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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 912

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

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farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18838 Posts
November 07 2018 21:46 GMT
#18221
Trump going for a coup would end a lot like Theon rallying his troops before the Flayed Men invaded Winterfell. The military is no friend of his, generally speaking.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21953 Posts
November 07 2018 21:46 GMT
#18222
This is a Hollywood movie. You don't just order a Coup. If Trump tells the military to arrest Congress they will simply refuse and he isn't going to find anyone willing to do it (outside of a few low rank nutballs that no doubt exist, who will be stopped by their colleagues in a heartbeat.

Trump can jump high and low all he wants. His power is limited, that's the whole point of separate branches of government.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
November 07 2018 21:47 GMT
#18223
On November 08 2018 06:46 farvacola wrote:
Trump going for a coup would end a lot like Theon rallying his troops before the Flayed Men invaded Winterfell. The military is no friend of his, generally speaking.

Any wargame scenario done by the military likely concludes they should not intervene until the absolute last moment. Probably only once marches and whatnot would be cracked down on. I'm not really sure when the military would step in.
Panthous
Profile Joined October 2018
30 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-11-07 21:54:16
November 07 2018 21:48 GMT
#18224
I don't think Trump's decision to go to jail or try for a coup will take into account how successful it will be.

Look, you people are being naive. Trump has been successfully chipping away at democratic institutions for 2 years now, with barely any opposition. It is not like tomorrow completely out of the blue Trump will suddenly order a coup. That is not how a coup happens. Especially not one being carried out by a sitting president.

Several times every decade a country slips from being a flawed democracy towards an actual dictatorship. A democracy is an unstable equilibrium. If you give it a little bump it will slip towards tyranny unless there is a force acting on it, keeping it in the unstable equilibrium.

All I am saying is that Trump will not go to jail. He will find a way. And Trump's support in yesterday's election makes it really hard to oppose him. Especially for Republicans. I still think they will let this quickly go away at some point, Mueller being a Republican and politicians of both parties wanting to avoid the embarrassment of finding out their president for the last 4 years was a Russian agent and is now in jail. I still believe Mueller will destroy the evidence he finds implicating Trump and blame Roger Stone for everything. The actual question is what happens to Trump jr. I think this is about the jr.
Ayaz2810
Profile Joined September 2011
United States2763 Posts
November 07 2018 21:49 GMT
#18225
On November 08 2018 06:35 farvacola wrote:
If things get that far, it'll be time to fight in the streets, it's not like an impeached Trump's rallies won't be violent, awful affairs with huge numbers turning out in opposition. And all the Repubs who swallowed his bullshot because it gave them power are not gonna join in, it'll be the end of Trumpism as we know it.

Trump does not control the SC lol, as much as fear mongering to the contrary asserts otherwise. Folks like Clarence Thomas would be especially likely to smack Trump down if he tries shit that was settled in 1820.


This is what I think is becoming a likely scenario. There is no way that Trump will go peacefully. Not only that, but if Mueller lays out a roadmap like they just released for Nixon, and the Senate refuses to impeach, you will see righties frothing at the mouth screaming that the impeachment is illegitimate, and you will see the lefties in the streets fighting them because they have had enough/are retaliating. That ignores all the other possibilities that a desperate and unhinged Trump might bring to pass (starting a war, using the military against Americans, or overreaching in some other way). It will be like a gang war. An asynchronous civil war. Likely? Not yet. Possible? Unfortunately.
Vrtra Vanquisher/Tiamat Trouncer/World Serpent Slayer
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18838 Posts
November 07 2018 21:49 GMT
#18226
I'll bet Mattis and the Joint Chiefs have already discussed this very thing, and it doesn't go Trump's way lol
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11630 Posts
November 07 2018 21:49 GMT
#18227
The nice thing is that the military doesn't really need to do anything to prevent a coup. They just need to not coup. Unless you are talking about Trump building his own paramilitary organisation, which he probably would love to do, but also probably isn't competent enough to do.
Ayaz2810
Profile Joined September 2011
United States2763 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-11-07 21:57:01
November 07 2018 21:53 GMT
#18228
A lot of you guys talking about the military disobeying Trump are oversimplifying. It won't be "go out and arrest my opponents!". It won't be that clean. It'll start with "I am deploying troops to protect our cities from the unrest/vandalism/looting". Then, the military collectively shrugs and says "okay, this is a job we can do with a clear conscience". Then the next step is to order the military to start arresting demonstrators. When those people fight back, shooting will start. Then, VOILA, you have justification for a coup that the military won't bat an eye at.

