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On July 09 2020 03:41 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2020 15:44 Danglars wrote:
I've seen ICU capacity flex to higher numbers in the worst places. Whatever floor capacity isn't designated COVID-ICU is rotated into that use, and other area hospitals help out. It's still possible that current strains do overwhelm capacity in the future, but there's not enough data to show that now. Hospitals are getting better at treating people. Arizona, as an example, has been patient transferring to smoothe loads, and bringing in out of state workers. Meanwhile Texas appears to have 56 hospitals at capacity and another 34 at 10% or less remaining. Healthcare in some parts of the US definitely appears to be reaching capacity, which is not going to be good for the fatality rate. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/506344-56-florida-icus-at-capacity-as-virus-surges
I’ll be watching Texas hospitalizations. Some hospitals are approaching it, which isn’t the same thing as saying the measures (like transfers, and surge capacity) are inefficient to address it. Planning for these situations have gone on since UK modeling projected 2.2 million deaths in America.
Not to say this isn’t a stress on logistics and nurses and doctors forced to work longer hours, as well as all the out of state nurses being brought in in some states.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/america-is-testing-for-covid-19-more-than-ever-and-it-still-isnt-enough/
This is an article on test rates in the USA, and how far from optimal they are. The USA is testing at a rate that's insufficient to catch/control the spread, despite having one of the highest test/capita in the world, and in the 5 most heavily affected states, the testing is ~15-30% of what it needs to be in order to contain the spread.
There are some experts who argue we don’t need to dramatically increase testing further, such as Hochman, who has written on the topic. Hochman argues the current level of testing should be sufficient to inform public health responses. But the problem is we’re not executing those responses well, either.
“Masks, social distancing and hygiene are the three things that make the biggest difference, and testing is probably four or five on that list,” Hochman said.
On the other hand though, this quote summarizes the situation pretty well. Public policy needs to pivot towards masks and social distancing, to get the spread under control, so that the isolate, trace, test procedures can catch up.
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On July 08 2020 01:44 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2020 16:44 Lmui wrote:
The next major milestone for the US is 1% of total population officially infected by covid. This milestone should happen in the next week.
It's staggering how badly handled it is on the whole. They were the last major country to get hit, and are handling it about as badly as possible.
The canadian border is a bit leaky unfortunately with people who are "going to alaska". I live in a not touristy location, but Whistler, banff and other major destinations might get hammered by Americans. Last major country to get hit? Does South America not have any major countries, somehow? We should be seeing the start of increases in deaths, since states like Arizona had a surge starting in late May. That hasn't happened yet. Despite all the people telling me (at the time) just wait two weeks. Georgia weekly cases up 200% compared to last month, weekly deaths down 60%. Handling it better is part of the reason, along with younger people getting tested and testing positive, and availability of PPE and testing in general. The country has been reopening, as it should, and the only things that will show we're "handling it about as badly as possible" is if hospitalizations exceed capacity, or deaths start mimicking the earlier peaks. (In fact, it's hard to find places that are handling the recent surge badly ... like they had plans and implemented them)
There's always a lag between the deaths and the number of cases going up. As we see more and more hospitals at full capacity, the deaths ratio will increase. Also interesting to note that some states are behind the curve and applying masks and social distancing, while others are only starting to climb it.
Btw, at 60k new cases a day, with a mortality rate of around 3.7%, thats 2.2k dead per day. I hope you and your covid deniers friends enjoy that.
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I dont want to support any kind of covid denying but that death rate looks absurdly high. Most estimates I have seen are between .2 and .8%, which is bad enough.
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On July 09 2020 16:16 Elroi wrote:
I dont want to support any kind of covid denying but that death rare looks absurdly high. Most estimates I have seen are between .2 and .8%, which is bad enough.
Probably referring ro the difference between CFR and IFR.
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On July 09 2020 13:51 Erasme wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2020 01:44 Danglars wrote:On July 07 2020 16:44 Lmui wrote:
The next major milestone for the US is 1% of total population officially infected by covid. This milestone should happen in the next week.
It's staggering how badly handled it is on the whole. They were the last major country to get hit, and are handling it about as badly as possible.
