EPTEDIT: I wouldn't be so quick to call AZ either. Unlike most states, the Republican party has done a lot of ground work to promote mail-in ballots and because of this we are going to see Kelly's lead slowly dwindle. It's going to be close.
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
EDIT: I wouldn't be so quick to call AZ either. Unlike most states, the Republican party has done a lot of ground work to promote mail-in ballots and because of this we are going to see Kelly's lead slowly dwindle. It's going to be close. | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28555 Posts
On November 09 2022 18:40 Liquid`Drone wrote: Eh- you might well argue that the Democratic party essentially encompasses 80%+ of the entire scandinavian political spectrum, with sub 10% of our most leftwing voters being too far left to be part of it, and with something like 5% of our right wingers being moderate republicans and up to 5% of our right wing voters being kinda Trumpy. The Norwegian conservative party today would be considered Clinton democrats, and people who vote for our Socialist Left party would have no problem aligning with Sanders. So yes, there are fluctuations, but they're on a much smaller scale than moving from current mainstream Democrat to current mainstream Republican. California also elected a republican governor as late as 2006 To add to this point - a member of parliament representing the Red Party - a genuinely Marxist bunch (they are our leftmost party, got 4.6% of the vote the previous election) is currently in the US following the election, and ten hours ago, he posted a picture on facebook of himself wearing an AOC tshirt with the caption 'Bringing out the vote for AOC i the Bronx!' So actually my estimate seems to have been a bit off - the Democrat party basically encompasses 90%+ of the Norwegian political spectrum. (While there are members of the progress party, our most right wing group, who highly appreciate Reagan, following January 06 I haven't seen any members of Parliament state support for Trump. ) | ||
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pmh
1351 Posts
Either way:it looks like even the house is somewhat close. Its a good outcome for the democrats there is no doubt about that. And for the future a few random remarks and considerations. Trump beeing the candidate would be the best thing that can happen to the democrats in 2024. And to be honest i have a hard time seeing deSantis win as well. If the democrats dont mess up in the next 4 years they have a real shot at winning. The only problem is Biden,and then maybe even more so his age then his low popularity. Another problem is the VP. Biden picked a VP who will have zero change in winning the next election,after Biden there is nothing. When it comes to the long term it would have been better to pick a VP that might actually have decent changes to succeed Biden. A person who could grow into his role. Reagan into Bush. Clinton into Gore. And maybe even Obama into Clinton. There was a credible line of succession and continuity. Which is lacking recently. Trump also picked a VP who had no real change of succeeding him. The VP is now picked to cover perceived "holes" in the ticket. To apease the part of the party that might not overwhelmingly support the main candidate. This works pretty well for 1 single cycle but it creates problems the next. A potential succesor has to build up from scratch again instead of slowly beeing brought into the position by first beeing VP. | ||
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Liquid`Drone
Norway28555 Posts
On November 09 2022 19:43 StasisField wrote: I'm seeing lots of copium online about NV atm. Apparently, a huge chunk of what's yet to be reported are mail-in ballots and people are saying they're gonna heavily break for Cortez-Masto. I honestly don't think it'll be enough. EDIT: I wouldn't be so quick to call AZ either. Unlike most states, the Republican party has done a lot of ground work to promote mail-in ballots and because of this we are going to see Kelly's lead slowly dwindle. It's going to be close. It's definitely in the category of napkin math, but I'm feeling very certain about AZ. All the counties that went republican in 2020 are 80%+ counted, while the ones with a lot of remaining votes are in regions that went D in 2020. Exception is Pinal County, where I can see this type of discrepancy give ~20k currently uncounted votes for Masters, but I can't see how they get 107k votes. Most of the uncounted ones are in Maricopa and Pima - both went D in 2020, and while the current margins are higher, it's not by that much. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10180 Posts
On November 09 2022 19:59 pmh wrote: -Deleted part of my post. Either way:it looks like even the house is somewhat close. Its a good outcome for the democrats there is no doubt about that. And for the future a few random remarks and considerations. Trump beeing the candidate would be the best thing that can happen to the democrats in 2024. And to be honest i have a hard time seeing deSantis win as well. If the democrats dont mess up in the next 4 years they have a real shot at winning. The only problem is Biden,and then maybe even more so his age then his low popularity. Another problem is the VP. Biden picked a VP who will have zero change in winning the next election,after Biden there is nothing. When it comes to the long term it would have been better to pick a VP that might actually have decent changes to succeed Biden. A person who could grow into his role. Reagan into Bush. Clinton into Gore. And maybe even Obama into Clinton. There was a credible line of succession and continuity. Which is lacking recently. Trump also picked a VP who had no real change of succeeding him. The VP is now picked to cover perceived "holes" in the ticket. To apease the part of the party that might not overwhelmingly support the main candidate. This works pretty well for 1 single cycle but it creates problems the next. A potential succesor has to build up from scratch again instead of slowly beeing brought into the position by first beeing VP. Assuming both parties would rather run young-ish, charismatic, and popular candidates, i.e. Gavin Newsom and Ron Desantis and not the 2 unpopular old guys they ran last time, I think the Democrats are at a big advantage there. I think there's a decent probability that Biden's handlers convince him not to run again while there's 0 chance that Trump doesn't try to run again. Trump is also the last person you would want to primary against. Even if you can beat him he's going to go scorched earth and drag you down with him. | ||
