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On July 11 2020 18:27 Nouar wrote:
Will you be again moving goalposts as you have done in the USPol or here by now saying that "flattening the curve" was the only point of lockdown?
What is the next goal ?
While it is not entirely wrong, once the curve is flattened, the aim should not be just let it roam free again. The US never even flattened their curve.
The drop in places like NY/NJ from their lockdown hid the rise in other states.
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Yeah, we’re still dealing with the first wave as Larry Brilliant stated in his interview with Wired. What happened was that the curve was starting to flatten because New York got their situation under control through a complete shutdown, mandatory mask wearing and a state-wide buy in to social distance and public shame anyone who didn’t comply.
Instead of actually flattening the curve completely like many other Western countries at this point who are in the process of restarting their economies, many states immediately rushed to relax and reopen the minute the curve started to look positive giving a false sense of security to many people. California, Arizona, Florida and Texas are all states that did this in some capacity and have just caused the first wave to get increasingly out of control.
Previously I posted some counties in Arizona are contracting refrigerated trucks to deal with the increased death toll, Texas Tribune is reporting the same situation happening in Texas. Even if the reported coronavirus deaths are low (relatively speaking), I do not think counties are not doing this if they believe the situation is controllable in the foreseeable future based on the number of deaths they’re seeing right now.
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On July 11 2020 14:26 KwarK wrote:
The idea that China misled the rest of the world regarding the severity of COVID while simultaneously publicly quarantining millions of people is absurd. China took swift public action that implied that there was a serious contagion.
The China narrative exists only to deflect blame from the failure of a minority of western politicians to deal with the crisis.
It's exactly what they did for a bit. Downplaying the virus internationally while going hardcore on it nationally. However it is much too late to blame China for today's situation. The current situation in the US is due to leadership failure, at a state and federal level.
On July 11 2020 03:09 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2020 13:51 Erasme wrote:
Btw, at 60k new cases a day, with a mortality rate of around 3.7%, thats 2.2k dead per day. I hope you and your covid deniers friends enjoy that. A little thread PSA: Calling people covid deniers, and alleging they enjoy more deaths should be below TeamLiquid. The division starts here, in this forum, in full view of every internet denizen that lives here. I don't know what black part of this person's personality this is sourced from, or if it comes from some close personal tragedy, but don't write like this. If people aren't denying the pandemic, don't call them covid deniers. If you have any humanity or common decency about your character, don't accuse others of enjoying the prospect of more dead. The pandemic affects everyone, and thoughts like this just remind me that people can also choose to be divisive and use tragedies as a sort of weapon to go make ad hominems on other people. I like the impulse summed up in "We are all in this Together," but posts like this mean it actually isn't fully true.
Oh, i am quite done trying to argue with you. These past few months you downplayed the severity of this virus, pushed to reopen. Your stance will kill more americans, so I'd like to make sure you understand what your position will bring.
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On July 11 2020 18:27 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2020 08:16 Lmui wrote:
Well, USA has done it.
1% of their population has officially been infected by coronavirus.
It's a record high day too, 65.6k and there's no sign of slowing it down anywhere.
14 states have over 1000 cases a day, which is up from IIRC 11 2 days ago.
