EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 3822
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States43771 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15394 Posts
On November 17 2022 09:48 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: Is there truly no upside to DeSantis running and losing the primary to Trump? Perhaps it could still be a net-benefit for him, in terms of becoming a household name across the country and a familiar face for when he runs a second time in 2024, increasing his chances of winning the 2024 primary? Look at what happened to the people who ran against trump. what is their future as a presidential candidate? | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States43771 Posts
On November 17 2022 09:57 Mohdoo wrote: Look at what happened to the people who ran against trump. what is their future as a presidential candidate? That's fair, especially with Jeb, Cruz, and Rubio. I don't know how much of that is specifically due to Trump, but Trump definitely has the uncanny ability to throw shit everywhere to the point where other people get stained. | ||
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Amui
Canada10567 Posts
On November 17 2022 09:48 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: Is there truly no upside to DeSantis running and losing the primary to Trump? Perhaps it could still be a net-benefit for him, in terms of becoming a household name across the country and a familiar face for when he runs a second time in 2024, increasing his chances of winning the 2024 primary? I think the danger is he comes out with mud on his face after the primary, which I think DeSantis would win. It could make him non-viable for presidency when Trump (he is not known for being graceful in defeat) inevitably decides to do everything in his power to sink him as revenge. Losing just 1% of the R voting base would be bad already, but losing the entire MAGA wing(significantly more than 1% of R's) to a 3rd party Trump run or even just not voting would result in one of the largest D wins in history. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32737 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + -Protecting abortion access and preserving democracy against MAGA was capable of matching concerns about the economy, crime, and immigration. The conventional wisdom and punditry said inflation concerns would lead to a red wave, but the Democrats strategized well around Dobbs and democracy to cushion the blow as well as they could. -Americans by in large want to preserve abortion access. State referendums for protecting some form of abortion access won in Montana, Kentucky, Michigan, Vermont, and California. Can abortion stay relevant as an issue for long? If states are already beginning to enshrine some abortion protection, then there's less pressure to challenge SCOTUS and overturn Dobbs. Not like Congress will be passing an abortion law any time soon. Does the GOP liberalize on abortion now that they have firm evidence it's a losing issue for them? -The MAGA movement took blows. Many of Trump's anointed candidates in battleground states lost and the knives are out for Trump. Independents and moderates appear to be growing weary of Trump and election denying, and the looming presence of Trump motivated Democrats to vote. -DeSantis converted Florida into a red state from a red-leaning swing state. He's already the clear favourite to lead the GOP as Trump's star falls. Whether he can maintain the momentum and not end up a Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz is still up in the air. Trump is still darn popular and can bring out voters like no other candidate. But unlike Trump, DeSantis is still young and can wait until 2028 while staying relevant. -The Democratic bench held. They're finally building up some strong candidates for the presidency or Senate like governors Whitmer, Shapiro, and Polis while retaining all their senators and some key congressmen and congresswomen. There wasn't a 2010 blowout that wiped out promising Democratic talents that really stifled the party during Obama's presidency. -The blue wall is being rebuilt. The Democrats scored big wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota with state legislature flips while Wisconsin re-elected Evers. This was the first midterm since 1934 where the defending party didn't lose a state legislature apparently. It's a notable shift from the Obama years where Democrats largely let state governments slip by and let the GOP take a commanding lead. -We're seeing Gen Z and young millennials have an electoral influence. Their turnout wasn't anything impressive, but they voted so Democratic it offset the boomers with their GOP leaning. Maybe Biden taking actions like student debt cancellation and mobilizing the party to pass climate legislation and gun control helped. -Polling was weird. The mainstream, credible pollsters like NYT/Siena, Marist, and the broadcasters were showing a close environment, but pundits were expecting up a red wave. Others pointed to Democratic overperformances in special elections and a surge in women registering to vote. Perhaps some justification for the theory that GOP pollsters like Trafalgar were flooding the zone. -The GOP-controlled House will probably barrage Biden with plenty of investigations. I'm expecting Fauci, the Afghanistan withdrawal, Mayorkas, and Hunter Biden to all be open season. I don't expect Speaker McCarthy to have the most fun with his thin majority and wrangling the factions within the GOP. Probably not going to be much legislation passed, but the Dems already passed most of Biden's most pressing agenda items in the past two years so not the biggest loss I guess. | ||
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gobbledydook
Australia2593 Posts
