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On November 05 2019 11:37 FiWiFaKi wrote: I sold my whole DJI + SP 500 portfolio today, up 13% since March.
I have a gut feeling we're in for times of turmoil, hoping to buy back at a dip of <25k Dow, or wait out the impending recession, I know it's against the thinking of most people here.
Still kicking myself for not going big on Amd, that being an industry I know plenty about. Just need to look for the right opportunity now.
What are your guys' opinions about the market at the moment, any specific industries or economic regions that are looking promising? I'm trying the best I can to avoid any financial news
I wish I saw this post earlier.
My opinion on the market is overall bullish for the near future. However I only analyze and trade the technicals.
The indices just broke out of 2 year long trading ranges, tranding ranges that I believe to have been re-accumulation (which is why I bought DIA calls as I posted here before)
So far my belief that it had been Wyckoff re-accumulation has been correct.
A dip to <25k is a tall order, but I do have some Elliot Wave counts that could bring us back to that region before resuming the ascent. Gun to my head it's unlikely though, since we broke out of so many macro structures like the 2 year long trading range as well as the bullish megaphone.
Perhaps maybe next time you can use a trailing stop loss or something that would stop you out in profit. Or just take partial profits and let some ride. Timing the indices based on fundamentals is inefficient imo, and tbh impossible to do consistently (as you can probably tell i dont believe in trading on fundamentals). Or you can learn some basic technical analysis to help you know when to exit (divergences, VSA, fibonacci extensions, etc)
My ultimate target before a macro correction is 340-360 for SPY (can't really give u a timeframe though). As you should know - TA is not a crystal ball, so dont take any of this as gospel. These are just my opinions not financial advice.
If I remember I will post all my big trades on here like the DIA calls.
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bought some dec FB and HD calls
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FB pumped and HD tanked on earnings so i sold everything for a smaller net gain lol
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For dow I think this is it for this year and not much will happen anymore,barring any disaster around trump. Untill 31 dec between 27k and maybe 29k with a low volume rally in the final week after Christmas with 28k close as most likely and 27k as the lowest.
Best region right now I think is Russia,anything basicly. They had a very long through after the collapse of the communist party,started going up under putin and are really taking off now.Not only economically,their geopolitical power is also on the rise. They have the perfect location to benefit from other big growth regions,beeing in the mid between china,inda and the eu. For long term (10-20 years) I am very bullish on Russia but its a difficult country when it comes to investing due to "corruption" so you need to do a ton of research.
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On November 22 2019 00:07 pmh wrote: For dow I think this is it for this year and not much will happen anymore,barring any disaster around trump. Untill 31 dec between 27k and maybe 29k with a low volume rally in the final week after Christmas with 28k close as most likely and 27k as the lowest.
Best region right now I think is Russia,anything basicly. They had a very long through after the collapse of the communist party,started going up under putin and are really taking off now.Not only economically,their geopolitical power is also on the rise. They have the perfect location to benefit from other big growth regions,beeing in the mid between china,inda and the eu. For long term (10-20 years) I am very bullish on Russia but its a difficult country when it comes to investing due to "corruption" so you need to do a ton of research.
Russia and China are heavily regulated and if you buy something there you need to have a ton of faith that the government will just let you handle it or keep it as you please. Free ownership is a construct of our hemisphere and who guarantees that it's going to stay that way with the constant moves towards authoritarianism?
Notable quotes I keep in mind are UAE warning of oil prices around 220 a few months back and Putin saying that the dollar will collapse soon in a recent interview. But soon is a very unspecific time frame. I don't think either of them are charitable angels, but I also believe they weren't being dishonest. I certainly believe them to be more honest than my mainstream media and our central banks (at least when it comes to economy).
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currently sitting in jan 2020 aapl calls
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Judging by the fed balance sheet I'd expect another plunge soon unless it starts increasing again.
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i closed those aapl calls on friday
today bought march fb calls and jan, march, and june spy calls
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Yeah sometimes that works. Worked for me once buying nvidia after a 60 $ drop Jan last year. Retrospectively, buying the dip after bad news on single stocks paid off, but not during an overall market decline.
15th Dec trade talks resume and Trump will start tweeting some bs again, repo operations (not so subtle liquidity injections) end around Jan. I stay bearish and still believe that a crash is overdue, although I took a good beating with my shorts a while ago.