There's going to be no brakes on the train until a vaccine is available, and even then, anti-vax people might slow down the deployment which would be brutal. And deaths are sadly but expectedly creeping up again. I'm sorry Danglars but you spent the last 2 weeks saying that we should not look at the amount of cases, but the amount of deaths and hospital capacity (which I more or less agree with, but it was clear the increase in positive cases was not only due to increased testing). Well now it is going up again, as "scheduled", around 3 weeks after the increase in cases started again. From an average of 5/600deaths/day in the past 3 or 4 weeks, this week was a steady 900+, each day of the week. Will you be again moving goalposts as you have done in the USPol or here by now saying that "flattening the curve" was the only point of lockdown? What is the next goal ? While it is not entirely wrong, once the curve is flattened, the aim should not be just let it roam free again. Last month you were arguing that the death/million in the US that was at that point a lot lower than the EU and framing that as a "see, we're fine". Unsurprisingly since the rate of deaths in the US is still at a very high point, it has crept up and is now nearing France's. Still a ways off from Italy or Spain though. The point of lockdown was to stop the increase, bring the situation back to manageable levels, and hopefully be able to track cases and spreading again, to be able to confidently reopen the country and live something akin to a normal life (we managed it in Europe mostly, the US could have done it with more leadership towards the "problematic" part of the country, which happens to have its leader in power. If he had instructed people to take it seriously, a good deal of them would have...). If you only flatten it, hospitals can cope for a few monthes more, but then you need to keep it flat. That is NOT happening. Overruning your hospitals with a 3-month delay is... not a goal. That means your economy is impeded even more seriously for a longer period of time. A serious, all-country, 2 months lockdown would have saved dozens of thousands of lives, really lowered to trackable levels the virus, and allowed a gradual, confident reopening with a better economic result. I really hope that you can come to agree on that point. The main reason this did not happen is one person. ---------------------------------------------------------- In other news, France is still looking good but there are some worrying metrics. The amount of calls to SOS Medecins on Covid suspicions have crept back up again from 150/day to around 300/day. This does not reflect (yet?) as people in hospitals and in ICU are still lowering every day (-115 to ~7k and -16 to ~500 respectively). However this is worrying. Testing is still done at very low level, which I am angry about. It seems we still have a shortage... My town and neighbors had prepared a large-scale testing, the state said "OK, prepare", and when everything was ready, they were told that there was no way they could be provided with several thousands tests. In Guyana, the colleague (next office) of my brother in law is ill with covid symptoms, has been sent home (no test...???!!), and the rest of the team still has to work (no tests either). That's... We definitely have a big issue on testing. They are, as they were 3 months ago, still only testing people in discovered clusters, and not isolated cases. Because they are probably not idiots, that mean they don't really have a choice, thus that we still can't get our hands on tests. This is on the government. On the good side, there's been an increase in cases in Mayenne, so the govt wants to test the whole département in a month or so. It's a good idea, but seeing what I just said about testing, I highly doubt they can achieve it. On another good side, our testing positive % is still very good at 1.22%. The R0 though, has been slowly creeping up and is now >1. You can view the metrics here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA
Lol at the pre-accusation of goalpost shifting. Never change!
The hospitalization growth and death growth show a handful of states need to shut down again to limit the spreading rate. Your “the point of lockdown was to stop the increase” is close. It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown.
The covid problem is that it denies easy explanations, like states that opened too early are the problem right now:
(Thread)
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On July 11 2020 23:45 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2020 23:40 Danglars wrote:On July 11 2020 18:27 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 08:16 Lmui wrote:
Well, USA has done it.
1% of their population has officially been infected by coronavirus.
It's a record high day too, 65.6k and there's no sign of slowing it down anywhere.
14 states have over 1000 cases a day, which is up from IIRC 11 2 days ago.
