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On June 02 2019 03:46 CorsairHero wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2019 17:29 solidbebe wrote:
Try to time the market and you'll get squashed like a bug, that's the only advice I can give you. That and reinvest dividends Investing for retirement is pretty much figured out now and it's a race to the bottom for management fees on ETFs.
I'm not particularly experienced here. Why is reinvesting divdends bad?
Elaboration on the retirement thing would be interesting too.
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On December 16 2019 09:07 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On June 02 2019 03:46 CorsairHero wrote:On June 01 2019 17:29 solidbebe wrote:
Try to time the market and you'll get squashed like a bug, that's the only advice I can give you. That and reinvest dividends Investing for retirement is pretty much figured out now and it's a race to the bottom for management fees on ETFs. I'm not particularly experienced here. Why is reinvesting divdends bad? Elaboration on the retirement thing would be interesting too.
Maybe i should have worded it better. Reinvesting dividends is a very good thing and a huge part of total return.
Retirement portfolio construction is easy with as little as a single asset allocation fund that has some fixed income and global equity. Something like VBAL or VGRO is really all you need until you get to a high net worth where you can then optimize. It's everything else that's more difficult like estate planning and actually saving. Saving 20 basis points on management fees is far less important than actually putting money away.
But investing is boring because portfolio construction is so simple so you get much more activity in here about facebook or fiscal policy. For long term investors, that stuff is just noise 🤷
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On December 16 2019 20:21 CorsairHero wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2019 09:07 L_Master wrote:On June 02 2019 03:46 CorsairHero wrote:On June 01 2019 17:29 solidbebe wrote:
Try to time the market and you'll get squashed like a bug, that's the only advice I can give you. That and reinvest dividends Investing for retirement is pretty much figured out now and it's a race to the bottom for management fees on ETFs. I'm not particularly experienced here. Why is reinvesting divdends bad? Elaboration on the retirement thing would be interesting too. Maybe i should have worded it better. Reinvesting dividends is a very good thing and a huge part of total return. Retirement portfolio construction is easy with as little as a single asset allocation fund that has some fixed income and global equity. Something like VBAL or VGRO is really all you need until you get to a high net worth where you can then optimize. It's everything else that's more difficult like estate planning and actually saving. Saving 20 basis points on management fees is far less important than actually putting money away. But investing is boring because portfolio construction is so simple so you get much more activity in here about facebook or fiscal policy. For long term investors, that stuff is just noise 🤷
What's high net worth in this game? Are we talking a couple million to live comfortably off of, or well beyond that?
And okay, that jives with what I've been trying to think about as I get ready to really enter the workforce and start thinking about how to save and allocate now that I'll be earning something.
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On December 16 2019 08:46 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2019 04:02 Vivax wrote:On December 14 2019 02:01 BerserkSword wrote:On December 13 2019 23:51 Vivax wrote:
Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down. I'm still in all calls except FB which i closed yesterday after losing 40% on the position lmao. Thankfully it was my smallest position and my spy GAINZ are more paying for it in spades. In any case I looked at the DAX chart. Technicals are bullish imo. I think there is more upside to come at least on a medium term (daily to weekly chart). Hope your trade works out though. I'm a hardcore subscriber to Austrian economics and think this is a bubble and all as much as anyone, but never underestimate the ability of "them" to keep pumping things up, at least when it comes to U.S. markets and economics. It could go on for a lot longer. Maybe germany is different tho not financial advice lol Yea, it amazes me every time for how much longer they can keep this running up. For a few years now growth turned exponential esp. in tech stock looking much like the national debt curve while GDP growth stagnated. This time the bubble isn't even driven by general euphoria, but by buybacks, algos and central bank money. Without trying to be dramatic, but it looks like the governments/central bankers own the market, and any speculant has to play against them or along them. Makes me wonder if the only safe place left to store money as negative rates pervade the west to keep the scheme running are actually stocks of mega-corporations. Scary prospect for average joe and his savings and would explain these astronomic valuations, maybe it'll be currencies getting sacked ahead of stocks this time. The 10% would approve. What makes Germany different is pretty much the health of the banking system. US banks are as strong as ever, the two major German ones are out on a limb since 2k8. The more Ger bonds climb and rates sink, the more they suffer, it's a direct correlation. Not a bad pick for a guess for a banking crisis, negative rates on accounts are already in place, and these guys hoard hard cash to avoid paying rates to the ecb. Not a healthy picture. Definitely agree. Currencies are going to collapse before stocks. That’s interesting to note on German banks. I do think E.U. will crumble before the US does and I do agree that E.U. economies are closer to collapse It’s just that the DAX chart is clearly bullish imo. With at least another macro leg up imo. Hope your trade works out but those are some bullish technicals imo.
