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ill get back to the money supply tomorrow.
for now im eyeing the yield curve inversion flattening and the fact that repo operations continue and increased while t-bill yield increased. considering those are the securities for lending, it means that the fed can‘t continue these operations for much longer without risking to have their balance sheet shrink (ie lose money). so Im expecting the guys in a credit crunch to be left to their fate sometime soon if QE4 isn‘t announced.
the TED spread looks fine though. so i might be overreacting to this repo shit.
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On October 07 2019 22:10 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2019 22:04 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
I just put 3k into an Aussie gold miner, Northern Star.
Following daily gold movements is IMO a waste of time, too heavily manipulated price can go anywhere.
Just buy + hold and stress less.
Reading your posts is legit stressful. I'd advise you to read this article first: https://www.goldrepublic.com/news/why-gold-prices-fell-in-2008All prices are threatened when a default domino begins.
Banks are threatened too when default dominos start.EU passed bank bail in laws in 2016.Capital controls, loss of deposits and spending limits are a risk.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/fsr/art/ecb.fsrart201605_02.en.pdf
So it just depends how much worse you think the next crisis will be, but I agree with you that it will happen soon.
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Didn't see the 100% correlation between money supply and indices last I checked.
What a massacre today. Far from a panic though.
20 new short positions in the Bundesanzeiger taken yesterday.
Switched to long before Powells speech for the new QE rally before Trump sends it all to hell during negotiations probably lol.
Silver went up by 1% while gold got hammered by the plunge protection teams. There'll probably be a gold rally based on this discrepancy (well, a small increase before getting hammered back to the 1.5k range)
Turns out there's some really crazy shit going on. But I'm too afraid to post about it lol.
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On May 13 2019 21:30 Ryzel wrote:
@BerserkSword
Are there any links you could provide on good online resources for learning technical/trend analysis? And (if you feel like answering) I’d be curious to know what kinds of monthly RoI numbers you’re pulling.
Thanks!
are you still interested? if so I can start gathering all the resources Ive used over the years
My main methods of technical analysis are elliot wave, wyckkoff/VSA, and price action. I also look at a variety of other things though lol
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On October 08 2019 18:38 Vivax wrote:
Switched to long before Powells speech for the new QE rally before Trump sends it all to hell during negotiations probably lol.
You still long?
I got me some Nov 22 Calls for DIA lmao
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reading some of the posts in here after i forgot about this topic.
Just want to make one thing clear -
Making a living off of trading is not an impossible feat. Being a profitable day trader is not impossible.
It's not easy, but it can be done.
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On October 09 2019 06:53 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2019 18:38 Vivax wrote:
Switched to long before Powells speech for the new QE rally before Trump sends it all to hell during negotiations probably lol. You still long? I got me some Nov 22 Calls for DIA lmao
Nah just went long Tesla and Nvidia because of the open downwards gaps. That uptrend didn't last long but it was moderately profitable.
When plunge protection started dumping their stuff during Powell's speech I went short again.
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bleh. I'd just stay out of this market for now. It's creepy.
On October 09 2019 21:42 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I made a few thousands off the weed market; which has been correcting itself for a bit now. Still a good place to come up though.
I wanted to but I wasn't sure about the legal status here as a bunch of warnings flew in about becoming untradeable on tradegate or something.
I have analyzed the recent upward gaps and the last two ones got closed 4 days later in pretty spectacular plunges.
I have never seen intraday gaps like todays though. one at 9:18, one at 10:43.
Besides, ever since those gaps, it's been algos trading up and down in a precise range.
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I made a few thousands off the weed market; which has been correcting itself for a bit now. Still a good place to come up though.
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Had a dream about me making a shit-ton of money buying extremely high-risk calls and puts and gloating about it on/r/wallstreetbets. Might get back into trading again
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On October 09 2019 06:44 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2019 21:30 Ryzel wrote:
@BerserkSword
Are there any links you could provide on good online resources for learning technical/trend analysis? And (if you feel like answering) I’d be curious to know what kinds of monthly RoI numbers you’re pulling.
Thanks! are you still interested? if so I can start gathering all the resources Ive used over the years My main methods of technical analysis are elliot wave, wyckkoff/VSA, and price action. I also look at a variety of other things though lol
Sure, I know barely anything about it but my job gives me some time to kill in the mornings and I feel it might be worthwhile to invest some effort and see if I can be at all successful in this.
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On October 10 2019 01:34 plasmidghost wrote:
Had a dream about me making a shit-ton of money buying extremely high-risk calls and puts and gloating about it on/r/wallstreetbets. Might get back into trading again
Meanwhile I dream of central banks going bankrupt with their inverventionism. Then they just laugh at the money you made and inflate it away to get rid of their debt before introducing a new currency if the bank you're trading with didn't go bust already along with your gains. One can keep dreaming.
Given that the top is reached, this is the new era of semi-state-owned corporations where the stock market is a tool to induce fear and unpopular reforms. Probably why Trump is trying to kill it a bit so he can crown himself emperor for life.
Even if there is a crash, the dow won't get past 22000, at most 18000. Too much QE and early birds below. It'd take a global cataclysm for that to happen. Luckily our economy is working towards that.
Just waiting for Trump to deliver the usual disappointment tomorrow. He just loves being a dick.
