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Billyboy
1724 Posts
Even Bill Akerman is talking about how bad the Tariffs are. I really can't imagine these lasting a month, maybe not even a week. I'm not will to bet that with my money in the markets mind you, Trump always surprises me with how dumb he can be. the conspiracy part of me thinks that he will just give a heads up to those he supports right before they he announces he has won and they are done. Guy can cause huge shifts in all the world markets anytime he chooses. | ||
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Jealous
10321 Posts
On April 08 2025 08:34 Billyboy wrote: The gamestop CEO who was super pro Trump last couple of tweets made me laugh. One was "I look forward to my 10000 dollar made in the USA Iphone" And "these Tariffs are turning me Dem" finishing with a pride flag. This coming from a guy who used to tweet things like "Trump has won 3 elections in a row now" and just the name Trump a whole bunch. Even Bill Akerman is talking about how bad the Tariffs are. I really can't imagine these lasting a month, maybe not even a week. I'm not will to bet that with my money in the markets mind you, Trump always surprises me with how dumb he can be. the conspiracy part of me thinks that he will just give a heads up to those he supports right before they he announces he has won and they are done. Guy can cause huge shifts in all the world markets anytime he chooses. So, how does one make money in the market on the basis of volatility? | ||
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Billyboy
1724 Posts
On April 08 2025 09:13 Jealous wrote: So, how does one make money in the market on the basis of volatility? For us commoners it is just gambling. But Trumps inner circle can sell before he announces and buy before he announces them going away. | ||
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Vivax
22324 Posts
On April 08 2025 09:13 Jealous wrote: So, how does one make money in the market on the basis of volatility? You can buy volatility-based derivatives. It‘s safer than shorting. Try googling VIX. Options aren‘t for noobs. That includes me. Buy stocks or buy volatility and you got speculation covered imo, with little risk. You risk being ripped off by the bank every single time when you use options. | ||
KwarK
United States43991 Posts
In a highly volatile market people want to buy out of the money options to hedge. If you think it’s less volatile than they believe then you can get paid to sell insurance in both directions simultaneously. Don’t do this though, you are not better at pricing risk than they are. | ||
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Jealous
10321 Posts
On April 08 2025 10:01 Vivax wrote: You can buy volatility-based derivatives. It‘s safer than shorting. Try googling VIX. Options aren‘t for noobs. That includes me. Buy stocks or buy volatility and you got speculation covered imo, with little risk. You risk being ripped off by the bank every single time when you use options. On April 08 2025 09:32 Billyboy wrote: For us commoners it is just gambling. But Trumps inner circle can sell before he announces and buy before he announces them going away. On April 08 2025 10:14 KwarK wrote: You sell out of the money covered calls and cash secured puts. If it goes up more than your strike price you leave cash on the table when your shares are liquidated at strike. When it goes down more than your put price you’re forced to buy over market. But when it stays flat, or at least flat within the boundaries you set, you get paid for doing nothing. In a highly volatile market people want to buy out of the money options to hedge. If you think it’s less volatile than they believe then you can get paid to sell insurance in both directions simultaneously. Don’t do this though, you are not better at pricing risk than they are. Thank you all. I am aware of VIX and that is kind of the idea of a gamble upon a gamble that I was thinking of, but wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything other. I cashed out about 2 months ago because I saw volatility on the horizon but didn't expect it to be that much. I figured with all this extra capital, I could do something like play VIX or currency exchanges, but it all seemed so toxic to me. Glad to know I was likely mostly on the right line of thinking. I guess I was looking for a VIX on a VIX if any of you knew it, a derivative of a derivative kinda, but it seems I'm not missing much. Cheers again 🍻 | ||
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Timebon3s
Norway764 Posts
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KwarK
United States43991 Posts
On April 08 2025 16:55 Timebon3s wrote: Couldn’t you also just put it in index funds? I mean if you cashed out before all this, you will do good money to put it into the s&p500 and just watch is steadily rise. That would just be investing, not gambling. | ||
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Timebon3s
Norway764 Posts
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Impervious
Canada4217 Posts
I personally can't be assed to do the gambling myself. I've had what feels like pretty good returns just throwing money into a diversified group of ~20 different high risk Canadian/American/Foreign equity managed funds. Yea, the management fees suck, but overall my average return over the last ~10 years has been something like 14% a year. And it's basically all hands-off other than a bit of research once in a while to add more money or rebalance the funding if needed. However, in January my girlfriend convinced me to pull my investments as she wanted to pull hers at the time. I don't think it's the right time to put the money back in the market though. I really feel like this is still going to get worse before it gets better. | ||
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Timebon3s
Norway764 Posts
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ZeromuS
Canada13407 Posts
And even if they could move it back the cost could well exceed what is viable when pricing, so what are they gonna do? The complete lack of care, and erratic nature, is extreme and that's why you can't just say "when you think its bad get in with a giant lump sum". This kind of market chaos is something that hasn't happened in a very very long time. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria845 Posts
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oBlade
United States6136 Posts
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Billyboy
1724 Posts
On April 10 2025 02:28 oBlade wrote: The NASDAQ just shot up 6% in 5 minutes, does anyone know...? what the fuck is happening? Trump just backed down and is pausing the tariffs for 90 days other than on China. Proving again he is unserious and only about his own attention. | ||
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ZeromuS
Canada13407 Posts
It's so stupid. This is so stupid. Auto tariffs? Still there Aluminum and steel? Still there. Global 10% baseline? Still there. China? Major import source? Even bigger now. This is just vibes trading now, to see numbers go up this high lol | ||
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Impervious
Canada4217 Posts
I actually understand the idea of having tariffs, and to an extent agree with it. A small tariff would help retain domestic production, and when reciprocal, should not seriously interfere with exports of good quality products that your domestic industry produces an excess of that is difficult to produce elsewhere. It would ultimately reduce the amount of goods that get shipped around, which would be beneficial from an environmental point of view too. But anything above ~10% just seems to be punitive in nature. I'm getting really sick of this shit, and I hope Canada continues to move our trade away from the USA. We've already started. | ||
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ZeromuS
Canada13407 Posts
On April 10 2025 03:45 Impervious wrote: Nobody seems to know wtf is going on. I don't know how many hours I've wasted at work sorting out who to buy stuff from for a project in the USA that I'm working on over the last few weeks, and this just keeps making it more confusing. This is wasting an insane amount of time for so many people, on both sides of the border, as I know the company I'm working with in the USA is also wasting time sorting this shit out too. We never know how much tariffs will be charged when a shipment arrives, as it's been changing sometimes daily. This is so unbelievably stupid. I actually understand the idea of having tariffs, and to an extent agree with it. A small tariff would help retain domestic production, and when reciprocal, should not seriously interfere with exports of good quality products that your domestic industry produces an excess of that is difficult to produce elsewhere. It would ultimately reduce the amount of goods that get shipped around, which would be beneficial from an environmental point of view too. But anything above ~10% just seems to be punitive in nature. I'm getting really sick of this shit, and I hope Canada continues to move our trade away from the USA. We've already started. At some point, it's so hard to plan, you just stop planning. You just decide "fuck it, keep the lights on, no expansion, just keep going" and that's bad. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria845 Posts
I guess people who sold at loss to "cut their losses" are furious now. | ||
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Impervious
Canada4217 Posts
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