EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 147
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Billyboy
1724 Posts
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria845 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17743 Posts
On April 18 2025 00:38 Billyboy wrote: Google is ruled a monopoly, another blow to the market, but I think a win for the people and long term perhaps the market. Let's just hope for more anti-trust movements. Meta is in some deep trouble now because of Instagram acquisition and now this surfaced... | ||
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KT_Elwood
Germany1151 Posts
DO IT. | ||
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Billyboy
1724 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11839 Posts
On April 24 2025 03:04 Billyboy wrote: Day trading must be wild these days. We are in a cycle where Trump says dumb shit and the markets fall, then he says he is for real doing the dumb shit and won't back down and the markets fall, then he backs down on the terrible policy and the markets go up. Rinse and repeat. Currently were in the Trump backing down phase so everyone should probably sell. The sad thing is that in this cycle, good companies get killed. For example, i am an enjoyer of board games. Basically the best cooperative board game by far is Spirit Island. That game was a thriving business that put out expansions regularly. Those expansions got bought by people who love the game. Everyone involved was happy. Then tariffs come along, and the company just dies because it obviously cannot afford to randomly pay 150% (or whatever the current absurdity is) on transferring their already produced goods to the US. So now the company is dead. No more expansions, no second edition or big box coming, ever. And that is true even for me in europe, who couldn't have any less to deal with the insanity in the US. Does anyone profit? No. Will any manufacturing be moved to the US? No. Just a good game that stops existing, and good people who made this game out of a job. | ||
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Billyboy
1724 Posts
On April 24 2025 03:22 Simberto wrote: The sad thing is that in this cycle, good companies get killed. For example, i am an enjoyer of board games. Basically the best cooperative board game by far is Spirit Island. That game was a thriving business that put out expansions regularly. Those expansions got bought by people who love the game. Everyone involved was happy. Then tariffs come along, and the company just dies because it obviously cannot afford to randomly pay 150% (or whatever the current absurdity is) on transferring their already produced goods to the US. So now the company is dead. No more expansions, no second edition or big box coming, ever. And that is true even for me in europe, who couldn't have any less to deal with the insanity in the US. Does anyone profit? No. Will any manufacturing be moved to the US? No. Just a good game that stops existing, and good people who made this game out of a job. There will be tons of stories like this sadly. It is just awful policy. Lots of American manufacturing is even suffering because it is not like they can get all their parts and raw material from within the US. Heck they are Tariffing gas which will raise basically all prices. It is objectively terrible policy, not Tariff's, targeted ones could have had some positive impacts perhaps, and you could hold on to them for more than a few days. But non thinking blanket Tariffs on everything are simply stupid and everyone on both sides of the isle that is no a boot licking or a full fledged cult member is saying as much. Talking firing the fed was equally as dumb and self destructive. What's next, hard to predict specifically, but that it is really dumb seems extremely likely. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23957 Posts
On April 24 2025 03:22 Simberto wrote: Much like the private equity firms that benefit from destroying otherwise viable businesses, there are certainly people profiting from the destruction of smaller businesses that can't survive this turbulence. If nothing else, it's the larger businesses that survive and get the smaller businesses' market share/disposable income the now defunct businesses can no longer capture. The sad thing is that in this cycle, good companies get killed. For example, i am an enjoyer of board games. Basically the best cooperative board game by far is Spirit Island. That game was a thriving business that put out expansions regularly. Those expansions got bought by people who love the game. Everyone involved was happy. Then tariffs come along, and the company just dies because it obviously cannot afford to randomly pay 150% (or whatever the current absurdity is) on transferring their already produced goods to the US. So now the company is dead. No more expansions, no second edition or big box coming, ever. And that is true even for me in europe, who couldn't have any less to deal with the insanity in the US. Does anyone profit? No. Will any manufacturing be moved to the US? No. Just a good game that stops existing, and good people who made this game out of a job. | ||
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Hat Trick of Today
201 Posts
On April 24 2025 03:39 GreenHorizons wrote: Much like the private equity firms that benefit from destroying otherwise viable businesses, there are certainly people profiting from the destruction of smaller businesses that can't survive this turbulence. If nothing else, it's the larger businesses that survive and get the smaller businesses' market share/disposable income the now defunct businesses can no longer capture. Yes, this is the reason why Costco's shares didn't tank as much as everyone else's in the sector when the original tariffs hit. If you have strong negotiating power as a retailer, you can squeeze your suppliers and even get them to eat the tariff fees if you are powerful enough. Speaking of tariffs and smaller businesses like board game companies getting murdered by the tariffs, Gamers Nexus just released a 3 hour video regarding this very issue with a focus on the desktop computer space. At around 23 minutes, he interviews Hyte (who sell computers cases and other computer related components) who actually open their accounting to show just how much tariffs hit their profit margin. It goes from a profit margin of 5% all the way down to -104% profit margin to tl;dr just how much the tariffs hit the affordability of even the most basic items. If you want to know how much this impacts something like their Q80 (a fancy high end integrated CPU watercooler with a screen), this screenshot from their video tells you the amount of tariff charge is placed on it. That's not including retailer cuts and other associated fees, just the tariff fees, and you tell me why China is just playing the waiting game. ![[image loading]](https://images2.imgbox.com/10/49/UP0vcqtp_o.png) | ||
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decafchicken
United States20161 Posts