Currencies are going to collapse
What do people mean when they say this?
Which currencys will collapse and how will this collapse manifest itself?
To me it looks like a hollow phrase which means nothing but if want to be more specific about it then yes pls.
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On December 17 2019 03:46 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2019 08:46 BerserkSword wrote:On December 14 2019 04:02 Vivax wrote:On December 14 2019 02:01 BerserkSword wrote:On December 13 2019 23:51 Vivax wrote:
Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down. I'm still in all calls except FB which i closed yesterday after losing 40% on the position lmao. Thankfully it was my smallest position and my spy GAINZ are more paying for it in spades. In any case I looked at the DAX chart. Technicals are bullish imo. I think there is more upside to come at least on a medium term (daily to weekly chart). Hope your trade works out though. I'm a hardcore subscriber to Austrian economics and think this is a bubble and all as much as anyone, but never underestimate the ability of "them" to keep pumping things up, at least when it comes to U.S. markets and economics. It could go on for a lot longer. Maybe germany is different tho not financial advice lol Yea, it amazes me every time for how much longer they can keep this running up. For a few years now growth turned exponential esp. in tech stock looking much like the national debt curve while GDP growth stagnated. This time the bubble isn't even driven by general euphoria, but by buybacks, algos and central bank money. Without trying to be dramatic, but it looks like the governments/central bankers own the market, and any speculant has to play against them or along them. Makes me wonder if the only safe place left to store money as negative rates pervade the west to keep the scheme running are actually stocks of mega-corporations. Scary prospect for average joe and his savings and would explain these astronomic valuations, maybe it'll be currencies getting sacked ahead of stocks this time. The 10% would approve. What makes Germany different is pretty much the health of the banking system. US banks are as strong as ever, the two major German ones are out on a limb since 2k8. The more Ger bonds climb and rates sink, the more they suffer, it's a direct correlation. Not a bad pick for a guess for a banking crisis, negative rates on accounts are already in place, and these guys hoard hard cash to avoid paying rates to the ecb. Not a healthy picture. Definitely agree. Currencies are going to collapse before stocks. That’s interesting to note on German banks. I do think E.U. will crumble before the US does and I do agree that E.U. economies are closer to collapse It’s just that the DAX chart is clearly bullish imo. With at least another macro leg up imo. Hope your trade works out but those are some bullish technicals imo. Currencies are going to collapse What do people mean when they say this? Which currencys will collapse and how will this collapse manifest itself? To me it looks like a hollow phrase which means nothing but if want to be more specific about it then yes pls.
When goods and services become more precious than what people are willing to pay for it.
My guess. There's probably more examples. A government needs a steady amount of transactions within its tax realm to be able to serve its debts.
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On December 16 2019 23:46 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2019 20:21 CorsairHero wrote:On December 16 2019 09:07 L_Master wrote:On June 02 2019 03:46 CorsairHero wrote:On June 01 2019 17:29 solidbebe wrote:
Try to time the market and you'll get squashed like a bug, that's the only advice I can give you. That and reinvest dividends Investing for retirement is pretty much figured out now and it's a race to the bottom for management fees on ETFs. I'm not particularly experienced here. Why is reinvesting divdends bad? Elaboration on the retirement thing would be interesting too. Maybe i should have worded it better. Reinvesting dividends is a very good thing and a huge part of total return. Retirement portfolio construction is easy with as little as a single asset allocation fund that has some fixed income and global equity. Something like VBAL or VGRO is really all you need until you get to a high net worth where you can then optimize. It's everything else that's more difficult like estate planning and actually saving. Saving 20 basis points on management fees is far less important than actually putting money away. But investing is boring because portfolio construction is so simple so you get much more activity in here about facebook or fiscal policy. For long term investors, that stuff is just noise 🤷 What's high net worth in this game? Are we talking a couple million to live comfortably off of, or well beyond that?
