockdown was to stop the increase” is close. It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown. The covid problem is that it denies easy explanations, like states that opened too early are the problem right now: (Thread) It's not a pre-accusation, you've done that twice already... Seeing the deaths go up again, I can only be happy that you say some states should re-shutdown, so it seems you are not changing it again. However, with the right mindset from the beginning, or at least when it was obvious, you could have learned from the EU and do only one, serious, country-wide shutdown. It's less damage on the economy. (not talking about the future, who knows how it will evolve in 4-6 months). And good luck getting your population to shutdown every 2 months. This is the kind of thing that works once, maybe twice if you're lucky. Here would be the same, the second time around, confidence in politicians would be down in the gutter and you would have to harshly enforce it instead of relying on the good will of the people. What do you mean it's "far too transmissible to have hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown". Does Europe exist to you ? What do you think we've been doing these past four months ??? Take any large european country numbers currently, adapt to the population of the US and you get around 2.5k cases a day and maybe 100 deaths. That's in countries where hospitals were overloaded and people dying untreated. It IS possible, when you do it seriously enough. Maybe you meant Europe has brought down the increase in the increase (as I say in my post, the rate of increase)? That's really the only way I can sensibly interpret this. Some of the Europeans in this thread have to tell me about the testing rates. Every source I see has absurd numbers or no numbers available. So it leads to a big question mark in comparisons, but maybe there's better sources I haven't found. Eg (Which is to say, what are the error bounds on statistics like The US 14-day death rate is lower than Sweden's and on par with the UK even though our case rate is twice Sweden's and several times higher than the UK. 1 in 8 identified COVID cases in Europe has resulted in death while in the US, that number is 1 in 24 I'd do the throat-clearing on nationwide mandatory shutdown vs state-by-state consideration, but I think I've already written on it recently enough, and it veers into political should/ought. Show nested quote +If it was not feasable in the US that's solely because the leadership has been lacking. If Trump had properly explained to his fans that they could do something "to keep america great, think about your elders, protect yourself by covering your face" or whatever he could cook up, a good deal of people would have just listened to their leader. Instead, he went ape shit and still hasn't worn a mask publicly ONCE (I believe that was planned for today ?). Thus the governors took no decisive action because going against Trump is very bad for your political life in the republican party of today. That crisis is on him.
To have a shutdown work countrywide in the US, you need cooperation from all levels of state and federal executive and across the aisle. Otherwise states will play it solo, as they have done. Without leadership and a vision to give the people one target, everyone at any level does its own thing. Political job performance is a political question, and I've already run afoul of that in this thread. I'm watching places like Colorado, because maybe they'll go the way of TX and AZ with huge rises. It's too early to tell. Colorado was another early-reopening state, but has either missed what is happening in TX AZ, or it was just delayed. California went back up with lockdown orders. No singing/chanting in church, more mandatory mask orders, other industry-specific tightening. My personal observation is that indoor mask use is incredibly high in public, and outdoor mask use incredibly low. At my job, only two people out of the ~60 I met in a day were not wearing a mask. The question on my mind is what metric, for the states that have re-entered a high degree of lockdown, should be used to begin phased reopening. I'm sure it couldn't possible be that the US is underreporting deaths.
Nah, that doesn't make sense, why would a country where large parts still pretend the virus doesn't exist or is a threat possibly attempt to hide just how many people are dying to it...
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On July 12 2020 03:35 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2020 03:09 Danglars wrote:On July 12 2020 00:24 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 23:40 Danglars wrote:On July 11 2020 18:27 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 08:16 Lmui wrote:
Well, USA has done it.
1% of their population has officially been infected by coronavirus.
It's a record high day too, 65.6k and there's no sign of slowing it down anywhere.
14 states have over 1000 cases a day, which is up from IIRC 11 2 days ago.