On November 17 2022 10:12 PhoenixVoid wrote: Some thoughts on the midterm and its aftermath now that the dust is settling: + Show Spoiler + -Protecting abortion access and preserving democracy against MAGA was capable of matching concerns about the economy, crime, and immigration. The conventional wisdom and punditry said inflation concerns would lead to a red wave, but the Democrats strategized well around Dobbs and democracy to cushion the blow as well as they could. -Americans by in large want to preserve abortion access. State referendums for protecting some form of abortion access won in Montana, Kentucky, Michigan, Vermont, and California. Can abortion stay relevant as an issue for long? If states are already beginning to enshrine some abortion protection, then there's less pressure to challenge SCOTUS and overturn Dobbs. Not like Congress will be passing an abortion law any time soon. Does the GOP liberalize on abortion now that they have firm evidence it's a losing issue for them? -The MAGA movement took blows. Many of Trump's anointed candidates in battleground states lost and the knives are out for Trump. Independents and moderates appear to be growing weary of Trump and election denying, and the looming presence of Trump motivated Democrats to vote. -DeSantis converted Florida into a red state from a red-leaning swing state. He's already the clear favourite to lead the GOP as Trump's star falls. Whether he can maintain the momentum and not end up a Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz is still up in the air. Trump is still darn popular and can bring out voters like no other candidate. But unlike Trump, DeSantis is still young and can wait until 2028 while staying relevant. -The Democratic bench held. They're finally building up some strong candidates for the presidency or Senate like governors Whitmer, Shapiro, and Polis while retaining all their senators and some key congressmen and congresswomen. There wasn't a 2010 blowout that wiped out promising Democratic talents that really stifled the party during Obama's presidency. -The blue wall is being rebuilt. The Democrats scored big wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota with state legislature flips while Wisconsin re-elected Evers. This was the first midterm since 1934 where the defending party didn't lose a state legislature apparently. It's a notable shift from the Obama years where Democrats largely let state governments slip by and let the GOP take a commanding lead. -We're seeing Gen Z and young millennials have an electoral influence. Their turnout wasn't anything impressive, but they voted so Democratic it offset the boomers with their GOP leaning. Maybe Biden taking actions like student debt cancellation and mobilizing the party to pass climate legislation and gun control helped. -Polling was weird. The mainstream, credible pollsters like NYT/Siena, Marist, and the broadcasters were showing a close environment, but pundits were expecting up a red wave. Others pointed to Democratic overperformances in special elections and a surge in women registering to vote. Perhaps some justification for the theory that GOP pollsters like Trafalgar were flooding the zone. -The GOP-controlled House will probably barrage Biden with plenty of investigations. I'm expecting Fauci, the Afghanistan withdrawal, Mayorkas, and Hunter Biden to all be open season. I don't expect Speaker McCarthy to have the most fun with his thin majority and wrangling the factions within the GOP. Probably not going to be much legislation passed, but the Dems already passed most of Biden's most pressing agenda items in the past two years so not the biggest loss I guess. You're spot on with your analysis. Expect the House to focus on virtue signaling bills and endless investigations, and the Senate to focus on confirming judges. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13736 Posts
On November 17 2022 09:36 Mohdoo wrote: Yes, and I think that 1 big reason is just a really, really big reason. Its just a huge risk. Either Desantis is able to cannibalize Trump and essentially be the king of the republican party, or he gets sent to the void realm. Or he just waits 4 years and probably has a great shot. I think Desantis has too much to lose. I think you're missing the much more probable and much much much worse outcome, De santis runs in the primary, wins the primary, and loses the general due to the damage from trumps base being pissed off and all the money trump sucks out from their base. Dems's offense in 2024 is asking every candidate in a debate what their stance is on trump. Either they denounce him and lose trumpists or they don't and they lose moderates that can't stand trump. promising abortion rights and student debt relief are the things that will motivate that 18-29 demo that broke so incredibly hard for dems. Combine that with less boomers being alive to vote and more genx'ers able to vote and you've got an incredible picture forming. I think the biggest things that can change the situation is how the Russian collapse is handled, how the pieces are picked up after the fed breaks inflation and ofc gas prices. Something that is just fantasy booking would be if Biden manages to reform the nuclear agreement with Iran somehow to then bring Iranian oil out into the market. If the republican candidate criticizes it he can respond with he did it to lower gas prices. I don't know I just really hope we're all here in two years still to talk about the elections and things are better. | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
On November 17 2022 11:39 Sermokala wrote: I don't know I just really hope we're all here in two years still to talk about the elections and things are better. A-fucking-men. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States43771 Posts
On November 17 2022 10:07 Amui wrote: I think the danger is he comes out with mud on his face after the primary, which I think DeSantis would win. It could make him non-viable for presidency when Trump (he is not known for being graceful in defeat) inevitably decides to do everything in his power to sink him as revenge. Losing just 1% of the R voting base would be bad already, but losing the entire MAGA wing(significantly more than 1% of R's) to a 3rd party Trump run or even just not voting would result in one of the largest D wins in history. That's true. Once Trump is actually gone, the MAGA Republicans can rebrand themselves and/or reintegrate with the non-MAGA Republicans, allowing a popular conservative leader to avoid needing to choose between two subsections of the party. On November 17 2022 10:12 PhoenixVoid wrote: Some thoughts on the midterm and its aftermath now that the dust is settling: + Show Spoiler + -Protecting abortion access and preserving democracy against MAGA was capable of matching concerns about the economy, crime, and immigration. The conventional wisdom and punditry said inflation concerns would lead to a red wave, but the Democrats strategized well around Dobbs and democracy to cushion the blow as well as they could. -Americans by in large want to preserve abortion access. State referendums for protecting some form of abortion access won in Montana, Kentucky, Michigan, Vermont, and California. Can abortion stay relevant as an issue for long? If states are already beginning to enshrine some abortion protection, then