It depends on whether you want any capital left at the end or not, pension, govt benefits, your lifestyle etc...3% withdrawal of 2 million is 60K which might be enough for some.
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On December 17 2019 03:46 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2019 08:46 BerserkSword wrote:On December 14 2019 04:02 Vivax wrote:On December 14 2019 02:01 BerserkSword wrote:On December 13 2019 23:51 Vivax wrote:
Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down. I'm still in all calls except FB which i closed yesterday after losing 40% on the position lmao. Thankfully it was my smallest position and my spy GAINZ are more paying for it in spades. In any case I looked at the DAX chart. Technicals are bullish imo. I think there is more upside to come at least on a medium term (daily to weekly chart). Hope your trade works out though. I'm a hardcore subscriber to Austrian economics and think this is a bubble and all as much as anyone, but never underestimate the ability of "them" to keep pumping things up, at least when it comes to U.S. markets and economics. It could go on for a lot longer. Maybe germany is different tho not financial advice lol Yea, it amazes me every time for how much longer they can keep this running up. For a few years now growth turned exponential esp. in tech stock looking much like the national debt curve while GDP growth stagnated. This time the bubble isn't even driven by general euphoria, but by buybacks, algos and central bank money. Without trying to be dramatic, but it looks like the governments/central bankers own the market, and any speculant has to play against them or along them. Makes me wonder if the only safe place left to store money as negative rates pervade the west to keep the scheme running are actually stocks of mega-corporations. Scary prospect for average joe and his savings and would explain these astronomic valuations, maybe it'll be currencies getting sacked ahead of stocks this time. The 10% would approve. What makes Germany different is pretty much the health of the banking system. US banks are as strong as ever, the two major German ones are out on a limb since 2k8. The more Ger bonds climb and rates sink, the more they suffer, it's a direct correlation. Not a bad pick for a guess for a banking crisis, negative rates on accounts are already in place, and these guys hoard hard cash to avoid paying rates to the ecb. Not a healthy picture. Definitely agree. Currencies are going to collapse before stocks. That’s interesting to note on German banks. I do think E.U. will crumble before the US does and I do agree that E.U. economies are closer to collapse It’s just that the DAX chart is clearly bullish imo. With at least another macro leg up imo. Hope your trade works out but those are some bullish technicals imo. Currencies are going to collapse What do people mean when they say this? Which currencys will collapse and how will this collapse manifest itself? To me it looks like a hollow phrase which means nothing but if want to be more specific about it then yes pls.
Well people who say this refer to the fiat currencies being printed and controlled by central banks.
It is not hollow at all. The fact of the matter is that monetary expansionist and interventionalist policies employed by every significant central bank I can think of means that those major currencies are being crushed in value over time.
Not everyone believes it's a bad thing, by the way. Keynesians love this stuff, for example. On the other end of the spectrum, Austrians (austrian chool of economics not the nationality) like myself think it's the harbinger of economic collapse.
Essentially, it means the fiat currency progressively is able to be exchanged for less capital as time goes on.
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It's kinda strange to watch US Steel, that was founded by JP Morgan and Andrew Carnegie, that used to be the biggest stock in the US, fade away into nothingness. Their entire market has been swept up by companies like Nucor, sending US Steels stock from 200$ to 13$ in a decade. End of an era.
