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On February 14 2015 01:09 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 20:36 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. For arguments against clientelism, I could propose to you some 400 to 600-page books: "Trust, the social virtues and the creation of prosperity" "Political order and political decay" Both by Francis Fukuyama. There are probably even more around, but I haven't gotten around reading them yet. I can, however, link you to a paper about clientelism and how it basically makes people governed by it incredibly dependent on the state (both for jobs and services) while gutting entrepreneurialism: https://www.academia.edu/1585129/Greek_Democracy_in_Transition_Indications_of_a_Beginning_Functional_Disentanglement_of_Clientelism_and_Parliamentarism (haven't finished reading this one yet myself) I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate. An interesting article with a different view on Syriza's victory and subsequent teaming-up with a right wing party: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-syriza-tsipras-nationalism-by-pavlos-eleftheriadis-2015-02A quote:
Rather than criticizing austerity as a well-meant policy error, [Tsipras] condemns it as an assault on Greece, a neo-colonial imposition, or a hostile ideological project gone wrong. His language is one of resistance to conquest.
Thus, it is no accident that Tsipras chose the far-right Independent Greeks party as his coalition partner. Both parties speak the same language – that of virulent nationalism – used by Europe's enemies, whether in Dresden or Moscow.
You are quoting me two book wrote by a guy who believe history would come to an end thanks to the domination of liberalism ? Anyway, you are not clear on the word reform, as alwas with that kind of term. If reforming is facing corruption, making sure people actually pay their tax, that's great, but note that you need money to do that (yes, the state need money to actually exist, and time - economist even take those costs into consideration when they evaluate the optimal level of taxation). But if behind reform you are referring to "structural" reform in the economy of the country, then it has been proven, by history, that those kind of reform always fail to achieve their gals, which is growth and employment. "I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate." Your belief are not really relevant to what a country such a greece should do. Lowering the state has been done, to an unhealthy amount : maybe look at reality ? Do you think it is a success ? It is really basic economy - when you fire people they don't consume. It's ok to push wage down if you reinvest what you have gained, or lay off some high wage people because they are useless as fuc most of the time (who tend to save more - the consumption function in keynesian economics) but when you massively lay off low wages, it instantly hit back in a decrease in consumption, and consumption represent a high % of a country GDP. It's just logic, and if you ask me it is more logic than to oppose the private and the public like every unknown economist is doing (the economy is, in fact, a circuit). Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 16:33 WhiteDog wrote:
There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed". That was one article you linked without any real evidence and we haven't heard about it since. Without any real evidence... an article from the FT about current investigation on the chief of ELSTAT is nothing you're right. Show nested quote +The head of Elstat, Greece’s new independent statistics agency, faces an official criminal investigation for allegedly inflating the scale of the country’s fiscal crisis and acting against the Greek national interest.
Andreas Georgiou, who worked at the International Monetary Fund for 20 years, was appointed in 2010 by agreement with the fund and the European Commission to clean up Greek statistics after years of official fudging by the finance ministry.[...]
The prosecutor cites a claim by professor Zoe Georganta, a senior statistician who was sacked along with other members of Elstat’s board by Evangelos Venizelos, the finance minister, earlier this year. According to Ms Georganta, the 2009 deficit was exaggerated by Elstat “so it would become larger than that of Ireland and Greece would be forced to adopt painful austerity measures”. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82b15932-18fe-11e1-92d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RYkArt5I
In terms of rebuttals, you'll need to do a little better than "Fukuyama once wrote a controversial theory a lot of people rejected so everything he says can be ignored". Apart from the fact that he himself already admitted that his theory of "the end of history" was not his best, his last two books got a lot of acclaim, and are really good. You don't have to necessarily agree with everything he says or claims in order to actually learn something from his research.
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On February 14 2015 03:17 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 01:09 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 20:36 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. For arguments against clientelism, I could propose to you some 400 to 600-page books: "Trust, the social virtues and the creation of prosperity" "Political order and political decay" Both by Francis Fukuyama. There are probably even more around, but I haven't gotten around reading them yet. I can, however, link you to a paper about clientelism and how it basically makes people governed by it incredibly dependent on the state (both for jobs and services) while gutting entrepreneurialism: https://www.academia.edu/1585129/Greek_Democracy_in_Transition_Indications_of_a_Beginning_Functional_Disentanglement_of_Clientelism_and_Parliamentarism (haven't finished reading this one yet myself) I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate. An interesting article with a different view on Syriza's victory and subsequent teaming-up with a right wing party: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-syriza-tsipras-nationalism-by-pavlos-eleftheriadis-2015-02A quote:
Rather than criticizing austerity as a well-meant policy error, [Tsipras] condemns it as an assault on Greece, a neo-colonial imposition, or a hostile ideological project gone wrong. His language is one of resistance to conquest.
Thus, it is no accident that Tsipras chose the far-right Independent Greeks party as his coalition partner. Both parties speak the same language – that of virulent nationalism – used by Europe's enemies, whether in Dresden or Moscow.
