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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results.
Sure, but Greece when it was doing 'well' wasnt reforming itself either.
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On February 13 2015 11:05 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. Sure, but Greece when it was doing 'well' wasnt reforming itself either.
And now that is not doing well Greece, under the wise guidance of EU/IMF, is deforming its basic structures while keeping all the mold.
On February 13 2015 09:33 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
There's always interest on the loans. Greece is running a primary surplus but still has debt costs that push the budget into a minor deficit.
Btw the primary surplus is a joke. Basicly the previous government(+EU+IMF) postponed payments on many sectors plus some good old cooking so they can claim the so-called "success story" about greek economy.
Of course eurostat happily adopted the figures.
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There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed".
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Well... Greece Tax morale could also need a push.
But all else, yeah, the austerity is/was just stupid.
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He forgot to mention there's a non risk based leverage ratio
asel III introduced a minimum "leverage ratio". The leverage ratio was calculated by dividing Tier 1 capital by the bank's average total consolidated assets (not risk weighted)  4][5] The banks were expected to maintain a leverage ratio in excess of 3% under Basel III. In July 2013, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that the minimum Basel III leverage ratio would be 6% for 8 Systemically important financial institution (SIFI) banks and 5% for their insured bank holding companies.[6]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_III
His article is also hugely simplified risk weighting is pretty compex and there are a lot of rules.
http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs189.htm
His example is also wrong since banks can't just decide the risk weighting. here's an article on it that explains it.
http://www.goodwinprocter.com/Dodd-Frank/Publications/Newsletter Articles/Financial Services Articles/2012_09/25_01.aspx
On February 13 2015 16:33 WhiteDog wrote:
There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed".
That was one article you linked without any real evidence and we haven't heard about it since.
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(Bloomberg) -- German economic growth accelerated at the end of last year while France’s slowed, signaling that the euro-area recovery remained uneven as the European Central Bank prepared to pledge unlimited quantitative easing.
German gross domestic product surged 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter after expanding 0.1 percent in the previous three months, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. The French economy grew 0.1 percent after 0.3 percent in the July-September period. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted fourth-quarter growth of 0.3 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.
Seven years after the onset of the global economic crisis, the 19-nation euro area is still plagued by falling prices and high unemployment, while a showdown between Greece and its European partners over the country’s debt has rekindled the risk of a euro break up. A slump in oil prices is helping domestic demand and more stimulus is the pipeline from the QE plan by the ECB that has already weakened the euro.
“It’s not a story of ‘here comes the boom,’” said Nick Kounis, head of macro and financial-markets research at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “But we are starting to see signs of a more convincing recovery.”
The euro remained higher after the report and traded at $1.1428 at 9:41 a.m. Frankfurt time. The benchmark DAX index broke through 11,000 for the first time.
Euro-Area GDP
Euro-area GDP probably expanded 0.2 percent last quarter after growing at the same rate in the third, according to a separate survey. That report is due from the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg at 11 a.m. today. Italy and Portugal are scheduled to release national figures before then.
The Slovak economy grew 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter from a year ago, and the Dutch recorded an increase in GDP of 0.5 percent from the third quarter.
Spain, the euro-area’s fourth-largest economy, reported on Jan. 30 that its economy expanded at the fastest pace in seven years in the fourth quarter, with GDP rising 0.7 percent from the previous one.
“The German economy turned out to be strong in a difficult global economic environment, benefiting especially from a strong domestic demand,” Roderich Egeler, president of the national statistics office, said in Berlin on Jan. 15. At the time, the office said GDP increased a quarter of a percent in the fourth quarter and 1.5 percent in 2014.
Domestic Demand
On Friday, it said growth was driven by domestic demand, with exports and imports both rising strongly. Private consumption rose markedly in the fourth quarter, and investment developed positively, driven by a significant increase in construction output. A full data breakdown will be published on Feb. 24.
“Germany has retaken its role as economic growth engine in the euro area,” said Johannes Mayr, an economist at BayernLB in Munich. “High geopolitical uncertainty has hardly had any damping impact in the fourth quarter, although the result could be exaggerated somewhat due to unusually mild weather at the beginning of the winter.”
The Bundesbank said last month that the German economy has overcome the “weak phase” it hit early last year, with consumers benefiting from falling oil prices and rising salaries. Real wages rose 1.6 percent last year, the most since data collection started in 2008.
source
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On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results.