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On December 17 2019 20:06 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2019 03:46 pmh wrote:On December 16 2019 08:46 BerserkSword wrote:On December 14 2019 04:02 Vivax wrote:On December 14 2019 02:01 BerserkSword wrote:On December 13 2019 23:51 Vivax wrote:
Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down. I'm still in all calls except FB which i closed yesterday after losing 40% on the position lmao. Thankfully it was my smallest position and my spy GAINZ are more paying for it in spades. In any case I looked at the DAX chart. Technicals are bullish imo. I think there is more upside to come at least on a medium term (daily to weekly chart). Hope your trade works out though. I'm a hardcore subscriber to Austrian economics and think this is a bubble and all as much as anyone, but never underestimate the ability of "them" to keep pumping things up, at least when it comes to U.S. markets and economics. It could go on for a lot longer. Maybe germany is different tho not financial advice lol Yea, it amazes me every time for how much longer they can keep this running up. For a few years now growth turned exponential esp. in tech stock looking much like the national debt curve while GDP growth stagnated. This time the bubble isn't even driven by general euphoria, but by buybacks, algos and central bank money. Without trying to be dramatic, but it looks like the governments/central bankers own the market, and any speculant has to play against them or along them. Makes me wonder if the only safe place left to store money as negative rates pervade the west to keep the scheme running are actually stocks of mega-corporations. Scary prospect for average joe and his savings and would explain these astronomic valuations, maybe it'll be currencies getting sacked ahead of stocks this time. The 10% would approve. What makes Germany different is pretty much the health of the banking system. US banks are as strong as ever, the two major German ones are out on a limb since 2k8. The more Ger bonds climb and rates sink, the more they suffer, it's a direct correlation. Not a bad pick for a guess for a banking crisis, negative rates on accounts are already in place, and these guys hoard hard cash to avoid paying rates to the ecb. Not a healthy picture. Definitely agree. Currencies are going to collapse before stocks. That’s interesting to note on German banks. I do think E.U. will crumble before the US does and I do agree that E.U. economies are closer to collapse It’s just that the DAX chart is clearly bullish imo. With at least another macro leg up imo. Hope your trade works out but those are some bullish technicals imo. Currencies are going to collapse What do people mean when they say this? Which currencys will collapse and how will this collapse manifest itself? To me it looks like a hollow phrase which means nothing but if want to be more specific about it then yes pls. Well people who say this refer to the fiat currencies being printed and controlled by central banks. It is not hollow at all. The fact of the matter is that monetary expansionist and interventionalist policies employed by every significant central bank I can think of means that those major currencies are being crushed in value over time. Not everyone believes it's a bad thing, by the way. Keynesians love this stuff, for example. On the other end of the spectrum, Austrians (austrian chool of economics not the nationality) like myself think it's the harbinger of economic collapse. Essentially, it means the fiat currency progressively is able to be exchanged for less capital as time goes on.
So when you talk collapse, is this a depression thing where stuff gets very rough for a decade or two and then bounces back? Something much worse? Or a nobody really knows thing?
If the middle one, what action do you take if you genuinely think such a thing is probable or certain as you appear to?
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On December 17 2019 20:06 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2019 03:46 pmh wrote:On December 16 2019 08:46 BerserkSword wrote:On December 14 2019 04:02 Vivax wrote:On December 14 2019 02:01 BerserkSword wrote:On December 13 2019 23:51 Vivax wrote:
Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down. I'm still in all calls except FB which i closed yesterday after losing 40% on the position lmao. Thankfully it was my smallest position and my spy GAINZ are more paying for it in spades. In any case I looked at the DAX chart. Technicals are bullish imo. I think there is more upside to come at least on a medium term (daily to weekly chart). Hope your trade works out though. I'm a hardcore subscriber to Austrian economics and think this is a bubble and all as much as anyone, but never underestimate the ability of "them" to keep pumping things up, at least when it comes to U.S. markets and economics. It could go on for a lot longer. Maybe germany is different tho not financial advice lol Yea, it amazes me every time for how much longer they can keep this running up. For a few years now growth turned exponential esp. in tech stock looking much like the national debt curve while GDP growth stagnated. This time the bubble isn't even driven by general euphoria, but by buybacks, algos and central bank money. Without trying to be dramatic, but it looks like the governments/central bankers own the market, and any speculant has to play against them or along them. Makes me wonder if the only safe place left to store money as negative rates pervade the west to keep the scheme running are actually stocks of mega-corporations. Scary prospect for average joe and his savings and would explain these astronomic valuations, maybe it'll be currencies getting sacked ahead of stocks this time. The 10% would approve. What makes Germany different is pretty much the health of the banking system. US banks are as strong as ever, the two major German ones are out on a limb since 2k8. The more Ger bonds climb and rates sink, the more they suffer, it's a direct correlation. Not a bad pick for a guess for a banking crisis, negative rates on accounts are already in place, and these guys hoard hard cash to avoid paying rates to the ecb. Not a healthy picture. Definitely agree. Currencies are going to collapse before stocks. That’s interesting to note on German banks. I do think E.U. will crumble before the US does and I do agree that E.U. economies are closer to collapse It’s just that the DAX chart is clearly bullish imo. With at least another macro leg up imo. Hope your trade works out but those are some bullish technicals imo. Currencies are going to collapse What do people mean when they say this? Which currencys will collapse and how will this collapse manifest itself? To me it looks like a hollow phrase which means nothing but if want to be more specific about it then yes pls. Well people who say this refer to the fiat currencies being printed and controlled by central banks. It is not hollow at all. The fact of the matter is that monetary expansionist and interventionalist policies employed by every significant central bank I can think of means that those major currencies are being crushed in value over time. Not everyone believes it's a bad thing, by the way. Keynesians love this stuff, for example. On the other end of the spectrum, Austrians (austrian chool of economics not the nationality) like myself think it's the harbinger of economic collapse. Essentially, it means the fiat currency progressively is able to be exchanged for less capital as time goes on.