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Broetchenholer
Germany1849 Posts
On November 09 2022 17:45 StasisField wrote: 2 Senators per state is in the Constitution, so we would need to amend the Constitution. Proposing an amendment requires either 2/3 vote in both chambers or for 2/3 of each state legislature to call for a state convention for an amendment to the Constitution. Ratifying the amendment requires either 3/4 of state legislatures or 3/4 of state conventions to ratify the amendment. So changing the Senate is practically impossible. Depending on what you mean by "reform campaign finance", it might be considered unconstitutional, thanks to rulings like Citizens United, meaning the Democrats would, with the current makeup of the Supreme Court, have to propose an amendment to introduce certain campaign finance reform. Things are also a bit unclear about how much power the federal government has over elections (fun fact: it's so unclear that there is currently a case being heard by the Supreme Court that could make it so that each state's legislature can simply decide the results of their elections, thus ending democracy!), so you would either need each state to get rid of FPTP or you would have to risk passing a bill that might get ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, at which point you would need to propose an amendment if you still wanted to pursue a solution at the federal level. American politics is fucked seven ways to Sunday. So, voting on the preisdent is handled on a state by state basis and every state can simply decide how to chose which president they are electing, as long as the Supreme Court is not voiding their specific way of doing it? So, California could start ranked choice voting for their presidential candidate today, thus, crippling Democrats chances of ever winnign the presidential race ever, because the midwest and southern states could keep making sure that their votes can only go Rep for the rest of time and the only way to change that is to amend the constitution, which requires first that the midwest and southern states agree to these changes? So, as long as 13 states remain under control of a party that opposes the idea of more then 2 parties, there cannot be a change? Nice! New Idea, Democrats start a war against....Canada. Then manage to somehow lose with zero shots fired to NATO. The country gets occupied by peacekeepers who decide for the surrendered US to write a new constitution. Who is in? | ||
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BlackJack
United States10180 Posts
On November 09 2022 16:00 ChristianS wrote: It’s a little early to be narrative-setting, but if we’re picking where to look for answers after this election: how did Republicans not clean house? You’ve repeatedly pointed out inflation, and gas prices, and Biden’s approval rating, and the longstanding historical trend for out-party gains in midterms. Funny you bring up the Tea Party, because last time you guys were here was 2010. How’s tonight looking by comparison? My point isn’t to gloat, you’ll still probably get both houses. My point is that guys like DeSantis got to decide what your party was gonna run on this cycle, and what did they pick? CRT. Trans panic. Culture war, all day every day. Republicans brought that message all over the country, with just about every conceivable wind at their back, and it flopped. Don’t get me wrong, Florida has clearly become Mecca for Christian nationalism, and we should absolutely look at how that happened, but most places that shit doesn’t sell. We also have gas prices trending down, Biden's approval rating trending up, student loan forgiveness, Republicans being generally crazy election-deniers, banning abortion, stonewalling on gun control despite a slue of mass shootings. I'd say those are bigger reasons why Republicans didn't clean house as opposed to a rejection of the anti-woke culture wars issues. Mostly because I still think the latter are winning issues for the Republicans. | ||
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Small_Technician_19
5 Posts
On November 09 2022 17:40 Liquid`Drone wrote: Ya, I think so far, today has been reasonably good for Democrats, very bad for Trump, and very good for Desantis As a half joke, its pretty amazing that Joe Biden somehow managed to Mr. Magoo himself into this situation. His fundamentals would normally sink incumbent political parties...but the opposite happened. Outside of New York being a huge cluster, I don't think Democrats could have expected a better outcome: any Republican house majority is super slim and unworkable because 40~ Reps are not living in reality, the Democrats might still hold the Senate, and Zoomers are actually showing some signs of political life as opposed to millennials who never participate or vote. The DeSantis situation is tricky. On paper, Trump is a loser and DeSantis smashed the Democrats in Florida. But he's still incredibly fragile and he has been sending out trial balloons that he isn't interested in 2024. Frequently online college-educated conservatives love DeSantis but he has national problems and his brand of politics probably only works in Florida because of the huge demographic shifts that have been occurring in the state and actual malpractice of the state's Democrats. Trump might look like a loser in 2022 but Trump has the confidence of an insane New Yorker subway preacher, still has a not-insignificant control of the Republicans base, and has no loyalty to the Republican Party. He would maul DeSantis in a presidential primary. DeSantis needs Trump dead or invalid, which is probably why he'll punt 2024 and aim for 2028. Trump's already hinting he's got shit aimed at DeSantis if DeSantis threatens him, he's already hinted he knows DeSantis has had an extramarital affair or something ridiculous. The other problem is that Florida is increasingly a huge outlier of a state:
DeSantis using Florida as Ground Zero for Republican culture warring is great for a state with a large socialist-phobic and aged population. But I think its a problem assuming his brand of politics translates to other states. The Midwest migration is probably a good reason why the Midwest has gone surprisingly decent for the Democrats despite the awful fundamentals. Minnesota has a trifecta and Michigan might just end up with one too. | ||
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FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Netherlands30545 Posts
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pmh
1351 Posts
Has Musk,s call on twitter to vote republican worked in favor of the republicans or against them. I am leaning towards the later though the effect is probably neglible. | ||
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L_Master
United States8017 Posts
On November 09 2022 16:00 ChristianS wrote: It’s a little early to be narrative-setting, but if we’re picking where to look for answers after this election: how did Republicans not clean house? You’ve repeatedly pointed out inflation, and gas prices, and Biden’s approval rating, and the longstanding historical trend for out-party gains in midterms. Funny you bring up the Tea Party, because last time you guys were here was 2010. How’s tonight looking by comparison? My point isn’t to gloat, you’ll still probably get both houses. My point is that guys like DeSantis got to decide what your party was gonna run on this cycle, and what did they pick? CRT. Trans panic. Culture war, all day every day. Republicans brought that message all over the country, with just about every conceivable wind at their back, and it flopped. Don’t get me wrong, Florida has clearly become Mecca for Christian nationalism, and we should absolutely look at how that happened, but most places that shit doesn’t sell. 1) Low conservative voter turnout 2) Racial admixture 3) GenZ strong woke Fwiw, trans panic is dumb. The obvious ideal optimum for that is everybody shrugs and says "oh your trans. Okay" and pays about as much attention as we would to the sun rising the morning or as we would if you said "hey I'm a girl$ The (local) protected and elevated status in certain groups isn't ideal, but given the overall awful treatment that trans people experience, I don't think it's bad. You're mostly going to get treated way worse as trans (especially FtM), which is rather regrettable. CRT, on the other hand is very problematic | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
Waiting for those Democratic doomsayers to start rationalizing, particularly media pundits. | ||
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gobbledydook
Australia2593 Posts
On November 09 2022 23:06 JimmiC wrote: Like the actual CRT that is a university option? Or the CRT desantis rails against, which is basically a boogy man of anything ultra right people fear? I think this is a good explanation of the controversy surrounding critical race theory. https://www.edweek.org/leadership/what-is-critical-race-theory-and-why-is-it-under-attack/2021/05 In essence the Democrats and Republicans are talking past each other. The Republicans fundamentally oppose the beliefs that underpin critical race theory. The Democrats support those beliefs. Critical race theory in the school teaching context is ultimately a convenient namesake for what could be more accurately called racial equity. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland23785 Posts
On November 09 2022 20:57 BlackJack wrote: We also have gas prices trending down, Biden's approval rating trending up, student loan forgiveness, Republicans being generally crazy election-deniers, banning abortion, stonewalling on gun control despite a slue of mass shootings. I'd say those are bigger reasons why Republicans didn't clean house as opposed to a rejection of the anti-woke culture wars issues. Mostly because I still think the latter are winning issues for the Republicans. They may play relatively well, but they tend to be the thin end of the crazy wedge. They’re like the two channels you may really want to purchase, bundled in a package with 50 others you have no interest in, or actively dislike. | ||
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pmh
1351 Posts