For arguments against clientelism, I could propose to you some 400 to 600-page books:
"Trust, the social virtues and the creation of prosperity"
"Political order and political decay"
Both by Francis Fukuyama.
There are probably even more around, but I haven't gotten around reading them yet. I can, however, link you to a paper about clientelism and how it basically makes people governed by it incredibly dependent on the state (both for jobs and services) while gutting entrepreneurialism: https://www.academia.edu/1585129/Greek_Democracy_in_Transition_Indications_of_a_Beginning_Functional_Disentanglement_of_Clientelism_and_Parliamentarism (haven't finished reading this one yet myself)
I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate.
An interesting article with a different view on Syriza's victory and subsequent teaming-up with a right wing party:
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-syriza-tsipras-nationalism-by-pavlos-eleftheriadis-2015-02
A quote:
Rather than criticizing austerity as a well-meant policy error, [Tsipras] condemns it as an assault on Greece, a neo-colonial imposition, or a hostile ideological project gone wrong. His language is one of resistance to conquest.
Thus, it is no accident that Tsipras chose the far-right Independent Greeks party as his coalition partner. Both parties speak the same language – that of virulent nationalism – used by Europe's enemies, whether in Dresden or Moscow.
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Zurich15365 Posts
To be fair, Tsipras used the mentioned hostile language mostly domestically and strikes much more reasonable tunes in dealings internationally.
At this point I am about as confused what the goal of the Tsipras administration really is as I was 3 weeks ago. Is it as simple as the goal was an "alliance" of Southern member states against Europe North, which was speculated at a number of times? They MUST have known that this was going to fail, or at least not going to happen within days of the Greek elections.
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On February 13 2015 20:53 zatic wrote:
To be fair, Tsipras used the mentioned hostile language mostly domestically and strikes much more reasonable tunes in dealings internationally.
At this point I am about as confused what the goal of the Tsipras administration really is as I was 3 weeks ago. Is it as simple as the goal was an "alliance" of Southern member states against Europe North, which was speculated at a number of times? They MUST have known that this was going to fail, or at least not going to happen within days of the Greek elections.
The problem is that Greeks themselves actually believe that rethoric, which conveniently distracts them from the country's many domestic issues. Scapegoating is the best way to fool yourself into thinking the cause of your problems is anyone's except your own fault. It's also incredibly useful politically, since you can deflect the blame for failed policy to other parties (such as the "banks", "oligarchs" or Germany).
Tsipras demanding World War 2 reparations from Germany is hilarious and sad at the same time. First of all, they are never going to get it (and why would they, we're 2015, not 194x), and second of all, if they did get it, it would just be highly temporary symptom relief. In the same vein, he could also try to receive damages from Turkey for the harm done to Greece during Ottoman rule, but that would probably leave Turkey open to ask reparations for the damage done to Asia Minor by Alexander the Great and his army in the 4th century B.C. (although technically they could in that case also ask reparations to Macedonia for conquering them in 334 B.C.).
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Furthermore, there actually were treaties regarding the reparations after WWII. And the BRD has paid exactly as much as was demanded in these treaties. Part of these treaties was that no country could demand any additional reparations afterwards.
The main point of contention here is probably that not everyone got as much as they wanted, mostly due to influence of the US who wanted to have the BRD as a frontline state against communism, and thus used their bargaining power to greatly reduce the amount of reparations demanded. There was also the whole argument that excessive reparations after Versailles had a huge part in starting the whole mess in the first place.
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Zurich15365 Posts
I don't take the war reparation claims seriously and would file them too under campaign loud mouthing.
That still leaves open the question what Tsipras really wants right now.
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On February 13 2015 20:36 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. For arguments against clientelism, I could propose to you some 400 to 600-page books: "Trust, the social virtues and the creation of prosperity" "Political order and political decay" Both by Francis Fukuyama. There are probably even more around, but I haven't gotten around reading them yet. I can, however, link you to a paper about clientelism and how it basically makes people governed by it incredibly dependent on the state (both for jobs and services) while gutting entrepreneurialism: https://www.academia.edu/1585129/Greek_Democracy_in_Transition_Indications_of_a_Beginning_Functional_Disentanglement_of_Clientelism_and_Parliamentarism (haven't finished reading this one yet myself) I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate. An interesting article with a different view on Syriza's victory and subsequent teaming-up with a right wing party: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-syriza-tsipras-nationalism-by-pavlos-eleftheriadis-2015-02A quote: Show nested quote +
Rather than criticizing austerity as a well-meant policy error, [Tsipras] condemns it as an assault on Greece, a neo-colonial imposition, or a hostile ideological project gone wrong. His language is one of resistance to conquest.