Yes,money is becoming worth less all the time,this has been the case since they left the gold standard in 1913 i think it was (i saw a nice graph of inflation since ~1700 the other day and since start 20th century it has been exploding after having been more or less flat for 200 years).
But that is not 'currency collapsing",its a feature of the system.
When people say "currency collapsing" i am thinking of some kind of doom scenario,a sudden implosion of the whole monetary system. At least it sounds like that,thats why i called it hollow. Its a phrase which needs more specification.
In previous currency crisis (there have been many) it was mostly the currencys of developping countrys that crashed against the dollar or euro. But if the dollar or euro "collapse" then where do they crash against? They can not crash against themselves,they are the world reserve currency.
It would then have to manifest itself by hyper inflation in both the usa and europe. Is that what people expect will happen when they say "currencys will collapse" ? (genuinly curious,not meant as critizism).
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On December 18 2019 04:00 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2019 20:06 BerserkSword wrote:On December 17 2019 03:46 pmh wrote:On December 16 2019 08:46 BerserkSword wrote:On December 14 2019 04:02 Vivax wrote:On December 14 2019 02:01 BerserkSword wrote:On December 13 2019 23:51 Vivax wrote:
Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down. I'm still in all calls except FB which i closed yesterday after losing 40% on the position lmao. Thankfully it was my smallest position and my spy GAINZ are more paying for it in spades. In any case I looked at the DAX chart. Technicals are bullish imo. I think there is more upside to come at least on a medium term (daily to weekly chart). Hope your trade works out though. I'm a hardcore subscriber to Austrian economics and think this is a bubble and all as much as anyone, but never underestimate the ability of "them" to keep pumping things up, at least when it comes to U.S. markets and economics. It could go on for a lot longer. Maybe germany is different tho not financial advice lol Yea, it amazes me every time for how much longer they can keep this running up. For a few years now growth turned exponential esp. in tech stock looking much like the national debt curve while GDP growth stagnated. This time the bubble isn't even driven by general euphoria, but by buybacks, algos and central bank money. Without trying to be dramatic, but it looks like the governments/central bankers own the market, and any speculant has to play against them or along them. Makes me wonder if the only safe place left to store money as negative rates pervade the west to keep the scheme running are actually stocks of mega-corporations. Scary prospect for average joe and his savings and would explain these astronomic valuations, maybe it'll be currencies getting sacked ahead of stocks this time. The 10% would approve. What makes Germany different is pretty much the health of the banking system. US banks are as strong as ever, the two major German ones are out on a limb since 2k8. The more Ger bonds climb and rates sink, the more they suffer, it's a direct correlation. Not a bad pick for a guess for a banking crisis, negative rates on accounts are already in place, and these guys hoard hard cash to avoid paying rates to the ecb. Not a healthy picture. Definitely agree. Currencies are going to collapse before stocks. That’s interesting to note on German banks. I do think E.U. will crumble before the US does and I do agree that E.U. economies are closer to collapse It’s just that the DAX chart is clearly bullish imo. With at least another macro leg up imo. Hope your trade works out but those are some bullish technicals imo. Currencies are going to collapse What do people mean when they say this? Which currencys will collapse and how will this collapse manifest itself? To me it looks like a hollow phrase which means nothing but if want to be more specific about it then yes pls. Well people who say this refer to the fiat currencies being printed and controlled by central banks. It is not hollow at all. The fact of the matter is that monetary expansionist and interventionalist policies employed by every significant central bank I can think of means that those major currencies are being crushed in value over time. Not everyone believes it's a bad thing, by the way. Keynesians love this stuff, for example. On the other end of the spectrum, Austrians (austrian chool of economics not the nationality) like myself think it's the harbinger of economic collapse. Essentially, it means the fiat currency progressively is able to be exchanged for less capital as time goes on. Yes,money is becoming worth less all the time,this has been the case since they left the gold standard in 1913 i think it was (i saw a nice graph of inflation since ~1700 the other day and since start 20th century it has been exploding after having been more or less flat for 200 years). But that is not 'currency collapsing",its a feature of the system. When people say "currency collapsing" i am thinking of some kind of doom scenario,a sudden implosion of the whole monetary system. At least it sounds like that,thats why i called it hollow. Its a phrase which needs more specification. In previous currency crisis (there have been many) it was mostly the currencys of developping countrys that crashed against the dollar or euro. But if the dollar or euro "collapse" then where do they crash against? They can not crash against themselves,they are the world reserve currency. It would then have to manifest itself by hyper inflation in both the usa and europe. Is that what people expect will happen when they say "currencys will collapse" ? (genuinly curious,not meant as critizism).
