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Coronavirus and You - Page 193

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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.

It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.

Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly.

This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here.

Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-07 16:06:21
July 07 2020 16:02 GMT
#3841
--- Nuked ---
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
July 07 2020 16:44 GMT
#3842
On July 07 2020 16:44 Lmui wrote:
The next major milestone for the US is 1% of total population officially infected by covid. This milestone should happen in the next week.

It's staggering how badly handled it is on the whole. They were the last major country to get hit, and are handling it about as badly as possible.

The canadian border is a bit leaky unfortunately with people who are "going to alaska". I live in a not touristy location, but Whistler, banff and other major destinations might get hammered by Americans.

Last major country to get hit? Does South America not have any major countries, somehow?

We should be seeing the start of increases in deaths, since states like Arizona had a surge starting in late May. That hasn't happened yet. Despite all the people telling me (at the time) just wait two weeks. Georgia weekly cases up 200% compared to last month, weekly deaths down 60%.

Handling it better is part of the reason, along with younger people getting tested and testing positive, and availability of PPE and testing in general. The country has been reopening, as it should, and the only things that will show we're "handling it about as badly as possible" is if hospitalizations exceed capacity, or deaths start mimicking the earlier peaks. (In fact, it's hard to find places that are handling the recent surge badly ... like they had plans and implemented them)
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 07 2020 16:56 GMT
#3843
--- Nuked ---
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
July 07 2020 17:16 GMT
#3844
On July 08 2020 01:02 JimmiC wrote:
Brazilian Prime minster just got diagnosed Covid, he has been against measures and even attempted to block measures in various states. Perhaps this experience will change his outlook.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/brazils-president-bolsonaro-tests-positive-for-covid-19/ar-BB16rxI0?li=AAggNb9


Just like Trump, he 100% will receive antibody plasma. He will not suffer. Antibody plasma treatment is totally nonviable for a whole country, but super easy when you just need to keep 1 dude alive.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
July 07 2020 17:24 GMT
#3845
India is looking like a pretty bad disaster at the moment, albeit one that seems not to draw all that much attention. Unlike most of the other countries topping the list, India is one where death tolls could be significantly underestimated because records of death in general are likely to be more than a little bit incomplete. Given the timing and incompetence of the response, I would not be surprised in the slightest if India has a higher actual death or infection rate than the US and Brazil. The official numbers they have now seem realistic for March or April, not July.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22490 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-07 17:29:09
July 07 2020 17:28 GMT
#3846
On July 08 2020 02:16 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2020 01:02 JimmiC wrote:
Brazilian Prime minster just got diagnosed Covid, he has been against measures and even attempted to block measures in various states. Perhaps this experience will change his outlook.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/brazils-president-bolsonaro-tests-positive-for-covid-19/ar-BB16rxI0?li=AAggNb9


Just like Trump, he 100% will receive antibody plasma. He will not suffer. Antibody plasma treatment is totally nonviable for a whole country, but super easy when you just need to keep 1 dude alive.
The effective of plasma treatment is in doubt.
A major hospital in the Netherlands stopped the research this week because patients are apparently already producing their own antibodies, and administering more doesn't seem to have much effect.

(source in dutch: www.ad.nl
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15743 Posts
July 07 2020 17:38 GMT
#3847
On July 08 2020 02:28 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2020 02:16 Mohdoo wrote:
On July 08 2020 01:02 JimmiC wrote:
Brazilian Prime minster just got diagnosed Covid, he has been against measures and even attempted to block measures in various states. Perhaps this experience will change his outlook.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/brazils-president-bolsonaro-tests-positive-for-covid-19/ar-BB16rxI0?li=AAggNb9


Just like Trump, he 100% will receive antibody plasma. He will not suffer. Antibody plasma treatment is totally nonviable for a whole country, but super easy when you just need to keep 1 dude alive.
The effective of plasma treatment is in doubt.
A major hospital in the Netherlands stopped the research this week because patients are apparently already producing their own antibodies, and administering more doesn't seem to have much effect.

