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He is but I have no idea what legal aspects you are referring to. The concept of diplomatic immunity extends to the heads of state of foreign countries so he can't be tried in the US unless he waves it for himself for some reason.
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Speaking of legal. DOJ has now appointed a special council now that trump has declared his campaign for the presidency. CNN is reporting the head of it is Jack Smith, a guy who recently served as the chief prosecutor for the Hague. They're also reporting that subpoena recipients have been told to appear before a grand jury in the near future.
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So I think we are at a point where Trump is flat out the presumptive nominee for republicans in 2024. Anyone have any conflicting perspectives?
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I don't think the GOP wants that to happen but also that they don't know how to stop it. With the Dems having trumps tax documents I think they're going to find even more skeletons out in the open.
The GOP may try to gin up something about Biden with Benghazi hearings but Trumps is facing real lawsuits and real legal issues that will mature over the next two years. I don't see how he is possibly a stronger candidate than in 2020 and even if Biden runs again for some reason I think he wins easily.
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On December 06 2022 03:28 Mohdoo wrote:
So I think we are at a point where Trump is flat out the presumptive nominee for republicans in 2024. Anyone have any conflicting perspectives?
Given how poorly his controversial Congressional picks did in the midterms (not the ones who were automatically going to win their super-red district, but the ones that had an actual close race, where most of them lost their races), I'd like to think that the MAGA movement isn't as strong as it used to be, and I think non-Trump conservatives are smelling blood in the water every time Trump continues to do stupid shit, like getting dinner with Kanye and Fuentes. I don't know if DeSantis is the person to topple Trump in the Republican primary - DeSantis has essentially no charisma - but I think it'll come down to two things, for the other Republicans:
1. Does it appear that Trump is losing so much steam that he'd be at a serious disadvantage in the general election against the Democratic party;
2. Are there any non-MAGA Republican leaders who are willing to risk their reputation being dragged through the mud by Trump in 2024, or are they going to wait one more election cycle in the hopes that Trump doesn't run in 2028.
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On December 06 2022 03:28 Mohdoo wrote:
So I think we are at a point where Trump is flat out the presumptive nominee for republicans in 2024. Anyone have any conflicting perspectives?
Yes, but such a statement should not be held as canon, because when you presume, you make a president out of you and me, so a presumptive nominee is just that. So if that's what "flat out... presumptive" means, then no. If you asked 2014, their presumptive nominee would have been Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush, for example.
He is mainly "presumed" to be the nominee by people on both sides of the aisle who stake their livelihoods on being anti-Trump and therefore depend on him existing and couldn't get by without him, and need to make him relevant immediately. Normal people realize any inauguration is over 2 years (over 50% of Biden's term) away and so it's mostly a moot discussion until any competition heats up, and primary season begins, in over a year. What we (presuming to speak for normal people) are more interested in is whether the voters can successfully excise the interests and likes of McConnell and to a lesser extent McCarthy and other vestigial swamp rats.
Most of the other potential candidates are engaged in holding valuable positions elsewhere, especially like Cruz, Rubio, DeSantis, or lack the ability for broad appeal, like Pence, Johnson, Romney, Scott, etc., or competence. One exception I can think of is Chris Christie who's not doing anything at the moment but has thrown some stones at Trump lately. The party needs strong governors also and it's a bit early for DeSantis to win a term as governor and then 2 years later become president after campaigning for what would be half of those two years. The role that minor candidates play is helping shape the conversation and platform. The role Trump plays is figuring out how to handle his messaging. He let Leslie Stahl in an interview AND Fox's own Chris Wallace get away with calling Hunter's laptop Russian disinformation with 0 evidence, for example. Media have never stumped so hard for Democrats and his main challenge is figuring out a new way to counter or go around that, because even the White House intern running Biden's Twitter account can get better messaging in this ecosystem. The good news for him is they are not particularly nicer to any other Republican slightly similar or connected to him. At any rate the shortest possible campaign is the most beneficial as it allows the least flinging of shit at the eventual nominee that can weaken him in the general campaign.
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I think Republicans are praying Trump gets indicted and convicted so they don't upset Trump's base by running against him and can pander to them in the primaries by claiming they'll pardon him once they're elected.
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United States44286 Posts
On December 06 2022 05:35 StasisField wrote:
I think Republicans are praying Trump gets indicted and convicted so they don't upset Trump's base by running against him and can pander to them in the primaries by claiming they'll pardon him once they're elected.
I agree. If he gets convicted of an indefensible crime that he 100% did then they'll happily turn the entire election into "Democrat witchhunt persecution, vote for us to save Trump and to lock her up".
