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Vivax
22300 Posts
When US opens in 45 minutes it's going to be a helluva show Update: There's a major player dumping gold at 1495 to stabilize the indices. But who knows how much powder it has left. Most of all I'd like to know who is buying it up. But turns out they can't stop it from rising further. Tesla is on the brink at 240 where it has usually rebounded up violently. 17:11 the dam is starting to crack | ||
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hunts
United States2113 Posts
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Vivax
22300 Posts
On October 03 2019 00:27 hunts wrote: I just saw this as well. Do you know why this is happening? I'm not at all familiar with DAX and haven't heard of it until looking it up after reading your post. Pretty sure it's just some really REALLY rich dudes/corporations taking profits on a large scale for reasons we will never know about or know too late about. The world won't go under unless who's in charge of these proceedings wants it. If you want to trade, you need to try to anticipate what they are doing and follow the trend they give. If you miss the timing you can count on the trend persisting for a while. The hard part is that stuff like today and perhaps rest of the week happens maybe every few months or so. That's why daytrading is mostly a useless time sink. There just isn't enough movement in the markets to make big gains and one's better off buying and holding dips when the big trend reverses. If I had to guess what the cause was, is to apply pressure to China while they have holidays before the talks (premeditated move scenario) or the lending problems among US banks, but the Fed is supposedly fixing that with the money print. Like, if this was actually the first wave of another global financial crisis, then you can be sure that there's already an agenda in place to reshape society when the people are starved out enough to ask for reforms. I hope not. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
I know that it is frowned upon (to say the least) to post links without any comments but in this case I will do it anyway. I do accept my post will be removed and that I might get a temp ban for this. Bridgewaters vieuw and speculation. https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/threat-limit-capital-flows-china-pending-impeachment-conflict-dalio/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-time-look-more-carefully-monetary-policy-3-mp3-modern-ray-dalio/ Both are a very interesting read,personally I don't fully share the vision laid out here but I do partially. The information and speculation is not suited for trading,but it can have an impact on investing. There is a big difference between trading and investing and reading the thread I wonder if everyone realizes this. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17476 Posts
After several years of very strong economic expansion "Black Monday" occurred on October 19, 1987. A recession hit in 1990. The DOW fell 500 points and lost 22.6% of its value. | ||
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Vivax
22300 Posts
News will sell it as recovery before the next plunge. Probably. As for where these plunges will end, it will largely depend on China negotiations and whether the US banks with lending problems are okay. I can't really picture a financial system without banks who are the most exposed to such risks. I'd be careful with historical comparisons. 2008 was pictured as some kind of apocalypse once media started writing about it while the smart guys bought up all the equity the scaredy investors threw away for a ridiculously low price. In the long term it was just a small dent. In the 1930s there were no mechanisms in place to stop massive plunges from happening. Nowadays there are plenty: Quantitative easing, gold selling, exempting stocks and even indices from trade, Trump tweets, wars in the middle east to name a few. | ||
KwarK
United States43934 Posts
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Vivax
22300 Posts
On October 03 2019 04:39 KwarK wrote: 2008 was going to be apocalyptic until the government stepped in to stop the run on cash. Payrolls were about to start going missing as leveraged cash got called. It’s an example of “they took steps to limit the damage so it can’t have been that bad” logic. As they will keep doing until the effect wanes. Best case scenario it will just be another dent. Worst case, we're getting a monetary reform. But it's more likely that negative interest rates on accounts will come first and tangible cash is outlawed along with gold. Worst² case scenario are government defaults when the demand for bonds collapses somewhere. Sometimes a single country is enough. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that one of the possible reasons for the recent selloff is that the auction for Japanese 10Y-T-bills plunged recently, but for now it's hard to tell if it's just temporary. Trading with puts and calls now also exposes one to a considerable counterparty risk, but that's what you hedge for with gold and withdrawn cash. 22:06 Damn the plunges already resumed. Didn't take long for the shorts to get covered. That's actually very very worrying. Here's a recent article from ZH, obviously a ton of articles there are semi-advertising garbo but it has its pearls. /markets/here-megabank-behind-septembers-repo-shock 22:13 looking forward to the daily treasury rates If the Chinese have figured out or think that this is a massive dick move against them, they will start dumping bonds I think. 