The canadian border is a bit leaky unfortunately with people who are "going to alaska". I live in a not touristy location, but Whistler, banff and other major destinations might get hammered by Americans. Last major country to get hit? Does South America not have any major countries, somehow? We should be seeing the start of increases in deaths, since states like Arizona had a surge starting in late May. That hasn't happened yet. Despite all the people telling me (at the time) just wait two weeks. Georgia weekly cases up 200% compared to last month, weekly deaths down 60%. Handling it better is part of the reason, along with younger people getting tested and testing positive, and availability of PPE and testing in general. The country has been reopening, as it should, and the only things that will show we're "handling it about as badly as possible" is if hospitalizations exceed capacity, or deaths start mimicking the earlier peaks. (In fact, it's hard to find places that are handling the recent surge badly ... like they had plans and implemented them) There's always a lag between the deaths and the number of cases going up. As we see more and more hospitals at full capacity, the deaths ratio will increase. Also interesting to note that some states are behind the curve and applying masks and social distancing, while others are only starting to climb it. Btw, at 60k new cases a day, with a mortality rate of around 3.7%, thats 2.2k dead per day. I hope you and your covid deniers friends enjoy that.
The lag point is interesting, because the spikes in cases happening at the end of May should have already been visible in increased deaths/excess deaths by now. The last week and a half to two weeks have shown the exact opposite: cases continued to increase, deaths continued to decrease.
Hospitalizations, with the ability to burden shift to other areas with thousands in excess capacity, is an evolving situation. The current rate of increase is not sustainable over more weeks, but we should know if that’s going to happen by the middle of next week.
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On July 09 2020 22:15 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2020 13:51 Erasme wrote:On July 08 2020 01:44 Danglars wrote:On July 07 2020 16:44 Lmui wrote:
The next major milestone for the US is 1% of total population officially infected by covid. This milestone should happen in the next week.
It's staggering how badly handled it is on the whole. They were the last major country to get hit, and are handling it about as badly as possible.
The canadian border is a bit leaky unfortunately with people who are "going to alaska". I live in a not touristy location, but Whistler, banff and other major destinations might get hammered by Americans. Last major country to get hit? Does South America not have any major countries, somehow? We should be seeing the start of increases in deaths, since states like Arizona had a surge starting in late May. That hasn't happened yet. Despite all the people telling me (at the time) just wait two weeks. Georgia weekly cases up 200% compared to last month, weekly deaths down 60%. Handling it better is part of the reason, along with younger people getting tested and testing positive, and availability of PPE and testing in general. The country has been reopening, as it should, and the only things that will show we're "handling it about as badly as possible" is if hospitalizations exceed capacity, or deaths start mimicking the earlier peaks. (In fact, it's hard to find places that are handling the recent surge badly ... like they had plans and implemented them) There's always a lag between the deaths and the number of cases going up. As we see more and more hospitals at full capacity, the deaths ratio will increase. Also interesting to note that some states are behind the curve and applying masks and social distancing, while others are only starting to climb it. Btw, at 60k new cases a day, with a mortality rate of around 3.7%, thats 2.2k dead per day. I hope you and your covid deniers friends enjoy that. The lag point is interesting, because the spikes in cases happening at the end of May should have already been visible in increased deaths/excess deaths by now. The last week and a half to two weeks have shown the exact opposite: cases continued to increase, deaths continued to decrease. Hospitalizations, with the ability to burden shift to other areas with thousands in excess capacity, is an evolving situation. The current rate of increase is not sustainable over more weeks, but we should know if that’s going to happen by the middle of next week. Remember when many people said China was lying because the numbers didn't add up?
Well the numbers are not adding up for the US.
I would love to see some stats on excess deaths for the US right now, sadly I assume those numbers will not be available for some time.
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On July 09 2020 20:13 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2020 16:16 Elroi wrote:
I dont want to support any kind of covid denying but that death rate looks absurdly high. Most estimates I have seen are between .2 and .8%, which is bad enough. I could be misinterpreting. But I think what you are talking about is the death rate with a hospital system with enough beds, staff and equipment, and he is talking about the rate when your system is over ran.
That's a good point.
On July 09 2020 22:34 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2020 22:15 Danglars wrote:On July 09 2020 13:51 Erasme wrote:On July 08 2020 01:44 Danglars wrote:On July 07 2020 16:44 Lmui wrote:
The next major milestone for the US is 1% of total population officially infected by covid. This milestone should happen in the next week.