There's going to be no brakes on the train until a vaccine is available, and even then, anti-vax people might slow down the deployment which would be brutal. And deaths are sadly but expectedly creeping up again. I'm sorry Danglars but you spent the last 2 weeks saying that we should not look at the amount of cases, but the amount of deaths and hospital capacity (which I more or less agree with, but it was clear the increase in positive cases was not only due to increased testing). Well now it is going up again, as "scheduled", around 3 weeks after the increase in cases started again. From an average of 5/600deaths/day in the past 3 or 4 weeks, this week was a steady 900+, each day of the week. Will you be again moving goalposts as you have done in the USPol or here by now saying that "flattening the curve" was the only point of lockdown? What is the next goal ? While it is not entirely wrong, once the curve is flattened, the aim should not be just let it roam free again. Last month you were arguing that the death/million in the US that was at that point a lot lower than the EU and framing that as a "see, we're fine". Unsurprisingly since the rate of deaths in the US is still at a very high point, it has crept up and is now nearing France's. Still a ways off from Italy or Spain though. The point of lockdown was to stop the increase, bring the situation back to manageable levels, and hopefully be able to track cases and spreading again, to be able to confidently reopen the country and live something akin to a normal life (we managed it in Europe mostly, the US could have done it with more leadership towards the "problematic" part of the country, which happens to have its leader in power. If he had instructed people to take it seriously, a good deal of them would have...). If you only flatten it, hospitals can cope for a few monthes more, but then you need to keep it flat. That is NOT happening. Overruning your hospitals with a 3-month delay is... not a goal. That means your economy is impeded even more seriously for a longer period of time. A serious, all-country, 2 months lockdown would have saved dozens of thousands of lives, really lowered to trackable levels the virus, and allowed a gradual, confident reopening with a better economic result. I really hope that you can come to agree on that point. The main reason this did not happen is one person. ---------------------------------------------------------- In other news, France is still looking good but there are some worrying metrics. The amount of calls to SOS Medecins on Covid suspicions have crept back up again from 150/day to around 300/day. This does not reflect (yet?) as people in hospitals and in ICU are still lowering every day (-115 to ~7k and -16 to ~500 respectively). However this is worrying. Testing is still done at very low level, which I am angry about. It seems we still have a shortage... My town and neighbors had prepared a large-scale testing, the state said "OK, prepare", and when everything was ready, they were told that there was no way they could be provided with several thousands tests. In Guyana, the colleague (next office) of my brother in law is ill with covid symptoms, has been sent home (no test...???!!), and the rest of the team still has to work (no tests either). That's... We definitely have a big issue on testing. They are, as they were 3 months ago, still only testing people in discovered clusters, and not isolated cases. Because they are probably not idiots, that mean they don't really have a choice, thus that we still can't get our hands on tests. This is on the government. On the good side, there's been an increase in cases in Mayenne, so the govt wants to test the whole département in a month or so. It's a good idea, but seeing what I just said about testing, I highly doubt they can achieve it. On another good side, our testing positive % is still very good at 1.22%. The R0 though, has been slowly creeping up and is now >1. You can view the metrics here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA Lol at the pre-accusation of goalpost shifting. Never change! The hospitalization growth and death growth show a handful of states need to shut down again to limit the spreading rate. Your “the point of lockdown was to stop the increase” is close. It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown. The covid problem is that it denies easy explanations, like states that opened too early are the problem right now: https://twitter.com/kevinwglass/status/1280232181017739264(Thread) It's not a pre-accusation, you've done that twice already... Seeing the deaths go up again, I can only be happy that you say some states should re-shutdown, so it seems you are not changing it again. However, with the right mindset from the beginning, or at least when it was obvious, you could have learned from the EU and do only one, serious, country-wide shutdown. It's less damage on the economy. (not talking about the future, who knows how it will evolve in 4-6 months). And good luck getting your population to shutdown every 2 months. This is the kind of thing that works once, maybe twice if you're lucky. Here would be the same, the second time around, confidence in politicians would be down in the gutter and you would have to harshly enforce it instead of relying on the good will of the people. What do you mean it's "far too transmissible to have hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown". Does Europe exist to you ? What do you think we've been doing these past four months ??? Take any large european country numbers currently, adapt to the population of the US and you get around 2.5k cases a day and maybe 100 deaths. That's in countries where hospitals were overloaded and people dying untreated. It IS possible, when you do it seriously enough. Maybe you meant Europe has brought down the increase in the increase (as I say in my post, the rate of increase)? That's really the only way I can sensibly interpret this. Some of the Europeans in this thread have to tell me about the testing rates. Every source I see has absurd numbers or no numbers available. So it leads to a big question mark in comparisons, but maybe there's better sources I haven't found. Eg (Which is to say, what are the error bounds on statistics like The US 14-day death rate is lower than Sweden's and on par with the UK even though our case rate is twice Sweden's and several times higher than the UK. 1 in 8 identified COVID cases in Europe has resulted in death while in the US, that number is 1 in 24 I'd do the throat-clearing on nationwide mandatory shutdown vs state-by-state consideration, but I think I've already written on it recently enough, and it veers into political should/ought. If it was not feasable in the US that's solely because the leadership has been lacking. If Trump had properly explained to his fans that they could do something "to keep america great, think about your elders, protect yourself by covering your face" or whatever he could cook up, a good deal of people would have just listened to their leader. Instead, he went ape shit and still hasn't worn a mask publicly ONCE (I believe that was planned for today ?). Thus the governors took no decisive action because going against Trump is very bad for your political life in the republican party of today. That crisis is on him.