That's probably oversimplifying things, but I promise you if you think the military will have no part in Trump's nonsense, you are so fucking way off. As a soldier in the Army, I was put into positions like this in South Korea during rioting and protesting. Thank Jeebus I never had to make a decision about firing or not firing at someone. I can't even imagine.
Vrtra Vanquisher/Tiamat Trouncer/World Serpent Slayer
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18838 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-11-07 21:58:19
November 07 2018 21:57 GMT
#18229
Trump is particularly unpopular with the officers corps, so I very much doubt they'd shrug off any request of his as it pertains to civil unrest. Further, we get into state/federal territory given the division of command among governors and the Feds as it pertains to the national guard. Many, if not most, governors would counter deploy or give counter instructions if Trump tried unilaterally imposing any kind of martial law.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21953 Posts
November 07 2018 22:00 GMT
#18230
On November 08 2018 06:53 Ayaz2810 wrote:
A lot of you guys talking about the military disobeying Trump are oversimplifying. It won't be "go out and arrest my opponents!". It won't be that clean. It'll start with "I am deploying troops to protect our cities from the unrest/vandalism/looting". Then, the military collectively shrugs and says "okay, this is a job we can do with a clear conscience". Then the next step is to order the military to start arresting demonstrators. When those people fight back, shooting will start. Then, VOILA, you have justification for a coup that the military won't bat an eye at.

That's probably oversimplifying things, but I promise you if you think the military will have no part in Trump's nonsense, you are so fucking way off. As a soldier in the Army, I was put into positions like this in South Korea during rioting and protesting. Thank Jeebus I never had to make a decision about firing or not firing at someone. I can't even imagine.
Unrest on a level the police utterly cannot handle. Decently unlikely.
The military being deployed instead of outside police. Unlikely, deploying military against your own civilians never goes over well.
Military arresting protestors. Rather unlikely
Shooting. Super unlikely.
A Coup, hell will freeze over first.

I'm seriously not even remotely worried it will ever get beyond low level unrest and I question the grasp on reality of anyone that even considers a coup as a remote possibility.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Ayaz2810
Profile Joined September 2011
United States2763 Posts
November 07 2018 22:00 GMT
#18231
On November 08 2018 06:57 farvacola wrote:
Trump is particularly unpopular with the officers corps, so I very much doubt they'd shrug off any request of his as it pertains to civil unrest. Further, we get into state/federal territory given the division of command among governors and the Feds as it pertains to the national guard. Many, if not most, governors would counter deploy or give counter instructions if Trump tried unilaterally imposing any kind of martial law.


I have doubts about that. But I hope you're right. I don't think it will go that way in Trumpy states at all.
Vrtra Vanquisher/Tiamat Trouncer/World Serpent Slayer
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21953 Posts
November 07 2018 22:02 GMT
#18232
On November 08 2018 07:00 Ayaz2810 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 08 2018 06:57 farvacola wrote:
Trump is particularly unpopular with the officers corps, so I very much doubt they'd shrug off any request of his as it pertains to civil unrest. Further, we get into state/federal territory given the division of command among governors and the Feds as it pertains to the national guard. Many, if not most, governors would counter deploy or give counter instructions if Trump tried unilaterally imposing any kind of martial law.


I have doubts about that. But I hope you're right. I don't think it will go that way in Trumpy states at all.
The jump from "I like Trump because he makes me feel good about being a racist" to "Lets start a civil war" is so massive it doesn't bare talking about.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
November 07 2018 22:04 GMT
#18233
To be fair, the military would be better at policing than the police would.
Ayaz2810
Profile Joined September 2011
United States2763 Posts
November 07 2018 22:07 GMT
#18234
On November 08 2018 07:00 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 08 2018 06:53 Ayaz2810 wrote:
A lot of you guys talking about the military disobeying Trump are oversimplifying. It won't be "go out and arrest my opponents!". It won't be that clean. It'll start with "I am deploying troops to protect our cities from the unrest/vandalism/looting". Then, the military collectively shrugs and says "okay, this is a job we can do with a clear conscience". Then the next step is to order the military to start arresting demonstrators. When those people fight back, shooting will start. Then, VOILA, you have justification for a coup that the military won't bat an eye at.

That's probably oversimplifying things, but I promise you if you think the military will have no part in Trump's nonsense, you are so fucking way off. As a soldier in the Army, I was put into positions like this in South Korea during rioting and protesting. Thank Jeebus I never had to make a decision about firing or not firing at someone. I can't even imagine.
Unrest on a level the police utterly cannot handle. Decently unlikely.
The military being deployed instead of outside police. Unlikely, deploying military against your own civilians never goes over well.
Military arresting protestors. Rather unlikely
Shooting. Super unlikely.
A Coup, hell will freeze over first.

I'm seriously not even remotely worried it will ever get beyond low level unrest and I question the grasp on reality of anyone that even considers a coup as a remote possibility.


It's entirely possible that I'm being paranoid, but the military has been used already for low level unrest. Hell, I remember at the beginning of this year (maybe the end of last?) there were soldiers deployed during protests. I want to say it was Baltimore (not sure)?

