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Would I be correct in supposing that the large swing (since the previous election) in left-leaning voters from NDP back to the Liberals is largely related to Trudeau Junior becoming the new (well not new NOW) leader for the Liberals and the popular Jack Layton passing away or is there a lot more to it than that?
On April 22 2015 02:54 Ben... wrote:
They seem to be running the country purely on ideology at this point, and when actual polls indicate something they are doing is unpopular they hand wave those polls away and produce their own polls saying their view is popular, often going as far as saying "the vast majority of Canadians support it" when talking about their policies when the publicly available polls on issues indicate otherwise.
Just a side note, this is definitely happening in at least one other country with a "conservative"-type government.
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Canada11350 Posts
Would I be correct in supposing that the large swing (since the previous election) in left-leaning voters from NDP back to the Liberals is largely related to Trudeau Junior becoming the new (well not new NOW) leader for the Liberals and the popular Jack Layton passing away or is there a lot more to it than that?
It might be a bit of both. Trudeau Jr has been heir apparent for awhile (must be in the east (Ontario) though because the West hated Trudeau senior.) To me, it seems like he was biding his time to jump into the right election after the Conservative momentum had waned. And Jack Layton was amazing for the NDP and the NDP knew it. They advertised Layton as much as they did their local candidate out here in the west.
But it's too bad, because of all the leaders, I rather like Mulcair. He isn't as flashy as Layton, but I've like what he's had to say. I've been rather upset with Conservative policies and decisions in the last year or so and I am leaning heavily to not voting for a right of centre party for the first time in my life. I'm hoping losing power will shake things up and they'll come back with better policies that I can vote for. But I can't vote for Trudeau. I see nothing there that Mulcair doesn't say and do better.
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On April 22 2015 03:03 Fuchsteufelswild wrote:
Would I be correct in supposing that the large swing (since the previous election) in left-leaning voters from NDP back to the Liberals is largely related to Trudeau Junior becoming the new (well not new NOW) leader for the Liberals and the popular Jack Layton passing away or is there a lot more to it than that?
Yeah, that sounds more or less accurate. Trudeau was massively popular when he first became the new Liberal leader. His popularity is definitely starting to erode, partly to the benefit of both the Conservatives but also to the NDP.
And yes, losing Jack Layton was a huge hit for the NDP (though Mulcair seems to be making gains lately. He's topped the leadership polls a couple times now recently and the NDP appears to be making some gains in polls). Jack Layton was definitely a very popular man. He seemed far more down-to-earth than most other politicians and he managed to be popular basically everywhere, rather than just in Quebec and the Maritimes or just in the West.
As a fun side story. On a school trip to Ottawa back 5-6 years ago, when we visited the Parliament building, Jack Layton was the only politician who took the time to visit with us. He talked to us as a class and then thanked us individually for visiting and talked to students for probably 20 minutes or so. This wasn't organized or anything. He was just walking by and stopped and chatted.
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Trudeau added a lot of fresh blood to the Liberal Party which was waning in popularity. As the political heir of Pierre he represents the hopes and dreams of the Liberal Party to recover from that last federal election which devastated them. He attracts the youth age group, immigrants and generally people who want a break from the conservatism of Harper. Though I feel the honeymoon stage has passed and as he makes compromises and some unsavory choices like the Eve Adams issue people see that he's just another politician and won't revolutionize anything. Personally I like Mulclair, he stands for what Canada should be about and doesn't rely on his personality to speak of himself, he uses his words and actions instead.
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On April 22 2015 03:39 Falling wrote:
(must be in the east (Ontario) though because the West hated Trudeau senior.)
you are over-simplifying here. your blanket statement is incorrect.
in 68 Trudeau's Liberals won 28 seats west of Ontario.
Stanfield's Conservatives .. 26.
in that election the Conservatives had 25 maritime seats to the liberals 5.
people in "the west" somehow like to lump everyone east of Kenora together 
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I'm a little lost here maybe it's because I'm not an expert. It's a balanced budget, but how is it a balanced budget if they have to dip into the contingency fund?