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On December 10 2019 14:39 Vivax wrote:Yeah sometimes that works. Worked for me once buying nvidia after a 60 $ drop Jan last year. Retrospectively, buying the dip after bad news on single stocks paid off, but not during an overall market decline. 15th Dec trade talks resume and Trump will start tweeting some bs again, repo operations (not so subtle liquidity injections) end around Jan. I stay bearish and still believe that a crash is overdue, although I took a good beating with my shorts a while ago. I'm betting on the market staying up until the end of the 2020 elections b/c its the only thing still keep Trump in office. With Dems finally giving up the fight with NAFTA, this should keep the bubble for another year https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-12-10/revised-nafta-mexico-white-house-democrats
+ Show Spoiler +After months of negotiations and a last-minute hitch involving Mexico, the White House and House Democrats have reached a deal that clears the way for passage of a revised North American free-trade pact.
“We got the agreement, we’re going to go with it,” House Ways and Means Committee chairman Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.) said Tuesday. Neal’s committee handles trade policy in the House.
Although the announcement of the deal comes on the same day that House leaders unveiled their impeachment resolution against Trump, “you can’t control the timing,” Neal said.
“Sometimes they coincide — there’s not much you can do about it. I repeatedly noted that when we got the agreement, we would go with it,” he said.
The deal between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) and President Trump’s chief trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, came after intense talks with Mexico over Democrats’ demands for stronger labor enforcement rules, a major obstacle in advancing the long-stalled accord. Trump reached a deal last year with Mexico and Canada, but Pelosi and other Democratic leaders refused to schedule a House vote until their demands were met.
The agreement is expected to be officially announced later today.
Whether Congress has enough time to vote on the accord before the end of the year remains uncertain, but it’s now likely that Trump will be able to claim he has fulfilled a signature campaign promise before the 2020 election.
Shortly after Neal’s comment, Trump hailed the agreement: “America’s great USMCA Trade Bill is looking good,” he wrote on Twitter.
For Pelosi and other Democrats, who wanted to shape key elements of the trade agreement, ratifying the pact would provide a rare legislative accomplishment in a sharply divided Congress, allowing them to make a case to voters that they can legislate even during the impeachment inquiry into the president.
Trump and Republican lawmakers have repeatedly criticized Pelosi and her colleagues in recent weeks for not passing the revised North American Free Trade Agreement, newly named the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Congressional Democrats argued that the revisions lacked sufficient enforcement terms to protect unions and workers’ rights in Mexico.
Many Democrats and labor groups blame NAFTA for a flight of production and jobs to Mexico, where wages are much lower and workers have had few organizing rights. Pelosi insisted she would not move the new trade deal forward without additional language on labor enforcement, as well as changes on market monopoly for certain drugs and stronger environmental protections.
While some Democrats were loath to do Trump any political favors, Pelosi faced pressure from moderates, including freshman lawmakers in her party, who have worried they could pay a price if Congress did not pass a trade pact with America’s two largest trading partners.
Trump hopes passage of the USMCA could help him with constituencies in the Midwest, where his trade war with China has hurt farmers and manufacturers.
As a candidate three years ago, Trump promised to overhaul trade policy. But he has had little to show for multiple tariffs and other extraordinary tactics he has used as he has aggressively sought concessions from trading partners.
Except for a small update to the U.S. trade pact with South Korea and a recent limited deal with Japan, he has been unable to win any deals.
In his campaign and since taking office, Trump has frequently denounced NAFTA as a disaster for U.S. industry and workers. And last fall, after more than a year of negotiations, Trump and the leaders of Canada and Mexico signed off on a revised trilateral pact.
The USMCA, while not a major overhaul of NAFTA, includes notable changes to rules governing production of automobiles and parts and resolving disputes between governments and private investors.
It also contains new or updated provisions on digital trade, financial services and other areas of commerce that were not major factors when NAFTA was ratified a quarter-century ago.
Tariffs in North America already were almost entirely removed by NAFTA, so the updated accord isn’t likely to have much impact on the pace of exports of U.S. farm goods to Mexico and Canada. At the same time, farmers have been unsettled by the trade war with China, and completing the North American trade agreement, they said, would reduce some of the worries about the future.
“It just causes uncertainty with the threat of companies wanting to look for other sources,” said Michelle Jones, who with her family farms wheat and barley in central Montana, and has been closely following the trade discussions from 2,000 miles away. Mexico is the largest export market for U.S. barley and also a big buyer of wheat.
Even though Trump and the heads of Canada and Mexico formally signed the proposed USMCA more than a year ago, it was only in the last few months that Lighthizer began negotiating with a working group of House Democrats. He went back and forth in an effort to reach a compromise on changes that Pelosi and her colleagues demanded, even as partisan rancor intensified in Washington over impeachment proceedings.
More recently Lighthizer stepped up the talks with Mexico. And throughout last week he and Mexico’s undersecretary for North America, Jesús Seade, were ensconced in meetings in Washington.
To ensure compliance, some House Democrats and labor groups had pressed to allow U.S. inspectors at Mexican plants and for the ability to block goods at the border for noncompliance with rules on collective bargaining and other workers’ rights.