It's staggering how badly handled it is on the whole. They were the last major country to get hit, and are handling it about as badly as possible.
The canadian border is a bit leaky unfortunately with people who are "going to alaska". I live in a not touristy location, but Whistler, banff and other major destinations might get hammered by Americans. Last major country to get hit? Does South America not have any major countries, somehow? We should be seeing the start of increases in deaths, since states like Arizona had a surge starting in late May. That hasn't happened yet. Despite all the people telling me (at the time) just wait two weeks. Georgia weekly cases up 200% compared to last month, weekly deaths down 60%. Handling it better is part of the reason, along with younger people getting tested and testing positive, and availability of PPE and testing in general. The country has been reopening, as it should, and the only things that will show we're "handling it about as badly as possible" is if hospitalizations exceed capacity, or deaths start mimicking the earlier peaks. (In fact, it's hard to find places that are handling the recent surge badly ... like they had plans and implemented them) There's always a lag between the deaths and the number of cases going up. As we see more and more hospitals at full capacity, the deaths ratio will increase. Also interesting to note that some states are behind the curve and applying masks and social distancing, while others are only starting to climb it. Btw, at 60k new cases a day, with a mortality rate of around 3.7%, thats 2.2k dead per day. I hope you and your covid deniers friends enjoy that. The lag point is interesting, because the spikes in cases happening at the end of May should have already been visible in increased deaths/excess deaths by now. The last week and a half to two weeks have shown the exact opposite: cases continued to increase, deaths continued to decrease. Hospitalizations, with the ability to burden shift to other areas with thousands in excess capacity, is an evolving situation. The current rate of increase is not sustainable over more weeks, but we should know if that’s going to happen by the middle of next week. Stories like this completely avoidable death by a Flordia teen who believed Covid was not that scary and went to a maskless Covid reopening party need not happen, and that is was makes them so sad. Her taking Trumps unproven cure also clearly didn't help. Misinformation is deadly when it comes to Covid. https://globalnews.ca/news/7147062/coronavirus-church-party-florida-teen-covid-19/
To be fair, she should probably have been isolated anyway right now and not attended any parties, maskless or otherwise, in any country that has community spread since she, according to the article, already suffered from
a lifetime of battling various medical challenges, including cancer and a rare autoimmune disorder that contributed to her death
I don't necessarily dispute your overall point. But that particular case, presented like that, is an example of the misinformation that you decry. So are all the more or less invented new and apparently super dangerous side effects of corona that papers like the Guardian invent every day and that are just as quickly forgotten. To me it seems that they are expressions of an unnecessary politicization of everything: "since Trump downplays the dangers of the disease, it's our duty to exaggerate them". The problem with that kind of logic is that it leads to a similarly strong counter-reaction from the opposite side. The same could be said about global warming (with the counting of an arbitrary number of months and years until "extinction") or any number of other important issues.
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US, Brazil, and India look like the trifecta of disaster right now. Lots of new infections and lots of new death in all three. And unlike with the first spike, it looks like the exact wrong strategy is being deployed to handle it.
July is on track to be a record-setter.
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On July 10 2020 08:38 LegalLord wrote:
US, Brazil, and India look like the trifecta of disaster right now. Lots of new infections and lots of new death in all three. And unlike with the first spike, it looks like the exact wrong strategy is being deployed to handle it.
July is on track to be a record-setter.
India I don't think they can do anything. Beyond enforcement of a masks at all times law they have neither the means nor the wealth to prevent disaster from occurring.
Brazil is still relatively poor, but the government is at least trying, even if Bolsanaro isn't.
US had the means, the wealth, and the data to see the train coming and still laid down on the tracks. Treatment is slightly better than before, testing is more widespread, but with the US having the worst death tallies in a month, and cases skyrocketing, I can't see anything but a nightmare coming in the next few weeks. There was a ~2 week delay between diagnosis and death on average, which could be longer now given both more testing and better treatment. This might be the first time you can see the delay between cases rising and deaths rising as it happens
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As bad as India and Brazil are (very bad indeed), the US is definitely special. I think the old saying, "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" is the most poignant way to describe how the crisis is being handled right now. There's enough money and industry to produce more tests and ventilators and ICU beds than anyone else in the world. But once people start being infected, people start dying, and medical care cannot prevent most of those deaths. What would've helped is earlier, more decisive action to lock it all down. The only decisive action taken was in regards to propping up stock prices, not the virus itself.
