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United States42778 Posts
On December 07 2022 21:04 plasmidghost wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2022 16:17 Simberto wrote:On December 07 2022 08:56 farvacola wrote:On December 07 2022 08:51 Zambrah wrote:
Id like to continue to assert that driving turnout is more important than trying to get people to switch who they'd theoretically vote for. Doing things that drive voter turnout is probably going to get more people to be voting for the people who are driving them to turnout anyways. This is correct imo. The republican strategy of targetted voter suppression makes it very clear that they also believe this to be true. That is correct too. I've gone from hating voting to actually pushing people to vote, which is not something I thought I'd ever do, but ultimately it is necessary and crucial in America
Really depends where you live. Simple plurality is the worst of all systems. If you live in one of the states where your vote matters then you should probably vote though.
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United States10168 Posts
On December 07 2022 18:06 Liquid`Drone wrote:
As mentioned, I do think Trump is the big factor here, in two ways: If Trump runs for republicans, then he'll push democrat turnout even if people don't particularly approve of Biden. In that case, Biden's approval moving 4%+- strikes me as probably kinda irrelevant. The other way he's important is through how he'll influence the republican primaries, that is, to what degree can a republican go through those primaries and not a) become Trump and b) keep hold of his base.
But the point of departure for this discussion, as I perceived it, was whether other republicans should aim for challenging Biden, and whether the incumbency boost or the approval rating is the most important factor.. While I think Biden's approval rating is pretty irrelevant for a match up against Trump, I also think the incumbency boost is. However, I think both are highly relevant for a match up against somebody else - a lower approval rating should, logically, indicate a higher willingness to plunge into the unknown. If there was some hypothetical reasonably unknown Republican who somehow isn't currently on the radar but who could string together a somewhat coherent anti-(illegal)immigrant anti-taxation 'let abortion be decided by the states' 'the election in 2020 was fair' 'gays are okay but some of this new stuff with children changing genders like underwear scares me' then suddenly we'd have an actual campaign on our hands. If such a match up were to happen, I'd picture Biden's approval rating basically ending up being the decider.
(While this is obviously a stretch (the notion that such a candidate exists), while he's not my ideal candidate in terms of policy, I think Pete Buttigieg is probably the most gifted democrat politician in the post-Obama era, and I think he was essentially completely unknown nationally at this point of Trump's term, so it shouldn't be impossible.)
How do you think Biden will fare against Desantis? I anticipate him being the Republican nominee and I feel most moderates don't know enough about him yet to think he's similar to Trump (even tho he's pretty much just Trump at the policy level but with a functioning brain for public speaking).
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Norway28674 Posts
On December 08 2022 00:30 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2022 18:06 Liquid`Drone wrote:
As mentioned, I do think Trump is the big factor here, in two ways: If Trump runs for republicans, then he'll push democrat turnout even if people don't particularly approve of Biden. In that case, Biden's approval moving 4%+- strikes me as probably kinda irrelevant. The other way he's important is through how he'll influence the republican primaries, that is, to what degree can a republican go through those primaries and not a) become Trump and b) keep hold of his base.
But the point of departure for this discussion, as I perceived it, was whether other republicans should aim for challenging Biden, and whether the incumbency boost or the approval rating is the most important factor.. While I think Biden's approval rating is pretty irrelevant for a match up against Trump, I also think the incumbency boost is. However, I think both are highly relevant for a match up against somebody else - a lower approval rating should, logically, indicate a higher willingness to plunge into the unknown. If there was some hypothetical reasonably unknown Republican who somehow isn't currently on the radar but who could string together a somewhat coherent anti-(illegal)immigrant anti-taxation 'let abortion be decided by the states' 'the election in 2020 was fair' 'gays are okay but some of this new stuff with children changing genders like underwear scares me' then suddenly we'd have an actual campaign on our hands. If such a match up were to happen, I'd picture Biden's approval rating basically ending up being the decider.
(While this is obviously a stretch (the notion that such a candidate exists), while he's not my ideal candidate in terms of policy, I think Pete Buttigieg is probably the most gifted democrat politician in the post-Obama era, and I think he was essentially completely unknown nationally at this point of Trump's term, so it shouldn't be impossible.) How do you think Biden will fare against Desantis? I anticipate him being the Republican nominee and I feel most moderates don't know enough about him yet to think he's similar to Trump (even tho he's pretty much just Trump at the policy level but with a functioning brain for public speaking).
Complete guess game because I think it boils down to what Trump does. If somehow Trump went 'Okay fellas, RON TheChampis my pick for the future of the republican party, I love Ron he's a winner like me he's done so much good for Florida, you know I used to live in New York but now I live in Florida, Mar a Lago, that's a real beautiful place, we're gonna go to Mars before the Chinese, anyway they killed us with covid'
and then handed mr Desantis the ticket, I imagine he'd end up winning. But more likely he gives an equally incoherent message of fuck mr. holier than thou wife-cheater or hm was it wife-beater you know I've heard a lot of stories, he's a nasty guy this one, and in that case I'm guessing Ron would miss out on a sufficient amount of the Trump-base to make Biden take it. Something more neutral I dunno. Not liking Biden's odds on the main stage in general if he has to fight for independents/undecided voters against someone those independents/undecided voters aren't familiar with.