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On April 22 2015 07:52 soul55555 wrote:
I'm a little lost here maybe it's because I'm not an expert. It's a balanced budget, but how is it a balanced budget if they have to dip into the contingency fund?
probably under the assumption that oil would go up
in other news, TFSA limits are now 10K effective Jan 1 2015 and no longer indexed.
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How is Harper perceived in western Canada? I know he's hated in Quebec and I expect NDP to win most of the seats in our province, but that wouldn't mean much if the rest of the country doesn't hate him as much.
So what are your hopes for the election and what do you think will actually happen?
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On April 22 2015 08:20 Rizare wrote:
How is Harper perceived in western Canada? I know he's hated in Quebec and I expect NDP to win most of the seats in our province, but that wouldn't mean much if the rest of the country doesn't hate him as much.
So what are your hopes for the election and what do you think will actually happen?
Can't speak for the west coast, but at least in the prairies, the rural population is a good chunk of the Conservative base. Just look at the 2011 post-election results. Cities are usually a bit more split, sometimes leaning NDP or Liberal over Conservative. For example, Ralph Goodale from the Liberal Party has been the only non-Conservative MP from Saskatchewan this term. However, the ridings in the prairies are changing for this coming election (each riding around Saskatoon used to be partly city, partly rural so the rural vote would often tie or slightly overpower the city vote. The Conservative MPs that won last time did so by a very slim margin. In Alberta, more dedicated ridings for Edmonton and Calgary are being added. Given that for the Alberta provincial election, Edmonton polled at over 50% NDP support, I can see that support carrying to the federal level also) so that rural areas get their own MPs and the cities get their own. Can't say for sure but I can definitely see a scenario where NDP or Liberal candidates get elected to represent the cities.
Here's a map that shows the riding changes for this election. Note some of the changes in the prairies:
http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/map/pwt/pwt.html?lang=e&
Here's a map of the 2011 results:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2011#/media/File:Canada_2011_Federal_Election.svg
As for Harper himself, it's a similar story. I imagine he's more popular here (especially in Alberta) than out east.
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Canada11350 Posts
On April 22 2015 06:24 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2015 03:39 Falling wrote:
(must be in the east (Ontario) though because the West hated Trudeau senior.) you are over-simplifying here. your blanket statement is incorrect. in 68 Trudeau's Liberals won 28 seats west of Ontario. Stanfield's Conservatives .. 26. in that election the Conservatives had 25 maritime seats to the liberals 5. people in "the west" somehow like to lump everyone east of Kenora together
I am simplifying, but if you want specificity, they didn't hate him right away. Yes, BC voted sufficiently Liberal in 68 and there was a scattering in the other provinces. But it was after the first majority rule that you get the backlash in the west.
68
BC- 16 AB- 4 SK- 2 MB- 5
72
BC- 4 AB- 0 SK- 1 MB- 2
74
BC- 8 AB- 0 SK- 3 MB 2
79
BC- 1 AB- 0 SK-0 MB-2
80
BC-0 AB-0 SK-0 MB-2
Liberal popular vote also halves from 41% in BC in 68 to 22% in 80. Manitoba 41% to 28%. Alberta 35% to 22% and Sask was never that impressed moving from 27% to 24%.
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On April 22 2015 04:34 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Trudeau added a lot of fresh blood to the Liberal Party which was waning in popularity. As the political heir of Pierre he represents the hopes and dreams of the Liberal Party to recover from that last federal election which devastated them. He attracts the youth age group, immigrants and generally people who want a break from the conservatism of Harper. Though I feel the honeymoon stage has passed and as he makes compromises and some unsavory choices like the Eve Adams issue people see that he's just another politician and won't revolutionize anything. Personally I like Mulclair, he stands for what Canada should be about and doesn't rely on his personality to speak of himself, he uses his words and actions instead.
Never got why everyone says Trudeau attracts the youth age group. They guy is in his 40s.
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Canada11350 Posts
On April 22 2015 08:20 Rizare wrote:
How is Harper perceived in western Canada? I know he's hated in Quebec and I expect NDP to win most of the seats in our province, but that wouldn't mean much if the rest of the country doesn't hate him as much.
