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JPM said current CB policy is "fueling a sovereign debt bubble". You can count on that one showing up if this market crashes, no, even dips under October lows.
The 01/31 drop looks particularly dangerous.
Only rate cuts with increasing frequency can keep this shitshow of a market going. When you want to put selling out of fashion, you gotta expect buyers at exorbitantly high levels. When there aren't, you just keep handing out cheap credit, or don't and face the consequences of previous credit orgies.
The most interesting development is the dollar. Trump created an artificially high demand for dollars on a global scale, and the price of crude doesn't like it. There's a middle ground here for how much crude can suffer without dragging along the energy sector.
Imo the problem here is that this dollar bubble is contained and parked in equities, you'll see inflation and a massive reversal in the dollars strength if equities correct. Possibly the collapse Vladi was talking about.
Only country who's a net oil exporter with a sovereign currency that doesn't coordinate with US like EUR and JPY do and without a US yoke on oil exports is Norway, so the trade of the decade might actually be USDNOK when the tide turns.
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I dont know if crash will come but the odds look better then they have for a very long time.
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entered spy may 350 spy calls
and june 20 $13 USO calls
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I'm putting all my designated gambling money into WDI, the most shorted German stock. Not in derivatives on it and not leveraged. Leverage is dangerous when going long bubbles, derivatives are dangerous when the currency is at risk.
Betting on a short squeeze. If € gets pulverized, I can sit it out and sell them back in a new currency, unlike derivatives.
They also have pretty insane revenue compared to other squeezed companies that were shorted for a good reason.
On February 11 2020 06:52 pmh wrote:
I dont know if crash will come but the odds look better then they have for a very long time.
10. GO LONG WHEN STOCKS REACH A NEW HIGH. SELL SHORT WHEN THEY REACH A NEW LOW”
17. “NEVER SELL A STOCK BECAUSE IT SEEMS HIGH-PRICED”
-Jesse Livermore
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On February 11 2020 16:38 Vivax wrote:I'm putting all my designated gambling money into WDI, the most shorted German stock. Not in derivatives on it and not leveraged. Leverage is dangerous when going long bubbles, derivatives are dangerous when the currency is at risk. Betting on a short squeeze. If € gets pulverized, I can sit it out and sell them back in a new currency, unlike derivatives. They also have pretty insane revenue compared to other squeezed companies that were shorted for a good reason. Show nested quote +On February 11 2020 06:52 pmh wrote:
I dont know if crash will come but the odds look better then they have for a very long time.
10. GO LONG WHEN STOCKS REACH A NEW HIGH. SELL SHORT WHEN THEY REACH A NEW LOW” 17. “NEVER SELL A STOCK BECAUSE IT SEEMS HIGH-PRICED” -Jesse Livermore
I think our oil entry has arrived (hence my USO calls) or is close
not financial advice
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On February 11 2020 16:54 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2020 16:38 Vivax wrote:I'm putting all my designated gambling money into WDI, the most shorted German stock. Not in derivatives on it and not leveraged. Leverage is dangerous when going long bubbles, derivatives are dangerous when the currency is at risk. Betting on a short squeeze. If € gets pulverized, I can sit it out and sell them back in a new currency, unlike derivatives. They also have pretty insane revenue compared to other squeezed companies that were shorted for a good reason. On February 11 2020 06:52 pmh wrote:
I dont know if crash will come but the odds look better then they have for a very long time.
10. GO LONG WHEN STOCKS REACH A NEW HIGH. SELL SHORT WHEN THEY REACH A NEW LOW” 17. “NEVER SELL A STOCK BECAUSE IT SEEMS HIGH-PRICED” -Jesse Livermore I think our oil entry has arrived (hence my USO calls) or is close not financial advice
Looks a lot like it hit a bottom, but I don't think wall street has the grip on it as it used to since CH and RU started dedollarizing their oil supply.
Nevertheless, given the high amount of short interest on crude that's probably around in retail, I wouldn't be surprised if a sudden spike was fabricated.
Maybe I'll buy a bunch of shitcalls on it for science.
Rofl this twitter acc:
/terribletrader_
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Oil i dont know. Demand from china did drop 25% thus far which is seen as the cause for the recent drop.