Don't think it would be a wild west scenario, just limits on how much one can withdraw, maybe a bunch of haircuts here and there and then a monetary reform, but everyone keeps (more or) less their share of what they had. Collapse sounds a tad too melodramatic.
One can study Argentinas and Puerto Ricos defaults or Cyprus haircuts. I didn't recently and cba right now, but it's how things can work out.
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Gold up 25 $ during holidays when there's no trading. Smh stuff like this gives me the jitters. It was pinned around an average of 1470 for two months.
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exited roku calls for minuscule profit
still in my spy and fb calls
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On December 26 2019 15:03 Vivax wrote:
Gold up 25 $ during holidays when there's no trading. Smh stuff like this gives me the jitters. It was pinned around an average of 1470 for two months.
wasent gold around 1750$ in 2012?
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On December 29 2019 02:30 redlightdistrict wrote:Show nested quote +On December 26 2019 15:03 Vivax wrote:
Gold up 25 $ during holidays when there's no trading. Smh stuff like this gives me the jitters. It was pinned around an average of 1470 for two months. wasent gold around 1750$ in 2012?
That was mostly a fear-driven spec. bubble. But even buying into that you'd have made money by now I think. Definitely if paying with Euros.
My guess for 2020: When the speculative pressure against the USD reaches dangerous levels, the fed will hike rates.
Don't really see the benefits for the US of going for a crack-up boom.
Spikes in junk bond yields accompany stock market declines. Don't know if they precede them or if it happens in tandem atm. But you can watch the Greek bond yield on the 2nd Dec. and watch what happened in stocks at the same time.
While stocks seemed rather stable since the melt-up, there's been quite a bit of movement in the FX market.
Lowering the rates of bad bonds so far leads to the increase in high quality bond rates. I read it as superior economies pulling up the weak ones.
Nobel prize worthy if you manage to calculate a breaking point for this pressure pot, probably.
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United States43350 Posts
It’s impossible to calculate because markets are driven by irrational factors. You can use a model to calculate the value of something based on measurable data such as discounted cash flows but that only tells you what it would be rational to pay for something (as in it would be irrational to pay more for company A than you would for company B which has comparable cash flows). That’s the problem. You can calculate what a bond is worth but you can’t calculate what people will pay for it.
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On January 02 2020 05:46 KwarK wrote:
It’s impossible to calculate because markets are driven by irrational factors. You can use a model to calculate the value of something based on measurable data such as discounted cash flows but that only tells you what it would be rational to pay for something (as in it would be irrational to pay more for company A than you would for company B which has comparable cash flows). That’s the problem. You can calculate what a bond is worth but you can’t calculate what people will pay for it.
I don't think those rules apply here, there's too much coordinated CB intervention nowadays for simple supply/demand mechanisms. Yea sure, in theory an ounce of gold isn't worth much when you're starving, but the price for bonds is currently being financially engineered to keep us afloat, and in the case of the BoJ even the price of stocks (afaik no other CB is allowed to buy stocks but I could picture them using the BoJ for the job in their own equity markets) .