"As the Missouri National Guard prepared to deploy to help quell riots in Ferguson, Missouri, that raged sporadically last year, the guard used highly militarized words such as "enemy forces" and "adversaries" to refer to protesters, according to documents obtained by CNN."

https://www.cnn.com/2015/04/17/politics/missouri-national-guard-ferguson-protesters/index.html

Anyway, the point is that it's possible, and this would be the President* to do it.

Vrtra Vanquisher/Tiamat Trouncer/World Serpent Slayer
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14047 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-11-07 22:13:42
November 07 2018 22:07 GMT
#18235
I would think the military would intervene in the cities once the food supply becomes threatened in those areas. The only possible civil war scenario is a period of unrest that targets the cities food and water supplies. See people blowing up the water pipelines into California or the roads and bridges bringing in food to major cities. Major city populations are extremely dependent on food shipments and it really wouldn't take that many bad actors to bring a city like Houston or Atlanta to its knees in a month.

The crisis moment would be when trump decides to leave the white house permanently.

On November 08 2018 07:04 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
To be fair, the military would be better at policing than the police would.

I'm telling yall we need to call up the militia to take back our street corners from them damm drug dealers.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Panthous
Profile Joined October 2018
30 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-11-07 22:10:01
November 07 2018 22:08 GMT
#18236
Trump already 'ordered' the military to guard the border with Mexico and to shoot at civilians.

Some of you should read 'How Democracy Ends´. Democracy can also end with Trump trying to call for a coup, and it horribly failing. When Trump throws the country into a constitutional crisis and it is either him or a complete power vacuum, what happens? If Trump somehow gets the military in the streets, under a pretense of course, and those soldiers on the floor are in a completely chaotic situation and they do not know whose orders to follow, who knows what will happen.

People here seriously suggest that Mattis and Kelly have already talked about how to carry out a coup against Trump. That is already an absurd idea, even though I agree it might have happened. But if it happened and Trump has evidence, that can be considered treasonous. And yes, removing article 25 basically is a coup.

But that is all besides the point. I am not saying there will be a coup, I am saying that Trump will find a way to end the Mueller investigation.
Geo.Rion
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
7377 Posts
November 07 2018 22:35 GMT
#18237
Interesting election, both sides seem to be somewhat happy with the outcome.
One thing I dont understand is Ted Cruz.
I understand people who re conservative. I can understand people who vote republican. I can even understand people supporting Trump..

What I cant understand is people supporting and voting for Ted Cruz.
"Protoss is a joke" Liquid`Jinro Okt.1. 2011
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21953 Posts
November 07 2018 22:40 GMT
#18238
On November 08 2018 07:35 Geo.Rion wrote:
Interesting election, both sides seem to be somewhat happy with the outcome.
One thing I dont understand is Ted Cruz.
I understand people who re conservative. I can understand people who vote republican. I can even understand people supporting Trump..

What I cant understand is people supporting and voting for Ted Cruz.
Its really simple.
There is an R next to his name.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
November 07 2018 22:46 GMT
#18239
On November 08 2018 07:40 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 08 2018 07:35 Geo.Rion wrote:
Interesting election, both sides seem to be somewhat happy with the outcome.
One thing I dont understand is Ted Cruz.
I understand people who re conservative. I can understand people who vote republican. I can even understand people supporting Trump..

What I cant understand is people supporting and voting for Ted Cruz.
Its really simple.
There is an R next to his name.


More so there is a D next to his opponent's name.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43219 Posts
November 07 2018 22:54 GMT
#18240
On November 08 2018 07:00 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 08 2018 06:53 Ayaz2810 wrote:
A lot of you guys talking about the military disobeying Trump are oversimplifying. It won't be "go out and arrest my opponents!". It won't be that clean. It'll start with "I am deploying troops to protect our cities from the unrest/vandalism/looting". Then, the military collectively shrugs and says "okay, this is a job we can do with a clear conscience". Then the next step is to order the military to start arresting demonstrators. When those people fight back, shooting will start. Then, VOILA, you have justification for a coup that the military won't bat an eye at.

That's probably oversimplifying things, but I promise you if you think the military will have no part in Trump's nonsense, you are so fucking way off. As a soldier in the Army, I was put into positions like this in South Korea during rioting and protesting. Thank Jeebus I never had to make a decision about firing or not firing at someone. I can't even imagine.
Unrest on a level the police utterly cannot handle. Decently unlikely.
The military being deployed instead of outside police. Unlikely, deploying military against your own civilians never goes over well.
Military arresting protestors. Rather unlikely
Shooting. Super unlikely.
A Coup, hell will freeze over first.

I'm seriously not even remotely worried it will ever get beyond low level unrest and I question the grasp on reality of anyone that even considers a coup as a remote possibility.

The army actually has rules of engagement, unlike the police. Police would be more effective.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
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