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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
I think there's a difference between some shitty tabloid or if it's a political party that creates hostility. I don't see the current German government treating Greece in the same way.
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Could you please show me all them insults those hotblooded Germans are throwing left and right?
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Come on guys... everyone in here knows WhiteDog is a far lefty that thinks the Euro is the worst thing to have ever happened to humanity while bashing Germany ever since this thread was opened because it's Germany that's pulling the strings and secretly profiting from the Euro while putting everything to waste.
What's the point of talking about this
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If you're of the opinion that only "far lefty's" are critical of Germany's approach, than you haven't been paying much attention.
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No, but it seems to be only the radical far left that thinks we're trying to build the fourth reich.
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On February 14 2015 02:49 farvacola wrote:
If you're of the opinion that only "far lefty's" are critical of Germany's approach, than you haven't been paying much attention.
That's not what I've been getting at at all.
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I've already made a post about that - citing study on anti greek sentiment in germany. For fun tho :
Chancellor Angela Merkel has attacked southern European countries such as Greece, where people retire early and take lots of holidays, saying they can no longer enjoy such lifestyles at the cost of other EU members like Germany.
https://euobserver.com/political/32363
Greece should consider selling some of its islands as one option to reduce debt, two members of the German parliament in Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right coalition have said.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/7372594/Germany-says-Greece-should-sell-islands-to-reduce-debt.html
After yesterday's call by two German politicians that Greece sell off islands, historic buildings and artworks before receiving aid, the German tabloid Bild has written an open letter to the Greek prime minister George Papandreou:
Dear prime minister,
If you're reading this, you've entered a country different from yours. You're in Germany.
Here, people work until they are 67 and there is no 14th-month salary for civil servants. Here, nobody needs to pay a €1,000 bribe to get a hospital bed in time.
Our petrol stations have cash registers, taxi drivers give receipts and farmers don't swindle EU subsidies with millions of non-existent olive trees.
Germany also has high debts but we can settle them. That's because we get up early and work all day.
We want to be friends with the Greeks. That's why since joining the euro, Germany has given your country €50bn.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/mar/05/bild-open-letter-greece-papandreou
"Dear Greeks,
You are proud people... a proud country. Tomorrow you have elections, again.
You say: We are free.
Bild says: Is it in your hand.
There is a difference...
If you didn't want our billions of euro, you would be free to elect every left-wing or right-wing fool you may wish....
But for the last 2 years the situation is this: Your banks continue to give you euro only because Germany and the other countries of the Eurozone give you money...
However Greeks continue to insult us and call us Nazis, which it is not funny at all...
If the parties which plan to stop the austerity (in violation of any agreement) win the upcoming elections - WE WILL STOP PAYING!
The deal is this: you reform your country and in the meantime we will help you.
If you don't want our help anymore, nor do we want to help you.
It's up to you....
Tomorrow you have elections. But you have no options. You choose between painful prudence and total destruction.
And we are very afraid that you have not realized it yet...
Sincerely,BILD"
http://www.europeanpeoplesmovement.org/index.php/news/europe/item/63-german-and-european-newspapers-demand-that-greece-must-continue-with-austerity
Greece's president accused German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Wednesday of insulting his nation, reflecting growing public resentment of almost daily lectures from Berlin on the dire state of the Greek economy.
A visibly angry President Karolos Papoulias singled out Schaeuble after he appeared to suggest Greece might go bankrupt, and also attacked critics of his country in the Netherlands and Finland.
"I cannot accept Mr Schaeuble insulting my country," said Papoulias, an 82-year-old veteran of Greece's resistance struggle against the Nazi occupation of World War Two.
"Who is Mr Schaeuble to insult Greece? Who are the Dutch? Who are the Finnish?" he said in a speech at the Defense Ministry.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/us-greece-germany-idUSTRE81E1VK20120215
This comment was a response to Schlaube asking for Greece to postpone its elections and let a technocratic group govern the country for a while.
On February 14 2015 02:50 Nyxisto wrote:
No, but it seems to be only the radical far left that thinks we're trying to build the fourth reich.
My god, just deal with your history already. I'm not going to give you emotionnal support.
On February 14 2015 02:47 Toadesstern wrote:
Come on guys... everyone in here knows WhiteDog is a far lefty that thinks the Euro is the worst thing to have ever happened to humanity while bashing Germany ever since this thread was opened because it's Germany that's pulling the strings and secretly profiting from the Euro while putting everything to waste.