Thus, it is no accident that Tsipras chose the far-right Independent Greeks party as his coalition partner. Both parties speak the same language – that of virulent nationalism – used by Europe's enemies, whether in Dresden or Moscow.
You are quoting me two book wrote by a guy who believe history would come to an end thanks to the domination of liberalism ?
Anyway, you are not clear on the word reform, as alwas with that kind of term. If reforming is facing corruption, making sure people actually pay their tax, that's great, but note that you need money to do that (yes, the state need money to actually exist, and time - economist even take those costs into consideration when they evaluate the optimal level of taxation).
But if behind reform you are referring to "structural" reform in the economy of the country, then it has been proven, by history, that those kind of reform always fail to achieve their gals, which is growth and employment.
"I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate." Your belief are not really relevant to what a country such a greece should do. Lowering the state has been done, to an unhealthy amount : maybe look at reality ? Do you think it is a success ?
It is really basic economy - when you fire people they don't consume. It's ok to push wage down if you reinvest what you have gained, or lay off some high wage people because they are useless as fuc most of the time (who tend to save more - the consumption function in keynesian economics) but when you massively lay off low wages, it instantly hit back in a decrease in consumption, and consumption represent a high % of a country GDP. It's just logic, and if you ask me it is more logic than to oppose the private and the public like every unknown economist is doing (the economy is, in fact, a circuit).
Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 16:33 WhiteDog wrote:
There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed". That was one article you linked without any real evidence and we haven't heard about it since.
Without any real evidence... an article from the FT about current investigation on the chief of ELSTAT is nothing you're right.
The head of Elstat, Greece’s new independent statistics agency, faces an official criminal investigation for allegedly inflating the scale of the country’s fiscal crisis and acting against the Greek national interest.
Andreas Georgiou, who worked at the International Monetary Fund for 20 years, was appointed in 2010 by agreement with the fund and the European Commission to clean up Greek statistics after years of official fudging by the finance ministry.[...]
The prosecutor cites a claim by professor Zoe Georganta, a senior statistician who was sacked along with other members of Elstat’s board by Evangelos Venizelos, the finance minister, earlier this year. According to Ms Georganta, the 2009 deficit was exaggerated by Elstat “so it would become larger than that of Ireland and Greece would be forced to adopt painful austerity measures”.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82b15932-18fe-11e1-92d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RYkArt5I
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On February 13 2015 20:53 zatic wrote:
To be fair, Tsipras used the mentioned hostile language mostly domestically and strikes much more reasonable tunes in dealings internationally.
At this point I am about as confused what the goal of the Tsipras administration really is as I was 3 weeks ago. Is it as simple as the goal was an "alliance" of Southern member states against Europe North, which was speculated at a number of times? They MUST have known that this was going to fail, or at least not going to happen within days of the Greek elections.
The goal would be to force the Germans' hand, either in accepting greater fiscal consolidation within the EU (that is, risk sharing + tighter controls over budgets), alongside a fiscal transfer mechanism of some sort (Tsipras says European Investment Bank, whether bureaucrats successfully implement an investment plan is anyone's guess) or simply abandon the euro project and stop kicking the can down the road.
The gambit would be that a Grexit would accelerate the process by which others view the euro situation as untenable in the longterm and that the Germans would prefer the (costly to them) fix instead of the (catastrophic to them, according to Tsipras) alternative. To that end he has masterfully played his cards domestically, consolidating a (very, very long) series of failed policies (and severely off target projections) implemented by the previous governments and troika.
Siphoning off money from the real economy in order to pay off interest towards an ever increasing debt (and it is ever increasing because money is siphoned off from the real economy, waiting for private investments to magically start to pour in is fool's gold) is completely pointless, according to Tsipras (and common sense, I would say). According to austerity advocates, however, the turnaround is right around the corner - assuming, again, that the punishment angle is not real - if it is real our nation should gtfo running on all fours if need be.