U.S. and Mexican officials also wrangled over what kinds of steel would be allowed to meet the USMCA’s new requirement that 70% of the metal for car production be sourced in North America.
Mexican authorities and business owners have balked at the idea of U.S. inspectors in Mexican plants, calling it an infringement on their national sovereignty — always a sensitive issue in relations with their bigger American neighbor.
Last spring Mexico passed new labor law reforms under its populist leftist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, in large part to align with the revised trade accord.
Still, in a nation with relatively few independent unions — labor syndicates have long been allied with political parties or the government, and are notorious for siding with management — there is clearly a fear that the presence of U.S. labor inspectors could empower Mexican workers to start truly independent unions, and push for higher wages and other labor rights.
Moreover, sources monitoring the talks said that companies in Mexico, including multinationals, had pushed back on language that would allow shipments to be stopped at the border as a penalty if they failed to comply.
It wasn’t clear that Mexico had agreed to all the terms, but it appeared enough to have met Democrats’ demands for meaningful enforcement of labor standards.
On Monday, the AFL-CIO and its president, Richard Trumka, gave a crucial vote of support for the deal.
While the agreement on labor enforcement marks a key breakthrough, Pelosi has said she wants to see any White House changes to the accord in writing.
House Democrats are expected to hold so-called mock markups on a draft bill with the text of the trade accord, a procedure that would allow lawmakers, business groups and other parties to react and possibly seek additional changes.
“Given the limited time remaining on the 2019 congressional calendar, and the possibility that the presidential election will deter consideration of the agreement in 2020, there is a significant chance that the USMCA will not be implemented in the near-term,” Brian Picone and Scott Lincicome, trade experts at the international law firm White & Case, wrote in a recent assessment of the outlook for USMCA.
Daniel Ujczo, a trade lawyer at the firm Dickinson Wright, said: “Everybody’s going to have to take a look and see if it’s go or no-go. What does the private sector, what do the stakeholders think of this deal that’s been made? Many trade deals have been made during markups, and many more have been sent back for more work.”
He added, “So we’re just entering a very important phase right now. And that process is all going to happen while the impeachment trial is going on throughout December.”
Lighthizer and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, were traveling to Mexico on Tuesday where they are expected to announce the revised agreement.
The Mexican Senate was briefed on the deal over the weekend. And on Monday, López Obrador, expressing optimism that an agreement was at hand, urged U.S. legislators to act swiftly before next year’s election season comes into full swing.
“Very respectfully, I say we don’t want this very important issue for the economies of three nations to be connected, to mix with, political-electoral matters,” he told reporters.
The comments seemed to reflect a fear in Mexico that the stalled trade-deal debate could extend into next year’s U.S. electoral season, giving some candidates an opportunity to use the accord for the kind of Mexico-bashing that candidate Trump employed during his presidential campaign.
What’s more, many in Mexico do not want to see the proposed USMCA fall through and risk the possibility of Trump withdrawing from NAFTA, which he has threatened in the past. The Mexican economy has been sluggish, and López Obrador and others clearly recognize the importance of U.S. trade, which accounts for almost 80% of Mexico’s exports.
López Obrador has already proved himself willing to make painful concessions to the Trump administration, notably in the arena of migration: Mexico agreed earlier this year to crack down on U.S.-bound Central Americans after Trump threatened steep tariffs on Mexican imports.
Manuel Molano, an analyst at the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness think tank in Mexico City, said Mexican businesses would prefer doing trade under the original NAFTA, especially as the USMCA is likely to slow Mexico’s once-rapidly-growing auto industry.
Still, that’s better than no agreement at all, he said. “Business leaders here will end up agreeing that USMCA is more important than any significant worries about [Mexican] salaries.” China should seriously entertain the thought of throwing their economy into a depression during this election year so the US recesses, Trump gets ousted, and they could work out a more favorable long team trade deal in 2020.
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Powells speech is sending EUR/USD and gold up. If I got it correctly, he's implying a higher inflation target. Kinda fitting shortly after the death of Volcker (rip) who had the job of combating it back in his days.
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United States41988 Posts
Literally over Volcker’s dead body.
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Who'd have thought it was Trump tweet time?
Welcome back to a new edition of pump n' dump. Taking bets on the day of dump. Reading the comments on his tweets is pure gold by the way.
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Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down.
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On December 13 2019 23:51 Vivax wrote: Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down.
I'm still in all calls except FB which i closed yesterday after losing 40% on the position lmao.
Thankfully it was my smallest position and my spy GAINZ are more paying for it in spades.
