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I mean, every historical moment is unprecedented, you can always find variables that weren’t true previously and *might* mean previous trends don’t apply. But you have to exercise careful judgment about what you consider an important variable.
My impression is that “Biden will enjoy a healthy incumbent advantage” is closer to the truth than “Biden is unpopular and will have a harder time than 2020.” I think presidential incumbent advantage has more to do with systemic advantages for the guy in power than it does the specific popularity of the individual benefiting from being president. Republicans will probably have at least *some* kinda primary fight they have to go through first, and being President just gives you a lot of power to control the conversation.
Obviously being more popular would be better for him but I think it’s a mistake to read approval ratings and think they mean the same thing they did under Nixon or Reagan or Clinton. People just answer that poll question differently then they used to. Otherwise I think it would be pretty hard to understand how we got this midterm results given the president’s (un)popularity. Obviously there’s a lot of other factors that could change the political landscape by 2024 (Does the economy crash? What happens with Russia and Ukraine by then? Do we get any more J6-like political violence?) but I think the current information doesn’t give good reason to think Biden will be weak.
As for whether Trump will be the Republican nominee I think there’s an enormous amount of uncertainty about what Republicans do next. It’s never seemed clearer that Trump is bad for their electoral chances, but the prospect of decoupling from him is as fraught as ever. Anti-Trump Republicans I know seem excited, like they think this is their moment, but I think it’s pretty easy to imagine a few Republicans condemning Trump for wanting to “terminate the constitution,” a lot of speculation about whether he’s done, and then he just goes on to win the nomination anyway. I mean, who else is there besides Desantis? Hawley? Cruz again?
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The question wasn’t whether or not Biden will have an incumbent advantage. That’s pretty undisputed. Nobody would think Biden would be as well off running as an 82 year old that wasn’t the President for the last 4 years. The question was whether Republicans like DeSantis would want to delay their run so that they don’t have to tackle the incredible feat of beating Biden to win the Presidency.
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On December 07 2022 02:19 BlackJack wrote:
The question wasn’t whether or not Biden will have an incumbent advantage. That’s pretty undisputed. Nobody would think Biden would be as well off running as an 82 year old that wasn’t the President for the last 4 years. The question was whether Republicans like DeSantis would want to delay their run so that they don’t have to tackle the incredible feat of beating Biden to win the Presidency.
That's definitely a valid concern, and that's even after they get their reputation potentially destroyed by Trump in the primary. They'll be even more bloodied than usual imo, heading into the general election.
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On December 07 2022 02:19 BlackJack wrote:
The question wasn’t whether or not Biden will have an incumbent advantage. That’s pretty undisputed. Nobody would think Biden would be as well off running as an 82 year old that wasn’t the President for the last 4 years. The question was whether Republicans like DeSantis would want to delay their run so that they don’t have to tackle the incredible feat of beating Biden to win the Presidency.
Yeah, and I’m saying between incumbent advantage on the one side and Biden arguably being an especially weak candidate on the other, I think I’d weight incumbent advantage quite a bit more. You seem to think they should be falling over themselves to get to face Biden rather than some other replacement-level Dem, even despite the incumbent advantage, and I just don’t buy it. Maybe that’s partly because I don’t rate the “replacement-level Dem” all that highly either, but I also think you’re overstating the weakness of Biden’s position quite a bit.
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On December 07 2022 02:19 BlackJack wrote:
The question wasn’t whether or not Biden will have an incumbent advantage. That’s pretty undisputed. Nobody would think Biden would be as well off running as an 82 year old that wasn’t the President for the last 4 years. The question was whether Republicans like DeSantis would want to delay their run so that they don’t have to tackle the incredible feat of beating Biden to win the Presidency. I don't think DeStantis running or not will be about Biden, it will be about whether Trump will run and make the primary a dirty fight with the potential of losing Trumps cultists if he loses.