23:35 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm Look at: Selected liabilities of the fed In 2008 when QE was launched, the correlation was positive, now it has inverted. Any economists around to predict the consequences? 23:52 According to the USTR office, the US will impose a total of $7.5 billion in retaliatory tariffs on EU imports starting October 18, with 10% tariffs on large commercial aircraft, and 25% on agricultural and other industrial goods. U.S. WILL IMPOSE TARIFFS ON $7.5 BILLION OF EUROPEAN UNION IMPORTS BEGINNING OCT. 18, USTR SAYS U.S. WILL IMPOSE 10% TARIFFS ON LARGE COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT AND 25% TARIFFS ON OTHER AGRICULTURAL AND INDUSTRIAL GOOD The USTR also noted that its would publish the full list of items subject to tariffs over the next day. 10/3 10:50 Strong upward pressure on gold price, indices rather dull. News are saying that the tariffs are letting investors feel reassured today. Very credible /s 11:12 Oil production has gone down a lot to an 8-year-low and US oil reserves have gone down by roughly 6 M barrels last week. I expect the correlation between oil and indices to reverse soon and bought a bit of oil futures as speculative bet. If this is going to be like the last big shock, oil prices climbing to 100 isn't utopic. 11:53 Considering past plunges, I'd give the magniutde of the next wave at least a factor of 1.5 that of the last. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
Personally I think the market will hold till at least the elections next year and probably 2-3 years more but anything could happen. Its a rigged market,central banks have such enormous impact on the market and they are difficult to predict. They could do anything. Print helicopter money (which I think is extremely unlikely in any situation) and we could go much higher. Or thighten monetary policy (which i think is also unlikely but more likely then helicopter money) and we could end up below 20k. Or they could simply continue as they are and then the markets will continue the way they did past few years,very slowly and with ups and downs itching higher. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4410 Posts
On October 03 2019 19:11 pmh wrote: Tbh I think the plunge is already close to being over. I don't think we will get a repeat of last year. Personally I think the market will hold till at least the elections next year and probably 2-3 years more but anything could happen. Its a rigged market,central banks have such enormous impact on the market and they are difficult to predict. They could do anything. Print helicopter money (which I think is extremely unlikely in any situation) and we could go much higher. Or thighten monetary policy (which i think is also unlikely but more likely then helicopter money) and we could end up below 20k. Or they could simply continue as they are and then the markets will continue the way they did past few years,very slowly and with ups and downs itching higher. They will do helicopter money.Wide scale tax cuts are a form of helicopter money. Govt gives you $500 tax cut/Govt gives you $500 cheque in mail.What is the difference? Tax cuts to stimulate the economy has Trump written all over it, he’s done it already in fact at great cost to the budget. | ||
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Vivax
22300 Posts
Atm it's mostly algo trading buying back shorted stocks in the late hours. And moving gold back towards 1.5k. Went long at 1.51 because why not. It's mostly a stable price for now. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6272 Posts
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Vivax
22300 Posts
On October 03 2019 23:16 RvB wrote: What does helicopter money to do with gold? We have a fiat currency. Helicopter money is simply the central bank increasing the money supply and giving it directly to people. Gold doesn't factor into this. If you observe such huge movements you will see that gold is almost directly inversely correlated to index movements. Go full short: Long gold and short index. Hedge: Long index and long gold. Always respect upper resistances if there is no QE announced. If QE is announced, buy everything before the banks do. It's almost a given that someone has the gold price firmly in their hands and with it, the entire market, as I saw today with the index flash crash and gold flash explosion. After it happened I lost one third of the gains betting on another movement before closing positions. Which means the big guys decided "save your greed for another day". And as it turns out, today was mostly a sideways show. What does helicopter money have to do with gold? Helicopter money means more spending, more spending means a weaker currency, a weaker currency (just dollar actually) means higher gold price. When gold rises, the dollar sinks with it. There's probably oil factored in somewhere. I don't think the barbarous metal is as worthless as Buffet said when central banks hoard millions of tons of it. And the fact you can trade with contracts on it hides the true price as they make it look like the supply is higher. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6272 Posts