On November 09 2022 21:13 Small_Technician_19 wrote: As a half joke, its pretty amazing that Joe Biden somehow managed to Mr. Magoo himself into this situation. His fundamentals would normally sink incumbent political parties...but the opposite happened. Outside of New York being a huge cluster, I don't think Democrats could have expected a better outcome: any Republican house majority is super slim and unworkable because 40~ Reps are not living in reality, the Democrats might still hold the Senate, and Zoomers are actually showing some signs of political life as opposed to millennials who never participate or vote. The DeSantis situation is tricky. On paper, Trump is a loser and DeSantis smashed the Democrats in Florida. But he's still incredibly fragile and he has been sending out trial balloons that he isn't interested in 2024. Frequently online college-educated conservatives love DeSantis but he has national problems and his brand of politics probably only works in Florida because of the huge demographic shifts that have been occurring in the state and actual malpractice of the state's Democrats. Trump might look like a loser in 2022 but Trump has the confidence of an insane New Yorker subway preacher, still has a not-insignificant control of the Republicans base, and has no loyalty to the Republican Party. He would maul DeSantis in a presidential primary. DeSantis needs Trump dead or invalid, which is probably why he'll punt 2024 and aim for 2028. Trump's already hinting he's got shit aimed at DeSantis if DeSantis threatens him, he's already hinted he knows DeSantis has had an extramarital affair or something ridiculous. The other problem is that Florida is increasingly a huge outlier of a state:
DeSantis using Florida as Ground Zero for Republican culture warring is great for a state with a large socialist-phobic and aged population. But I think its a problem assuming his brand of politics translates to other states. The Midwest migration is probably a good reason why the Midwest has gone surprisingly decent for the Democrats despite the awful fundamentals. Minnesota has a trifecta and Michigan might just end up with one too. Pretty much this. Florida is very unique indeed and what works in florida wont neccessarily translate to the national level. | ||
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pmh
1351 Posts
Foreign policy has been a succes from the US point of vieuw. Ukraine seems to be doing well in the conflict and it has not escelated further. Though foreign policy generally plays a limited role in US elections. Other issues like beeing against woke-ism are a bit of a luxery. Those are things that people start to worry about when they are not worrying about their ability to cover basic expenses. Which could also explain why it does work well in florida,a rather large group of aged and retired people who no longer have to worry about buying a home and such. These where very interesting elections. Maybe the drift towards the right end of the spectrum has reached its limit and things are starting to go back to the mean. -Doomsaying pundits in democratic oriented media. I havent seen enough coverage to know if this was a thing. But i can imagine there beeing some motivation for it,hedging. By beeing rather negative beforehand (for which there was at least some argument) they could present virtually any outcome as a good result? Fetterman is a boss. A very strong candidate. | ||
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ChristianS
United States3187 Posts
On November 09 2022 20:57 BlackJack wrote: We also have gas prices trending down, Biden's approval rating trending up, student loan forgiveness, Republicans being generally crazy election-deniers, banning abortion, stonewalling on gun control despite a slue of mass shootings. I'd say those are bigger reasons why Republicans didn't clean house as opposed to a rejection of the anti-woke culture wars issues. Mostly because I still think the latter are winning issues for the Republicans. Are we supposed to think voters respond to gas price trendline rather than the actual number? That’s not rhetorical, I’m genuinely asking. Gas prices, inflation, and the economy are canonically some of the most important factors on voter behavior, but the mechanism puzzles me a little. Like, NYT ran a poll of some battleground congressional districts a few weeks back, and the numbers were surprisingly strong for Democrats compared to the last NYT national poll. Nate Cohn was tweeting about it, and somebody asked if that might reflect movement toward Dems in that time, to which he replied something like “yeah maybe, gas prices have gone down a bit since then.” I get the idea that people would vote based on their sense of financial well-being. But who is driving past a gas station and seeing the price, pulling over, scraping of their bumper sticker, and slapping on the other candidate’s? Who is actually looking at a chart of gas prices and saying “well it’s down 20 cents, guess I’m going D after all”? I mean I’m skeptical of your explanations because I know you *personally* care a lot about anti-woke culture war issues. That and talking about covid seem like your biggest motivators, at least when you’re posting on this site. But it seems to me that if Republicans spend an entire election cycle yelling about CRT and “groomers” at every opportunity, and passing policies accordingly, at the end of which they significantly underperform the fundamentals in the next election, that’s pretty good evidence voters don’t give a shit. And why should they? They’re mostly made up issues they don’t actually affect the average person’s life very much. | ||
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L_Master
United States8017 Posts
On November 09 2022 23:06 JimmiC wrote: Like the actual CRT that is a university option? Or the CRT desantis rails against, which is basically a boogy man of anything ultra right people fear? Both. Like sure, the right rolls some (alot) of garbage in there that doesn't belong and does indeed use it as a catchall phrase, but the general woke ideology, and especially it's tactics of deceit, are direct descendents of formal academic CRT which is just a descendent of Derrida/Focault. | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
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He's a Tea Party type alright. Just again, I guess the word "needlessly" is doing some heavy lifting. but at at the end of tonight's consideration, we ought to think about how he managed to win by so much. Florida is becoming more red, but he did like 15 points better than Trump in 2020. he's convincing someone, or lots of someones. 