What's the point of talking about this
I don't really care about Germany, altho I'm not that fond of your politicians "state of mind". The euro is shit, that's just a fact. By the way I don't consider myself as part of the left. Here is an old quote from old french socialists : "There are three things that made a failure of our revolutions : the police, the army and the left".
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Seriously, BILD? That is pretty much the shittiest tabloid in existence. They have a history of wonderful articles ranging from stupid to plain insane (My personal favorite: "Chaos at the Equator, the Earth's Axis topples over!"). Do not take BILD serious. BILD is a very stupid sensationalist newspaper for very stupid people.
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On February 14 2015 02:58 Simberto wrote:
Seriously, BILD? That is pretty much the shittiest tabloid in existence. They have a history of wonderful articles ranging from stupid to plain insane (My personal favorite: "Chaos at the Equator, the Earth's Axis topples over!"). Do not take BILD serious. BILD is a very stupid sensationalist newspaper for very stupid people.
Schlaube, Merkel are writers for the BILD ?
It's like you are discovering diplomacy ...
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So it's perfectly fine to insult Germany, depict them as Nazis, including both the general public as well as our politicians, literally compare austerity to all the horrible thigns the nazi regime has done. I get that people can complain, think it's stupid and all that but that's out of line for us as well while telling us to get a grip of ourselves.
At the same time you're yelling about how Bild (lol) needs to stop insulting Greece?
And because you answered to the one above: Yes Schäuble and Merkle aren't writing for BILD but you can see a difference in what Merkel said and what BILD said up there. That's the point here.
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 14 2015 01:09 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 20:36 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. For arguments against clientelism, I could propose to you some 400 to 600-page books: "Trust, the social virtues and the creation of prosperity" "Political order and political decay" Both by Francis Fukuyama. There are probably even more around, but I haven't gotten around reading them yet. I can, however, link you to a paper about clientelism and how it basically makes people governed by it incredibly dependent on the state (both for jobs and services) while gutting entrepreneurialism: https://www.academia.edu/1585129/Greek_Democracy_in_Transition_Indications_of_a_Beginning_Functional_Disentanglement_of_Clientelism_and_Parliamentarism (haven't finished reading this one yet myself) I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate. An interesting article with a different view on Syriza's victory and subsequent teaming-up with a right wing party: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-syriza-tsipras-nationalism-by-pavlos-eleftheriadis-2015-02A quote:
Rather than criticizing austerity as a well-meant policy error, [Tsipras] condemns it as an assault on Greece, a neo-colonial imposition, or a hostile ideological project gone wrong. His language is one of resistance to conquest.
Thus, it is no accident that Tsipras chose the far-right Independent Greeks party as his coalition partner. Both parties speak the same language – that of virulent nationalism – used by Europe's enemies, whether in Dresden or Moscow.
You are quoting me two book wrote by a guy who believe history would come to an end thanks to the domination of liberalism ? Anyway, you are not clear on the word reform, as alwas with that kind of term. If reforming is facing corruption, making sure people actually pay their tax, that's great, but note that you need money to do that (yes, the state need money to actually exist, and time - economist even take those costs into consideration when they evaluate the optimal level of taxation). But if behind reform you are referring to "structural" reform in the economy of the country, then it has been proven, by history, that those kind of reform always fail to achieve their gals, which is growth and employment. "I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate." Your belief are not really relevant to what a country such a greece should do. Lowering the state has been done, to an unhealthy amount : maybe look at reality ? Do you think it is a success ? It is really basic economy - when you fire people they don't consume. It's ok to push wage down if you reinvest what you have gained, or lay off some high wage people because they are useless as fuc most of the time (who tend to save more - the consumption function in keynesian economics) but when you massively lay off low wages, it instantly hit back in a decrease in consumption, and consumption represent a high % of a country GDP. It's just logic, and if you ask me it is more logic than to oppose the private and the public like every unknown economist is doing (the economy is, in fact, a circuit). Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 16:33 WhiteDog wrote:
There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed". That was one article you linked without any real evidence and we haven't heard about it since. Without any real evidence... an article from the FT about current investigation on the chief of ELSTAT is nothing you're right. Show nested quote +The head of Elstat, Greece’s new independent statistics agency, faces an official criminal investigation for allegedly inflating the scale of the country’s fiscal crisis and acting against the Greek national interest.
Andreas Georgiou, who worked at the International Monetary Fund for 20 years, was appointed in 2010 by agreement with the fund and the European Commission to clean up Greek statistics after years of official fudging by the finance ministry.[...]