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On October 10 2019 03:43 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2019 01:34 plasmidghost wrote:
Had a dream about me making a shit-ton of money buying extremely high-risk calls and puts and gloating about it on/r/wallstreetbets. Might get back into trading again Meanwhile I dream of central banks going bankrupt with their inverventionism. Then they just laugh at the money you made and inflate it away to get rid of their debt before introducing a new currency if the bank you're trading with didn't go bust already along with your gains. One can keep dreaming. Given that the top is reached, this is the new era of semi-state-owned corporations where the stock market is a tool to induce fear and unpopular reforms. Probably why Trump is trying to kill it a bit so he can crown himself emperor for life. Even if there is a crash, the dow won't get past 22000, at most 18000. Too much QE and early birds below. It'd take a global cataclysm for that to happen. Luckily our economy is working towards that. Just waiting for Trump to deliver the usual disappointment tomorrow. He just loves being a dick.
Tell me about it, Trump's the reason I took my money out of the market. Every time that fucker tweeted some bullshit about China, my options and actual stock took a beating. Then, me being a dumbass, buys puts and it goes up later
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The infamous PPT (plunge protection team). Supposedly created after the crash of 1987 with an executive order from the president.
Do the people here think its real? And if so,how do they see this being excuted in practice. The fed starts buying futures when the market drops to much?
The correlation between money supply and indices is not 100% and its a long time correlation giving a direction. You can not really notice it from week to week (though sometimes you can).
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It isn't a myth, it's a fact. After Livermore and Soros shenanigans and whatnot they decided they had enough of rich speculants being able to thrash entire economies. After buying gold for decades, they can just dump it to buy stocks when needed and buy it back later. All managed by algos.You can be sure that the trading day is over when you see plunge protection going in. Fun thing is, I believe they both work ways on an index. So they'll also stop the price from exploding too quickly.
Then just trade what you see once the sideways movement ebbs off.
That's why brokers love to sell index contracts over single stocks that cost more fees, most of the time they don't move too much, so they are relatively safe and good for practicing and people don't make massive gains from them.
If a massive sell order comes in like during 10/01 and 10/02, plunge protection turns it into a controlled implosion and you get time to close positions if your market maker doesn't shit on you and exempts indices from orders like they did on me twice for "technical problems".
Not a bad thing if you are on the wrong side of the bet.
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eur usd explodes by 0.50% today but everyone is buying into trade deal hope with deteriorating fundamentals.
i feel a surprise cooking here. possibly a eurozone member default, or america is devaluing the dollar actively while gold doesnt rise which implies manipulation
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There's two open gaps in the DAX around 11993.
Today afternoon or monday I guess, these gaps will be closed in a spectacular crash. Meanwhile the index gets pushed up like there is no tomorrow for some lemming catching.
Just waiting for the Shark fin signal before placing a short. That'd be a sharp rise, a slight fall, some sideways movement, and then boom. Stops out short sellers raising the price further and increases the profits of the big fish selling.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/KUoWG5K.png)
The fed still didn't publish last weeks balance sheet update...
Massive gold sales going on.
The Dow Jones is attempting to close a downwards gap from the 1st of October, upon which it will be free to fall.
Put order at 27030
The sharkfin is emerging.
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The sharkfin patern,that one is new to me. There is also the megaphone,the batman and what not.
It is true that before a drop you often see one short and final push up,resulting in the "sharkfin". But a sharkfin doesn't always lead to lower prices.
Looking back after it has dropped (or risen) its easy to identify such patterns and come with a conclusion,but its less easy doing it at the moment such a patern is being formed. The start of the fin can also be seen as a breakout for example.
Once you have the patern "confirmed" the entry isn't all that attractive anymore and it could go up just as easily as it could drop further like in the chart above.
I don't think there is any big firm in the world that trades based on patterns.
The algos they look at orderflow and price action,trades are opened and closed within seconds. If you want to become a profitable trader that's where you should look I think. It can be done by some people but its very difficult,the algos are smart and you are competing directly with them.
With patterns I think that in general the longer the timeframe,the more reliable a patern becomes.(though personally I don't put much value in any patern) Short time frame patterns I think are very unreliable,sometimes forced by algos to fool traders.
The most reliable patern I know is the "flash crash",a very fast drop followed by a very fast recovery. In the weeks/months after such an event the market will very often search for the low in the flash crash again (which will then often also be the turn around point). Look for example at the infamous flash crash of 2010.
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This isn't just any trading day. The fed didn't manage to fix the repo crisis and the demand for money is increasding again. This is systemic. Even bloomberg started writing (about fucking time) about the fed balance looking oddly like the one during 2008. I'm playing this game with very little money because these options will implode in my face anyway if this snowballs too quickly. But I bought a bunch of mining stocks and will buy again if they take a dive.
This is likely a debt crisis emerging from all the global QE programs. Starting yesterday, Greece's debt became the debt of their creditors. And I didn't even look at who Japans creditors are.
Gold will crash and then come back with a bang.
Always with the caveat that it's my slightly paranoid personality talking.
Short german bonds, short deutsche börse, short all indices. Once the DJ fills that gap it might become quite the show.
Trump is pushing optimism. Believe Trump if you want to see your money evaporate. He's trying to help that gap getting closed imo cause there's a lot of resistance.
Here's an indicator for a massive plunge for you, there have been more gaps in the past that still aren't closed, but it is an unwritten rule that they must be closed. Not every gap closes in the short term either, but it's usually a good indication of how you have to trade short to mid-term :
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/Xb5oegd.jpg)
Shark fin spotted at 17:50 cest. Expect a jump up first. Nope, Trend reversed shortly before the gap closure so it's not today.
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The market has felt pretty weird the last couple of weeks. It's moving based mostly on emotion these days, I think. Perhaps a sign of things to come, but I have no idea what will happen if anything.
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EPT