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You have somehow captured the absolute essence of Trump.
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It's funny watching Elon bend the knee by banning Kanye for posting a swastika on Twitter. Followed with the mental gymnastics of calling it an incitement to violence and a violation of US law. Except it's already been adjudicated and it's not illegal to display swastikas. Poor Elon thought he could buy Twitter and run it how he wants but he's learning that the advertisers are the ones that call the shots.
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On December 08 2022 07:31 BlackJack wrote:
It's funny watching Elon bend the knee by banning Kanye for posting a swastika on Twitter. Followed with the mental gymnastics of calling it an incitement to violence and a violation of US law. Except it's already been adjudicated and it's not illegal to display swastikas. Poor Elon thought he could buy Twitter and run it how he wants but he's learning that the advertisers are the ones that call the shots.
Yeah Elon slowly walking back all his changes as he realizes why those policies were there in the first place has been great
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Governments just need to butt out of private business and let the true entrepreneurs run their platforms as they deem fit. What? It's the money that's telling the private businesses how to run their platforms? Not what Elon and the lie have been crying. Fake news.
- someone somewhere, probably.
Honestly, for all the good social media was supposed to do, it has turned out one of the worst things. There is good to be found for sure, but sheesh, they dropped the ball. Bring back Google+. Seems like TikTok is being sued or banned by every state. Is it in response to China or that it's not a very secure app? Will govt ever nationalize media or become more strict with what is being peddled without censoring?
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On December 07 2022 12:59 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2022 11:51 FlaShFTW wrote:
Yeah, it's over. Warnock is gonna win by a clear margin now, about 1-2 point gain in the more relevant counties, and his margins in the outstanding counties are outpacing his November performances.
TL Decision Desk projects Warnock will win the Georgia runoff and retain his seat! So happy this is the case!
Fuckin' A. While it's frightening that they ever thought running Walker was a good idea, at least Warnock didn't end up losing the seat to him. Democrats had a slim majority in either case, but this is definitely the better outcome. I think. The House flipping probably still makes it a wash. But a bullet was definitely dodged.
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United States42778 Posts
On December 08 2022 02:14 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Complete guess game because I think it boils down to what Trump does. If somehow Trump went 'Okay fellas, RON TheChampis my pick for the future of the republican party, I love Ron he's a winner like me he's done so much good for Florida, you know I used to live in New York but now I live in Florida, Mar a Lago, that's a real beautiful place, we're gonna go to Mars before the Chinese, anyway they killed us with covid'
Posting to say that I loved this and that I heard his weird voice as I read it.
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On December 07 2022 06:50 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2022 06:04 pmh wrote:On December 07 2022 02:19 BlackJack wrote:
The question wasn’t whether or not Biden will have an incumbent advantage. That’s pretty undisputed. Nobody would think Biden would be as well off running as an 82 year old that wasn’t the President for the last 4 years. The question was whether Republicans like DeSantis would want to delay their run so that they don’t have to tackle the incredible feat of beating Biden to win the Presidency. I dont think the republicans see DeSantis as a major asset that they have to "safe",that they have to wait with for the best possible moment. He is a pretty good candidate though. And the republicans probably think they got a good change against Biden with DeSantis. I think the republicans will go with DeSantis and hope he will carry florida and that that will be enough. Difficult to make a prediction already,what happens in the final year can turn everything upside down. But right now i think Biden would be the favorit,albeit with a rather small margin. The question is how DeSantis views stuff. He knows that he has got exactly one shot. Does he think that his best shot is in 24, or does he think that he has a better chance in 28? It is not important if the republicans view him as an asset to safe up for the best chance. It is that he himselfs wants the best chance for himself.
If DeSantis thinks 2024 is the only change he will get (which i think it is) then he will take it no matter what.
Us politics has small windows of opportunity. Most candidates get one shot and after that they dont get another.
Examples beeing:Romney and Cruz for the republicans. Cain for the democrats and earlier Gore.
Noone would even consider these people going for another attempt.
Trump might be the first one in a rather long time who has a somewhat decent change at making a comeback (just to be clear,i dont think he will make it to candidate again but at least he has some changes).
2024 i think is the window for DeSantis,if he doesnt grab it now then in 2028 there will be someone else.