To have a shutdown work countrywide in the US, you need cooperation from all levels of state and federal executive and across the aisle. Otherwise states will play it solo, as they have done. Without leadership and a vision to give the people one target, everyone at any level does its own thing. Political job performance is a political question, and I've already run afoul of that in this thread. I'm watching places like Colorado, because maybe they'll go the way of TX and AZ with huge rises. It's too early to tell. Colorado was another early-reopening state, but has either missed what is happening in TX AZ, or it was just delayed. California went back up with lockdown orders. No singing/chanting in church, more mandatory mask orders, other industry-specific tightening. My personal observation is that indoor mask use is incredibly high in public, and outdoor mask use incredibly low. At my job, only two people out of the ~60 I met in a day were not wearing a mask. The question on my mind is what metric, for the states that have re-entered a high degree of lockdown, should be used to begin phased reopening. I'm sure it couldn't possible be that the US is underreporting deaths. Nah, that doesn't make sense, why would a country where large parts still pretend the virus doesn't exist or is a threat possibly attempt to hide just how many people are dying to it...
Conspiracy theory. See thread note.
I've seen unproven allegations, and some weird classification regarding classifying nursing home deaths. I have very little time for people that doubt the data when they dislike the data.
On July 12 2020 03:18 Simberto wrote:I found this: https://de.statista.com/infografik/21211/anzahl-der-durchgefuehrten-coronavirus-tests-je-1-mio-einwohner-in-laendern-weltweit/regarding the number of tests per million (total until july 7th). Source is in German, but the graph should be readable. Apparently data is from John Hopkins University Comparing total numbers, not per million, is obviously absurd since the US is larger than any single country in the EU. The per million number shows the US right in the middle. Also, at least in Germany the current numbers don't seem to be limited by test availability, but by the amount of candidates for testing. We already test people with symptoms, and anyone who has been close to anyone with covid. Here in bavaria, anyone else who wants to get tested can just get tested, too. But since we don't have a lot of active cases, that is still far below our testing capacity.
Thanks for the source.
I was also using scaled-to-population numbers, such as daily testing per 1,000. The advantage of daily tracked across time is to help ascertain how well countries know their actual cases. The US sucked ass at the start, with major CDC failures as a big part. The data you've linked only looks to be cumulative, which doesn't aid comparisons such as June and later or July and later.
On July 12 2020 03:28 JimmiC wrote:
@danglars I looked up colorado's numbers and they are really low compared to other places we are talking about. Not even in the same ball park.
Which kind of complicates narratives on "look at how bad X states are doing, what dummies for opening up so fast so soon" with examples of states that opened up around the same time and AREN'T experiencing the same rises and accompanying media feeding frenzy. The easiest examples are Colorado, for why the governor isn't getting the same hatred directed his way, and California, that's also experiencing increases but that didn't fully open up.
Data is messy and please doubt people that have neat little explanatory bows to wrap it all up with.
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On July 12 2020 03:09 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2020 00:24 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 23:40 Danglars wrote:On July 11 2020 18:27 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 08:16 Lmui wrote:
Well, USA has done it.
1% of their population has officially been infected by coronavirus.
It's a record high day too, 65.6k and there's no sign of slowing it down anywhere.
14 states have over 1000 cases a day, which is up from IIRC 11 2 days ago.
There's going to be no brakes on the train until a vaccine is available, and even then, anti-vax people might slow down the deployment which would be brutal. And deaths are sadly but expectedly creeping up again. I'm sorry Danglars but you spent the last 2 weeks saying that we should not look at the amount of cases, but the amount of deaths and hospital capacity (which I more or less agree with, but it was clear the increase in positive cases was not only due to increased testing). Well now it is going up again, as "scheduled", around 3 weeks after the increase in cases started again. From an average of 5/600deaths/day in the past 3 or 4 weeks, this week was a steady 900+, each day of the week. Will you be again moving goalposts as you have done in the USPol or here by now saying that "flattening the curve" was the only point of lockdown? What is the next goal ? While it is not entirely wrong, once the curve is flattened, the aim should not be just let it roam free again. Last month you were arguing that the death/million in the US that was at that point a lot lower than the EU and framing that as a "see, we're fine". Unsurprisingly since the rate of deaths in the US is still at a very high point, it has crept up and is now nearing France's. Still a ways off from Italy or Spain though. The point of lockdown was to stop the increase, bring the situation back to manageable levels, and hopefully be able to track cases and spreading again, to be able to confidently reopen the country and live something akin to a normal life (we managed it in Europe mostly, the US could have done it with more leadership towards the "problematic" part of the country, which happens to have its leader in power. If he had instructed people to take it seriously, a good deal of them would have...). If you only flatten it, hospitals can cope for a few monthes more, but then you need to keep it flat. That is NOT happening. Overruning your hospitals with a 3-month delay is... not a goal. That means your economy is impeded even more seriously for a longer period of time. A serious, all-country, 2 months lockdown would have saved dozens of thousands of lives, really lowered to trackable levels the virus, and allowed a gradual, confident reopening with a better economic result. I really hope that you can come to agree on that point. The main reason this did not happen is