You are quoting me two book wrote by a guy who believe history would come to an end thanks to the domination of liberalism ? Anyway, you are not clear on the word reform, as alwas with that kind of term. If reforming is facing corruption, making sure people actually pay their tax, that's great, but note that you need money to do that (yes, the state need money to actually exist, and time - economist even take those costs into consideration when they evaluate the optimal level of taxation). But if behind reform you are referring to "structural" reform in the economy of the country, then it has been proven, by history, that those kind of reform always fail to achieve their gals, which is growth and employment. "I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate." Your belief are not really relevant to what a country such a greece should do. Lowering the state has been done, to an unhealthy amount : maybe look at reality ? Do you think it is a success ? It is really basic economy - when you fire people they don't consume. It's ok to push wage down if you reinvest what you have gained, or lay off some high wage people because they are useless as fuc most of the time (who tend to save more - the consumption function in keynesian economics) but when you massively lay off low wages, it instantly hit back in a decrease in consumption, and consumption represent a high % of a country GDP. It's just logic, and if you ask me it is more logic than to oppose the private and the public like every unknown economist is doing (the economy is, in fact, a circuit). On February 13 2015 16:33 WhiteDog wrote:
There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed". That was one article you linked without any real evidence and we haven't heard about it since. Without any real evidence... an article from the FT about current investigation on the chief of ELSTAT is nothing you're right. The head of Elstat, Greece’s new independent statistics agency, faces an official criminal investigation for allegedly inflating the scale of the country’s fiscal crisis and acting against the Greek national interest.
Andreas Georgiou, who worked at the International Monetary Fund for 20 years, was appointed in 2010 by agreement with the fund and the European Commission to clean up Greek statistics after years of official fudging by the finance ministry.[...]
The prosecutor cites a claim by professor Zoe Georganta, a senior statistician who was sacked along with other members of Elstat’s board by Evangelos Venizelos, the finance minister, earlier this year. According to Ms Georganta, the 2009 deficit was exaggerated by Elstat “so it would become larger than that of Ireland and Greece would be forced to adopt painful austerity measures”. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82b15932-18fe-11e1-92d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RYkArt5I In terms of rebuttals, you'll need to do a little better than "Fukuyama once wrote a controversial theory a lot of people rejected so everything he says can be ignored". Apart from the fact that he himself already admitted that his theory of "the end of history" was not his best, his last two books got a lot of acclaim, and are really good. You don't have to necessarily agree with everything he says or claims in order to actually learn something from his research.
My rebuttal is pretty clear : Fukuyama is a useless neocon / free marketist who don't know shit about what he is talking about.
What is happening in Greece has been foretold by all Keynesian economists it's not even up to discussion : you cannot lay off more than 10 % of the workforce (from 7.7 % unemployment to 25 %) and believe that this will lead to growth, it's just not how it work. And I don't need to argue with Fukuyama to prove that point.
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On February 14 2015 03:10 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:01 Toadesstern wrote:
So it's perfectly fine to insult Germany, depict them as Nazis, including both the general public as well as our politicians, literally compare austerity to all the horrible thigns the nazi regime has done. I get that people can complain, think it's stupid and all that but that's out of line for us as well while telling us to get a grip of ourselves.
At the same time you're yelling about how Bild (lol) needs to stop insulting Greece?
And because you answered to the one above: Yes Schäuble and Merkle aren't writing for BILD but you can see a difference in what Merkel said and what BILD said up there. That's the point here. Did you ever read anything not made by a german on the austerity program ? Do you know the cost of the austerity program in human life ? Increase in diseases long forgotten, increase in suicide, increase in cancer and such ? You think when Europe ask Greece to decrease its deficit it does not have DIRECT consequence on the population ? That they just take one less month in vacation ? lol And who's talking about BILD only ? You are. Do you mean that Merkel comments are not insulting and borderline racist ? http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62373-4/fulltext?rss=yes
I am in fact reading very few german articles while mostly reading US/UK ones. So yeah I'm getting plenty of the anti-austerity and agree with it (the critics, not the austerity). I just don't think it's literally the same as the Nazi regime. That being said I don't pretend to be smart enough to know what the alternative should be either, continuing the way it was before clearly didn't work out either.
That being said, there clearly is a difference in forcing those things on people (aka Nazi regime) and conditions linked to a bailout. If they've got a better plan people are all ears for it. I'm pretty sure Merkle would be happy to announce that in the near future Greece can stand on it's on feet and isn't just torturing people elsewhere out of spite.
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On February 14 2015 03:19 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:10 WhiteDog wrote:On February 14 2015 03:01 Toadesstern wrote:
So it's perfectly fine to insult Germany, depict them as Nazis, including both the general public as well as our politicians, literally compare austerity to all the horrible thigns the nazi regime has done. I get that people can complain, think it's stupid and all that but that's out of line for us as well while telling us to get a grip of ourselves.
At the same time you're yelling about how Bild (lol) needs to stop insulting Greece?