There's going to be no brakes on the train until a vaccine is available, and even then, anti-vax people might slow down the deployment which would be brutal. And deaths are sadly but expectedly creeping up again. I'm sorry Danglars but you spent the last 2 weeks saying that we should not look at the amount of cases, but the amount of deaths and hospital capacity (which I more or less agree with, but it was clear the increase in positive cases was not only due to increased testing). Well now it is going up again, as "scheduled", around 3 weeks after the increase in cases started again. From an average of 5/600deaths/day in the past 3 or 4 weeks, this week was a steady 900+, each day of the week. Will you be again moving goalposts as you have done in the USPol or here by now saying that "flattening the curve" was the only point of lockdown? What is the next goal ? While it is not entirely wrong, once the curve is flattened, the aim should not be just let it roam free again. Last month you were arguing that the death/million in the US that was at that point a lot lower than the EU and framing that as a "see, we're fine". Unsurprisingly since the rate of deaths in the US is still at a very high point, it has crept up and is now nearing France's. Still a ways off from Italy or Spain though. The point of lockdown was to stop the increase, bring the situation back to manageable levels, and hopefully be able to track cases and spreading again, to be able to confidently reopen the country and live something akin to a normal life (we managed it in Europe mostly, the US could have done it with more leadership towards the "problematic" part of the country, which happens to have its leader in power. If he had instructed people to take it seriously, a good deal of them would have...). If you only flatten it, hospitals can cope for a few monthes more, but then you need to keep it flat. That is NOT happening. Overruning your hospitals with a 3-month delay is... not a goal. That means your economy is impeded even more seriously for a longer period of time. A serious, all-country, 2 months lockdown would have saved dozens of thousands of lives, really lowered to trackable levels the virus, and allowed a gradual, confident reopening with a better economic result. I really hope that you can come to agree on that point. The main reason this did not happen is one person. ---------------------------------------------------------- In other news, France is still looking good but there are some worrying metrics. The amount of calls to SOS Medecins on Covid suspicions have crept back up again from 150/day to around 300/day. This does not reflect (yet?) as people in hospitals and in ICU are still lowering every day (-115 to ~7k and -16 to ~500 respectively). However this is worrying. Testing is still done at very low level, which I am angry about. It seems we still have a shortage... My town and neighbors had prepared a large-scale testing, the state said "OK, prepare", and when everything was ready, they were told that there was no way they could be provided with several thousands tests. In Guyana, the colleague (next office) of my brother in law is ill with covid symptoms, has been sent home (no test...???!!), and the rest of the team still has to work (no tests either). That's... We definitely have a big issue on testing. They are, as they were 3 months ago, still only testing people in discovered clusters, and not isolated cases. Because they are probably not idiots, that mean they don't really have a choice, thus that we still can't get our hands on tests. This is on the government. On the good side, there's been an increase in cases in Mayenne, so the govt wants to test the whole département in a month or so. It's a good idea, but seeing what I just said about testing, I highly doubt they can achieve it. On another good side, our testing positive % is still very good at 1.22%. The R0 though, has been slowly creeping up and is now >1. You can view the metrics here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA Lol at the pre-accusation of goalpost shifting. Never change! The hospitalization growth and death growth show a handful of states need to shut down again to limit the spreading rate. Your “the point of lockdown was to stop the increase” is close. It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown. The covid problem is that it denies easy explanations, like states that opened too early are the problem right now: https://twitter.com/kevinwglass/status/1280232181017739264(Thread) We have close to stopped it or at least moved the R down to less than 1 and have reopned a lot with only minor growth. NZ completely stopped it. So it is possible. It is not only about keeping hospitals below 100%. The longer we can delay people getting it the better our care is as we learn more. This is why mortality rates have dropped and they will continue too. There is no world where Texas, Florida, Az and so on have done the right things, they are doing an objectively horrible job.
I notice Colorado absent and California absent. Looks like post-hoc rationalization “they did something wrong because it’s currently bad” rather than “these states did X wrong, which led to Y state of bad.”
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On July 11 2020 23:40 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2020 18:27 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 08:16 Lmui wrote:
Well, USA has done it.
1% of their population has officially been infected by coronavirus.
It's a record high day too, 65.6k and there's no sign of slowing it down anywhere.
14 states have over 1000 cases a day, which is up from IIRC 11 2 days ago.