(source in dutch: www.ad.nl


I'm not so sure I buy that, especially when effective plasma treatment for covid would basically create a humanitarian crisis. Since the best case scenario for antibody plasma treatment is shortly after a donor has recovered, with the correct donor blood type, I can't imagine a world where just getting blasted with a bunch of ripe plasma full of antibodies wouldn't help someone either prevent critical infection or prevent it all together.

The fundamentals of antibody plasma treatment, as I understand it, are pretty irrefutible, its just that the "ideal" scenario is incredibly unreasonable and COMPLETELY impossible on a large scale.

But if the US government was extremely methodical in securing plasma for Trump at the ideal times, from ideal donors, it would be negligent for him to not be receiving plasma treatment.
Lmui
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada6223 Posts
July 07 2020 23:21 GMT
#3848
On July 08 2020 01:44 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 07 2020 16:44 Lmui wrote:
The next major milestone for the US is 1% of total population officially infected by covid. This milestone should happen in the next week.

It's staggering how badly handled it is on the whole. They were the last major country to get hit, and are handling it about as badly as possible.

The canadian border is a bit leaky unfortunately with people who are "going to alaska". I live in a not touristy location, but Whistler, banff and other major destinations might get hammered by Americans.

Last major country to get hit? Does South America not have any major countries, somehow?

We should be seeing the start of increases in deaths, since states like Arizona had a surge starting in late May. That hasn't happened yet. Despite all the people telling me (at the time) just wait two weeks. Georgia weekly cases up 200% compared to last month, weekly deaths down 60%.

Handling it better is part of the reason, along with younger people getting tested and testing positive, and availability of PPE and testing in general. The country has been reopening, as it should, and the only things that will show we're "handling it about as badly as possible" is if hospitalizations exceed capacity, or deaths start mimicking the earlier peaks. (In fact, it's hard to find places that are handling the recent surge badly ... like they had plans and implemented them)


Compared to Italy, UK, France, Germany and a host of other countries, yeah USA was the last to get hit hard. They're also #1 in the world as far as cases and deaths go. Yeah, the states tests a lot, but when in excess of 15 of the tests turn out positive when you're doing that volume of testing, covid is spreading faster than you're testing. Florida performed 48.5k tests yesterday. Of those, 16.2% were positive. It was pretty clear months ago that to be able to control it, you need to test enough to get that under 5% in order to catch anyone who might have been exposed.

At the individual/hospital level, they're doing the best they can with resources available, but younger people getting infected will almost inevitably result in older populations getting hammered as well as they interact.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
July 08 2020 00:29 GMT
#3849
On July 08 2020 08:21 Lmui wrote:
Compared to Italy, UK, France, Germany and a host of other countries, yeah USA was the last to get hit hard.

That doesn't really seem entirely accurate. Italy was definitely ahead of the US in getting hit, as was Germany, but Spain and France only very slightly ahead and the UK was either behind or on par in terms of when the infection started to get as bad as it did. Russia and Brazil definitely had later infections.

The US was pretty cleanly in the middle on chronology of infection. That being said, some bad handling of the virus is quite valid to acknowledge. Perhaps as far as to note that for an allegedly "highest prepared for a pandemic" nation, it sure as hell should've noticed and responded to the disaster that was brewing in China, well before it reached Europe.That evidently was not a priority.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 08 2020 00:49 GMT
#3850
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-08 01:11:28
July 08 2020 00:49 GMT
#3851
--- Nuked ---
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
July 08 2020 03:59 GMT
#3852
On July 08 2020 08:21 Lmui wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2020 01:44 Danglars wrote:
On July 07 2020 16:44 Lmui wrote:
The next major milestone for the US is 1% of total population officially infected by covid. This milestone should happen in the next week.

It's staggering how badly handled it is on the whole. They were the last major country to get hit, and are handling it about as badly as possible.

The canadian border is a bit leaky unfortunately with people who are "going to alaska". I live in a not touristy location, but Whistler, banff and other major destinations might get hammered by Americans.