The prosecutor cites a claim by professor Zoe Georganta, a senior statistician who was sacked along with other members of Elstat’s board by Evangelos Venizelos, the finance minister, earlier this year. According to Ms Georganta, the 2009 deficit was exaggerated by Elstat “so it would become larger than that of Ireland and Greece would be forced to adopt painful austerity measures”. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82b15932-18fe-11e1-92d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RYkArt5I
It's behind a pay wall I cant see it but I haven't seen that before.
On February 14 2015 01:37 Taguchi wrote:
@RvB, correct about the minimum leverage ratio, Varoufakis does gloss over that simply mentioning that banks have been very good at circumventing regulations in the past. That said, 3%?!? Better than before but still pretty horrible, no? The Americans are talking about 6% ratios for their big banks -_- . What happens when a bank is heavily investing into a sovereign, assuming it is risk-free (thus not triggering the 7% risk weighted ratio) and simply toeing the line at this 3% leverage ratio, and the sovereign defaults?
About the simplicity of the explanations, of course, it is a blog post after all. The leeway that banks have internally in calculating risk remains real, however. And they've been exceptionally good at creating extremely complicated financial instruments that might escape regulatory authorities' scrutiny, so...
It's not just glossing over, it's leaving out a rule which makes his whole blog look ridiculous. You can argue whether 3% is the correct amount or not but that's not what he's doing.
Banks can't just circumvent the ratio's. They're based on Loan to Value ratio's and Loan to Income ratio's which aren't open to interpretation. (talking about residential mortgages now)
In your assumption even a bank with 100% equity financing would go bankrupt. Your example is also assuming the bank is a fool, diversification is one of the basic principles of any bank. What a bank would do in that situation is buy AAA bonds of multiple countries not just one and thus hedge the risk.
I'm not saying these rules are perfect and that banks won't be able to circumvent them at least partly but Varoufakis isn't really making any convincing arguments.
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On February 14 2015 02:29 Nyxisto wrote:
I think there's a difference between some shitty tabloid or if it's a political party that creates hostility. I don't see the current German government treating Greece in the same way.
Are you serious about this?
Greece just had an election, where they voted the parties that brought it to its knees (PASOK and ND) out of government, for the first time ever in the period of parliamentary democracy (after the 1967-74 junta). Greece protests the continuation of a completely useless (as a matter of fact) program and proposes a list of reasonable (according to many outsiders) tweaks to it, forgoing the hard line of the outright haircut, at no additional cost to the european taxpayer.
Germany's response: The program must be implemented in its entirety as if this election never happened, no matter the reasoning behind proposed changes. Programs cannot change every time some country has an election.
President Hollande: Then what is the purpose of elections?
And you talk about being insulting? Your government insults the core of democracy and its various functions. Your government is the one parroting the hard line stance of 'no change whatsoever', completely disregarding the actual efficacy of their program's implementation vs its projected efficacy.
I don't care one iota about reparations or whatnot, even if the claims have legal backing (hint: they do). Germany does not want to go to court over this issue and since it's a sovereign, it can do what it wants no matter what. 'Insult' is laughable.
edit:
On February 14 2015 03:02 RvB wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 14 2015 01:09 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 20:36 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. For arguments against clientelism, I could propose to you some 400 to 600-page books: "Trust, the social virtues and the creation of prosperity" "Political order and political decay" Both by Francis Fukuyama. There are probably even more around, but I haven't gotten around reading them yet. I can, however, link you to a paper about clientelism and how it basically makes people governed by it incredibly dependent on the state (both for jobs and services) while gutting entrepreneurialism: https://www.academia.edu/1585129/Greek_Democracy_in_Transition_Indications_of_a_Beginning_Functional_Disentanglement_of_Clientelism_and_Parliamentarism (haven't finished reading this one yet myself) I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate. An interesting article with a different view on Syriza's victory and subsequent teaming-up with a right wing party: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-syriza-tsipras-nationalism-by-pavlos-eleftheriadis-2015-02A quote:
Rather than criticizing austerity as a well-meant policy error, [Tsipras] condemns it as an assault on Greece, a neo-colonial imposition, or a hostile ideological project gone wrong. His language is one of resistance to conquest.
Thus, it is no accident that Tsipras chose the far-right Independent Greeks party as his coalition partner. Both parties speak the same language – that of virulent nationalism – used by Europe's enemies, whether in Dresden or Moscow.