There's going to be no brakes on the train until a vaccine is available, and even then, anti-vax people might slow down the deployment which would be brutal. And deaths are sadly but expectedly creeping up again. I'm sorry Danglars but you spent the last 2 weeks saying that we should not look at the amount of cases, but the amount of deaths and hospital capacity (which I more or less agree with, but it was clear the increase in positive cases was not only due to increased testing). Well now it is going up again, as "scheduled", around 3 weeks after the increase in cases started again. From an average of 5/600deaths/day in the past 3 or 4 weeks, this week was a steady 900+, each day of the week. Will you be again moving goalposts as you have done in the USPol or here by now saying that "flattening the curve" was the only point of lockdown? What is the next goal ? While it is not entirely wrong, once the curve is flattened, the aim should not be just let it roam free again. Last month you were arguing that the death/million in the US that was at that point a lot lower than the EU and framing that as a "see, we're fine". Unsurprisingly since the rate of deaths in the US is still at a very high point, it has crept up and is now nearing France's. Still a ways off from Italy or Spain though. The point of lockdown was to stop the increase, bring the situation back to manageable levels, and hopefully be able to track cases and spreading again, to be able to confidently reopen the country and live something akin to a normal life (we managed it in Europe mostly, the US could have done it with more leadership towards the "problematic" part of the country, which happens to have its leader in power. If he had instructed people to take it seriously, a good deal of them would have...). If you only flatten it, hospitals can cope for a few monthes more, but then you need to keep it flat. That is NOT happening. Overruning your hospitals with a 3-month delay is... not a goal. That means your economy is impeded even more seriously for a longer period of time. A serious, all-country, 2 months lockdown would have saved dozens of thousands of lives, really lowered to trackable levels the virus, and allowed a gradual, confident reopening with a better economic result. I really hope that you can come to agree on that point. The main reason this did not happen is one person. ---------------------------------------------------------- In other news, France is still looking good but there are some worrying metrics. The amount of calls to SOS Medecins on Covid suspicions have crept back up again from 150/day to around 300/day. This does not reflect (yet?) as people in hospitals and in ICU are still lowering every day (-115 to ~7k and -16 to ~500 respectively). However this is worrying. Testing is still done at very low level, which I am angry about. It seems we still have a shortage... My town and neighbors had prepared a large-scale testing, the state said "OK, prepare", and when everything was ready, they were told that there was no way they could be provided with several thousands tests. In Guyana, the colleague (next office) of my brother in law is ill with covid symptoms, has been sent home (no test...???!!), and the rest of the team still has to work (no tests either). That's... We definitely have a big issue on testing. They are, as they were 3 months ago, still only testing people in discovered clusters, and not isolated cases. Because they are probably not idiots, that mean they don't really have a choice, thus that we still can't get our hands on tests. This is on the government. On the good side, there's been an increase in cases in Mayenne, so the govt wants to test the whole département in a month or so. It's a good idea, but seeing what I just said about testing, I highly doubt they can achieve it. On another good side, our testing positive % is still very good at 1.22%. The R0 though, has been slowly creeping up and is now >1. You can view the metrics here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA Lol at the pre-accusation of goalpost shifting. Never change! The hospitalization growth and death growth show a handful of states need to shut down again to limit the spreading rate. Your “the point of lockdown was to stop the increase” is close. It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown. The covid problem is that it denies easy explanations, like states that opened too early are the problem right now: (Thread) I mean this is going to come as a complete shock to you but maybe, just maybe "opening to early" is in relation to the virus spread in that area, and not purely dictated by what calendar day they opened at...
ps.
Using Colorado as a counter point when they just had their 3e highest new cases reported is probably no good.
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On July 11 2020 23:40 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2020 18:27 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 08:16 Lmui wrote:
Well, USA has done it.
1% of their population has officially been infected by coronavirus.
It's a record high day too, 65.6k and there's no sign of slowing it down anywhere.
14 states have over 1000 cases a day, which is up from IIRC 11 2 days ago.
There's going to be no brakes on the train until a vaccine is available, and even then, anti-vax people might slow down the deployment which would be brutal. And deaths are sadly but expectedly creeping up again. I'm sorry Danglars but you spent the last 2 weeks saying that we should not look at the amount of cases, but the amount of deaths and hospital capacity (which I more or less agree with, but it was clear the increase in positive cases was not only due to increased testing). Well now it is going up again, as "scheduled", around 3 weeks after the increase in cases started again. From an average of 5/600deaths/day in the past 3 or 4 weeks, this week was a steady 900+, each day of the week. Will you be again moving goalposts as you have done in the USPol or here by now saying that "flattening the curve" was the only point of lockdown? What is the next goal ? While it is not entirely wrong, once the curve is flattened, the aim should not be just let it roam free again. Last month you were arguing that the