And because you answered to the one above: Yes Schäuble and Merkle aren't writing for BILD but you can see a difference in what Merkel said and what BILD said up there. That's the point here. Did you ever read anything not made by a german on the austerity program ? Do you know the cost of the austerity program in human life ? Increase in diseases long forgotten, increase in suicide, increase in cancer and such ? You think when Europe ask Greece to decrease its deficit it does not have DIRECT consequence on the population ? That they just take one less month in vacation ? lol And who's talking about BILD only ? You are. Do you mean that Merkel comments are not insulting and borderline racist ? http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62373-4/fulltext?rss=yes I am in fact reading very few german articles while mostly reading US/UK ones. So yeah I'm getting plenty of the anti-austerity and agree with it. I just don't think it's literally the same as the Nazi regime. That being said I don't pretend to be smart enough to know what the alternative should be either, continuing the way it was before clearly didn't work out either. That being said, there clearly is a difference in forcing those things on people (aka Nazi regime) and conditions linked to a bailout. If they've got a better plan people are all ears for it. I'm pretty sure Merkle would be happy to announce that in the near future Greece can stand on it's on feet and isn't torturing people elsewhere out of spite.
Of course it's not the nazi regime, just because a caricature says so you don't have to jump into this emotional thing. Let's just keep track with the subject, and the stupidity of the austerity measure imposed on the greek population.
Also there is a huge problem because this has devolved into a Germany vs Greece. I'm sorry but Germany suck at diplomacy, every time. It's not germany vs greece, it's the europe and what we do with it.
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On February 14 2015 03:10 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:02 Taguchi wrote:On February 14 2015 02:29 Nyxisto wrote:
I think there's a difference between some shitty tabloid or if it's a political party that creates hostility. I don't see the current German government treating Greece in the same way. Are you serious about this? Greece just had an election, where they voted the parties that brought it to its knees (PASOK and ND) out of government, for the first time ever in the period of parliamentary democracy (after the 1967-74 junta). Greece protests the continuation of a completely useless (as a matter of fact) program and proposes a list of reasonable (according to many outsiders) tweaks to it, forgoing the hard line of the outright haircut, at no additional cost to the european taxpayer. Germany's response: The program must be implemented in its entirety as if this election never happened, no matter the reasoning behind proposed changes. Programs cannot change every time some country has an election.President Hollande: Then what is the purpose of elections? And you talk about being insulting? Your government insults the core of democracy and its various functions. Your government is the one parroting the hard line stance of 'no change whatsoever', completely disregarding the actual efficacy of their program's implementation vs its projected efficacy. I don't care one iota about reparations or whatnot, even if the claims have legal backing (hint: they do). Germany does not want to go to court over this issue and since it's a sovereign, it can do what it wants no matter what. 'Insult' is laughable. edit: On February 14 2015 03:02 RvB wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 14 2015 01:09 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 20:36 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. For arguments against clientelism, I could propose to you some 400 to 600-page books: "Trust, the social virtues and the creation of prosperity" "Political order and political decay" Both by Francis Fukuyama. There are probably even more around, but I haven't gotten around reading them yet. I can, however, link you to a paper about clientelism and how it basically makes people governed by it incredibly dependent on the state (both for jobs and services) while gutting entrepreneurialism: https://www.academia.edu/1585129/Greek_Democracy_in_Transition_Indications_of_a_Beginning_Functional_Disentanglement_of_Clientelism_and_Parliamentarism (haven't finished reading this one yet myself) I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate. An interesting article with a different view on Syriza's victory and subsequent teaming-up with a right wing party: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-syriza-tsipras-nationalism-by-pavlos-eleftheriadis-2015-02A quote:
Rather than criticizing austerity as a well-meant policy error, [Tsipras] condemns it as an assault on Greece, a neo-colonial imposition, or a hostile ideological project gone wrong. His language is one of resistance to conquest.
Thus, it is no accident that Tsipras chose the far-right Independent Greeks party as his coalition partner. Both parties speak the same language – that of virulent nationalism – used by Europe's enemies, whether in Dresden or Moscow.
You are quoting me two book wrote by a guy who believe history would come to an end thanks to the domination of liberalism ? Anyway, you are not clear on the word reform, as alwas with that kind of term. If reforming is facing corruption, making sure people actually pay their tax, that's great, but note that you need money to do that (yes, the state need money to actually exist, and time - economist even take those costs into consideration when they evaluate the optimal level of taxation). But if behind reform you are referring to "structural" reform in the economy of the country, then it has been proven, by history, that those kind of reform always fail to achieve their gals, which is growth and employment. "I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate." Your belief are not really relevant to what a country such a greece should do. Lowering the state has been done, to an unhealthy amount : maybe look at reality ? Do you think it is a success ? It is really basic economy - when you fire people they don't consume. It's ok to push wage down if you reinvest what you have gained, or lay off some high wage people because they are useless as fuc most of the time (who tend to save more - the consumption function in keynesian economics) but when you massively lay off low wages, it instantly hit back in a decrease in consumption, and consumption represent a high % of a country GDP. It's just logic, and if you ask me it is more logic than to oppose the private and the public like every unknown economist is doing (the economy is, in fact, a circuit). Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 16:33 WhiteDog wrote:
There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed". That was one article you linked without any real evidence and we haven't heard about it since. Without any real evidence... an article from the FT about current investigation on the chief of ELSTAT is nothing you're right. Show nested quote +The head of Elstat, Greece’s new independent statistics agency, faces an official criminal investigation for allegedly inflating the scale of the country’s fiscal crisis and acting against the Greek national interest.