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On December 08 2022 18:10 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2022 06:50 Simberto wrote:On December 07 2022 06:04 pmh wrote:On December 07 2022 02:19 BlackJack wrote:
The question wasn’t whether or not Biden will have an incumbent advantage. That’s pretty undisputed. Nobody would think Biden would be as well off running as an 82 year old that wasn’t the President for the last 4 years. The question was whether Republicans like DeSantis would want to delay their run so that they don’t have to tackle the incredible feat of beating Biden to win the Presidency. I dont think the republicans see DeSantis as a major asset that they have to "safe",that they have to wait with for the best possible moment. He is a pretty good candidate though. And the republicans probably think they got a good change against Biden with DeSantis. I think the republicans will go with DeSantis and hope he will carry florida and that that will be enough. Difficult to make a prediction already,what happens in the final year can turn everything upside down. But right now i think Biden would be the favorit,albeit with a rather small margin. The question is how DeSantis views stuff. He knows that he has got exactly one shot. Does he think that his best shot is in 24, or does he think that he has a better chance in 28? It is not important if the republicans view him as an asset to safe up for the best chance. It is that he himselfs wants the best chance for himself. If DeSantis thinks 2024 is the only change he will get (which i think it is) then he will take it no matter what. Us politics has small windows of opportunity. Most candidates get one shot and after that they dont get another. Examples beeing:Romney and Cruz for the republicans. Cain for the democrats and earlier Gore. Noone would even consider these people going for another attempt. Trump might be the first one in a rather long time who has a somewhat decent change at making a comeback (just to be clear,i dont think he will make it to candidate again but at least he has some changes). 2024 i think is the window for DeSantis,if he doesnt grab it now then in 2028 there will be someone else.
Eh not sure why you'd think that politicians only get 1 shot. Even the examples you listed, Romney lost the primary to McCain the election cycle before he won the nomination. Gore has multiple previous presidential campaigns before he became the VP and got the nom in 2000. I don't know who Cain is, maybe Clinton? She lost the nomination to Obama in '08 before coming back to win it in 2016. Even Ted Cruz I can see running again. Hell, Joe Biden has been running for President for 30+ years before he finally won. Perhaps your point is that you only get 1 shot after winning the nomination? If that's the case including Ted Cruz on your list of examples doesn't make any sense though.
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On December 08 2022 12:45 NewSunshine wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2022 12:59 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On December 07 2022 11:51 FlaShFTW wrote:
Yeah, it's over. Warnock is gonna win by a clear margin now, about 1-2 point gain in the more relevant counties, and his margins in the outstanding counties are outpacing his November performances.
TL Decision Desk projects Warnock will win the Georgia runoff and retain his seat! So happy this is the case! Fuckin' A. While it's frightening that they ever thought running Walker was a good idea, at least Warnock didn't end up losing the seat to him. Democrats had a slim majority in either case, but this is definitely the better outcome. I think. The House flipping probably still makes it a wash. But a bullet was definitely dodged.
Oh, absolutely. Having a buffer of an additional vote can help neuter a rogue Manchin disagreement, for example. That being said, it's still terrifying that nearly half of Georgia's voters wanted Walker to win and voted for him, and those voters will surely be around for the next election cycle.
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Feels like Republican party is now feeling the consequences of going all-in on protecting Trumps ego in the lost 2020 election. Their campaign against mail and dropbox ballots surely has stopped some republican people from voting at all, because they couldn't or didn't want to go in line, and now they've lost a lot of tight races where those could've helped.
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On December 08 2022 20:28 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Feels like Republican party is now feeling the consequences of going all-in on protecting Trumps ego in the lost 2020 election. Their campaign against mail and dropbox ballots surely has stopped some republican people from voting at all, because they couldn't or didn't want to go in line, and now they've lost a lot of tight races where those could've helped. Also, how many Republicans didn't bother to vote 'because its rigged anyway'?
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On December 08 2022 20:36 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2022 20:28 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Feels like Republican party is now feeling the consequences of going all-in on protecting Trumps ego in the lost 2020 election. Their campaign against mail and dropbox ballots surely has stopped some republican people from voting at all, because they couldn't or didn't want to go in line, and now they've lost a lot of tight races where those could've helped. Also, how many Republicans didn't bother to vote 'because its rigged anyway'?
That + Not believing that mailing in your vote is a legitimate way to vote, so they pigeonhole themselves into having only one day (Election Day) to vote. If they can't vote in person on Election Day, they may not bother voting at all.
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Kyrsten Sinema is officially changing her political affiliation from Democrat to Independent. I don't know if that'll make much difference in how she votes; I guess it's a little more honest.
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She's making the switch now because we're officially in '24 campaign season, as dumb as that sounds/is, and she was a terrible support for Dems in Arizona this past cycle. She knows the state party won't devote itself to her reelection so shes trying to get ahead on the very steep hill independents have to climb in elections. This not only makes it more likely that she goes away come '24, which is nice, it opens up a spot for Dems to run someone more in line with the party's views.
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On December 09 2022 22:30 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2022 22:28 farvacola wrote:
She's making the switch now because we're officially in '24 campaign season, as dumb as that sounds/is, and she was a terrible support for Dems in Arizona this past cycle. She knows the state party won't devote itself to her reelection so shes trying to get ahead on the very steep hill independents have to climb in elections. This not only makes it more likely that she goes away come '24, which is nice, it opens up a spot for Dems to run someone more in line with the party's views. I wonder if she will steal more rep or dem votes given her voting history.
very good question, Arizona is a weird place so it's very hard to say
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EPT