death/million in the US that was at that point a lot lower than the EU and framing that as a "see, we're fine". Unsurprisingly since the rate of deaths in the US is still at a very high point, it has crept up and is now nearing France's. Still a ways off from Italy or Spain though. The point of lockdown was to stop the increase, bring the situation back to manageable levels, and hopefully be able to track cases and spreading again, to be able to confidently reopen the country and live something akin to a normal life (we managed it in Europe mostly, the US could have done it with more leadership towards the "problematic" part of the country, which happens to have its leader in power. If he had instructed people to take it seriously, a good deal of them would have...). If you only flatten it, hospitals can cope for a few monthes more, but then you need to keep it flat. That is NOT happening. Overruning your hospitals with a 3-month delay is... not a goal. That means your economy is impeded even more seriously for a longer period of time. A serious, all-country, 2 months lockdown would have saved dozens of thousands of lives, really lowered to trackable levels the virus, and allowed a gradual, confident reopening with a better economic result. I really hope that you can come to agree on that point. The main reason this did not happen is one person. ---------------------------------------------------------- In other news, France is still looking good but there are some worrying metrics. The amount of calls to SOS Medecins on Covid suspicions have crept back up again from 150/day to around 300/day. This does not reflect (yet?) as people in hospitals and in ICU are still lowering every day (-115 to ~7k and -16 to ~500 respectively). However this is worrying. Testing is still done at very low level, which I am angry about. It seems we still have a shortage... My town and neighbors had prepared a large-scale testing, the state said "OK, prepare", and when everything was ready, they were told that there was no way they could be provided with several thousands tests. In Guyana, the colleague (next office) of my brother in law is ill with covid symptoms, has been sent home (no test...???!!), and the rest of the team still has to work (no tests either). That's... We definitely have a big issue on testing. They are, as they were 3 months ago, still only testing people in discovered clusters, and not isolated cases. Because they are probably not idiots, that mean they don't really have a choice, thus that we still can't get our hands on tests. This is on the government. On the good side, there's been an increase in cases in Mayenne, so the govt wants to test the whole département in a month or so. It's a good idea, but seeing what I just said about testing, I highly doubt they can achieve it. On another good side, our testing positive % is still very good at 1.22%. The R0 though, has been slowly creeping up and is now >1. You can view the metrics here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA Lol at the pre-accusation of goalpost shifting. Never change! The hospitalization growth and death growth show a handful of states need to shut down again to limit the spreading rate. Your “the point of lockdown was to stop the increase” is close. It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown. The covid problem is that it denies easy explanations, like states that opened too early are the problem right now: https://twitter.com/kevinwglass/status/1280232181017739264(Thread)
It's not a pre-accusation, you've done that twice already... Seeing the deaths go up again, I can only be happy that you say some states should re-shutdown, so it seems you are not changing it again. However, with the right mindset from the beginning, or at least when it was obvious, you could have learned from the EU and do only one, serious, country-wide shutdown. It's less damage on the economy. (not talking about the future, who knows how it will evolve in 4-6 months).
And good luck getting your population to shutdown every 2 months. This is the kind of thing that works once, maybe twice if you're lucky. Here would be the same, the second time around, confidence in politicians would be down in the gutter and you would have to harshly enforce it instead of relying on the good will of the people.
What do you mean it's "far too transmissible to have hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown". Does Europe exist to you ? What do you think we've been doing these past four months ???
Take any large european country numbers currently, adapt to the population of the US and you get around 2.5k cases a day and maybe 100 deaths. That's in countries where hospitals were overloaded and people dying untreated. It IS possible, when you do it seriously enough.
If it was not feasable in the US that's solely because the leadership has been lacking. If Trump had properly explained to his fans that they could do something "to keep america great, think about your elders, protect yourself by covering your face" or whatever he could cook up, a good deal of people would have just listened to their leader. Instead, he went ape shit and still hasn't worn a mask publicly ONCE (I believe that was planned for today ?). Thus the governors took no decisive action because going against Trump is very bad for your political life in the republican party of today. That crisis is on him.
To have a shutdown work countrywide in the US, you need cooperation from all levels of state and federal executive and across the aisle. Otherwise states will play it solo, as they have done. Without leadership and a vision to give the people one target, everyone at any level does its own thing.
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Colorado was one of the states that locked down early and aggressively after being one of the first to be hit hard. That seems to have worked, but the post-lockdown reopening has apparently been a little too lax. It's not really a surprise that it's trending back into the danger zone.
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In my area of Virginia I drove by a restaurant packed to the gills with people in close proximity not wearing masks.
Dumb fucks.
Seems like Take This Seriously time is gone for good tbh.