Andreas Georgiou, who worked at the International Monetary Fund for 20 years, was appointed in 2010 by agreement with the fund and the European Commission to clean up Greek statistics after years of official fudging by the finance ministry.[...]
The prosecutor cites a claim by professor Zoe Georganta, a senior statistician who was sacked along with other members of Elstat’s board by Evangelos Venizelos, the finance minister, earlier this year. According to Ms Georganta, the 2009 deficit was exaggerated by Elstat “so it would become larger than that of Ireland and Greece would be forced to adopt painful austerity measures”. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82b15932-18fe-11e1-92d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RYkArt5I It's behind a pay wall I cant see it but I haven't seen that before. On February 14 2015 01:37 Taguchi wrote:
@RvB, correct about the minimum leverage ratio, Varoufakis does gloss over that simply mentioning that banks have been very good at circumventing regulations in the past. That said, 3%?!? Better than before but still pretty horrible, no? The Americans are talking about 6% ratios for their big banks -_- . What happens when a bank is heavily investing into a sovereign, assuming it is risk-free (thus not triggering the 7% risk weighted ratio) and simply toeing the line at this 3% leverage ratio, and the sovereign defaults?
About the simplicity of the explanations, of course, it is a blog post after all. The leeway that banks have internally in calculating risk remains real, however. And they've been exceptionally good at creating extremely complicated financial instruments that might escape regulatory authorities' scrutiny, so... It's not just glossing over, it's leaving out a rule which makes his whole blog look ridiculous. You can argue whether 3% is the correct amount or not but that's not what he's doing. Banks can't just circumvent the ratio's. They're based on Loan to Value ratio's and Loan to Income ratio's which aren't open to interpretation. (talking about residential mortgages now) In your assumption even a bank with 100% equity financing would go bankrupt. Your example is also assuming the bank is a fool, diversification is one of the basic principles of any bank. What a bank would do in that situation is buy AAA bonds of multiple countries not just one and thus hedge the risk. I'm not saying these rules are perfect and that banks won't be able to circumvent them at least partly but Varoufakis isn't really making any convincing arguments. Yeah agreed he's wrong with his example (post was dated nov 2010, I see basel iii was implemented dec 2010, perhaps this issue hadn't been settled yet or he had false information?). That's just not true. Ever since the elections happened it was clear as day that things would change and a compromiss had to be found. Germany as well as every other country said it was fine negotiating and changing things up as long as A PROGRAM is there. Not THE program but just something that has basic conditions to it. Just yesterday they signed a changed one (supposedly, I havn't read it) and greeks finance minister backed out of it after all, after agreeing to it earlier. The only thing Germans as well as every one else has been hard on is that they can't tell their voters that another debt-cut is going to happen.
Well they should find a way then because a debt haircut is not a question if it's gonna happen but when will happen.
Greece has to pay 140b euros of debt till 2030. That means that each year Greece will need to have a surplus of avg. 9billion euros and 100% of it to be spend for the debt repayments. That is impossible to happen.
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On February 14 2015 03:20 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:19 Toadesstern wrote:On February 14 2015 03:10 WhiteDog wrote:On February 14 2015 03:01 Toadesstern wrote:
So it's perfectly fine to insult Germany, depict them as Nazis, including both the general public as well as our politicians, literally compare austerity to all the horrible thigns the nazi regime has done. I get that people can complain, think it's stupid and all that but that's out of line for us as well while telling us to get a grip of ourselves.
At the same time you're yelling about how Bild (lol) needs to stop insulting Greece?
And because you answered to the one above: Yes Schäuble and Merkle aren't writing for BILD but you can see a difference in what Merkel said and what BILD said up there. That's the point here. Did you ever read anything not made by a german on the austerity program ? Do you know the cost of the austerity program in human life ? Increase in diseases long forgotten, increase in suicide, increase in cancer and such ? You think when Europe ask Greece to decrease its deficit it does not have DIRECT consequence on the population ? That they just take one less month in vacation ? lol And who's talking about BILD only ? You are. Do you mean that Merkel comments are not insulting and borderline racist ? http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62373-4/fulltext?rss=yes I am in fact reading very few german articles while mostly reading US/UK ones. So yeah I'm getting plenty of the anti-austerity and agree with it. I just don't think it's literally the same as the Nazi regime. That being said I don't pretend to be smart enough to know what the alternative should be either, continuing the way it was before clearly didn't work out either. That being said, there clearly is a difference in forcing those things on people (aka Nazi regime) and conditions linked to a bailout. If they've got a better plan people are all ears for it. I'm pretty sure Merkle would be happy to announce that in the near future Greece can stand on it's on feet and isn't torturing people elsewhere out of spite. Of course it's not the nazi regime, just because a caricature says so you don't have to jump into this emotional thing. Let's just keep track with the subject, and the stupidity of the austerity measure imposed on the greek population.
you just said that Germans should stop insulting greece.