one person. ---------------------------------------------------------- In other news, France is still looking good but there are some worrying metrics. The amount of calls to SOS Medecins on Covid suspicions have crept back up again from 150/day to around 300/day. This does not reflect (yet?) as people in hospitals and in ICU are still lowering every day (-115 to ~7k and -16 to ~500 respectively). However this is worrying. Testing is still done at very low level, which I am angry about. It seems we still have a shortage... My town and neighbors had prepared a large-scale testing, the state said "OK, prepare", and when everything was ready, they were told that there was no way they could be provided with several thousands tests. In Guyana, the colleague (next office) of my brother in law is ill with covid symptoms, has been sent home (no test...???!!), and the rest of the team still has to work (no tests either). That's... We definitely have a big issue on testing. They are, as they were 3 months ago, still only testing people in discovered clusters, and not isolated cases. Because they are probably not idiots, that mean they don't really have a choice, thus that we still can't get our hands on tests. This is on the government. On the good side, there's been an increase in cases in Mayenne, so the govt wants to test the whole département in a month or so. It's a good idea, but seeing what I just said about testing, I highly doubt they can achieve it. On another good side, our testing positive % is still very good at 1.22%. The R0 though, has been slowly creeping up and is now >1. You can view the metrics here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA Lol at the pre-accusation of goalpost shifting. Never change! The hospitalization growth and death growth show a handful of states need to shut down again to limit the spreading rate. Your “the point of lockdown was to stop the increase” is close. It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown. The covid problem is that it denies easy explanations, like states that opened too early are the problem right now: https://twitter.com/kevinwglass/status/1280232181017739264(Thread) It's not a pre-accusation, you've done that twice already... Seeing the deaths go up again, I can only be happy that you say some states should re-shutdown, so it seems you are not changing it again. However, with the right mindset from the beginning, or at least when it was obvious, you could have learned from the EU and do only one, serious, country-wide shutdown. It's less damage on the economy. (not talking about the future, who knows how it will evolve in 4-6 months). And good luck getting your population to shutdown every 2 months. This is the kind of thing that works once, maybe twice if you're lucky. Here would be the same, the second time around, confidence in politicians would be down in the gutter and you would have to harshly enforce it instead of relying on the good will of the people. What do you mean it's "far too transmissible to have hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown". Does Europe exist to you ? What do you think we've been doing these past four months ??? Take any large european country numbers currently, adapt to the population of the US and you get around 2.5k cases a day and maybe 100 deaths. That's in countries where hospitals were overloaded and people dying untreated. It IS possible, when you do it seriously enough. Maybe you meant Europe has brought down the increase in the increase (as I say in my post, the rate of increase)? That's really the only way I can sensibly interpret this. Some of the Europeans in this thread have to tell me about the testing rates. Every source I see has absurd numbers or no numbers available. So it leads to a big question mark in comparisons, but maybe there's better sources I haven't found. Eg (Which is to say, what are the error bounds on statistics like The US 14-day death rate is lower than Sweden's and on par with the UK even though our case rate is twice Sweden's and several times higher than the UK. 1 in 8 identified COVID cases in Europe has resulted in death while in the US, that number is 1 in 24 I'd do the throat-clearing on nationwide mandatory shutdown vs state-by-state consideration, but I think I've already written on it recently enough, and it veers into political should/ought. Show nested quote +If it was not feasable in the US that's solely because the leadership has been lacking. If Trump had properly explained to his fans that they could do something "to keep america great, think about your elders, protect yourself by covering your face" or whatever he could cook up, a good deal of people would have just listened to their leader. Instead, he went ape shit and still hasn't worn a mask publicly ONCE (I believe that was planned for today ?). Thus the governors took no decisive action because going against Trump is very bad for your political life in the republican party of today. That crisis is on him.
To have a shutdown work countrywide in the US, you need cooperation from all levels of state and federal executive and across the aisle. Otherwise states will play it solo, as they have done. Without leadership and a vision to give the people one target, everyone at any level does its own thing. Political job performance is a political question, and I've already run afoul of that in this thread. I'm watching places like Colorado, because maybe they'll go the way of TX and AZ with huge rises. It's too early to tell. Colorado was another early-reopening state, but has either missed what is happening in TX AZ, or it was just delayed. California went back up with lockdown orders. No singing/chanting in church, more mandatory mask orders, other industry-specific tightening. My personal observation is that indoor mask use is incredibly high in public, and outdoor mask use incredibly low. At my job, only two people out of the ~60 I met in a day were not wearing a mask. The question on my mind is what metric, for the states that have re-entered a high degree of lockdown, should be used to begin phased reopening.
I'll drop the political part then, though it's an integral part to what then happens in the country... Well.
In my own post a few pages back (quoted), I was harshly criticizing France's testing, so you don't really need to look further. However, if you need to compare between countries, it's best to use death numbers (and not death rates relative to positive cases since there is a discrepancy in testing between countries) and ICU numbers.