The US can now create millions of tests to find millions of infected people. In a world where this disease were handled better, there wouldn't be millions of infected in the first place.
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The other thing to keep in mind with death rates is how much the age demographics of the infected have shifted. This is something I heard about in February during a conference on COVID-19, just magnified; the ID specialist believed that if/when COVID-19 is "over" as a mainline pandemic, and only infecting children, there will be a lot of talking heads saying the virus lost its lethality when the reality of the situation will just be that those are the people least at risk.
When the average age of the infected in the US has dropped by 15 years you will obviously see lower death rates per infected person than earlier in the pandemic, and possibly even an overall drop in deaths depending on what's happening in the tails of the distribution.
This is putting aside that looking at national numbers in a setting of 50-100 outbreaks is pretty much as useless as you can get, and that no amount of ventilators and prepared rooms will generate trained staff to use them (normally you'd pull in people from outside the system...good luck with that). At the hospital system where my friend works as a nurse they're scrambling to train everyone in ICU staffing but scrambling means that education will not lead to ideal performance.
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The death rates are pretty bad as they are right now, even if less people die daily than at the first peak. Likely to get worse anyhow - when hospitals fill up, more people start dying that might have been saved otherwise. And even if the death among younger people is 1 in 1000 rather than 1 in 10, that's still hundreds of thousands of deaths. Treating this as a "disease that kills old people" seems more than a little reckless.
I think it very likely that the US will break the earlier peak of 2.8k deaths in a day before the end of this second wave. Every indication is that this is going to be worse than the first go-around.
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On July 10 2020 23:03 JimmiC wrote:For those that think that the death rate in the states is falling while the cases are up, that is not the case when you look state by state. NY has falling death rate same with NJ and because they got hit the worst it skews the rest of the numbers. In the south it is getting scary fast. Goto take the head out of the sand and do something about it. AZ Testing up 12% cases up 36% Current hospitalizations up 66% Daily Death rate up 79%. Fla Testing up 80% cases up 162% Current hospitalizations up NA% Daily Death rate up 37%. (scary to not see hospital) La Testing up 15% cases up 162% Current hospitalizations up 50% Daily Death rate up 7%. SC Testing up 56% cases up 65% Current hospitalizations up 76% Daily Death rate up 62%. Tex Testing up 41% cases up 86% Current hospitalizations up 140% Daily Death rate up 52%. If you live in the states and your local government is not telling you to social distance, wear masks and stay in when possible. Don't listen to them and be safe. Things are getting scary. https://covidtracking.com/dataedit: it is people like this your can't listen too. Testing is not the problem, this is like the ostrich head in the sand system, it is not good or remotely smart. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/09/889356233/stop-getting-tested-ohio-politician-tells-constituents
Wow, that is impressive. "The problem is not that we fucked up dealing with the pandemic, it is that the statistics show that we fucked up dealing with the pandemic."
How do they manage these mental gymnastics? And why does anyone take idiots like that seriously? Someone saying something this idiotic would be immediately pushed out of office by their constituents here.
What is making you look bad is not the testing. It is that you fucked up dealing with the pandemic because you have political blinders on which are so huge that they cover your entire face.
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On July 09 2020 13:51 Erasme wrote:
Btw, at 60k new cases a day, with a mortality rate of around 3.7%, thats 2.2k dead per day. I hope you and your covid deniers friends enjoy that.
A little thread PSA:
Calling people covid deniers, and alleging they enjoy more deaths should be below TeamLiquid. The division starts here, in this forum, in full view of every internet denizen that lives here.
I don't know what black part of this person's personality this is sourced from, or if it comes from some close personal tragedy, but don't write like this. If people aren't denying the pandemic, don't call them covid deniers.
If you have any humanity or common decency about your character, don't accuse others of enjoying the prospect of more dead.
The pandemic affects everyone, and thoughts like this just remind me that people can also choose to be divisive and use tragedies as a sort of weapon to go make ad hominems on other people. I like the impulse summed up in "We are all in this Together," but posts like this mean it actually isn't fully true.
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EPT