Last major country to get hit? Does South America not have any major countries, somehow?

We should be seeing the start of increases in deaths, since states like Arizona had a surge starting in late May. That hasn't happened yet. Despite all the people telling me (at the time) just wait two weeks. Georgia weekly cases up 200% compared to last month, weekly deaths down 60%.

Handling it better is part of the reason, along with younger people getting tested and testing positive, and availability of PPE and testing in general. The country has been reopening, as it should, and the only things that will show we're "handling it about as badly as possible" is if hospitalizations exceed capacity, or deaths start mimicking the earlier peaks. (In fact, it's hard to find places that are handling the recent surge badly ... like they had plans and implemented them)


Compared to Italy, UK, France, Germany and a host of other countries, yeah USA was the last to get hit hard. They're also #1 in the world as far as cases and deaths go. Yeah, the states tests a lot, but when in excess of 15 of the tests turn out positive when you're doing that volume of testing, covid is spreading faster than you're testing. Florida performed 48.5k tests yesterday. Of those, 16.2% were positive. It was pretty clear months ago that to be able to control it, you need to test enough to get that under 5% in order to catch anyone who might have been exposed.

So it appears you mean “Western Europe democracies.” Your “major countries” threw me for a loop.

At the individual/hospital level, they're doing the best they can with resources available, but younger people getting infected will almost inevitably result in older populations getting hammered as well as they interact.

Everybody knows how dangerous it is to the elderly. So I think we’ll keep seeing huge case growth and decreases or tiny bumps to deaths. See: Georgia month to month 200% case increase, 60% death decrease. See also: New York nursing home deaths are higher than Florida’s total deaths ... and you probably know the demographics of Florida.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Kipsate
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Netherlands45349 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-08 06:30:32
July 08 2020 06:29 GMT
#3853
I think a larger problem is that ICUs are getting maxed out in some places, so eventually even though you can treat them normally you simply dont have the capacity to do so. Plus this might influence non-covid patients too. Back to the idea of healthcare systems getting overwhelmed.

CFR ahould still be a lot lower because more young people and you test more widespread on average wheras previously it was skewed to more vurnerable groups. That and hospitals have overall getting better at treating people.
WriterXiao8~~
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
July 08 2020 06:44 GMT
#3854
I've seen ICU capacity flex to higher numbers in the worst places. Whatever floor capacity isn't designated COVID-ICU is rotated into that use, and other area hospitals help out. It's still possible that current strains do overwhelm capacity in the future, but there's not enough data to show that now. Hospitals are getting better at treating people. Arizona, as an example, has been patient transferring to smoothe loads, and bringing in out of state workers.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Wegandi
Profile Joined March 2011
United States2455 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-08 07:30:18
July 08 2020 07:29 GMT
#3855
On July 08 2020 15:29 Kipsate wrote:
I think a larger problem is that ICUs are getting maxed out in some places, so eventually even though you can treat them normally you simply dont have the capacity to do so. Plus this might influence non-covid patients too. Back to the idea of healthcare systems getting overwhelmed.

CFR ahould still be a lot lower because more young people and you test more widespread on average wheras previously it was skewed to more vurnerable groups. That and hospitals have overall getting better at treating people.


The lockdown was way worse for non-covid patients seeing as elective surgeries were cancelled and the fear and hysteria made many people stay home even when hospital services were warranted.

By the way, I'm curious why EU testing is so poopy? (I.e. low per capita testing rates)
Thank you bureaucrats for all your hard work, your commitment to public service and public good is essential to the lives of so many. Also, for Pete's sake can we please get some gun control already, no need for hand guns and assault rifles for the public
Geisterkarle
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
Germany3257 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-08 08:50:36
July 08 2020 08:49 GMT
#3856
On July 08 2020 16:29 Wegandi wrote:
By the way, I'm curious why EU testing is so poopy? (I.e. low per capita testing rates)