On April 24 2025 03:04 Billyboy wrote: Day trading must be wild these days. We are in a cycle where Trump says dumb shit and the markets fall, then he says he is for real doing the dumb shit and won't back down and the markets fall, then he backs down on the terrible policy and the markets go up. Rinse and repeat. Currently were in the Trump backing down phase so everyone should probably sell. My buddy trades S&P futures for a derivates firm. Was rocky at first but they've been PRINTING money for the past couple weeks | ||
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Billyboy
1724 Posts
On April 24 2025 11:39 decafchicken wrote: My buddy trades S&P futures for a derivates firm. Was rocky at first but they've been PRINTING money for the past couple weeks It would be scary as hell, but if you nail it I bet there is almost unlimited money to be made. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4416 Posts
The US isn't China, you can see the logic in China (as a nation) putting their investments in specific things that helps keep them maintain a stranglehold on supply chains and manufacturing as a whole And if people remember in April 2020 China banned the export of masks, COVID tests, ventilators, surgical gowns etc.Not having all manufacturing based in China is a good thing, just a shame this change of heart didn't happen 30 years ago. | ||
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KT_Elwood
Germany1151 Posts
The secretary in charge - Jens Spahn - was eager to buy masks from china. He basicly made up a the Idea that Whoever is delivering masks will get paid. He asked the experts for a price/mask.. and then DOUBLED it via email, without telling anybody any reason. He also was against quality assurance processes - hence half of the masks didn't met the FFP2 standard (Their idea was to give them to jobless or poor people) Who showed up with truckloads of masks from dark sources? All the kids and spouses of politicians who got tipped off beforehand. Some bavarian politican's daugther made 50 million on shitty masks, and had the audacity to not even tax her income LOL. This was 2800 million euros wasted on masks you can't use because half of them weren't up to standards, and weeding them out would have been too costly. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium5160 Posts
On April 25 2025 15:22 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: And if people remember in April 2020 China banned the export of masks, COVID tests, ventilators, surgical gowns etc.Not having all manufacturing based in China is a good thing, just a shame this change of heart didn't happen 30 years ago. Why is that a good thing. If China is a reliable actor it really doesn't matter. 2 scenarios where it matters: manufacturing at home because carbon footprint, China is a potentially unreliable actor and will screw you over the first chance it gets to. How reliable have they been again in the last couple of decades with exporting goods? Don't forget, they want to get rid of their products as well: warehouses sitting full of items, production that can't add new products, shipping that's not happening.... that shit is costly. But maybe I have a too optimistic (i.e. naive) view of these things. In a sense they're too reliable even because they're flooding EU markets with cheaper alternatives and putting EU production out of business because they can't produce it for lower... unless you view that as a way to just fuck up infrastructure to destablize the economy etc. | ||
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KT_Elwood
Germany1151 Posts
Or is the "Liberal Fake news media" crying wolf again? | ||
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Razyda
967 Posts
On May 02 2025 01:15 Uldridge wrote: Why is that a good thing. If China is a reliable actor it really doesn't matter. 2 scenarios where it matters: manufacturing at home because carbon footprint, China is a potentially unreliable actor and will screw you over the first chance it gets to. How reliable have they been again in the last couple of decades with exporting goods? Don't forget, they want to get rid of their products as well: warehouses sitting full of items, production that can't add new products, shipping that's not happening.... that shit is costly. But maybe I have a too optimistic (i.e. naive) view of these things. In a sense they're too reliable even because they're flooding EU markets with cheaper alternatives and putting EU production out of business because they can't produce it for lower... unless you view that as a way to just fuck up infrastructure to destablize the economy etc. "2 scenarios where it matters: manufacturing at home because carbon footprint," If you care about carbon footprint what does it matter whether something is manufactured at home, or somewhere else? "In a sense they're too reliable even because they're flooding EU markets with cheaper alternatives and putting EU production out of business because they can't produce it for lower... unless you view that as a way to just fuck up infrastructure to destablize the economy etc." You basically saying here why tariffs may be usefull. | ||
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KT_Elwood
Germany1151 Posts
"We dropped emissions by 18% in our 5 year scope" ...well because 18% of production was since closed down or outsourced to china, with an jobloss for us and less regulations for production. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium5160 Posts
On May 22 2025 18:58 Razyda wrote: "2 scenarios where it matters: manufacturing at home because carbon footprint," If you care about carbon footprint what does it matter whether something is manufactured at home, or somewhere else? "In a sense they're too reliable even because they're flooding EU markets with cheaper alternatives and putting EU production out of business because they can't produce it for lower... unless you view that as a way to just fuck up infrastructure to destablize the economy etc." You basically saying here why tariffs may be usefull. About carbon footprint: in the EU at least you have to assess the source of your products. So this means that the entire transport aspect is also taken into account for your sustainability angle. The closer to home, the less impact on the environment, generally. This is also some form of protectionism, but in a different jacket. About tariffs. Yes, kinda. It depends what you value as a society. If you have manufacturers at home and they're getting completely dicked by manufactures in China, you have to make that call if you want to keep your production at home or not and find a way to measure how valuable that actually is. Sometimes it's better to let things die off. Sometimes, if actors become unreliable, you shouldn't accept their product and protect your own. Nuanced game. Not at all straightforward. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria845 Posts
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decafchicken
United States20161 Posts
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