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On December 07 2022 02:38 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2022 02:19 BlackJack wrote:
The question wasn’t whether or not Biden will have an incumbent advantage. That’s pretty undisputed. Nobody would think Biden would be as well off running as an 82 year old that wasn’t the President for the last 4 years. The question was whether Republicans like DeSantis would want to delay their run so that they don’t have to tackle the incredible feat of beating Biden to win the Presidency. Yeah, and I’m saying between incumbent advantage on the one side and Biden arguably being an especially weak candidate on the other, I think I’d weight incumbent advantage quite a bit more. You seem to think they should be falling over themselves to get to face Biden rather than some other replacement-level Dem, even despite the incumbent advantage, and I just don’t buy it. Maybe that’s partly because I don’t rate the “replacement-level Dem” all that highly either, but I also think you’re overstating the weakness of Biden’s position quite a bit.
But are you making an apples to apples comparison? I.e. are you imagining some lesser known replacement nom as they are today subbing in for Biden or are you imagining the person that emerged victorious from the primaries with the majority support of their party and whose name is now all over the front pages of newspapers and on car bumper stickers and lawn signs? Somebody new and exciting to rally behind instead of another cycle of “well at least he’s not Trump” when we aren’t even sure Trump will be the opponent?
I think everyone in the GOP will be delighted if the biggest issue in the 2024 election is Biden’s age instead of why they want to deny woman access to abortion. Biden doesn’t have to convince everyone he can do the job at 82. He has to convince everyone he can do the job at 86 which is how old he will be at the end of a 2nd term.
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I think theres a simple logic for me at least for 24 Biden beats trump, Biden loses to Desantis, only if Trump withdrawn instead of A trump defeat in the primary. If there is a primary battle I think Biden wins either way.
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On December 07 2022 03:24 Sermokala wrote:
I think theres a simple logic for me at least for 24 Biden beats trump, Biden loses to Desantis, only if Trump withdrawn instead of A trump defeat in the primary. If there is a primary battle I think Biden wins either way.
I think primary battle with Trump involved is the key factor. If Trump participates, or endorses a candidate who embodies his values, nobody is going to come out clean.
If Trump withdraws quietly and gets his phone taken away, Desantis has a very good shot at the presidency.
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I don't see Trump not running. Especially now that he annouced his run. I fully believe he'd rather destroy the republican party, than to lose face.
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Norway28636 Posts
On December 07 2022 01:55 ChristianS wrote:
I mean, every historical moment is unprecedented, you can always find variables that weren’t true previously and *might* mean previous trends don’t apply. But you have to exercise careful judgment about what you consider an important variable.
My impression is that “Biden will enjoy a healthy incumbent advantage” is closer to the truth than “Biden is unpopular and will have a harder time than 2020.” I think presidential incumbent advantage has more to do with systemic advantages for the guy in power than it does the specific popularity of the individual benefiting from being president. Republicans will probably have at least *some* kinda primary fight they have to go through first, and being President just gives you a lot of power to control the conversation.
Obviously being more popular would be better for him but I think it’s a mistake to read approval ratings and think they mean the same thing they did under Nixon or Reagan or Clinton. People just answer that poll question differently then they used to. Otherwise I think it would be pretty hard to understand how we got this midterm results given the president’s (un)popularity. Obviously there’s a lot of other factors that could change the political landscape by 2024 (Does the economy crash? What happens with Russia and Ukraine by then? Do we get any more J6-like political violence?) but I think the current information doesn’t give good reason to think Biden will be weak.
As for whether Trump will be the Republican nominee I think there’s an enormous amount of uncertainty about what Republicans do next. It’s never seemed clearer that Trump is bad for their electoral chances, but the prospect of decoupling from him is as fraught as ever. Anti-Trump Republicans I know seem excited, like they think this is their moment, but I think it’s pretty easy to imagine a few Republicans condemning Trump for wanting to “terminate the constitution,” a lot of speculation about whether he’s done, and then he just goes on to win the nomination anyway. I mean, who else is there besides Desantis? Hawley? Cruz again?
The part that to me, regarding his approval ratings, speaks against Biden is he actually started with ratings in the mid-low 50s and he maintained them for like 7-8 months. Then he dropped 10 points and since then has mostly steadily maintained 41-42%, having a dip to 38, but never going above 43.