Market is very irrational now.
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Do any of you guys trade using margin? I tried to learn as much as I could about it but after having it now added to my account I am confused as to how it works.
I was under the impression that if I had lets say $50,000 cash, and $25,000 margin in the account, I would be able to place trades using cash + an equal amount of the margin amount. So for example if I wanted to buy $10,000 of Apple I could use $5,000 cash, and then $5,000 margin.
However confusion with the online trading interface and a call to the broker they are telling me that the margin is available to use after I use all $50,000 of cash. So the margin is available to be borrowed only after my cash is fully converted to equities/bonds etc. This seems really wrong to me but he even put me on hold to get a trader and they confirmed the same thing.
Anyone with personal experience able to provide some insight? I am using CIBC Investor's Edge.
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On February 13 2020 00:51 cha0 wrote:
Do any of you guys trade using margin? I tried to learn as much as I could about it but after having it now added to my account I am confused as to how it works.
I was under the impression that if I had lets say $50,000 cash, and $25,000 margin in the account, I would be able to place trades using cash + an equal amount of the margin amount. So for example if I wanted to buy $10,000 of Apple I could use $5,000 cash, and then $5,000 margin.
However confusion with the online trading interface and a call to the broker they are telling me that the margin is available to use after I use all $50,000 of cash. So the margin is available to be borrowed only after my cash is fully converted to equities/bonds etc. This seems really wrong to me but he even put me on hold to get a trader and they confirmed the same thing.
Anyone with personal experience able to provide some insight? I am using CIBC Investor's Edge.
Please do yourself a favour and fool around with normal stocks before going into margin. Or fool around with options, unless you sell calls or puts you can't lose more than you put in.
You can end up in debt with a margin account.
Anyway. If you feel like you're up to it anyway.
Margin is the amount from your cash reserves that is "blocked" during a trade. The money used in the trade is a loan used to gain leverage, with your margin used as security from your broker.
So let's say you trade on fixed 10x leverage.
You buy 10k of Apple stock, you get 1k of margin blocked and 10k loaned out.
If you have 10k own cash in your account, you're now trading at 10% margin.
If Apple drops 50%, you lose 5k. You're now trading at 50% margin and most likely get margin called. The broker will ask you to put in more or he will close your position.
Now imagine the 50% drop if you were trading at 40% margin. You will actually end up owing money to your broker.
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Thanks for your reply Vivax, I've been trading normal stocks for a little over 3 years now, options for just past few months. I whole heartedly agree with your assessment that margin is a much more risky and potentially dangerous endeavor hence why I wanted to really fully understand how it works before using it.
Margin is the amount from your cash reserves that is "blocked" during a trade. The money used in the trade is a loan used to gain leverage, with your margin used as security from your broker.
So do you mean that whenever I place a trade now there is a loan being taken out regardless of how much cash I have in the account?
What I am confused about is how do you select your leverage amount? For example right now if I were to try and buy Apple stock, there is no indication of how much would be loaned out to me. I've posted a screenshot of what it looks like for me: https://imgur.com/4Koc9tf (whited out any personal details)
The way the manager and trader explained it over the phone was that no loan would be taken out until I had used all the cash reserve I have in the account, which seems really odd to me.
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On February 13 2020 02:18 cha0 wrote:Thanks for your reply Vivax, I've been trading normal stocks for a little over 3 years now, options for just past few months. I whole heartedly agree with your assessment that margin is a much more risky and potentially dangerous endeavor hence why I wanted to really fully understand how it works before using it. Show nested quote +Margin is the amount from your cash reserves that is "blocked" during a trade. The money used in the trade is a loan used to gain leverage, with your margin used as security from your broker. So do you mean that whenever I place a trade now there is a loan being taken out regardless of how much cash I have in the account? What I am confused about is how do you select your leverage amount? For example right now if I were to try and buy Apple stock, there is no indication of how much would be loaned out to me. I've posted a screenshot of what it looks like for me: https://imgur.com/4Koc9tf (whited out any personal details) The way the manager and trader explained it over the phone was that no loan would be taken out until I had used all the cash reserve I have in the account, which seems really odd to me.
The leverage varies depending on what you trade. Gold for example is rather safe in terms of volatility and allows you to get more leverage with less margin.