Comparing austerity to the nazi regime was the greek finance minister and not a tabloit iirc? (I actually could be wrong on this one)
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On February 14 2015 03:13 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:02 Taguchi wrote:On February 14 2015 02:29 Nyxisto wrote:
I think there's a difference between some shitty tabloid or if it's a political party that creates hostility. I don't see the current German government treating Greece in the same way. Are you serious about this? Greece just had an election, where they voted the parties that brought it to its knees (PASOK and ND) out of government, for the first time ever in the period of parliamentary democracy (after the 1967-74 junta). Whats the difference between what Styrizia says its going to do and the way PASOK ruled? It seems like their public spending promises are the same, no? I guess Styrizia's election also seems to have caused many Greeks to stop paying taxes too.
Syriza has been in power for about 3 weeks now, and was sworn in only last week. Tax collection crumbled during December and January, possibly (wild speculation, I know) because the leader of ND, Samaras, went on a campaign centered on fear and misinformation about the results of Syriza getting voted in. Who knew that having the current PM tell you we're about to go up in flames would destroy tax receipts?!
Difference between PASOK and Syriza is that Syriza proposes to never go into debt again, and values this goal more highly than any other announcement. Given that even announcements like the hike of the minimum wage do not affect government spending all that much (goverment doesn't employ minimum wage people, only unemployment benefits are tied to minimum wage and these aren't a whole lot obviously - longterm unemployed people don't receive benefits at all, after all). Another major difference is that the various oligarchs you've been hearing about the last few years are inexorably tied with PASOK and ND but not with Syriza, at least so far. So there's the potential for success in that front, this time, a potential that never existed before.
But yeah, potential shmotential just mark them off as radical leftists/marxists/communists and bring back the good old boys, the ones who should've been elected, huh. Smart!
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On February 14 2015 03:24 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:20 WhiteDog wrote:On February 14 2015 03:19 Toadesstern wrote:On February 14 2015 03:10 WhiteDog wrote:On February 14 2015 03:01 Toadesstern wrote:
So it's perfectly fine to insult Germany, depict them as Nazis, including both the general public as well as our politicians, literally compare austerity to all the horrible thigns the nazi regime has done. I get that people can complain, think it's stupid and all that but that's out of line for us as well while telling us to get a grip of ourselves.
At the same time you're yelling about how Bild (lol) needs to stop insulting Greece?
And because you answered to the one above: Yes Schäuble and Merkle aren't writing for BILD but you can see a difference in what Merkel said and what BILD said up there. That's the point here. Did you ever read anything not made by a german on the austerity program ? Do you know the cost of the austerity program in human life ? Increase in diseases long forgotten, increase in suicide, increase in cancer and such ? You think when Europe ask Greece to decrease its deficit it does not have DIRECT consequence on the population ? That they just take one less month in vacation ? lol And who's talking about BILD only ? You are. Do you mean that Merkel comments are not insulting and borderline racist ? http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62373-4/fulltext?rss=yes I am in fact reading very few german articles while mostly reading US/UK ones. So yeah I'm getting plenty of the anti-austerity and agree with it. I just don't think it's literally the same as the Nazi regime. That being said I don't pretend to be smart enough to know what the alternative should be either, continuing the way it was before clearly didn't work out either. That being said, there clearly is a difference in forcing those things on people (aka Nazi regime) and conditions linked to a bailout. If they've got a better plan people are all ears for it. I'm pretty sure Merkle would be happy to announce that in the near future Greece can stand on it's on feet and isn't torturing people elsewhere out of spite. Of course it's not the nazi regime, just because a caricature says so you don't have to jump into this emotional thing. Let's just keep track with the subject, and the stupidity of the austerity measure imposed on the greek population. you just said that Germans should stop insulting greece. Comparing austerity to the nazi regime was the greek finance minister and not a tabloit iirc? (I actually could be wrong on this one)
No it's a daily nazi cartoon of Schlaube. Nothing to do with the finance minister...
The cartoon depicts Germany s finance minister in a Wehrmacht uniform saying "we insist on the soap from your fat... We are prepared to discuss the fertiliser from your ashes".
The headline reads, "The negotiation has begun"
+ Show Spoiler +
Imo it's a good thing if it can put Schlaube in its place, you should not really give tips to others in such a disrespectful tone. That's diplomacy.
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Greece really needs to get its house in order. I volunteer to take over and try to fix it all. I guarantee I'll try if allowed to!
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January's dive in revenues was largely driven by Greeks holding off before the vote in the belief that a government led by the radical Syriza party would abolish some unpopular measures such as the ENFIA property tax.
source
So not because of fear mongering
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On February 14 2015 03:32 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:24 Toadesstern wrote:On February 14 2015 03:20 WhiteDog wrote:On February 14 2015 03:19 Toadesstern wrote:On February 14 2015 03:10 WhiteDog wrote:On February 14 2015 03:01 Toadesstern wrote:
So it's perfectly fine to insult Germany, depict them as Nazis, including both the general public as well as our politicians, literally compare austerity to all the horrible thigns the nazi regime has done. I get that people can complain, think it's stupid and all that but that's out of line for us as well while telling us to get a grip of ourselves.