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Lol If he gets convicted of an indefensible crime is a pretty good line. Dead to rights, We got him. Maybe they will find a body in those tax returns(seriously he was involved in NY construction they might) but it seems like a bit of a pipe dream. He's the front runner but I think Desantis could challenge him(I don't think he will).
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Northern Ireland27352 Posts
I think a lot depends on De Santis’ personal calculus
Seize a potential moment, or not.
There’s no guarantee that the theoretical sensible play, i.e let Trump burn himself out, by not opposing him you’ll not antagonise that base, and then run when it’s ‘your time’ will work out that way.
Hillary Clinton was a future President until she wasn’t, and nascent political phenomena completely derailed that seeming inevitable accession.
I don’t especially wish him success in him ambitions but I don’t know if it’s super advisable to just sit out for 4 full years and assume you can fill the same niche.
What if Trump wins? Then it’s 8 years
He could conceivably beat Trump to the nomination, especially if Trump has further legal issues. And if that’s achieved he’s surely got a better chance in the general.
If I was him I’d definitely be seriously considering striking while the iron is hot, with some real mid-term electoral sway behind me,versus the disaster zone that was most of Trump’s endorsed candidate, rather than sticking around for the perfect day’s surf. May not be the greatest wave ever seen around these parts, but it’s a wave.
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One of the biggest benefits of waiting until 2028 for DeSantis is that he wouldn't be up against a former president in the primary and an incumbent president in the general.
I struggle to even imagine who would be better positioned in 2028 against DeSantis than Trump and Biden are in 2024, let alone how they get there by 2028.
As long as both Trump and Biden are running I expect DeSantis to stay out.
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One danger is that DeSantis's governorship runs until 2028. Usually politicians get less popular the longer they stay on.
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On December 06 2022 11:38 GreenHorizons wrote:
One of the biggest benefits of waiting until 2028 for DeSantis is that he wouldn't be up against a former president in the primary and an incumbent president in the general.
I struggle to even imagine who would be better positioned in 2028 against DeSantis than Trump and Biden are in 2024, let alone how they get there by 2028.
As long as both Trump and Biden are running I expect DeSantis to stay out.
Whoever the GOP nominee is I am certain they would love to be up against the incumbent President in 2024
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Well, if you think that your just disagreeing with the entire history of american elections. Incumbent advantage is huge, it needs a total moron like Trump to lose despite having it.
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Norway28892 Posts
Incumbent advantage is historically huge but Biden's disapproval is also historically low (in fact lower than every president except Trump, and he's even been behind Trump at certain points.)
People like Clinton and Reagan had big approval dips in their first terms too - for approval to rise sharply later on, but I have somewhat of a hard time picturing Biden pulling off a similar feat. Jimmy Carter and Bush Senior both had worse approval ratings later on in their terms - but those two are also two of the only incumbents to lose.
Looking here, I'm left with the impression that Biden probably fared better as an 'unknown' than he'll fare as an incumbent, with the possible exception of 'if he runs against Trump again'.
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I agree with all of that and personally would like someone younger.
But the thing is, everything shows that being the Incumbent is a huge advantage and the midterms went pretty well for the Democrats. I have a hard time believing that the democratic party would rather gamble on someone else than trying Biden again. It just wouldn't make sense (+ the ripple effect such a decision would have on the image of the democratic party).
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Of course they wouldn’t want to try to primary Biden but the hope is that he would just step aside and announce that he is not seeking re-election. We actually have polling that shows Democrats would rather not try Biden again with over 50% saying they think he should not seek re-election.
https://news.yahoo.com/poll-desantis-remains-gops-top-210545980.html
Historically there is an incumbent advantage but historically you wouldn’t have the majority of your own party hoping you don’t seek a 2nd term as President.
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Politics is too volatile nowadays to decide if Biden sticks around or not. If things go particularly well or particularly poorly, it could change whatever the current situation is. Democrats will need to decide by June 2023 IMO. But I honestly think its possible Biden's presidency is in a good place in mid 2023.
Right now I think Trump is going to actually be convicted of something. He has recently shown that he really just doesn't have the resources and influence he did as president. The courts are not going his way. A large part of the party is ready to turn the page. Supreme court stuff fell flat.
Trump taxes + special counsel make this all feel very eventual. I think most people agree Trump definitely broke the law, as the law is written. The only question has been whether Trump is immune to the law. The justice department has given me the impression they are doing everything needed for the optics to look good and to make sure they have the most air tight case of all time. If the DOJ does indeed decide to convict, it will likely be the most overwhelming evidence to ever be presented.
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EPT