I don't think he can turn it around. I think this is enough against Trump because at least he's not Trump is no less true now than in 2020, so people don't have to approve of him to vote for him, but to me, his numbers read like he was given the benefit of the doubt by some 'centrist moderates', that he lost them, and that he won't get them back. I have no idea who can run that isn't Trump, and I think that fighting Trump in a primary will leave the candidate bloodied and even if winning, they'd be short much of Trump’s base.. but in the hypothetical scenario where Trump wasn't a factor and Republicans could have a primary without him, I'd assume we'd get a huge field because Republicans would consider it a great shot at the presidency, and that the approval ratings would be a bigger factor than the incumbency bonus is.
However in reality, we still probably live in a world where the election will, in some way, be decided by Trump’s involvement.
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On December 07 2022 02:19 BlackJack wrote:
The question wasn’t whether or not Biden will have an incumbent advantage. That’s pretty undisputed. Nobody would think Biden would be as well off running as an 82 year old that wasn’t the President for the last 4 years. The question was whether Republicans like DeSantis would want to delay their run so that they don’t have to tackle the incredible feat of beating Biden to win the Presidency.
I dont think the republicans see DeSantis as a major asset that they have to "safe",that they have to wait with for the best possible moment. He is a pretty good candidate though. And the republicans probably think they got a good change against Biden with DeSantis.
I think the republicans will go with DeSantis and hope he will carry florida and that that will be enough.
Difficult to make a prediction already,what happens in the final year can turn everything upside down. But right now i think Biden would be the favorit,albeit with a rather small margin.
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On December 07 2022 06:04 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2022 02:19 BlackJack wrote:
The question wasn’t whether or not Biden will have an incumbent advantage. That’s pretty undisputed. Nobody would think Biden would be as well off running as an 82 year old that wasn’t the President for the last 4 years. The question was whether Republicans like DeSantis would want to delay their run so that they don’t have to tackle the incredible feat of beating Biden to win the Presidency. I dont think the republicans see DeSantis as a major asset that they have to "safe",that they have to wait with for the best possible moment. He is a pretty good candidate though. And the republicans probably think they got a good change against Biden with DeSantis. I think the republicans will go with DeSantis and hope he will carry florida and that that will be enough. Difficult to make a prediction already,what happens in the final year can turn everything upside down. But right now i think Biden would be the favorit,albeit with a rather small margin.
The question is how DeSantis views stuff. He knows that he has got exactly one shot. Does he think that his best shot is in 24, or does he think that he has a better chance in 28?
It is not important if the republicans view him as an asset to safe up for the best chance. It is that he himselfs wants the best chance for himself.
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@BJ: Candidates tend to come out of primaries bruised. They had to spend a bunch of money already, and members of their own party were trying to tear them down. Maybe that depends a little on how that primary goes but my impression is that most of the 2020 candidates came out less liked than they went in - the fact they already lost once to Joe Biden doesn’t speak well of their ability to drive a movement where he couldn’t. And considering we haven’t had a blue wave since 2018 there’s not a lot of new faces to choose from that we didn’t already examine and discard in 2020. Warnock maybe? AOC?
@Drone: Sure, but that’s unusual behavior for approval rating, right? Normally there’d be a lot of movement based on, I dunno, the inflation or the latest scandal or a RATF effect when a war starts or whatever. But Biden’s is doing the same thing Trump’s did: start ~50%, drop somewhere in the 35-45% range at the first controversy, and just kinda stay there for the rest of time. It’s as though by the 100 day mark, almost everybody has decided how they’re gonna answer that question if asked and hardly anybody changes their mind.
Thing is, the reason we care is because it used to be predictive of how people will vote, and *that* doesn’t seem to be locked in stone the same way. For both Biden and Trump, there’s apparently a decent chunk of people that say they don’t approve of the President, but will still vote with that team when the time comes, and another decent chunk that won’t but maybe would have under different circumstances. The generic congressional ballot, for instance, moves around as new events happen in a way that *does* seem to be predictive of voting.
That’s also kinda intuitive, introspectively? Most people will acknowledge (at least if you ask in the right context) that both parties suck, that every election both candidates seem even worse than the last one, and that they’re voting more against the other team than for their own. So of course everybody’s “approval” is low, right? I don’t “approve” of Joe Biden but I’d sure as hell vote for him over Trump or Desantis right now.