It makes sense that the US has a lower death rate/tested, since you are testing A LOT. However, you are still not testing enough since a lot of states have really high rates of positive cases (15%+). As I said earlier, for example, in France, where we only test (sadly) after medical prescriptions due to symptoms, we are around 1.2% positive cases, still going down.
https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-des-tests?location=FRA
Sadly, we are also pretty bad at reporting testing numbers as you can see in the link, but at least we get the rates :
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/xlDb43g.jpg)
I don't really understand what you say there :
Maybe you meant Europe has brought down the increase in the increase (as I say in my post, the rate of increase)? That's really the only way I can sensibly interpret this.
When I asked if you forgot about Europe, that's when you assume there is no way to stop progression :
It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown.
"Flattening the curve" just means that you delay the peak, while starting at the beginning of the outbreak or as close as you can. However, it was already too late to do that in Europe, the rate of increase was too steep and hospitals were already at capacity or over them after barely a month. There was a need to put a hard stop. And it worked. We are now below 10% use of ICU capacity, coming down from 140%. And even after reopening for 2 months, and a near-full one but mass gatherings for more than a month, that figure is still lowering.
It's not just that the rate of increase has been brought down, the whole progression of the virus has been lowered back to local cluster tracking and local actions. It is definitely possible and most european countries achieved it, and, for now after reopening, it's still not really going upwards again. It can be seen in hospital and ICU figures, as well as daily deaths (though those lag even more than that hospital admissions).
So I don't understand when you say there was no way, and I point you to Europe as a counter-example. Now maybe you were saying there was no way *for the US* due to unique circumstances ?
The stark difference I see with the US is the bastard response across the country, completely disorganised here and there, which means as people can travel unimpeded between states, you are nearly never going to be able to control the spread if measures are different in every state ? For several that manage to bring it down, others are open and increasing again because shutdowns were partial, spilling again into the "healed" one. It's a neverending circle and the damage done will be more than with a single hard response across the country. It is also going to bring jealousy between states, etc etc.
NY can somewhat control incoming planes, but are they going to checkpoint the highways to block people from coming in or out ? I doubt it, it's not like Europe. So a coordinated response would have been needed.
But it is definitely possible to have a stop in increase through lockdown.
On July 12 2020 03:35 Gorsameth wrote:
I'm sure it couldn't possible be that the US is underreporting deaths.
Nah, that doesn't make sense, why would a country where large parts still pretend the virus doesn't exist or is a threat possibly attempt to hide just how many people are dying to it...
Please don't go there.
It's very hard to trick open data and coordinate hiding deaths across 50 states. If the Trump admin was efficient enough to do that, we'd know.
Plus it's too conspiracy-like with absolutely not even a speck of a proof, even if there were questionable moves from some care homes refusing to inform their resident's families.
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On July 12 2020 04:31 JimmiC wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 12 2020 04:14 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2020 03:09 Danglars wrote:On July 12 2020 00:24 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 23:40 Danglars wrote:On July 11 2020 18:27 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 08:16 Lmui wrote:
Well, USA has done it.
1% of their population has officially been infected by coronavirus.
It's a record high day too, 65.6k and there's no sign of slowing it down anywhere.
14 states have over 1000 cases a day, which is up from IIRC 11 2 days ago.
There's going to be no brakes on the train until a vaccine is available, and even then, anti-vax people might slow down the deployment which would be brutal. And deaths are sadly but expectedly creeping up again. I'm sorry Danglars but you spent the last 2 weeks saying that we should not look at the amount of cases, but the amount of deaths and hospital capacity (which I more or less agree with, but it was clear the increase in positive cases was not only due to increased testing). Well now it is going up again, as "scheduled", around 3 weeks after the increase in cases started again. From an average of 5/600deaths/day in the past 3 or 4 weeks, this week was a steady 900+, each day of the week. Will you be again moving goalposts as you have done in the USPol or here by now saying that "flattening the curve" was the only point of lockdown? What is the next goal ? While it is not entirely wrong, once the curve is flattened, the aim should not be just let it roam free again. Last month you were arguing that the death/million in the US that was at that point a lot lower than the EU and framing that as a "see, we're fine". Unsurprisingly since the rate of deaths in the US is still at a very high point, it has crept up and is now nearing France's. Still a ways off from Italy or Spain though. The point of lockdown was to stop the increase, bring the situation back to manageable levels, and hopefully be able to track cases and spreading again, to be able to confidently reopen the country and live something akin