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On July 12 2020 00:35 Zambrah wrote:
In my area of Virginia I drove by a restaurant packed to the gills with people in close proximity not wearing masks.
Dumb fucks.
Seems like Take This Seriously time is gone for good tbh.
It's gone until social media blows up with images and videos of people gasping for air to death in the hallways of hospitals, which is basically a matter of days, maybe a week or two.
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On July 12 2020 00:24 Nouar wrote:
Take any large european country numbers currently, adapt to the population of the US and you get around 2.5k cases a day and maybe 100 deaths. That's in countries where hospitals were overloaded and people dying untreated. It IS possible, when you do it seriously enough.
Having noticed this pattern play out over the last few months, I've started to wonder if "flatten the curve" was the wrong analogy all along. Seems more like a "lock down early and aggressively to stop the disease from reaching critical mass." The US curve is as flat as can be and if only by virtue of the sheer case load, it's a self-sustaining disease. A lot of countries with more aggressive responses didn't flatten the curve so much as contain it to a very small fraction of the population. The Swedens of the world that took a strategy more consistent with flattening than with lockdown are in a much more troubled position.
I guess it's worth noting that most major European countries still have a per-capita death rate significantly worse than the US. Not as bad as similar-demographics regions like New York or the US north-east in general, but nevertheless. Even that won't last, though, as with the current spike the death rate is going right back up in the US.
Seems like "flatten the curve" would've worked better if the disease spread faster and killed fewer of them. If the analysis of "20% of the population infected with a 1.4% death rate" that Worldometers did earlier is anything near accurate for the numbers inside a highly affected area, there's a lot of human firewood left for the disease to burn through even in crisis zones. And no matter how "flat" the burning is, it's a hell of a lot less effective than stopping the disease in its tracks.
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That is because things evolved over time. We didn't know a lot about the disease in the beginning, and it was growing exponentially, so we assumed that we couldn't keep it under control.
Thus flatten the curve was born, under the assumption that it would inevitably infect most of the population.
Nowadays, we know more. We know that you can get the thing under control, and that 70% of the population will not inevitably get infected, that that is preventable. Thus we no longer just try to flatten the curve, we try to keep the number of infected as low as possible, possibly getting rid of the disease completely, by first stomping it down to get out of the exponential, and then trying to open as wide as possible while still keeping R below 1.
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Yep, one of the few significant things we've learned over the past few months is that the adhoc flatten the curve solutions (which have roots back at least to 1918, to be fair) are far more effective than first guessed. Which of course makes the collective unwillingness to rely more heavily on those solutions all the more galling.
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On July 12 2020 00:48 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2020 00:24 Nouar wrote:
Take any large european country numbers currently, adapt to the population of the US and you get around 2.5k cases a day and maybe 100 deaths. That's in countries where hospitals were overloaded and people dying untreated. It IS possible, when you do it seriously enough. Having noticed this pattern play out over the last few months, I've started to wonder if "flatten the curve" was the wrong analogy all along. Seems more like a "lock down early and aggressively to stop the disease from reaching critical mass." The US curve is as flat as can be and if only by virtue of the sheer case load, it's a self-sustaining disease. A lot of countries with more aggressive responses didn't flatten the curve so much as contain it to a very small fraction of the population. The Swedens of the world that took a strategy more consistent with flattening than with lockdown are in a much more troubled position. I guess it's worth noting that most major European countries still have a per-capita death rate significantly worse than the US. Not as bad as similar-demographics regions like New York or the US north-east in general, but nevertheless. Even that won't last, though, as with the current spike the death rate is going right back up in the US. Seems like "flatten the curve" would've worked better if the disease spread faster and killed fewer of them. If the analysis of "20% of the population infected with a 1.4% death rate" that Worldometers did earlier is anything near accurate for the numbers inside a highly affected area, there's a lot of human firewood left for the disease to burn through even in crisis zones. And no matter how "flat" the burning is, it's a hell of a lot less effective than stopping the disease in its tracks. The US curve currently isn't flat at all, and yes it was flat through may and early june but that was, as was mentioned at the time I believe, a false flat.