You are quoting me two book wrote by a guy who believe history would come to an end thanks to the domination of liberalism ? Anyway, you are not clear on the word reform, as alwas with that kind of term. If reforming is facing corruption, making sure people actually pay their tax, that's great, but note that you need money to do that (yes, the state need money to actually exist, and time - economist even take those costs into consideration when they evaluate the optimal level of taxation). But if behind reform you are referring to "structural" reform in the economy of the country, then it has been proven, by history, that those kind of reform always fail to achieve their gals, which is growth and employment. "I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate." Your belief are not really relevant to what a country such a greece should do. Lowering the state has been done, to an unhealthy amount : maybe look at reality ? Do you think it is a success ? It is really basic economy - when you fire people they don't consume. It's ok to push wage down if you reinvest what you have gained, or lay off some high wage people because they are useless as fuc most of the time (who tend to save more - the consumption function in keynesian economics) but when you massively lay off low wages, it instantly hit back in a decrease in consumption, and consumption represent a high % of a country GDP. It's just logic, and if you ask me it is more logic than to oppose the private and the public like every unknown economist is doing (the economy is, in fact, a circuit). Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 16:33 WhiteDog wrote:
There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed". That was one article you linked without any real evidence and we haven't heard about it since. Without any real evidence... an article from the FT about current investigation on the chief of ELSTAT is nothing you're right. Show nested quote +The head of Elstat, Greece’s new independent statistics agency, faces an official criminal investigation for allegedly inflating the scale of the country’s fiscal crisis and acting against the Greek national interest.
Andreas Georgiou, who worked at the International Monetary Fund for 20 years, was appointed in 2010 by agreement with the fund and the European Commission to clean up Greek statistics after years of official fudging by the finance ministry.[...]
The prosecutor cites a claim by professor Zoe Georganta, a senior statistician who was sacked along with other members of Elstat’s board by Evangelos Venizelos, the finance minister, earlier this year. According to Ms Georganta, the 2009 deficit was exaggerated by Elstat “so it would become larger than that of Ireland and Greece would be forced to adopt painful austerity measures”. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82b15932-18fe-11e1-92d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RYkArt5I It's behind a pay wall I cant see it but I haven't seen that before. Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 01:37 Taguchi wrote:
@RvB, correct about the minimum leverage ratio, Varoufakis does gloss over that simply mentioning that banks have been very good at circumventing regulations in the past. That said, 3%?!? Better than before but still pretty horrible, no? The Americans are talking about 6% ratios for their big banks -_- . What happens when a bank is heavily investing into a sovereign, assuming it is risk-free (thus not triggering the 7% risk weighted ratio) and simply toeing the line at this 3% leverage ratio, and the sovereign defaults?
About the simplicity of the explanations, of course, it is a blog post after all. The leeway that banks have internally in calculating risk remains real, however. And they've been exceptionally good at creating extremely complicated financial instruments that might escape regulatory authorities' scrutiny, so... It's not just glossing over, it's leaving out a rule which makes his whole blog look ridiculous. You can argue whether 3% is the correct amount or not but that's not what he's doing. Banks can't just circumvent the ratio's. They're based on Loan to Value ratio's and Loan to Income ratio's which aren't open to interpretation. (talking about residential mortgages now) In your assumption even a bank with 100% equity financing would go bankrupt. Your example is also assuming the bank is a fool, diversification is one of the basic principles of any bank. What a bank would do in that situation is buy AAA bonds of multiple countries not just one and thus hedge the risk. I'm not saying these rules are perfect and that banks won't be able to circumvent them at least partly but Varoufakis isn't really making any convincing arguments.
Yeah agreed he's wrong with his example (post was dated nov 2010, I see basel iii was implemented dec 2010, perhaps this issue hadn't been settled yet or he had false information? wrong is wrong at any rate).
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Greece can elect whoever they want, they can try to negotiate whatever they want, because they are a sovereign country. What Greece can't expect is that Germany bails out Greece (or bankers for that matter) at whatever conditions Greece thinks are fair. This is completely besides what my personal position on these austerity policies is, but Germany or any other Eurozone member is not forced to do anything that was not already agreed on in contract.
Austerity may as well be stupid economically, but this isn't a matter of democracy in the sense that Greece is forced to do anything, but they can't seriously expect to dictate contracts solely from their standpoint in a union with five hundred million members and if they don't get their will start bringing up the Nazi analogies.
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On February 14 2015 02:29 Nyxisto wrote:
I think there's a difference between some shitty tabloid or if it's a political party that creates hostility. I don't see the current German government treating Greece in the same way.