At the same time you're yelling about how Bild (lol) needs to stop insulting Greece?
And because you answered to the one above: Yes Schäuble and Merkle aren't writing for BILD but you can see a difference in what Merkel said and what BILD said up there. That's the point here. Did you ever read anything not made by a german on the austerity program ? Do you know the cost of the austerity program in human life ? Increase in diseases long forgotten, increase in suicide, increase in cancer and such ? You think when Europe ask Greece to decrease its deficit it does not have DIRECT consequence on the population ? That they just take one less month in vacation ? lol And who's talking about BILD only ? You are. Do you mean that Merkel comments are not insulting and borderline racist ? http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(14)62373-4/fulltext?rss=yes I am in fact reading very few german articles while mostly reading US/UK ones. So yeah I'm getting plenty of the anti-austerity and agree with it. I just don't think it's literally the same as the Nazi regime. That being said I don't pretend to be smart enough to know what the alternative should be either, continuing the way it was before clearly didn't work out either. That being said, there clearly is a difference in forcing those things on people (aka Nazi regime) and conditions linked to a bailout. If they've got a better plan people are all ears for it. I'm pretty sure Merkle would be happy to announce that in the near future Greece can stand on it's on feet and isn't torturing people elsewhere out of spite. Of course it's not the nazi regime, just because a caricature says so you don't have to jump into this emotional thing. Let's just keep track with the subject, and the stupidity of the austerity measure imposed on the greek population. you just said that Germans should stop insulting greece. Comparing austerity to the nazi regime was the greek finance minister and not a tabloit iirc? (I actually could be wrong on this one) No it's a daily nazi cartoon of Schlaube. Nothing to do with the finance minister... Show nested quote +The cartoon depicts Germany s finance minister in a Wehrmacht uniform saying "we insist on the soap from your fat... We are prepared to discuss the fertiliser from your ashes".
The headline reads, "The negotiation has begun" + Show Spoiler +Imo it's a good thing if it can put Schlaube in its place, you should not really give tips to others in such a disrespectful tone. That's diplomacy.
I see, my bad. Varoufakis was the one that compared it to waterboarding and CIA-torturing in general and later in an interview made the comparison to Versailles to correct it.
But with that I'm actually fine if it's to vent, both versions at that because it' actually making a point and explaining it.
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It's a sad situation with both German media depicting Greeks as lazy and Greek media using nazi images to depict Germans.
It's sad because it is creating hostility between 90 million people who for the most part don't have any deep understanding of the situation at all and certainly don't have any say in how to handle the situation.
It's sad because it has gone so far that Germans decide against a vacation in Greece because they expect hostilities towards them and thus won't experience that wonderful country. Which is also sad for Greeks because they will get less tourist money.
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On February 14 2015 03:45 REDBLUEGREEN wrote:
It's a sad situation with both German media depicting Greeks as lazy and Greek media using nazi images to depict Germans.
It's sad because it is creating hostility between 90 million people who for the most part don't have any deep understanding of the situation at all and certainly don't have any say in how to handle the situation.
It's sad because it has gone so far that Germans decide against a vacation in Greece because they expect hostilities towards them and thus won't experience that wonderful country. Which is also sad for Greeks because they will get less tourist money.
If only more people thought like this. All those crazy people around Europe (Le Pen's supporters, UKIP, Golden Dawn (these ones are far worse however, they are actual Nazis)) bringing the dream of a common future down, and for what? Pride? Profits?
Complete insanity.
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On February 14 2015 03:18 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:17 maartendq wrote:On February 14 2015 01:09 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 20:36 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. For arguments against clientelism, I could propose to you some 400 to 600-page books: "Trust, the social virtues and the creation of prosperity" "Political order and political decay" Both by Francis Fukuyama. There are probably even more around, but I haven't gotten around reading them yet. I can, however, link you to a paper about clientelism and how it basically makes people governed by it incredibly dependent on the state (both for jobs and services) while gutting entrepreneurialism: https://www.academia.edu/1585129/Greek_Democracy_in_Transition_Indications_of_a_Beginning_Functional_Disentanglement_of_Clientelism_and_Parliamentarism (haven't finished reading this one yet myself) I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate. An interesting article with a different view on Syriza's victory and subsequent teaming-up with a right wing party: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-syriza-tsipras-nationalism-by-pavlos-eleftheriadis-2015-02A quote:
Rather than criticizing austerity as a well-meant policy error, [Tsipras] condemns it as an assault on Greece, a neo-colonial imposition, or a hostile ideological project gone wrong. His language is one of resistance to conquest.
Thus, it is no accident that Tsipras chose the far-right Independent Greeks party as his coalition partner. Both parties speak the same language – that of virulent nationalism – used by Europe's enemies, whether in Dresden or Moscow.