I asked somewhere, how the US is testing.
Can anyone get tested? Because at least here in Germany you basically can't!
Or better: a week ago Bavaria started a program so that anybody can test themselves. But that is only one county, they get backlash from the others and ... well, it started a week ago...
Before that Germany actually was hailed as a country to do a lot of testing!
But I also heard those "funny" stories of people tested positive, and their closest connections were like "Oh, should I get a test too?" and the local health department answered: "Do you have any symptoms? No? Meh, just quarantine yourself for 2 weeks and call us if you get a cough"
... and a day later you could read in the news, that Germany has a much higher capacity of testing, but it isn't used... ohoho, how could that happen!?!?!? ...
There can only be one Geisterkarle
Elroi
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden5617 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-08 09:23:05
July 08 2020 09:21 GMT
#3857
On July 08 2020 16:29 Wegandi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2020 15:29 Kipsate wrote:
I think a larger problem is that ICUs are getting maxed out in some places, so eventually even though you can treat them normally you simply dont have the capacity to do so. Plus this might influence non-covid patients too. Back to the idea of healthcare systems getting overwhelmed.

CFR ahould still be a lot lower because more young people and you test more widespread on average wheras previously it was skewed to more vurnerable groups. That and hospitals have overall getting better at treating people.


The lockdown was way worse for non-covid patients seeing as elective surgeries were cancelled and the fear and hysteria made many people stay home even when hospital services were warranted.

By the way, I'm curious why EU testing is so poopy? (I.e. low per capita testing rates)

From what I understand testing capacity varies greatly from country to country due to the availability of laboratories. Here in Sweden the government gets a lot of flack for not being able to analyze more tests quicker, despite promising to do so. On the other hand I think it is impressive that countries like South Korea managed to ramp up the testing so quickly.

But earlier on here, of course, the strategy wasn't to test as many people as possible and eliminate the disease, but rather to let it have its course in the safest way possible. So the number of tests were extremely low in the beginning compared to almost all other countries.
"To all eSports fans, I want to be remembered as a progamer who can make something out of nothing, and someone who always does his best. I think that is the right way of living, and I'm always doing my best to follow that." - Jaedong. /watch?v=jfghAzJqAp0
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 08 2020 18:02 GMT
#3858
--- Nuked ---
Derity
Profile Joined May 2009
Germany2952 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-08 19:20:21
July 08 2020 18:07 GMT
#3859
On July 08 2020 17:49 Geisterkarle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 08 2020 16:29 Wegandi wrote:
By the way, I'm curious why EU testing is so poopy? (I.e. low per capita testing rates)

I asked somewhere, how the US is testing.
Can anyone get tested? Because at least here in Germany you basically can't!
Or better: a week ago Bavaria started a program so that anybody can test themselves. But that is only one county, they get backlash from the others and ... well, it started a week ago...
Before that Germany actually was hailed as a country to do a lot of testing!
But I also heard those "funny" stories of people tested positive, and their closest connections were like "Oh, should I get a test too?" and the local health department answered: "Do you have any symptoms? No? Meh, just quarantine yourself for 2 weeks and call us if you get a cough"
... and a day later you could read in the news, that Germany has a much higher capacity of testing, but it isn't used... ohoho, how could that happen!?!?!? ...

You can find the Germany test numbers here, last week it was close to 500k. https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html
Overall capacity would be somewhat more than 1m per week.

Edited for clarity.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22490 Posts
July 08 2020 18:41 GMT
#3860
On July 08 2020 15:44 Danglars wrote:
I've seen ICU capacity flex to higher numbers in the worst places. Whatever floor capacity isn't designated COVID-ICU is rotated into that use, and other area hospitals help out. It's still possible that current strains do overwhelm capacity in the future, but there's not enough data to show that now. Hospitals are getting better at treating people. Arizona, as an example, has been patient transferring to smoothe loads, and bringing in out of state workers.
Meanwhile Texas appears to have 56 hospitals at capacity and another 34 at 10% or less remaining.

Healthcare in some parts of the US definitely appears to be reaching capacity, which is not going to be good for the fatality rate.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/506344-56-florida-icus-at-capacity-as-virus-surges
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
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