Really? Remind me who exactly feeding your mainstream "indepedent" media with all kind of BS about "the lazy and corrupt greek sitting all day under the sun, eating and drinking with our money" for 5 years now?
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What about being forced to do anything? The situation is what it is, facts are what they are, do whatever you want with them, compromise or don't. Just don't play the fool about the efficacy of austerity, the entire rest of the world (outside EZ, and some within) disagrees with you.
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On February 14 2015 03:01 Toadesstern wrote:
So it's perfectly fine to insult Germany, depict them as Nazis, including both the general public as well as our politicians, literally compare austerity to all the horrible thigns the nazi regime has done. I get that people can complain, think it's stupid and all that but that's out of line for us as well while telling us to get a grip of ourselves.
At the same time you're yelling about how Bild (lol) needs to stop insulting Greece?
And because you answered to the one above: Yes Schäuble and Merkle aren't writing for BILD but you can see a difference in what Merkel said and what BILD said up there. That's the point here.
Did you ever read anything not made by a german on the austerity program ? Do you know the cost of the austerity program in human life ? Increase in diseases long forgotten, increase in suicide, increase in cancer and such ? You think when Europe ask Greece to decrease its deficit it does not have DIRECT consequence on the population ? That they just take one less month in vacation ? lol
And who's talking about BILD only ? You are. Do you mean that Merkel comments are not insulting and borderline racist ?
Tough austerity measures in Greece leave nearly a million people with no access to healthcare, leading to soaring infant mortality, HIV infection and suicide[...]
Greece’s public hospital budget was cut by 25 per cent between 2009 and 2011 and public spending on pharmaceuticals has more than halved, leading to some medicine becoming unobtainable, experts from Oxford, Cambridge and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) said.[...]
Government disease prevention schemes have also been rolled back leading to the resurgence and revival of once rare infectious diseases – including malaria, which has returned to Greece for the first time in 40 years.
“There are a whole series of infectious diseases which have been kept at bay over the past 50 or 60 years by strengthened public health efforts,” Martin McKee, professor of European public health at LSHTM and one of the report’s co-authors, told The Independent. “If you lift up your guard, as the Greek example shows, they can very easily exploit those changes.
Although reliable data on the health impact on the wider population will take several years to emerge, the Greek National School of Public Health reported a 21 per cent rise in stillbirths between 2008 and 2011, which was attributed to reduced access to prenatal services, and infant mortality also rose by 43 per cent between 2008 and 2010.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/tough-austerity-measures-in-greece-leave-nearly-a-million-people-with-no-access-to-healthcare-leading-to-soaring-infant-mortality-hiv-infection-and-suicide-9142274.html
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On February 14 2015 03:02 Taguchi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 02:29 Nyxisto wrote:
I think there's a difference between some shitty tabloid or if it's a political party that creates hostility. I don't see the current German government treating Greece in the same way. Are you serious about this? Greece just had an election, where they voted the parties that brought it to its knees (PASOK and ND) out of government, for the first time ever in the period of parliamentary democracy (after the 1967-74 junta). Greece protests the continuation of a completely useless (as a matter of fact) program and proposes a list of reasonable (according to many outsiders) tweaks to it, forgoing the hard line of the outright haircut, at no additional cost to the european taxpayer. Germany's response: The program must be implemented in its entirety as if this election never happened, no matter the reasoning behind proposed changes. Programs cannot change every time some country has an election.President Hollande: Then what is the purpose of elections? And you talk about being insulting? Your government insults the core of democracy and its various functions. Your government is the one parroting the hard line stance of 'no change whatsoever', completely disregarding the actual efficacy of their program's implementation vs its projected efficacy. I don't care one iota about reparations or whatnot, even if the claims have legal backing (hint: they do). Germany does not want to go to court over this issue and since it's a sovereign, it can do what it wants no matter what. 'Insult' is laughable. edit: Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:02 RvB wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 14 2015 01:09 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 20:36 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. For arguments against clientelism, I could propose to you some 400 to 600-page books: "Trust, the social virtues and the creation of prosperity" "Political order and political decay" Both by Francis Fukuyama. There are probably even more around, but I haven't gotten around reading them yet. I can, however, link you to a paper about clientelism and how it basically makes people governed by it incredibly dependent on the state (both for jobs and services) while gutting entrepreneurialism: https://www.academia.edu/1585129/Greek_Democracy_in_Transition_Indications_of_a_Beginning_Functional_Disentanglement_of_Clientelism_and_Parliamentarism (haven't finished reading this one yet myself) I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate. An interesting article with a different view on Syriza's victory and subsequent teaming-up with a right wing party: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-syriza-tsipras-nationalism-by-pavlos-eleftheriadis-2015-02A quote:
Rather than criticizing austerity as a well-meant policy error, [Tsipras] condemns it as an assault on Greece, a neo-colonial imposition, or a hostile ideological project gone wrong. His language is one of resistance to conquest.