The leverage used is always a loan. Or at least it becomes one in the usual term when your losses exceed your cash reserves.
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So the margin is available to be borrowed only after my cash is fully converted to equities/bonds etc. This seems really wrong to me but he even put me on hold to get a trader and they confirmed the same thing.
Its cheaper for you to first use your own money. The interest you pay on "margin" is higher then the interest you get on your account balance.
It seems that there is some confusion,there is 2 types of "margin"
The margin you need on your account when you trade future,sell options,short stocks,buy leveraged products and the "margin" that you can lend from your broker with your equitys as collateral.
you are using the 2nd "margin" and not the first as you want to use it to buy stocks.
you can buy 75k of apple,the first 50k with your own money and then after that you can lend money from the broker with your 50k apple as collateral to buy another 25k apple,for this aditional 25k you pay interest.
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I'm smelling a TSLA shitstorm incoming.
Sudden drop, check. Lack of recovery, check. Abysmal revenue, check.
The laughing stock, pun not intended, of most dudes on fintwit.
Not advice but I've taken my small WDI gains and am now a bear on the prowl.
10/09/2018 Nvidia down gap closed. I think that was the last one.
Buying a bunch of VIX calls until I see a confirming move.
News say: SEC subpoenas Tesla financial records in new probe.
Looks like they are done with the pizza.
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I think I will avoid using my margin for now. I usually make a few trades a day, so the way I was hoping to use my margin was to split the amount borrowed across each of these trades so to evenly spread the risk. The way it seems is that I would only be able to use margin on one of the trades which would then be placing all the additional risk on that single trade which is not what I really intended.
Thanks for all the explanations and help guys =)
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TSLA isn’t going anywhere. The drop were people taking profits. Their gigafactory is actually producing a positive revenue stream. The only people that talk shit about TSLA are day traders that missed out, which was most likely why SEC opened a probe because they’re mad they couldn’t manipulate.
I wouldn’t doubt the Judge that allowed the sprint T-Mobile merger was also in on it.
Either way, the current market is heavily manipulated. I know because I was part of a recent acquisition that involves T-Mobile as well, and some one decided to purchase a $1million of the stock prior to the buyout.
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I worked as software developer (almost two years) in a company that has around 600 traders worldwide. All developers (and higher management) in our team were considering trading as pure gambling... statistically very few (something about one from 1000) can make money out of trading. It is totally imho, based on opinion of others, I am was not ever involved in trading directly.
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On February 15 2020 02:36 ShoCkeyy wrote:
TSLA isn’t going anywhere. The drop were people taking profits. Their gigafactory is actually producing a positive revenue stream. The only people that talk shit about TSLA are day traders that missed out, which was most likely why SEC opened a probe because they’re mad they couldn’t manipulate.
I wouldn’t doubt the Judge that allowed the sprint T-Mobile merger was also in on it.
Either way, the current market is heavily manipulated. I know because I was part of a recent acquisition that involves T-Mobile as well, and some one decided to purchase a $1million of the stock prior to the buyout.
Yup, the decent drop are the informed circles taking profits before the big drop.
And the big drop will happen over a weekend or overnight.
Meanwhile some college girls are posting videos on how to make money buying stocks.
And Ford and GM have production issues because of lack of chinese parts supply.
I'm not saying Tesla will necessarily go bust, but it will correct to fair value. I just don't see this thing having a higher price per share than Apple and MSFT combined.
On February 15 2020 02:51 bFunc wrote:
I worked as software developer (almost two years) in a company that has around 600 traders worldwide. All developers (and higher management) in our team were considering trading as pure gambling... statistically very few (something about one from 1000) can make money out of trading. It is totally imho, based on opinion of others, I am was not ever involved in trading directly.
It is gambling. But I prefer to view it as a roulette where you can skew the 50/50 odds in your favour if you are good.
Most of my money is in hard assets anyway.
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United States44012 Posts
Price per share doesn’t mean anything Vivax. Every now and then you make weird comments like that and the one about stock buybacks and it’s suddenly evident in that you’re not understanding the foundational concepts here.
Also what?It is gambling. But I prefer to view it as a roulette where you can skew the 50/50 odds in your favour if you are good.
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EPT
