EPTOn January 02 2020 22:53 Vivax wrote:
Gold ramping up like crazy before US opens
Smells like we're in for something
Gold ramping up like crazy before US opens
Smells like we're in for something
Any Dax position?
Trading/Investing Thread - Page 9
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
Any Dax position? | ||
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
if you want to reduce volatility then get bonds | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
Anyone got a prediction? Mine would be 34.000 if I had to name a single number. "Don't really see the benefits for the US of going for a crack-up boom." Why not,isnt that what always happens? | ||
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Vivax
22410 Posts
Logic behind the trade: Day starts with a sell-off, ECB jumps in to stabilize, so I go short Eur, when US opens I go long Eur because the Fed takes over and the trend in the currencies reverses. Might be tinfoil but worked today :> Gold has begun to decouple. | ||
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Deleted User 3420
24492 Posts
I've bought a few starter books to read. Trading in the Zone, Stock Market Wizards, and What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars. Anyone read any of these? Anyways, I'll probably come here with a lot of questions. I think I would like to trade commodities and currencies (is currency considered a commodity in the context of trading?) Anyways, I am wondering what are good options for inter-day trading (time frames of hours to a day or 2)? Like, in terms of online platforms. Also, how much starting money do I need and what kind of costs/fees should I expect? Thank you for any help. | ||
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
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Vivax
22410 Posts
On January 04 2020 03:43 travis wrote: I think I am going to try to get into trading. I realize it's probably very difficult to do well if you are trading time frames shorter than say, months - but I have a lot of professional experience with risked based games so I think it gives me a good starting point. I've bought a few starter books to read. Trading in the Zone, Stock Market Wizards, and What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars. Anyone read any of these? Anyways, I'll probably come here with a lot of questions. I think I would like to trade commodities and currencies (is currency considered a commodity in the context of trading?) Anyways, I am wondering what are good options for inter-day trading (time frames of hours to a day or 2)? Like, in terms of online platforms. Also, how much starting money do I need and what kind of costs/fees should I expect? Thank you for any help. Be sure to read on worst possible case scenarios (Frankencrash must've busted a bunch of margin accs) to not fall off a cliff and don't go in expecting a "free market". 90% for sane traders is buying something in a dip, waiting then selling it before a major move down finishes, rinse repeat. Short selling nowadays only gives you minuscule time frames compared to being long to take profits since *something* stops prices from falling too steeply, however that makes reversals easier to spot. It's also an exceptionally risky time to get into it. We're in the later stages of a bubble and you're better off buying physical stuff (that helps during inflation) or pretend you're using money you don't want. Your "main opponents" are essentially hedge fund algos and CBs, one of them is almost an AI and the other has a money printer. If you're still feeling lucky, I'd say 10k are a minimum for a margin account. If unleveraged, anything goes and you can just buy US stonks with high short interest for easy money when the Fed printer is running. Best strat in the last months was definitely to just pile into US stock calls and pray to the fed before US open. Also, the worst earning companies had their stock prices pimped up the most. So don't bother with fundamentals, they have been made irrelevant. On January 04 2020 04:16 CorsairHero wrote: read The Intelligent Investor Not a bad book, but the strategies are a bit dated. Bonds aren't really a safe haven nowadays. Add: For time frames as daytrader, you have German stock market open and US stock market open. 2-3 hours tops of actual activity each. If you're in for the long term game, you just buy FAANG in a dip or recession with whatever you can spare (but not leveraged) and go afk for a few years. | ||
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
still in march 20 fb calls and march and ju spy calls | ||
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Vivax
22410 Posts
A trader then calculated what it would mean: Currently, if one investment gives you 100k gains and the other 80k losses, you have 20k net gains, of which you pay 1/4th in taxes =5k. Under the new law, the gains after deducted losses would amount to 90k, of which you have to pay 22,5k in taxes after you actually gained 20k. That would mean that when you make money from investing, you have to pay your own money to the government when the losses from another investment surpass 10k. | ||
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redlightdistrict
382 Posts
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endy
Switzerland8970 Posts
On January 04 2020 03:43 travis wrote: I've bought a few starter books to read. Trading in the Zone, Stock Market Wizards, and What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars. Anyone read any of these? Trading in the zone is a must. Then learn technical analysis, knowing how to read charts properly is invaluable. | ||
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Vivax
22410 Posts
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
On January 04 2020 03:43 travis wrote: I think I am going to try to get into trading. I realize it's probably very difficult to do well if you are trading time frames shorter than say, months, - but I have a lot of professional experience with risk based games so I think it gives me a good starting point. I've bought a few starter books to read. Trading in the Zone, Stock Market Wizards, and What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars. Anyone read any of these? Anyways, I'll probably come here with a lot of questions. I think I would like to trade commodities and currencies (is currency considered a commodity in the context of trading?) Anyways, I am wondering what are good options for inter-day trading (time frames of hours to a day or 2)? Like, in terms of online platforms. Also, how much starting money do I need and what kind of costs/fees should I expect? Thank you for any help. I havent read Trading in the Zone, but the person who introduced me to technical trading - the closest thing I had to a mentor - has read it 5 times and swears by it. He was an ex-floor trader at the NYSE and market maker at CME btw. So I will say it's worthwhile. However, that book doesn't teach actual technical analysis. And it sounds like you want to trade technicals. There is no right way to trade. The only thing that