You are quoting me two book wrote by a guy who believe history would come to an end thanks to the domination of liberalism ? Anyway, you are not clear on the word reform, as alwas with that kind of term. If reforming is facing corruption, making sure people actually pay their tax, that's great, but note that you need money to do that (yes, the state need money to actually exist, and time - economist even take those costs into consideration when they evaluate the optimal level of taxation). But if behind reform you are referring to "structural" reform in the economy of the country, then it has been proven, by history, that those kind of reform always fail to achieve their gals, which is growth and employment. "I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate." Your belief are not really relevant to what a country such a greece should do. Lowering the state has been done, to an unhealthy amount : maybe look at reality ? Do you think it is a success ? It is really basic economy - when you fire people they don't consume. It's ok to push wage down if you reinvest what you have gained, or lay off some high wage people because they are useless as fuc most of the time (who tend to save more - the consumption function in keynesian economics) but when you massively lay off low wages, it instantly hit back in a decrease in consumption, and consumption represent a high % of a country GDP. It's just logic, and if you ask me it is more logic than to oppose the private and the public like every unknown economist is doing (the economy is, in fact, a circuit). On February 13 2015 16:33 WhiteDog wrote:
There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed". That was one article you linked without any real evidence and we haven't heard about it since. Without any real evidence... an article from the FT about current investigation on the chief of ELSTAT is nothing you're right. The head of Elstat, Greece’s new independent statistics agency, faces an official criminal investigation for allegedly inflating the scale of the country’s fiscal crisis and acting against the Greek national interest.
Andreas Georgiou, who worked at the International Monetary Fund for 20 years, was appointed in 2010 by agreement with the fund and the European Commission to clean up Greek statistics after years of official fudging by the finance ministry.[...]
The prosecutor cites a claim by professor Zoe Georganta, a senior statistician who was sacked along with other members of Elstat’s board by Evangelos Venizelos, the finance minister, earlier this year. According to Ms Georganta, the 2009 deficit was exaggerated by Elstat “so it would become larger than that of Ireland and Greece would be forced to adopt painful austerity measures”. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82b15932-18fe-11e1-92d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RYkArt5I In terms of rebuttals, you'll need to do a little better than "Fukuyama once wrote a controversial theory a lot of people rejected so everything he says can be ignored". Apart from the fact that he himself already admitted that his theory of "the end of history" was not his best, his last two books got a lot of acclaim, and are really good. You don't have to necessarily agree with everything he says or claims in order to actually learn something from his research. My rebuttal is pretty clear : Fukuyama is a useless neocon / free marketist who don't know shit about what he is talking about. What is happening in Greece has been foretold by all Keynesian economists it's not even up to discussion : you cannot lay off more than 10 % of the workforce (from 7.7 % unemployment to 25 %) and believe that this will lead to growth, it's just not how it work. And I don't need to argue with Fukuyama to prove that point.
Fukuyama turned his back on the neocons after he realised that they were really not up to anything good. Read a book or watch one of his videos and enlighten yourself instead of judging someone based on outdated information.
What do you want happen? The Greek government to continue its policy of mass public sector employment (with wages so high that the private sector cannot compete) and handouts regardless of whether it can afford it or not?
If I'm not wrong, Keynsian economic theory prefers investment over austerity in times of crisis, logically with the idea that the country will catch up and be able to pay back the loans it required for those investments (unless of course it plain devaluated its currency, which Greece is not in a position to do). However, these investments have to go towards creating a competitive economy, not towards the salaries of an overstaffed government aparatus.
Incidently, the kind of government that is able to create policy that enables the birthing of a competitive economy is one that is effective and gives plenty of room for a private sector to flourish. An effective government is also a necessity if it wants to provide services to the people it governs (lest it be overthrown), which requires Nationwide taxation over all strata within society.The Greek government does neither.
Just giving Greece more money to spend is not going to magically solve their issues. And yes, it sucks for the Greeks that they ended up in this situation, but there is absolutely no easy way out of it.
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On February 14 2015 03:26 Taguchi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:13 Sub40APM wrote:On February 14 2015 03:02 Taguchi wrote:On February 14 2015 02:29 Nyxisto wrote:
I think there's a difference between some shitty tabloid or if it's a political party that creates hostility. I don't see the current German government treating Greece in the same way. Are you serious about this? Greece just had an election, where they voted the parties that brought it to its knees (PASOK and ND) out of government, for the first time ever in the period of parliamentary democracy (after the 1967-74 junta). Whats the difference between what Styrizia says its going to do and the way PASOK ruled? It seems like their public spending promises are the same, no? I guess Styrizia's election also seems to have caused many Greeks to stop paying taxes too. Syriza has been in power for about 3 weeks now, and was sworn in only last week. Tax collection crumbled during December and January, possibly (wild speculation, I know) because the leader of ND, Samaras, went on a campaign centered on fear and misinformation about the results of Syriza getting voted in. Who knew that having the current PM tell you we're about to go up in flames would destroy tax receipts?!
Yea but I am talking about policies, PASOK spent a lot on varous social spendings no?