So what are your hopes for the election and what do you think will actually happen?
I honestly have no idea in BC. It could very well be the same as at the provincial level- polls say we want change, polls say NDP is going to win and then we go back to a Liberal government (which in that case I am ok with )
So I have no idea whether BC keeps the NDP-Conservative split, swings one way or the other or if Liberals can recover from close to a record low. Anecdotal, but Baby Boom generation and older, I usually hear good things about Harper. And it's rare to hear anything good about Harper amongst Millennials.
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On April 22 2015 15:42 Falling wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2015 08:20 Rizare wrote:
How is Harper perceived in western Canada? I know he's hated in Quebec and I expect NDP to win most of the seats in our province, but that wouldn't mean much if the rest of the country doesn't hate him as much.
So what are your hopes for the election and what do you think will actually happen? I honestly have no idea in BC. It could very well be the same as at the provincial level- polls say we want change, polls say NDP is going to win and then we go back to a Liberal government (which in that case I am ok with ) So I have no idea whether BC keeps the NDP-Conservative split, swings one way or the other or if Liberals can recover from close to a record low. Anecdotal, but Baby Boom generation and older, I usually hear good things about Harper. And it's rare to hear anything good about Harper amongst Millennials.
TFSA is the best thing they did.
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What is the chance of Harper being reelected again?
Those who ever had issues with his policies will need to be able to remobilze.. As I read the opinion polls, people are not so much outraged by Stephen Harper and the Conservatives as they are tired of them.
The same thing happened to Brian Mulroney at about the same stage. And Bush... if anyone remembers helpdesk software
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I'm from Alberta, and initially I was going 100% conservative once again, and after all that's happened in the last two years, I'm a bit more iffy, but at the end, I still think I'll go with the Harper government.
What I desire, is things in this country to operate efficiently. There is a reason why manufacturing is dead in Ontario, and why Canada isn't able to create anything beneficial to the rest of the world besides natural resources, which we are lucky to have.
I like that I'm rewarded for my own hard work, it's probably a more selfish environment than what it'd be under the liberals or NDP, but that way, the honest hard working people don't have to put up with so much bullshit. I like their view on ISIS as well. I like that they are making it more difficult to immigrate to Canada, so many people have been taking advantage of the loop holes.
As for what I don't like: I dislike how they all seem really christian, I don't know, but very often it feels like they are acting with christian traditions in mind, and as someone who is pro-choice and pro-LGBT, pro-prostitution, pro-bestiality, pro doing whatever people want to long as there are minimal impacts to other people, which a lot of this is... I just want them to stay out of my bedroom and family. That's a party I can't find anywhere - 50% republican 50% conservative economic policy, 30% conservative, 20% green, 50% liberal social policy, with complete religious freedoms, and laws not founded on Islam or Christianity.
Besides that, I think people have more person freedoms with the conservatives, but that means more places for things to go wrong. And for that reason, I don't mind the increased monitoring as much, although I think it's a bit over the top, although that might be because I'm acting in my self interest rather than societies. A higher allocation of funding into public services would make me happy, but I think that's more so due to our provincial government more than Harper.
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depending on how the conservatives deal with bill C-51 determines my vote in this election.
which is a cryin' shame because my local MP is awesome... and i'd prefer to just vote for her because she is so good. But, they gotta do a lot to change bill C-51 to get my vote.