Thus, it is no accident that Tsipras chose the far-right Independent Greeks party as his coalition partner. Both parties speak the same language – that of virulent nationalism – used by Europe's enemies, whether in Dresden or Moscow.
You are quoting me two book wrote by a guy who believe history would come to an end thanks to the domination of liberalism ? Anyway, you are not clear on the word reform, as alwas with that kind of term. If reforming is facing corruption, making sure people actually pay their tax, that's great, but note that you need money to do that (yes, the state need money to actually exist, and time - economist even take those costs into consideration when they evaluate the optimal level of taxation). But if behind reform you are referring to "structural" reform in the economy of the country, then it has been proven, by history, that those kind of reform always fail to achieve their gals, which is growth and employment. "I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate." Your belief are not really relevant to what a country such a greece should do. Lowering the state has been done, to an unhealthy amount : maybe look at reality ? Do you think it is a success ? It is really basic economy - when you fire people they don't consume. It's ok to push wage down if you reinvest what you have gained, or lay off some high wage people because they are useless as fuc most of the time (who tend to save more - the consumption function in keynesian economics) but when you massively lay off low wages, it instantly hit back in a decrease in consumption, and consumption represent a high % of a country GDP. It's just logic, and if you ask me it is more logic than to oppose the private and the public like every unknown economist is doing (the economy is, in fact, a circuit). Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 16:33 WhiteDog wrote:
There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed". That was one article you linked without any real evidence and we haven't heard about it since. Without any real evidence... an article from the FT about current investigation on the chief of ELSTAT is nothing you're right. Show nested quote +The head of Elstat, Greece’s new independent statistics agency, faces an official criminal investigation for allegedly inflating the scale of the country’s fiscal crisis and acting against the Greek national interest.
Andreas Georgiou, who worked at the International Monetary Fund for 20 years, was appointed in 2010 by agreement with the fund and the European Commission to clean up Greek statistics after years of official fudging by the finance ministry.[...]
The prosecutor cites a claim by professor Zoe Georganta, a senior statistician who was sacked along with other members of Elstat’s board by Evangelos Venizelos, the finance minister, earlier this year. According to Ms Georganta, the 2009 deficit was exaggerated by Elstat “so it would become larger than that of Ireland and Greece would be forced to adopt painful austerity measures”. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82b15932-18fe-11e1-92d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RYkArt5I It's behind a pay wall I cant see it but I haven't seen that before. On February 14 2015 01:37 Taguchi wrote:
@RvB, correct about the minimum leverage ratio, Varoufakis does gloss over that simply mentioning that banks have been very good at circumventing regulations in the past. That said, 3%?!? Better than before but still pretty horrible, no? The Americans are talking about 6% ratios for their big banks -_- . What happens when a bank is heavily investing into a sovereign, assuming it is risk-free (thus not triggering the 7% risk weighted ratio) and simply toeing the line at this 3% leverage ratio, and the sovereign defaults?
About the simplicity of the explanations, of course, it is a blog post after all. The leeway that banks have internally in calculating risk remains real, however. And they've been exceptionally good at creating extremely complicated financial instruments that might escape regulatory authorities' scrutiny, so... It's not just glossing over, it's leaving out a rule which makes his whole blog look ridiculous. You can argue whether 3% is the correct amount or not but that's not what he's doing. Banks can't just circumvent the ratio's. They're based on Loan to Value ratio's and Loan to Income ratio's which aren't open to interpretation. (talking about residential mortgages now) In your assumption even a bank with 100% equity financing would go bankrupt. Your example is also assuming the bank is a fool, diversification is one of the basic principles of any bank. What a bank would do in that situation is buy AAA bonds of multiple countries not just one and thus hedge the risk. I'm not saying these rules are perfect and that banks won't be able to circumvent them at least partly but Varoufakis isn't really making any convincing arguments. Yeah agreed he's wrong with his example (post was dated nov 2010, I see basel iii was implemented dec 2010, perhaps this issue hadn't been settled yet or he had false information?).