to a normal life (we managed it in Europe mostly, the US could have done it with more leadership towards the "problematic" part of the country, which happens to have its leader in power. If he had instructed people to take it seriously, a good deal of them would have...). If you only flatten it, hospitals can cope for a few monthes more, but then you need to keep it flat. That is NOT happening. Overruning your hospitals with a 3-month delay is... not a goal. That means your economy is impeded even more seriously for a longer period of time. A serious, all-country, 2 months lockdown would have saved dozens of thousands of lives, really lowered to trackable levels the virus, and allowed a gradual, confident reopening with a better economic result. I really hope that you can come to agree on that point. The main reason this did not happen is one person. ---------------------------------------------------------- In other news, France is still looking good but there are some worrying metrics. The amount of calls to SOS Medecins on Covid suspicions have crept back up again from 150/day to around 300/day. This does not reflect (yet?) as people in hospitals and in ICU are still lowering every day (-115 to ~7k and -16 to ~500 respectively). However this is worrying. Testing is still done at very low level, which I am angry about. It seems we still have a shortage... My town and neighbors had prepared a large-scale testing, the state said "OK, prepare", and when everything was ready, they were told that there was no way they could be provided with several thousands tests. In Guyana, the colleague (next office) of my brother in law is ill with covid symptoms, has been sent home (no test...???!!), and the rest of the team still has to work (no tests either). That's... We definitely have a big issue on testing. They are, as they were 3 months ago, still only testing people in discovered clusters, and not isolated cases. Because they are probably not idiots, that mean they don't really have a choice, thus that we still can't get our hands on tests. This is on the government. On the good side, there's been an increase in cases in Mayenne, so the govt wants to test the whole département in a month or so. It's a good idea, but seeing what I just said about testing, I highly doubt they can achieve it. On another good side, our testing positive % is still very good at 1.22%. The R0 though, has been slowly creeping up and is now >1. You can view the metrics here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA Lol at the pre-accusation of goalpost shifting. Never change! The hospitalization growth and death growth show a handful of states need to shut down again to limit the spreading rate. Your “the point of lockdown was to stop the increase” is close. It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown. The covid problem is that it denies easy explanations, like states that opened too early are the problem right now: https://twitter.com/kevinwglass/status/1280232181017739264(Thread) It's not a pre-accusation, you've done that twice already... Seeing the deaths go up again, I can only be happy that you say some states should re-shutdown, so it seems you are not changing it again. However, with the right mindset from the beginning, or at least when it was obvious, you could have learned from the EU and do only one, serious, country-wide shutdown. It's less damage on the economy. (not talking about the future, who knows how it will evolve in 4-6 months). And good luck getting your population to shutdown every 2 months. This is the kind of thing that works once, maybe twice if you're lucky. Here would be the same, the second time around, confidence in politicians would be down in the gutter and you would have to harshly enforce it instead of relying on the good will of the people. What do you mean it's "far too transmissible to have hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown". Does Europe exist to you ? What do you think we've been doing these past four months ??? Take any large european country numbers currently, adapt to the population of the US and you get around 2.5k cases a day and maybe 100 deaths. That's in countries where hospitals were overloaded and people dying untreated. It IS possible, when you do it seriously enough. Maybe you meant Europe has brought down the increase in the increase (as I say in my post, the rate of increase)? That's really the only way I can sensibly interpret this. Some of the Europeans in this thread have to tell me about the testing rates. Every source I see has absurd numbers or no numbers available. So it leads to a big question mark in comparisons, but maybe there's better sources I haven't found. Eg https://twitter.com/KevinWGlass/status/1281632175494963200(Which is to say, what are the error bounds on statistics like The US 14-day death rate is lower than Sweden's and on par with the UK even though our case rate is twice Sweden's and several times higher than the UK. 1 in 8 identified COVID cases in Europe has resulted in death while in the US, that number is 1 in 24 I'd do the throat-clearing on nationwide mandatory shutdown vs state-by-state consideration, but I think I've already written on it recently enough, and it veers into political should/ought. If it was not feasable in the US that's solely because the leadership has been lacking. If Trump had properly explained to his fans that they could do something "to keep america great, think about your elders, protect yourself by covering your face" or whatever he could cook up, a good deal of people would have just listened to their leader. Instead, he went ape shit and still hasn't worn a mask publicly ONCE (I believe that was planned for today ?). Thus the governors took no decisive action because going against Trump is very bad for your political life in the republican party of today. That crisis is on him.