In any case I looked at the DAX chart. Technicals are bullish imo. I think there is more upside to come at least on a medium term (daily to weekly chart). Hope your trade works out though.
I'm a hardcore subscriber to Austrian economics and think this is a bubble and all as much as anyone, but never underestimate the ability of "them" to keep pumping things up, at least when it comes to U.S. markets and economics. It could go on for a lot longer. Maybe germany is different tho
not financial advice lol
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re entered march 2020 fb calls lmao
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On December 14 2019 02:01 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2019 23:51 Vivax wrote: Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down. I'm still in all calls except FB which i closed yesterday after losing 40% on the position lmao. Thankfully it was my smallest position and my spy GAINZ are more paying for it in spades. In any case I looked at the DAX chart. Technicals are bullish imo. I think there is more upside to come at least on a medium term (daily to weekly chart). Hope your trade works out though. I'm a hardcore subscriber to Austrian economics and think this is a bubble and all as much as anyone, but never underestimate the ability of "them" to keep pumping things up, at least when it comes to U.S. markets and economics. It could go on for a lot longer. Maybe germany is different tho not financial advice lol
Yea, it amazes me every time for how much longer they can keep this running up. For a few years now growth turned exponential esp. in tech stock looking much like the national debt curve while GDP growth stagnated.
This time the bubble isn't even driven by general euphoria, but by buybacks, algos and central bank money. Without trying to be dramatic, but it looks like the governments/central bankers own the market, and any speculant has to play against them or along them.
Makes me wonder if the only safe place left to store money as negative rates pervade the west to keep the scheme running are actually stocks of mega-corporations. Scary prospect for average joe and his savings and would explain these astronomic valuations, maybe it'll be currencies getting sacked ahead of stocks this time. The 10% would approve.
What makes Germany different is pretty much the health of the banking system. US banks are as strong as ever, the two major German ones are out on a limb since 2k8. The more Ger bonds climb and rates sink, the more they suffer, it's a direct correlation. Not a bad pick for a guess for a banking crisis, negative rates on accounts are already in place, and these guys hoard hard cash to avoid paying rates to the ecb. Not a healthy picture.
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On December 14 2019 04:02 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2019 02:01 BerserkSword wrote:On December 13 2019 23:51 Vivax wrote: Today's a big day. Exit your positions and stay poised to get in quickly when something happens would be my advice.
Impeachment hearings and feedback from China to the Trump tweet incoming at the same time. Watch the charts to see some madness.
Not even as crazy a movement as I expected it to be. Placed a short on the DAX afterwards. There's a sold off candle line sticking out like a sore thumb from the upper BB, something I find to be very alarming for the weeks to come. It means that an ATH has been rejected in the face of the fed dumping 500 billions through repo.
Doesn't mean too much in hindsight but I'm biased because I'm convinced this bubble is about to pop and I'm impatiently waiting for an opportunity to ride it down. I'm still in all calls except FB which i closed yesterday after losing 40% on the position lmao. Thankfully it was my smallest position and my spy GAINZ are more paying for it in spades. In any case I looked at the DAX chart. Technicals are bullish imo. I think there is more upside to come at least on a medium term (daily to weekly chart). Hope your trade works out though. I'm a hardcore subscriber to Austrian economics and think this is a bubble and all as much as anyone, but never underestimate the ability of "them" to keep pumping things up, at least when it comes to U.S. markets and economics. It could go on for a lot longer. Maybe germany is different tho not financial advice lol Yea, it amazes me every time for how much longer they can keep this running up. For a few years now growth turned exponential esp. in tech stock looking much like the national debt curve while GDP growth stagnated. This time the bubble isn't even driven by general euphoria, but by buybacks, algos and central bank money. Without trying to be dramatic, but it looks like the governments/central bankers own the market, and any speculant has to play against them or along them. Makes me wonder if the only safe place left to store money as negative rates pervade the west to keep the scheme running are actually stocks of mega-corporations. Scary prospect for average joe and his savings and would explain these astronomic valuations, maybe it'll be currencies getting sacked ahead of stocks this time. The 10% would approve. What makes Germany different is pretty much the health of the banking system. US banks are as strong as ever, the two major German ones are out on a limb since 2k8. The more Ger bonds climb and rates sink, the more they suffer, it's a direct correlation. Not a bad pick for a guess for a banking crisis, negative rates on accounts are already in place, and these guys hoard hard cash to avoid paying rates to the ecb. Not a healthy picture.
Definitely agree. Currencies are going to collapse before stocks.
That’s interesting to note on German banks. I do think E.U. will crumble before the US does and I do agree that E.U. economies are closer to collapse
It’s just that the DAX chart is clearly bullish imo. With at least another macro leg up imo. Hope your trade works out but those are some bullish technicals imo.
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