That's just not true. Ever since the elections happened it was clear as day that things would change and a compromiss had to be found. Germany as well as every other country said it was fine negotiating and changing things up as long as A PROGRAM is there. Not THE program but just something that has basic conditions to it. Just yesterday they signed a changed one (supposedly, I havn't read it) and greeks finance minister backed out of it after all, after agreeing to it earlier.
The only thing Germans as well as every one else has been hard on is that they can't tell their voters that another debt-cut is going to happen.
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On February 14 2015 03:02 Taguchi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 02:29 Nyxisto wrote:
I think there's a difference between some shitty tabloid or if it's a political party that creates hostility. I don't see the current German government treating Greece in the same way. Are you serious about this? Greece just had an election, where they voted the parties that brought it to its knees (PASOK and ND) out of government, for the first time ever in the period of parliamentary democracy (after the 1967-74 junta).
Whats the difference between what Styrizia says its going to do and the way PASOK ruled? It seems like their public spending promises are the same, no? I guess Styrizia's election also seems to have caused many Greeks to stop paying taxes too.
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On February 14 2015 03:10 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2015 03:02 Taguchi wrote:On February 14 2015 02:29 Nyxisto wrote:
I think there's a difference between some shitty tabloid or if it's a political party that creates hostility. I don't see the current German government treating Greece in the same way. Are you serious about this? Greece just had an election, where they voted the parties that brought it to its knees (PASOK and ND) out of government, for the first time ever in the period of parliamentary democracy (after the 1967-74 junta). Greece protests the continuation of a completely useless (as a matter of fact) program and proposes a list of reasonable (according to many outsiders) tweaks to it, forgoing the hard line of the outright haircut, at no additional cost to the european taxpayer. Germany's response: The program must be implemented in its entirety as if this election never happened, no matter the reasoning behind proposed changes. Programs cannot change every time some country has an election.President Hollande: Then what is the purpose of elections? And you talk about being insulting? Your government insults the core of democracy and its various functions. Your government is the one parroting the hard line stance of 'no change whatsoever', completely disregarding the actual efficacy of their program's implementation vs its projected efficacy. I don't care one iota about reparations or whatnot, even if the claims have legal backing (hint: they do). Germany does not want to go to court over this issue and since it's a sovereign, it can do what it wants no matter what. 'Insult' is laughable. edit: On February 14 2015 03:02 RvB wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On February 14 2015 01:09 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 20:36 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 08:05 WhiteDog wrote:On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote:On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote:On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote:On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote:
lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before.
Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. For arguments against clientelism, I could propose to you some 400 to 600-page books: "Trust, the social virtues and the creation of prosperity" "Political order and political decay" Both by Francis Fukuyama. There are probably even more around, but I haven't gotten around reading them yet. I can, however, link you to a paper about clientelism and how it basically makes people governed by it incredibly dependent on the state (both for jobs and services) while gutting entrepreneurialism: https://www.academia.edu/1585129/Greek_Democracy_in_Transition_Indications_of_a_Beginning_Functional_Disentanglement_of_Clientelism_and_Parliamentarism (haven't finished reading this one yet myself) I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate. An interesting article with a different view on Syriza's victory and subsequent teaming-up with a right wing party: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greece-syriza-tsipras-nationalism-by-pavlos-eleftheriadis-2015-02A quote:
Rather than criticizing austerity as a well-meant policy error, [Tsipras] condemns it as an assault on Greece, a neo-colonial imposition, or a hostile ideological project gone wrong. His language is one of resistance to conquest.
Thus, it is no accident that Tsipras chose the far-right Independent Greeks party as his coalition partner. Both parties speak the same language – that of virulent nationalism – used by Europe's enemies, whether in Dresden or Moscow.