That said, Tsipras isn't being unreasonable with his actual demands. A 1.5% primary surplus instead of 3% (this year) and 4.5%+ the next few years isn't exactly a return to profligate ways. And his party is the only party not linked to special interests, clientelism etc as they have never governed before so there's at least some small hope that graft, corruption etc will be tackled, or at least that the attempt will be made (reminder, previous governments led by the people Merkel favors received the Lagarde list and... left it to rot, as the names mentioned in the list were people tied to them - in the case of former FinMin Papakonstantinou actual relatives, he's the only one being prosecuted right now). It is curious that these people were derided as 'communists', 'radical leftists' and so on before even being given a chance to table their case.
@RvB, correct about the minimum leverage ratio, Varoufakis does gloss over that simply mentioning that banks have been very good at circumventing regulations in the past. That said, 3%?!? Better than before but still pretty horrible, no? The Americans are talking about 6% ratios for their big banks -_- . What happens when a bank is heavily investing into a sovereign, assuming it is risk-free (thus not triggering the 7% risk weighted ratio) and simply toeing the line at this 3% leverage ratio, and the sovereign defaults?
About the simplicity of the explanations, of course, it is a blog post after all. The leeway that banks have internally in calculating risk remains real, however. And they've been exceptionally good at creating extremely complicated financial instruments that might escape regulatory authorities' scrutiny, so...
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the greek government lost all of my sympathy when they made stupid WW2 reparation claims. At this point I hope that Merkel leaves them out to die.
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On February 14 2015 01:52 Skilledblob wrote:
the greek government lost all of my sympathy when they made stupid WW2 reparation claims. At this point I hope that Merkel leaves them out to die.
Why because WW2 didn't happen ?
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No, because their was an agreement made in 1953 in London where the debt was legally settled. It's also all the caricatures more than the debt discussion. A day ago or so they again published a caricature of Schäuble turning Greek people into soap or something in their party newspaper. People here are pretty sensitive when it comes to instrumentalizing WW II history. It's really below the belt at this point.
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On February 14 2015 01:59 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 01:52 Skilledblob wrote:
the greek government lost all of my sympathy when they made stupid WW2 reparation claims. At this point I hope that Merkel leaves them out to die. Why because WW2 didn't happen ?
Because they don't want to pay of course.
When other countries have to pay then it's fine. But when Germany has to pay, it's a big nono.
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On February 14 2015 02:01 Nyxisto wrote:
No, because their was an agreement made in 1953 in London where the debt was legally settled.
Not this one. There's plenty of talk around the debt, part of it is legally settled, but nothing in the 1953 London treaty (that does not legally settle the debt but only postpone it until a "peace treaty" never signed) refers to the forced loan on the Greek central bank.
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On February 14 2015 02:04 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 02:01 Nyxisto wrote:
No, because their was an agreement made in 1953 in London where the debt was legally settled. Not this one.
All war reparations have been settled in 1953 and if not then, then definitely in 1990 with the 4+2 treaty (which Greece also accepted at that time). The one thing that is left is a loan that was forced onto Greece by the Nazis but that is definitely less money than what they're demanding.
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On February 14 2015 02:12 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 02:04 WhiteDog wrote:On February 14 2015 02:01 Nyxisto wrote:
No, because their was an agreement made in 1953 in London where the debt was legally settled. Not this one. All war reparations have been settled in 1953 and if not then, then definitely in 1990 with the 4+2 treaty (which Greece also accepted at that time). The one thing that is left is a loan that was forced onto Greece by the Nazis but that is definitely less money than what they're demanding.
It's 8.25 billion euros according to the bundestag (in 2012) and 11 according to the greek central bank. That's enough to pay the entirety of Siriza's program (6 billion).
On February 14 2015 02:01 Nyxisto wrote:
No, because their was an agreement made in 1953 in London where the debt was legally settled. It's also all the caricatures more than the debt discussion. A day ago or so they again published a caricature of Schäuble turning Greek people into soap or something in their party newspaper. People here are pretty sensitive when it comes to instrumentalizing WW II history. It's really below the belt at this point.
I'm tired of german hypocrisy. Every comment in German's newspaper related to Greece is insulting. In fact Germany has been publicly insulting most european countries - how many doubtful comments on France have I not seen ? Maybe don't insult others if you don't want others to insult you. Respect goes both ways.
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EPT