there's less pressure to challenge SCOTUS and overturn Dobbs. Not like Congress will be passing an abortion law any time soon. Does the GOP liberalize on abortion now that they have firm evidence it's a losing issue for them? -The MAGA movement took blows. Many of Trump's anointed candidates in battleground states lost and the knives are out for Trump. Independents and moderates appear to be growing weary of Trump and election denying, and the looming presence of Trump motivated Democrats to vote. -DeSantis converted Florida into a red state from a red-leaning swing state. He's already the clear favourite to lead the GOP as Trump's star falls. Whether he can maintain the momentum and not end up a Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz is still up in the air. Trump is still darn popular and can bring out voters like no other candidate. But unlike Trump, DeSantis is still young and can wait until 2028 while staying relevant. -The Democratic bench held. They're finally building up some strong candidates for the presidency or Senate like governors Whitmer, Shapiro, and Polis while retaining all their senators and some key congressmen and congresswomen. There wasn't a 2010 blowout that wiped out promising Democratic talents that really stifled the party during Obama's presidency. -The blue wall is being rebuilt. The Democrats scored big wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota with state legislature flips while Wisconsin re-elected Evers. This was the first midterm since 1934 where the defending party didn't lose a state legislature apparently. It's a notable shift from the Obama years where Democrats largely let state governments slip by and let the GOP take a commanding lead. -We're seeing Gen Z and young millennials have an electoral influence. Their turnout wasn't anything impressive, but they voted so Democratic it offset the boomers with their GOP leaning. Maybe Biden taking actions like student debt cancellation and mobilizing the party to pass climate legislation and gun control helped. -Polling was weird. The mainstream, credible pollsters like NYT/Siena, Marist, and the broadcasters were showing a close environment, but pundits were expecting up a red wave. Others pointed to Democratic overperformances in special elections and a surge in women registering to vote. Perhaps some justification for the theory that GOP pollsters like Trafalgar were flooding the zone. -The GOP-controlled House will probably barrage Biden with plenty of investigations. I'm expecting Fauci, the Afghanistan withdrawal, Mayorkas, and Hunter Biden to all be open season. I don't expect Speaker McCarthy to have the most fun with his thin majority and wrangling the factions within the GOP. Probably not going to be much legislation passed, but the Dems already passed most of Biden's most pressing agenda items in the past two years so not the biggest loss I guess. I think this is a great summary. | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
https://www.businessinsider.com/herschel-walker-veers-off-speech-to-rant-about-werewolves-vampires-2022-11 | ||
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BlackJack
United States10180 Posts
Part of the appeal of a Herschel Walker or a Donald Trump or any number of egregious a–holes Republicans have backed is, in their mind, the worse a candidate is, the more it says to Democrats, ‘Do you see how much we don’t like what you are selling? All that socialism and identity politics and victimhood and oversensitivity and cancel culture and white self-loathing and forcing complicated ideas about race and sex on kids too young to understand it. Literally anything would be better than that.’ That’s their view. | ||
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Mikau313
Netherlands229 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11313 Posts
On November 17 2022 14:40 StasisField wrote: Earlier today, Herschel Walker went off script during a speech and began talking about vampires and werewolves. How can anyone defend voting for this guy? Republican voters are so brainwashed into blindly voting for any candidate with a R next to their name that they're actually letting this race go to a runoff. How fucking embarrassing for our country. https://www.businessinsider.com/herschel-walker-veers-off-speech-to-rant-about-werewolves-vampires-2022-11 To be fair though, he didn't claim that vampires are real or anything like that. From the recollection it seems to mostly be "I watched a movie about vampires and werewolves last night" story. Which, lets be honest, any of us could break out into a rant about at any given time. I rant about vampires, werewolves, faeries, wizards and golems all the time. Though on stage during a campaign rally is probably not the ideal point in time to do so. | ||
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Gahlo
United States35091 Posts
On November 17 2022 18:32 Simberto wrote: To be fair though, he didn't claim that vampires are real or anything like that. From the recollection it seems to mostly be "I watched a movie about vampires and werewolves last night" story. Which, lets be honest, any of us could break out into a rant about at any given time. I rant about vampires, werewolves, faeries, wizards and golems all the time. Though on stage during a campaign rally is probably not the ideal point in time to do so. He should have remembered which campaign he was attending that night. | ||
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States43771 Posts
On November 17 2022 20:20 Gahlo wrote: He should have remembered which campaign he was attending that night. I've never participated in a D&D campaign where someone wanted to play as the Retired-Football-Player-Turned-Fake-Policeman class before. Then again, I'm unfamiliar with the Republican Edition of the game. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11313 Posts
On November 17 2022 21:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: I've never participated in a D&D campaign where someone wanted to play as the Retired-Football-Player-Turned-Fake-Policeman class before. Then again, I'm unfamiliar with the Republican Edition of the game. I played in a Cyberpunk (The genre, not the setting) game where i played as an Ex-Cyberball-Pro mercenary. That is pretty close honestly, which i find kind of funny. | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21345 Posts
Its Benghazi 11.0 as they go after Hunter Biden.... This does not look like a GOP going back to sanity after a win that was really a loss. | ||
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