You are quoting me two book wrote by a guy who believe history would come to an end thanks to the domination of liberalism ? Anyway, you are not clear on the word reform, as alwas with that kind of term. If reforming is facing corruption, making sure people actually pay their tax, that's great, but note that you need money to do that (yes, the state need money to actually exist, and time - economist even take those costs into consideration when they evaluate the optimal level of taxation). But if behind reform you are referring to "structural" reform in the economy of the country, then it has been proven, by history, that those kind of reform always fail to achieve their gals, which is growth and employment. "I would argue that some economic reforms, such as freeing the private sector of unhealthy amounts of government interference can be done regardless of unemployment rate." Your belief are not really relevant to what a country such a greece should do. Lowering the state has been done, to an unhealthy amount : maybe look at reality ? Do you think it is a success ? It is really basic economy - when you fire people they don't consume. It's ok to push wage down if you reinvest what you have gained, or lay off some high wage people because they are useless as fuc most of the time (who tend to save more - the consumption function in keynesian economics) but when you massively lay off low wages, it instantly hit back in a decrease in consumption, and consumption represent a high % of a country GDP. It's just logic, and if you ask me it is more logic than to oppose the private and the public like every unknown economist is doing (the economy is, in fact, a circuit). Show nested quote +On February 13 2015 16:33 WhiteDog wrote:
There were even some kind of affair about the IMF and the euro group falsificating greece deficit numbers to make them accept the "reforms". The EU is so corrupted, it´s the only thing that should be "reformed". That was one article you linked without any real evidence and we haven't heard about it since. Without any real evidence... an article from the FT about current investigation on the chief of ELSTAT is nothing you're right. Show nested quote +The head of Elstat, Greece’s new independent statistics agency, faces an official criminal investigation for allegedly inflating the scale of the country’s fiscal crisis and acting against the Greek national interest.
Andreas Georgiou, who worked at the International Monetary Fund for 20 years, was appointed in 2010 by agreement with the fund and the European Commission to clean up Greek statistics after years of official fudging by the finance ministry.[...]
The prosecutor cites a claim by professor Zoe Georganta, a senior statistician who was sacked along with other members of Elstat’s board by Evangelos Venizelos, the finance minister, earlier this year. According to Ms Georganta, the 2009 deficit was exaggerated by Elstat “so it would become larger than that of Ireland and Greece would be forced to adopt painful austerity measures”. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/82b15932-18fe-11e1-92d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RYkArt5I It's behind a pay wall I cant see it but I haven't seen that before. On February 14 2015 01:37 Taguchi wrote:
@RvB, correct about the minimum leverage ratio, Varoufakis does gloss over that simply mentioning that banks have been very good at circumventing regulations in the past. That said, 3%?!? Better than before but still pretty horrible, no? The Americans are talking about 6% ratios for their big banks -_- . What happens when a bank is heavily investing into a sovereign, assuming it is risk-free (thus not triggering the 7% risk weighted ratio) and simply toeing the line at this 3% leverage ratio, and the sovereign defaults?
About the simplicity of the explanations, of course, it is a blog post after all. The leeway that banks have internally in calculating risk remains real, however. And they've been exceptionally good at creating extremely complicated financial instruments that might escape regulatory authorities' scrutiny, so... It's not just glossing over, it's leaving out a rule which makes his whole blog look ridiculous. You can argue whether 3% is the correct amount or not but that's not what he's doing. Banks can't just circumvent the ratio's. They're based on Loan to Value ratio's and Loan to Income ratio's which aren't open to interpretation. (talking about residential mortgages now) In your assumption even a bank with 100% equity financing would go bankrupt. Your example is also assuming the bank is a fool, diversification is one of the basic principles of any bank. What a bank would do in that situation is buy AAA bonds of multiple countries not just one and thus hedge the risk. I'm not saying these rules are perfect and that banks won't be able to circumvent them at least partly but Varoufakis isn't really making any convincing arguments. Yeah agreed he's wrong with his example (post was dated nov 2010, I see basel iii was implemented dec 2010, perhaps this issue hadn't been settled yet or he had false information?). That's just not true. Ever since the elections happened it was clear as day that things would change and a compromiss had to be found. Germany as well as every other country said it was fine negotiating and changing things up as long as A PROGRAM is there. Not THE program but just something that has basic conditions to it. Just yesterday they signed a changed one (supposedly, I havn't read it) and greeks finance minister backed out of it after all, after agreeing to it earlier. The only thing Germans as well as every one else has been hard on is that they can't tell their voters that another debt-cut is going to happen.
The proposed program they would have signed yesterday was the continuation of the current program, strings attached. Current program proposes a 3% primary surplus, going up to 4.5% next year and on.
Greece is not interested in the continuation of the current program, strings attached, and proposes a different program with different strings attached, at its core a primary surplus of 1.5% for this and future years. Germany does not wish for this. As for the rumors, the Greek side tells it differently: namely that they never agreed to that draft and that Germany opposed a draft outlining the need for a different program. They add that, in a bit of brinkmanship, Schaeuble left the room before any agreement or disagreement could have been voiced. Fun stuff, huh.
Depending on your outlets for information you will get wildly different stories, that's been a fact for a long time now, especially in negotiating sessions that will inevitably contain plenty of disagreements.
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EPT