I was even there when the liquidity faucet was opened in October 9 around 9-10 AM CEST. My trading system became unavailable for something over an hour due to the buy orders swarming in after the day started out looking like a sell-off. Been an almost constant rally for CB balance sheets and equities since.
I highly doubt that when/before breaking point is reached, they'll let the markets run their course. More likely that some new legislation is already being prepared for a smoother monetary transition without any crashes or inflationary scenarios in the way.
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Gold ramping up like crazy before US opens
Smells like we're in for something
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On December 18 2019 04:00 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2019 20:06 BerserkSword wrote:On December 17 2019 03:46 pmh wrote:On December 16 2019 08:46 BerserkSword wrote:On December 14 2019 04:02 Vivax wrote:On December 14 2019 02:01 BerserkSword wrote:On December 13 2019 23:51 Vivax wrote:
Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down. I'm still in all calls except FB which i closed yesterday after losing 40% on the position lmao. Thankfully it was my smallest position and my spy GAINZ are more paying for it in spades. In any case I looked at the DAX chart. Technicals are bullish imo. I think there is more upside to come at least on a medium term (daily to weekly chart). Hope your trade works out though. I'm a hardcore subscriber to Austrian economics and think this is a bubble and all as much as anyone, but never underestimate the ability of "them" to keep pumping things up, at least when it comes to U.S. markets and economics. It could go on for a lot longer. Maybe germany is different tho not financial advice lol Yea, it amazes me every time for how much longer they can keep this running up. For a few years now growth turned exponential esp. in tech stock looking much like the national debt curve while GDP growth stagnated. This time the bubble isn't even driven by general euphoria, but by buybacks, algos and central bank money. Without trying to be dramatic, but it looks like the governments/central bankers own the market, and any speculant has to play against them or along them. Makes me wonder if the only safe place left to store money as negative rates pervade the west to keep the scheme running are actually stocks of mega-corporations. Scary prospect for average joe and his savings and would explain these astronomic valuations, maybe it'll be currencies getting sacked ahead of stocks this time. The 10% would approve. What makes Germany different is pretty much the health of the banking system. US banks are as strong as ever, the two major German ones are out on a limb since 2k8. The more Ger bonds climb and rates sink, the more they suffer, it's a direct correlation. Not a bad pick for a guess for a banking crisis, negative rates on accounts are already in place, and these guys hoard hard cash to avoid paying rates to the ecb. Not a healthy picture. Definitely agree. Currencies are going to collapse before stocks. That’s interesting to note on German banks. I do think E.U. will crumble before the US does and I do agree that E.U. economies are closer to collapse It’s just that the DAX chart is clearly bullish imo. With at least another macro leg up imo. Hope your trade works out but those are some bullish technicals imo. Currencies are going to collapse What do people mean when they say this? Which currencys will collapse and how will this collapse manifest itself? To me it looks like a hollow phrase which means nothing but if want to be more specific about it then yes pls. Well people who say this refer to the fiat currencies being printed and controlled by central banks. It is not hollow at all. The fact of the matter is that monetary expansionist and interventionalist policies employed by every significant central bank I can think of means that those major currencies are being crushed in value over time. Not everyone believes it's a bad thing, by the way. Keynesians love this stuff, for example. On the other end of the spectrum, Austrians (austrian chool of economics not the nationality) like myself think it's the harbinger of economic collapse. Essentially, it means the fiat currency progressively is able to be exchanged for less capital as time goes on. Yes,money is becoming worth less all the time,this has been the case since they left the gold standard in 1913 i think it was (i saw a nice graph of inflation since ~1700 the other day and since start 20th century it has been exploding after having been more or less flat for 200 years). But that is not 'currency collapsing",its a feature of the system. When people say "currency collapsing" i am thinking of some kind of doom scenario,a sudden implosion of the whole monetary system. At least it sounds like that,thats why i called it hollow. Its a phrase which needs more specification. In previous currency crisis (there have been many) it was mostly the currencys of developping countrys that crashed against the dollar or euro. But if the dollar or euro "collapse" then where do they crash against? They can not crash against themselves,they are the world reserve currency. It would then have to manifest itself by hyper inflation in both the usa and europe. Is that what people expect will happen when they say "currencys will collapse" ? (genuinly curious,not meant as critizism).
Yes. That’s what people generally refer to. Overall massive economic depression caused by the market distortion of fiat money among other things
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