matters is that you preserve capital and are consistently profitable. Those are your priorities, in that order. Wyckoff methods and Elliot Wave (neely, specifically) are my bread and butter. I incorporate other methods of TA as well, as I've studied so much so why not? Commodities are not the same as fiat currencies. Commodities are things like gold, silver, and oil. Currencies are fiat currencies traded on foreign exchange markets. Bitcoin is called a cryptocurrency but is nothing like forex in a market structure sense. Regarding your time frame questions - there is no right or wrong answer. You can trade any timeframe that works for you. Even if I'm scalping or day trading I may take daily, weekly, and monthly charts into consideration, for example. Some people just trade the 15 min - 4 hr chart to day trade. Trading methods are vast and varied. I trade stock options on ETrade and bitcoin on BitMEX. I also have an OANDA account where I can trade fiat currencies but I hate that market so I barely use it lol. You cannot really day trade stocks or any of their derivatives with less than 25,000 dollars if you are trading from the U.S. - you would be limited to 3 day trades per 5 days. The U.S. has stupid pattern day trading rules. Start with a stack you are okay with losing. Trading is very difficult and you will likely blow account(s) before becoming consistently profitable. The fees on all the platforms are negligible unless youre messing with stocks or their derivatives, in which case you may want to choose a brokerage based on the fee setups. ETrade, as well as TDA i believe, went zero fees for trading stocks (but not their derivatives). Robinhood has zero fees on everything but is basic for a serious trader. | ||
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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
On January 04 2020 05:14 Vivax wrote: It's also an exceptionally risky time to get into it. We're in the later stages of a bubble and you're better off buying physical stuff (that helps during inflation) or pretend you're using money you don't want. Your "main opponents" are essentially hedge fund algos and CBs, one of them is almost an AI and the other has a money printer. If you're still feeling lucky, I'd say 10k are a minimum for a margin account. If unleveraged, anything goes and you can just buy US stonks with high short interest for easy money when the Fed printer is running. Best strat in the last months was definitely to just pile into US stock calls and pray to the fed before US open. Also, the worst earning companies had their stock prices pimped up the most. So don't bother with fundamentals, they have been made irrelevant. As much as I am with you regarding the bubble/market distortion going on, I have to say that it does not mean that one should be expecting a collapse anytime soon. Ignoring everything else even CB shenanigans, the technical trader can always ride the coattails of the big boys. All that is necessary is to properly assess the volume. Volume is the one thing Big Money including their algos can never hide. And that is the key, at least to a subscriber of Wyckoff methodology like myself. The technicals do not suggest a major collapse any time soon. At worst there will be a nasty liquidity break here and there, but nothing suggests reversal in the U.S. markets which are what I chart and trade Never underestimate "their" ability to keep the ponzi going for much longer. The macro charts of the major US indices are bullish af imo. Perhaps this correlates with teh US being the last bastion so to speak - as other markets/economies crumble wealth will transfer to the US to delay the crumbling of the US market and economy not financial advice lol | ||
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Vivax
22410 Posts
On January 13 2020 13:01 BerserkSword wrote: As much as I am with you regarding the bubble/market distortion going on, I have to say that it does not mean that one should be expecting a collapse anytime soon. Ignoring everything else even CB shenanigans, the technical trader can always ride the coattails of the big boys. All that is necessary is to properly assess the volume. Volume is the one thing Big Money including their algos can never hide. And that is the key, at least to a subscriber of Wyckoff methodology like myself. The technicals do not suggest a major collapse any time soon. At worst there will be a nasty liquidity break here and there, but nothing suggests reversal in the U.S. markets which are what I chart and trade Never underestimate "their" ability to keep the ponzi going for much longer. The macro charts of the major US indices are bullish af imo. Perhaps this correlates with teh US being the last bastion so to speak - as other markets/economies crumble wealth will transfer to the US to delay the crumbling of the US market and economy not financial advice lol WTI and Eur/USD looking mighty suspicious while stocks barely move. | ||
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Trainrunnef
United States601 Posts
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
On January 14 2020 04:56 Trainrunnef wrote: My one and only piece of advice is to develop a set of rules that accounts for how you trade, and do your absolute best to stick to it. or just keep buying vtwax with dividend reinvested people suck at investing even with index products out there ![[image loading]](http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2014/04/Picture11.png) | ||
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Trainrunnef
United States601 Posts
On January 14 2020 05:16 CorsairHero wrote: or just keep buying vtwax with dividend reinvested people suck at investing even with index products out there if thats your rule then rock on, but some people have higher goals than 8.5% per annum. tough as that may be to achieve. | ||
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Vivax
22410 Posts
Here's chart from the twitter of a guy who tracks short interest (ihor dusaniwsky <3): + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOP_oIGWoAAaZJA?format=jpg&name=medium) What they did to Tesla short sellers you can see here: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOP_NP-XkAA0U5Z?format=jpg&name=medium) And now Bynd seems to be a new target. And when or if the fed pulls the repo plug, you can probably figure out where these companies are going. I'm just trading overnight gaps and gold until the distortion stops. Nvm then saw the news that they are discussing to fund hedge funds directly, so basically there's not a chance in hell we ever see a normal market again. Time to stop trading I guess. | ||
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Vivax
22410 Posts
Ding ding ding battery producers getting hammered, who needs a shitton of batteries again? + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOVMTw_XkAAVhrv.jpg:large) Oh oh, apparently stock loan rates are especially high today. Wouldn't short this, still. Wouldn't buy it either. I think I'll just call vola | ||
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