To have a shutdown work countrywide in the US, you need cooperation from all levels of state and federal executive and across the aisle. Otherwise states will play it solo, as they have done. Without leadership and a vision to give the people one target, everyone at any level does its own thing. Political job performance is a political question, and I've already run afoul of that in this thread. I'm watching places like Colorado, because maybe they'll go the way of TX and AZ with huge rises. It's too early to tell. Colorado was another early-reopening state, but has either missed what is happening in TX AZ, or it was just delayed. California went back up with lockdown orders. No singing/chanting in church, more mandatory mask orders, other industry-specific tightening. My personal observation is that indoor mask use is incredibly high in public, and outdoor mask use incredibly low. At my job, only two people out of the ~60 I met in a day were not wearing a mask. The question on my mind is what metric, for the states that have re-entered a high degree of lockdown, should be used to begin phased reopening. I'll drop the political part then, though it's an integral part to what then happens in the country... Well. In my own post a few pages back (quoted), I was harshly criticizing France's testing, so you don't really need to look further. However, if you need to compare between countries, it's best to use death numbers (and not death rates relative to positive cases since there is a discrepancy in testing between countries) and ICU numbers. It makes sense that the US has a lower death rate/tested, since you are testing A LOT. However, you are still not testing enough since a lot of states have really high rates of positive cases (15%+). As I said earlier, for example, in France, where we only test (sadly) after medical prescriptions due to symptoms, we are around 1.2% positive cases, still going down. https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-des-tests?location=FRASadly, we are also pretty bad at reporting testing numbers as you can see in the link, but at least we get the rates : I don't really understand what you say there : Show nested quote +Maybe you meant Europe has brought down the increase in the increase (as I say in my post, the rate of increase)? That's really the only way I can sensibly interpret this. When I asked if you forgot about Europe, that's when you assume there is no way to stop progression : Show nested quote +It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown. "Flattening the curve" just means that you delay the peak, while starting at the beginning of the outbreak or as close as you can. However, it was already too late to do that in Europe, the rate of increase was too steep and hospitals were already at capacity or over them after barely a month. There was a need to put a hard stop. And it worked. We are now below 10% use of ICU capacity, coming down from 140%. And even after reopening for 2 months, and a near-full one but mass gatherings for more than a month, that figure is still lowering. It's not just that the rate of increase has been brought down, the whole progression of the virus has been lowered back to local cluster tracking and local actions. It is definitely possible and most european countries achieved it, and, for now after reopening, it's still not really going upwards again. It can be seen in hospital and ICU figures, as well as daily deaths (though those lag even more than that hospital admissions). So I don't understand when you say there was no way, and I point you to Europe as a counter-example. Now maybe you were saying there was no way *for the US* due to unique circumstances ? The stark difference I see with the US is the bastard response across the country, completely disorganised here and there, which means as people can travel unimpeded between states, you are nearly never going to be able to control the spread if measures are different in every state ? For several that manage to bring it down, others are open and increasing again because shutdowns were partial, spilling again into the "healed" one. It's a neverending circle and the damage done will be more than with a single hard response across the country. It is also going to bring jealousy between states, etc etc. NY can somewhat control incoming planes, but are they going to checkpoint the highways to block people from coming in or out ? I doubt it, it's not like Europe. So a coordinated response would have been needed. But it is definitely possible to have a stop in increase through lockdown. Show nested quote +On July 12 2020 03:35 Gorsameth wrote:
I'm sure it couldn't possible be that the US is underreporting deaths.
Nah, that doesn't make sense, why would a country where large parts still pretend the virus doesn't exist or is a threat possibly attempt to hide just how many people are dying to it...
Show nested quote +Please don't go there.
It's very hard to trick open data and coordinate hiding deaths across 50 states. If the Trump admin was efficient enough to do that, we'd know.
Plus it's too conspiracy-like with absolutely not even a speck of a proof, even if there were questionable moves from some care homes refusing to inform their resident's families.
I think there is a chance that some states are under reporting. I don't think it is some coordinated effort. I think there is also many countries that are, some on purpose most just because they don't have the resources. There is already been people who have tried to alert the press about issues and have been fired and are seeking whistle blower protection and earlier on there were stats of some states having reporting over 8x the pneumonia of past years averages. I think people at all level of government are under pressure from all over to get the economy back up and tell their people that they are safe. And in the Us the pressure is heightened by it becoming a political partisan issue. (the whistle blower herself days she does not think it was a coordinated effort) https://www.npr.org/2020/06/14/876584284/fired-florida-data-scientist-launches-a-coronavirus-dashboard-of-her-ownhttps://cleantechnica.com/2020/06/03/pneumonia-deaths-flu-deaths-jump-enormously-in-usa/edit: I should also point out that NPR article came out before Florida looked as bad as it does now. Which gives it even more credence.
While what you say is not false at a state level, I'd still like you to refrain. We are trying to look at statistics and response, and if we start speculating that figures are hidden before having clear answers (I'd argue at least several whistleblowers, hearings or a full blown investigation in the claims), there will be no end to it. If there are truly things that are being hidden, it will come to light pretty fast due to the current extreme partisanship. Longtime employees (not just one) are going to come out en masse (well, I do hope so !). Morgue employees connecting dots, counties, doctors etc... Even states are not monolithic.
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Well the CDC publishes numbers. It's not an intentional hiding of numbers. That doesn't stop them from undertesting, underreporting at State levels, but the deaths is pretty hard to fudge.
NY Times has a good interactive on what the numbers/differences are.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html
In general, it's ~20% higher than the official counts, because people delay seeking care for urgent issues, people contract covid, but die from other causes and all sorts of other areas.
You can easily look at the state by state testing to see the gulf between states where it's exploding and where it's not.
Colorado has a ~6% positive rate at the moment. Higher than countries which have covid under control, but not extreme.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/colorado
Florida has increased from a 5% positive rate 1 month ago, to a 20% positive rate, despite testing more.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida
You can see the same rise in Arizona and South Carolina, and a ton of the other top states that didn't get testing positive rates below 10%.