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/how-c-51-will-undermine-canadas-business-climate-an-open-letter-from-60-canadian-business-leaders
On April 22 2015 15:18 Falling wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2015 06:24 JimmyJRaynor wrote:On April 22 2015 03:39 Falling wrote:
(must be in the east (Ontario) though because the West hated Trudeau senior.) you are over-simplifying here. your blanket statement is incorrect. in 68 Trudeau's Liberals won 28 seats west of Ontario. Stanfield's Conservatives .. 26. in that election the Conservatives had 25 maritime seats to the liberals 5. people in "the west" somehow like to lump everyone east of Kenora together I am simplifying, but if you want specificity, they didn't hate him right away. Yes, BC voted sufficiently Liberal in 68 and there was a scattering in the other provinces. But it was after the first majority rule that you get the backlash in the west. 68 BC- 16 AB- 4 SK- 2 MB- 5 72 BC- 4 AB- 0 SK- 1 MB- 2 74 BC- 8 AB- 0 SK- 3 MB 2 79 BC- 1 AB- 0 SK-0 MB-2 80 BC-0 AB-0 SK-0 MB-2 Liberal popular vote also halves from 41% in BC in 68 to 22% in 80. Manitoba 41% to 28%. Alberta 35% to 22% and Sask was never that impressed moving from 27% to 24%.
when Trudeau retired and Turner took over.
the UBC educated, anglophone,multiple election winner in Vancouver.....John Turner i'm talking about here.
basically the antithesis of Trudeau's background...
Liberal popularity in "The West" WENT DOWN.
so saying Trudeau was hated ... hmmm i don't know about that.
during the height of his power he may have been hated the way everyone hates whoever the current Prime Minister is hated.
he was disliked beceause he was not local...that is for certain...
but, "hated" ... based on Turner's led Liberals after Trudeau left.. i don't know about that.
as an aside, this whole "The West" and "The East" stuff is pretty meh.
The Jane/Finch corridor aint got nuttin to do with Gander Newfoundland...
and Alberta's free market mindset is completely different from the mentality in highest taxed jurisdiction in North America.
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Quick question.
I've lived in Canada when I was young, and got my citizenship at that time (still got the card as some kind of remembering in my wallet). I heard that if I do not remake my card fast I might have problem to make it again because politicians want to change the rules. Is it true ? Feel really weird to me that you have difficulties for such things. Are you not a citizen for your entire life ?
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On April 23 2015 00:12 WhiteDog wrote:
Quick question.
I've lived in Canada when I was young, and got my citizenship at that time (still got the card as some kind of remembering in my wallet). I heard that if I do not remake my card fast I might have problem to make it again because politicians want to change the rules. Is it true ? Feel really weird to me that you have difficulties for such things. Are you not a citizen for your entire life ?
last year a change was proposed to revoke the citizenship of dual citizens
either of these can get ur citizenship revoked
a) convicted of a terrorist act..
b) if you're in teh military of a country actively fighting canadian armed forces.
if you were born in canada and only a citizen of canada you are a citizen for life no matter what.
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On April 22 2015 21:01 FiWiFaKi wrote:
I'm from Alberta, and initially I was going 100% conservative once again, and after all that's happened in the last two years, I'm a bit more iffy, but at the end, I still think I'll go with the Harper government.
What I desire, is things in this country to operate efficiently. There is a reason why manufacturing is dead in Ontario, and why Canada isn't able to create anything beneficial to the rest of the world besides natural resources, which we are lucky to have.
I like that I'm rewarded for my own hard work, it's probably a more selfish environment than what it'd be under the liberals or NDP, but that way, the honest hard working people don't have to put up with so much bullshit. I like their view on ISIS as well. I like that they are making it more difficult to immigrate to Canada, so many people have been taking advantage of the loop holes.
As for what I don't like: I dislike how they all seem really christian, I don't know, but very often it feels like they are acting with christian traditions in mind, and as someone who is pro-choice and pro-LGBT, pro-prostitution, pro-bestiality, pro doing whatever people want to long as there are minimal impacts to other people, which a lot of this is... I just want them to stay out of my bedroom and family. That's a party I can't find anywhere - 50% republican 50% conservative economic policy, 30% conservative, 20% green, 50% liberal social policy, with complete religious freedoms, and laws not founded on Islam or Christianity.
Besides that, I think people have more person freedoms with the conservatives, but that means more places for things to go wrong. And for that reason, I don't mind the increased monitoring as much, although I think it's a bit over the top, although that might be because I'm acting in my self interest rather than societies. A higher allocation of funding into public services would make me happy, but I think that's more so due to our provincial government more than Harper.
Seems like you are a libertarian, welcome to the club
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EPT