While NY/NJ/ect that had been hotbeds trended down other parts of the US started to trend up, which combined worked out to appear to be a flattened curve, so long as you didn't look at individual states.
California has been trending up since March
Florida/Texas/Arizona have been trending up since late May/early June.
Georgia since June.
ect.
And yes the fear was that it was contagious enough and hard enough to stop that what your seeing currently in the EU, very suppressed and barely spreading, was not necessarily thought possible.
As it turns out now, that if you suppress the numbers enough with a lock-down you can then maintain control through 'simple' means such as social distancing and masks.
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On July 12 2020 00:24 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2020 23:40 Danglars wrote:On July 11 2020 18:27 Nouar wrote:On July 11 2020 08:16 Lmui wrote:
Well, USA has done it.
1% of their population has officially been infected by coronavirus.
It's a record high day too, 65.6k and there's no sign of slowing it down anywhere.
14 states have over 1000 cases a day, which is up from IIRC 11 2 days ago.
There's going to be no brakes on the train until a vaccine is available, and even then, anti-vax people might slow down the deployment which would be brutal. And deaths are sadly but expectedly creeping up again. I'm sorry Danglars but you spent the last 2 weeks saying that we should not look at the amount of cases, but the amount of deaths and hospital capacity (which I more or less agree with, but it was clear the increase in positive cases was not only due to increased testing). Well now it is going up again, as "scheduled", around 3 weeks after the increase in cases started again. From an average of 5/600deaths/day in the past 3 or 4 weeks, this week was a steady 900+, each day of the week. Will you be again moving goalposts as you have done in the USPol or here by now saying that "flattening the curve" was the only point of lockdown? What is the next goal ? While it is not entirely wrong, once the curve is flattened, the aim should not be just let it roam free again. Last month you were arguing that the death/million in the US that was at that point a lot lower than the EU and framing that as a "see, we're fine". Unsurprisingly since the rate of deaths in the US is still at a very high point, it has crept up and is now nearing France's. Still a ways off from Italy or Spain though. The point of lockdown was to stop the increase, bring the situation back to manageable levels, and hopefully be able to track cases and spreading again, to be able to confidently reopen the country and live something akin to a normal life (we managed it in Europe mostly, the US could have done it with more leadership towards the "problematic" part of the country, which happens to have its leader in power. If he had instructed people to take it seriously, a good deal of them would have...). If you only flatten it, hospitals can cope for a few monthes more, but then you need to keep it flat. That is NOT happening. Overruning your hospitals with a 3-month delay is... not a goal. That means your economy is impeded even more seriously for a longer period of time. A serious, all-country, 2 months lockdown would have saved dozens of thousands of lives, really lowered to trackable levels the virus, and allowed a gradual, confident reopening with a better economic result. I really hope that you can come to agree on that point. The main reason this did not happen is one person. ---------------------------------------------------------- In other news, France is still looking good but there are some worrying metrics. The amount of calls to SOS Medecins on Covid suspicions have crept back up again from 150/day to around 300/day. This does not reflect (yet?) as people in hospitals and in ICU are still lowering every day (-115 to ~7k and -16 to ~500 respectively). However this is worrying. Testing is still done at very low level, which I am angry about. It seems we still have a shortage... My town and neighbors had prepared a large-scale testing, the state said "OK, prepare", and when everything was ready, they were told that there was no way they could be provided with several thousands tests. In Guyana, the colleague (next office) of my brother in law is ill with covid symptoms, has been sent home (no test...???!!), and the rest of the team still has to work (no tests either). That's... We definitely have a big issue on testing. They are, as they were 3 months ago, still only testing people in discovered clusters, and not isolated cases. Because they are probably not idiots, that mean they don't really have a choice, thus that we still can't get our hands on tests. This is on the government. On the good side, there's been an increase in cases in Mayenne, so the govt wants to test the whole département in a month or so. It's a good idea, but seeing what I just said about testing, I highly doubt they can achieve it. On another good side, our testing positive % is still very good at 1.22%. The R0 though, has been slowly creeping up and is now >1. You can view the metrics here : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/suivi-indicateurs?location=FRA Lol at the pre-accusation of goalpost shifting. Never change! The hospitalization growth and death growth show a handful of