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Disney World in FL is apparently reopening. The lines are not great. Reporter wanted to see how conditions were inside the park and got so freaked out by the lines outside that she left before entering.
Tweets/Photos from her
Whole thing seems insane.
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Wait. Opening. Now. Not closing. Opening. Disneyland. In Florida.
Who thought that that is a good idea? Because it seems like an obviously really, really bad idea. This seems like something that should be criminal.
And why would anyone go there in the middle of a pandemic which is currently going exponential?
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On July 12 2020 05:15 JimmiC wrote:It does, I think the big problem of places like that is the people who go are going to be those who are not scared and likely not taking other precautions. So you are putting a bunch of high risk behavior people in the same spot. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Sounds like freedom to me. /s
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Seeker
Where dat snitch at?37043 Posts
As a Floridian, I just want to make it clear that it’s DISNEY WORLD! Disneyland is the park in California.
I will be handing out warnings to anyone saying Disneyland from here on out.
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On July 12 2020 07:39 Seeker wrote:
As a Floridian, I just want to make it clear that it’s DISNEY WORLD! Disneyland is the park in California.
I will be handing out warnings to anyone saying Disneyland from here on out.
As a Californian, Downtown Disney (shops & restaurants, not part of paid park, no roller coasters) just opened.
So when you're reading articles about Disney World reopening and Disneyland reopening, I can understand the confusion.
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On July 12 2020 07:39 Seeker wrote:
As a Floridian, I just want to make it clear that it’s DISNEY WORLD! Disneyland is the park in California.
I will be handing out warnings to anyone saying Disneyland from here on out.
My bad. I get them mixed up all the time
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Looks like India is imposing the most localized of lockdowns, months after their poor handling of the virus has led to them being solidly in the top worst countries by disease impact. They had something a lot like a time-bounded lockdown a few months ago, then as cases started to spike they reopened - no surprise that it's solidly at the top of the infection list. Testing is quite low relative to the size of the country as well; all indications are that if there isn't already a widespread infection disaster, there soon will be, and a couple of cities being locked down won't stop it.
India is set to reinstate mandatory lockdowns for cities as medical facilities across the country are strained due to a recent surge in new coronavirus infections, the New York Times reports.
Why it matters: Roughly four months ago, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a national lockdown to prevent the spread of the virus, hoping to avoid the large-scale crisis it's now experiencing.
By the numbers: New COVID-19 cases have rapidly increased since the federal government and regional governments began easing restrictions in May.
India’s total case count rose to the third highest in the world this week, with more than 820,000 confirmed infections and 22,123 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
With 1.3 billion people, India is the second-most populated country in the world.
Details: City officials in the town of Pune plan to shut down next week after several days of high new case numbers, according to NYT.
Officials in Aurangabad extended their curfew, while the state of Uttar Pradesh, the country's most populous, ordered almost all businesses to close for the weekend.
The city of Bengaluru is set to implement a complete lockdown from July 14-23, according to the Times of India.
Source
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If one doctor says X, and pretty much all other doctors say Y, I don't think I'll believe X.
For starters, I can tell you that there hasn't been a flu season that overwhelmed hospitals' capacity as corona did in Spain, Italy and New York in a very long time (perhaps all the way back to 1917). So just from that, his whole "it's just a bad flu" spiel seems suspect.
I also don't think his numbers are right and he's comparing different types of death rate statistics. Even if he's a good doctor (no clue...) does not make him a good statistician.
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It's kinda your responsibility to lay out the main points here and what you think is worth sharing about this link instead of just pasting it in the thread.
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Can anybody explain what is disney world like that makes it so dangerous for spread of covid? From the pictures I see people outside, mostly wearing masks and keeping some distance. As far as I understand the risk of infection is quite low outside, provided there's no touching, no hugs and some distance. And I think pretty much everywhere in Europe there's less than 0.1% of people wearing masks when being outside. So, the question is - does disney world have places that are inside only (restaurants, cinemas)? Or was the journalist scared to get infected by staying outside?
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On July 12 2020 18:01 arbiter_md wrote:
Can anybody explain what is disney world like that makes it so dangerous for spread of covid? From the pictures I see people outside, mostly wearing masks and keeping some distance. As far as I understand the risk of infection is quite low outside, provided there's no touching, no hugs and some distance. And I think pretty much everywhere in Europe there's less than 0.1% of people wearing masks when being outside. So, the question is - does disney world have places that are inside only (restaurants, cinemas)? Or was the journalist scared to get infected by staying outside?
It is mainly an outdoor experience, but there are still many indoor gift shops, restaurants, movies, and rides. I’d suspect that most of the fear comes from just recollecting what an average ride line was like (Lots of people in a relatively tight line for 30+ minutes at a time), and assuming it will be roughly the same....or good god, the end of night fire works display with thousands of people cramming into a large open area to the point where it is basically shoulder to shoulder everywhere in viewing distance.
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EPT