Difference between PASOK and Syriza is that Syriza proposes to never go into debt again, and values this goal more highly than any other announcement.
How are they going to do that?
Given that even announcements like the hike of the minimum wage do not affect government spending all that much (goverment doesn't employ minimum wage people, only unemployment benefits are tied to minimum wage and these aren't a whole lot obviously - longterm unemployed people don't receive benefits at all, after all).
High minimum wage --> more un employed people ---> more government benefits.
I am not saying the old boys club should have preserved but from what I read on actual policies PASOK and Syriza are more or less the same, except Syriza couldnt get some pet oligarch to pay for their elections. I am genuinely curious what the Greeks think Syriza can do other than add a bit more anti-German rhetoric?
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On February 14 2015 03:39 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +January's dive in revenues was largely driven by Greeks holding off before the vote in the belief that a government led by the radical Syriza party would abolish some unpopular measures such as the ENFIA property tax. sourceSo not because of fear mongering
Because of fear mongering. "If Syriza wins then next day you won't even have toilet paper" (that's a real statement)
So greek businesses tried to postpone taxes and preserve their capital.
State Budget net revenues amounted to 3,682 million Euros, showing an under performance of 936 million Euros or 20.3 % against the target, mainly due to the extension of the VAT payment until the end of February 2015 and due to the underperformance of the expected revenues from the settlement of arrears.
http://www.minfin.gr/?q=en/content/state-budget-execution-january-2015-0
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On February 14 2015 03:39 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +January's dive in revenues was largely driven by Greeks holding off before the vote in the belief that a government led by the radical Syriza party would abolish some unpopular measures such as the ENFIA property tax. sourceSo not because of fear mongering
Please. A report about these damn 'radicals' bringing down society from the venerable Reuters. Samaras incessantly talked about Grexit, about Syriza going after people's deposits day in day out and Reuters still attributes the tax shortfall to those damn radicals - so radical that they asked the people to pay off ENFIA, warts and all, because there was no time to rectify any of its many bad points (we're talking straight up calculation errors here).
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Again I repeat, I don't need to read Fukuyama. I know about his work and it's enough for me to judge him. I don't know why you believe he is relevant in today's world : did you read any keynes ? marx ? I pretty sure you didn't and yet you judge them - and they're quite up there while Fukuyama is certainly not.
What do you want happen? The Greek government to continue its policy of mass public sector employment (with wages so high that the private sector cannot compete) and handouts regardless of whether it can afford it or not?
If I'm not wrong, Keynsian economic theory prefers investment over austerity in times of crisis, logically with the idea that the country will catch up and be able to pay back the loans it required for those investments (unless of course it plain devaluated its currency, which Greece is not in a position to do). However, these investments have to go towards creating a competitive economy, not towards the salaries of an overstaffed government aparatus.
Incidently, the kind of government that is able to create policy that enables the birthing of a competitive economy is one that is effective and gives plenty of room for a private sector to flourish. An effective government is also a necessity if it wants to provide services to the people it governs (lest it be overthrown), which requires Nationwide taxation over all strata within society.The Greek government does neither.
Just giving Greece more money to spend is not going to magically solve their issues. And yes, it sucks for the Greeks that they ended up in this situation, but there is absolutely no easy way out of it.
No Keynesian economy is a little deeper than that... Your vision of economy is way too weak.
The problem is not that the investments are not competitive. The problem has to do with the economy as a circuit.
In a normal closed environment, even if the investment are not competitive, it still end up in an increase in production unless the production can't keep up with the increase in wage and then it create inflation (because the uncompetitive investment is still consumed and flew back to the economy, that's the basis of the keynesian multiplicator... just think about the flow of water in the plumbing). The competitivity of the production has NOTHING to do with the matter at hand UNLESS you add competition between countries to the question (which doesn't mean much in a closed circuit).
The problem with greece is not the lack of competitivity of their investments, and the lack of productivity of public workers (whatever that mean) it is the fact that it is not a closed circuit (so all the cash they invest flow out of their country) and that the euro zone as a whole does not function well as a closed circuit (the cash the greek invest does not come back to them) : inflation is too low so investment is down, the production capacities are not fully used and there is a high saving rate due to countries that refuse to reinvest what they have gained through exports.
There are many things people who talk about this subject should do before making quick judgements :
1) learn how economist understand "money" to actually understand what to do today ;
2) put aside all ideas that money have value in itself everywhere and always ;
3) vision europe as a circuit where money is flowing from one country to another and find where the money is stuck (which means, find the point in the circuit where all the flux go) ;
4) put aside this idea that spending is the problem and go back to real relevant indicator such as growth, inflation and employment : it's all in the phillips curve.
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I don't understand the point about cash flow out of Greece, if anything the creation of a common currency has lead to "excess money" going into Greece, creating the imbalance that has now lead to Greece's indebtedness?
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WhiteDog I studied economics in college and I'm having a hard time interpreting what you're saying. Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean by closed circuit? Do you mean a country that has its own currency and restricts trade with the outside world? By saying that the problem with Greece is not being in a 'closed circuit' are you implying that the solution is an exit from the Euro and from the single market?
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