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Vivax
22300 Posts
On October 04 2019 03:07 RvB wrote: Obviously an increase in the money supply which is larger than the increase in productivity means higher inflation and a higher gold price. What your initial post implied (before you edited it) though is that helicopter money was somehow impossible due to gold being sold. I asked you why gold is in any way related to the money supply. Your second post does nothing to answer that question. I don't recall saying anything related to money supply. I recall saying that gold gets dumped to stabilize indices. Like, I don't even know what I'm supposed to do with money supply in trading. It's largely irrelevant for the greater part of the population as it's banks that hold most of it. | ||
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Vivax
22300 Posts
Nvm still figuring out what is going on from the sidelines, but jesus that volatility. Gold moved from 1515 to 1498 in 1 minute and is now contracting like crazy Indices made a leg up and are now sinking, the opposite for gold. All because of US unemployment? I don't trust this. Rising indices and rising gold indicates bull bait. 16:29 The trend is reverting back down, this should be a hardcore fall if I'm not wrong Ok I was wrong, it's not today at least. 10/05/19 Unemployment hit an all-time-low. Check. Yield curve inverted for roughly 5 months. Check. https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2018/06/01/recession-signals-the-yield-curve-vs-unemployment-rate-troughs/?&utm_source=fred.stlouisfed.org&utm_medium=Referral&utm_term=related_resources&utm_content=&utm_campaign=es Sharp rise in Fed assets when the downturn hit to stop panic from spreading. US bank refinancing issues prior. Check. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm Corporate defaults rising. Check. Bank suddenly closes its doors to their customers in India after hiding true credit risk. Check. I am very very pessimistic for the two weeks to come. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/uSCogZY.png) Smart money pulling out of emerging markets bond and parking everything into Luxembourg. | ||
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Vivax
22300 Posts
I'm guessing at 16:00 someone will drop through the averages heavy handedly. But predicting the day is difficult, let alone the time. Bunch of Blackrock news coming in about actions regarding german immo companies that I can't really decipher. Followed by some dude saying he doesn't see a crisis coming in the german immo market. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://media1.tenor.com/images/2f6c66b18a2e1e8662c2894f61951d20/tenor.gif?itemid=3576836) Rofl the news just got binned before my eyes Retrospectively there are volatility spikes in gold but it goes up and down and barely moves from 1500. Could be a sign of last resort refinancing operations. Oil moving up rapidly, all currencies getting stronger (read:weaker) against the NOK | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4410 Posts
Following daily gold movements is IMO a waste of time, too heavily manipulated price can go anywhere. Just buy + hold and stress less. Reading your posts is legit stressful. | ||
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Vivax
22300 Posts
On October 07 2019 22:04 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: I just put 3k into an Aussie gold miner, Northern Star. Following daily gold movements is IMO a waste of time, too heavily manipulated price can go anywhere. Just buy + hold and stress less. Reading your posts is legit stressful. I'd advise you to read this article first: https://www.goldrepublic.com/news/why-gold-prices-fell-in-2008 All prices are threatened when a default domino begins. Shortly afterwards is the time to buy and hold. Update because news from ZH: /health/dollar-shortage-returns-repo-usage-rises-highest-week lol @ health tag 15:45: watch the nvidia stocks at 16:00 (basically at 187 there's a line it can't cross and it tends to precede plunges, plus it opened with an upwards gap which rarely stays open) Trading interface getting laggy :o Dull day coming to an end. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
On October 04 2019 03:17 Vivax wrote: I don't recall saying anything related to money supply. I recall saying that gold gets dumped to stabilize indices. Like, I don't even know what I'm supposed to do with money supply in trading. It's largely irrelevant for the greater part of the population as it's banks that hold most of it. Well it doesn't have an impact on daytrading I guess (which is a -ev activity for the vast majority of traders. He who trades fastest trades the best and that are the HFT firms with their data cables to the stock exchange). But money supply (m1,m2 etc) have a huge impact on indices and currencys mid-long term. There is almost a 100% correlation,the more money in circulation the higher the indices will go. It also effects volatility,like when fed was buying 80b worth of bonds every month the volatility was extremely low. When usa started QE first the dollar went to 1,40 dollar/euro. Only when Europe started their QE to make it even the dollar gained strength to go back to now 1.10 dollar/euro. If you could predict monetary policy then currencys are the way to go I think. | ||
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