states need to shut down again to limit the spreading rate. Your “the point of lockdown was to stop the increase” is close. It was to bring the rate of increase down. The virus is far too transmissible to have any hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown. The covid problem is that it denies easy explanations, like states that opened too early are the problem right now: https://twitter.com/kevinwglass/status/1280232181017739264(Thread) It's not a pre-accusation, you've done that twice already... Seeing the deaths go up again, I can only be happy that you say some states should re-shutdown, so it seems you are not changing it again. However, with the right mindset from the beginning, or at least when it was obvious, you could have learned from the EU and do only one, serious, country-wide shutdown. It's less damage on the economy. (not talking about the future, who knows how it will evolve in 4-6 months). And good luck getting your population to shutdown every 2 months. This is the kind of thing that works once, maybe twice if you're lucky. Here would be the same, the second time around, confidence in politicians would be down in the gutter and you would have to harshly enforce it instead of relying on the good will of the people. What do you mean it's "far too transmissible to have hopes of an actual stop in the increase through lockdown". Does Europe exist to you ? What do you think we've been doing these past four months ??? Take any large european country numbers currently, adapt to the population of the US and you get around 2.5k cases a day and maybe 100 deaths. That's in countries where hospitals were overloaded and people dying untreated. It IS possible, when you do it seriously enough.
Maybe you meant Europe has brought down the increase in the increase (as I say in my post, the rate of increase)? That's really the only way I can sensibly interpret this.
Some of the Europeans in this thread have to tell me about the testing rates. Every source I see has absurd numbers or no numbers available. So it leads to a big question mark in comparisons, but maybe there's better sources I haven't found. Eg
(Which is to say, what are the error bounds on statistics like
The US 14-day death rate is lower than Sweden's and on par with the UK even though our case rate is twice Sweden's and several times higher than the UK.
1 in 8 identified COVID cases in Europe has resulted in death while in the US, that number is 1 in 24
I'd do the throat-clearing on nationwide mandatory shutdown vs state-by-state consideration, but I think I've already written on it recently enough, and it veers into political should/ought.
If it was not feasable in the US that's solely because the leadership has been lacking. If Trump had properly explained to his fans that they could do something "to keep america great, think about your elders, protect yourself by covering your face" or whatever he could cook up, a good deal of people would have just listened to their leader. Instead, he went ape shit and still hasn't worn a mask publicly ONCE (I believe that was planned for today ?). Thus the governors took no decisive action because going against Trump is very bad for your political life in the republican party of today. That crisis is on him.
To have a shutdown work countrywide in the US, you need cooperation from all levels of state and federal executive and across the aisle. Otherwise states will play it solo, as they have done. Without leadership and a vision to give the people one target, everyone at any level does its own thing.
Political job performance is a political question, and I've already run afoul of that in this thread.
I'm watching places like Colorado, because maybe they'll go the way of TX and AZ with huge rises. It's too early to tell. Colorado was another early-reopening state, but has either missed what is happening in TX AZ, or it was just delayed.
California went back up with lockdown orders. No singing/chanting in church, more mandatory mask orders, other industry-specific tightening. My personal observation is that indoor mask use is incredibly high in public, and outdoor mask use incredibly low. At my job, only two people out of the ~60 I met in a day were not wearing a mask.
The question on my mind is what metric, for the states that have re-entered a high degree of lockdown, should be used to begin phased reopening.
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I found this:
https://de.statista.com/infografik/21211/anzahl-der-durchgefuehrten-coronavirus-tests-je-1-mio-einwohner-in-laendern-weltweit/
regarding the number of tests per million (total until july 7th). Source is in German, but the graph should be readable. Apparently data is from John Hopkins University
Comparing total numbers, not per million, is obviously absurd since the US is larger than any single country in the EU. The per million number shows the US right in the middle.
Also, at least in Germany the current numbers don't seem to be limited by test availability, but by the amount of candidates for testing. We already test people with symptoms, and anyone who has been close to anyone with covid. Here in bavaria, anyone else who wants to get tested can just get tested, too. But since we don't have a lot of active cases, that is still far below our testing capacity.
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EPT