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On December 07 2022 06:56 ChristianS wrote:
@BJ: Candidates tend to come out of primaries bruised. They had to spend a bunch of money already, and members of their own party were trying to tear them down. Maybe that depends a little on how that primary goes but my impression is that most of the 2020 candidates came out less liked than they went in - the fact they already lost once to Joe Biden doesn’t speak well of their ability to drive a movement where he couldn’t. And considering we haven’t had a blue wave since 2018 there’s not a lot of new faces to choose from that we didn’t already examine and discard in 2020. Warnock maybe? AOC?
@Drone: Sure, but that’s unusual behavior for approval rating, right? Normally there’d be a lot of movement based on, I dunno, the inflation or the latest scandal or a RATF effect when a war starts or whatever. But Biden’s is doing the same thing Trump’s did: start ~50%, drop somewhere in the 35-45% range at the first controversy, and just kinda stay there for the rest of time. It’s as though by the 100 day mark, almost everybody has decided how they’re gonna answer that question if asked and hardly anybody changes their mind.
Thing is, the reason we care is because it used to be predictive of how people will vote, and *that* doesn’t seem to be locked in stone the same way. For both Biden and Trump, there’s apparently a decent chunk of people that say they don’t approve of the President, but will still vote with that team when the time comes, and another decent chunk that won’t but maybe would have under different circumstances. The generic congressional ballot, for instance, moves around as new events happen in a way that *does* seem to be predictive of voting.
That’s also kinda intuitive, introspectively? Most people will acknowledge (at least if you ask in the right context) that both parties suck, that every election both candidates seem even worse than the last one, and that they’re voting more against the other team than for their own. So of course everybody’s “approval” is low, right? I don’t “approve” of Joe Biden but I’d sure as hell vote for him over Trump or Desantis right now. Exactly, it doesn't matter how disliked Biden is when the other option Trump (or DeSantis) and a federal Abortion ban.
There isn't a lot of space to move left or right with how polarized and radicalised US politics is right now, its a choice between reality and fascists conspiracy nutjobs and everyone has long since made up their mind.
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I haven't posted my thoughts on the election, but I think the idea that approval doesn't matter and that everyone is going to vote for their guy is too narrow and best and wrong at worst. 2022 showed persuasion and individual candidates matter, whether it's trumpy candidates losing Biden disapprovers or republican congressional candidates winning Biden +10 seats, we saw just how much the "who" still matters.
Desantis won FL by more than Newsom won CA, with Rubio right behind him. Meanwhile, Walker is set to lose to Warnock while Kemp won by 8. (Warnock is his own issues, but he's got watercarries everywhere so they don't get as much play).
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I certainly don’t think “everyone is going to vote for their guy,” nor that candidate quality is irrelevant. But I do think approval rating is not a useful number to look at in predicting how people will vote, at least not in the way that it clearly was 20 or 30 years ago.
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Id like to continue to assert that driving turnout is more important than trying to get people to switch who they'd theoretically vote for. Doing things that drive voter turnout is probably going to get more people to be voting for the people who are driving them to turnout anyways.
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On December 07 2022 08:51 Zambrah wrote:
Id like to continue to assert that driving turnout is more important than trying to get people to switch who they'd theoretically vote for. Doing things that drive voter turnout is probably going to get more people to be voting for the people who are driving them to turnout anyways.
This is correct imo.
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On December 07 2022 06:56 ChristianS wrote:
@BJ: Candidates tend to come out of primaries bruised. They had to spend a bunch of money already, and members of their own party were trying to tear them down. Maybe that depends a little on how that primary goes but my impression is that most of the 2020 candidates came out less liked than they went in - the fact they already lost once to Joe Biden doesn’t speak well of their ability to drive a movement where he couldn’t. And considering we haven’t had a blue wave since 2018 there’s not a lot of new faces to choose from that we didn’t already examine and discard in 2020. Warnock maybe? AOC?.
Gavin Newsom or Jared Polis. Both popular governors and governors have also historically been more likely to become President than Congresspeople.
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EPT
