EPTTerrorism at its finest.
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 47
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BlitzerSC
Italy8800 Posts
Terrorism at its finest. | ||
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hannahbelle
United States0 Posts
On February 11 2015 00:51 WhiteDog wrote: Most big firms ended up diversificating activities late 90 (it's changing back today) and usually buy financial product with the excess cash that they don't want to invest. Buying a financial product is investment. I could see where that isn't taught in Communist Economics 101 though. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On February 13 2015 02:16 BlitzerSC wrote: lmfao I love all these people acting like a once a country has joined the EZ, they can't leave and go back to their old currency because it would be a "catasrophe"... You don't know what might happens since it has never happened before. Terrorism at its finest. It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. | ||
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BlitzerSC
Italy8800 Posts
On February 13 2015 02:20 Nyxisto wrote: It has nothing to do with terrorism. If Greece leaves the Eurozone over night they do not have a currency, also they would be broke and could not pay out social security, wages etc.. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... | ||
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accela
Greece314 Posts
On February 13 2015 02:04 Nyxisto wrote: Argentina still had their own currency, it was just fixed to the US dollar. In case of a 'Grexit' the country would pretty much have no currency to conduct business , it would be a catastrophe. Of course would take long time to circulate the new currency and businesses would have to do heavy use of electronic transactions. Obviously everything would depend on how prepared we'll be. | ||
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Sub40APM
6336 Posts
On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote: Nope. It would be much worse. All Greek banks would fail, the pension system would collapse, and so would farming. Greece stole billions from Europe before it was caught, and when that theft was finally stopped it had to cut back on the spending, but it still received EU transfers and the bailout saved the banking system. If they leave it will be even worse than it is now. So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. . | ||
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Sub40APM
6336 Posts
On February 13 2015 01:54 accela wrote: the case of Argentina suggests that the hellish road wouldn't be long, back then when they defaulted ofc they had a rapid drop of their economy (that followed a longer drop under IMF surveillance) but they also regained very quickly and that's the point. There are a couple of macro economic differences: First, Argentina rode the tidal wave of Chinese resource consumption. Second, Greece already had an internal price contraction that was extreme but the export boom that has happened in Ireland/Spain/Portugal has not happened in Greece. And since Argentina rebounded almost completely on exporting -- and Greece seems incapable of that -- it seems like that avenue isnt open to you. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
What's the biggest problem right now ? Buying TV at the lowest price or giving job to people ? Note that food production might be the only thing in Greece that could "sustain" the internal demand. There's no "export boom" in Spain or Portugal (even if some economists present it that way), there is only an amelioration of the balance of trade that has more to do with a relative decrease in importation and slight increase in export than a "boom" in anything. It's like having 2 % growth after a 4% recession, it's not an indication of good economics. A high unemployment and decrease of wage in real term will always favor the balance of trade, that's not a boom, that's just a country flattening its demand. Pretty clear in this figure : it's the importation that are not at their pre crisis level, if they were the balance of trade would most likely be different. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/spanish-foreign-trade-exports-imports_chartbuilder-1.png?w=1024&h=576) How can I force the image to keep the size of TL posts ? It's like Greece, you can certainly find some numbers that would support that idea that Greece was actually doing better now that some time ago, but if you compare it to before the crisis / countries from outside the eurozone and take into consideration inflation, the result is ALWAYS the same : europe is doing bad. Lies, damned lies and statistics. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On February 13 2015 04:28 Nyxisto wrote: I think you can use the 'add image' thing and it gets resized automatically. Regarding the 'grexit' scenario, if I remember correctly even the current Greek finance minister said that establishment of a new relatively stable currency would take up to eight months. Greece needs to survive this period in some way. They can't just start to barter or something. If Greece wants to leave the Eurozone someone needs to take over the government expenditures in the meantime. Let's be fair, it will take more than eight months for Greece to become stable economically after a Grexit. I was just talking about long term impact of an exit from this common currency. There will be, whatever happen, a grave financial and economic instability for some time if they happen to get out of the euro zone. | ||
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Sub40APM
6336 Posts
On February 13 2015 04:02 WhiteDog wrote: But it could have a direct positive impact on growth, employment and maybe inequalities / living condition for the lowest income. What's the biggest problem right now ? Buying TV at the lowest price or giving job to people what are all these new jobs going to be in? Farming? | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On February 13 2015 04:47 Sub40APM wrote: what are all these new jobs going to be in? Farming? Anything is possible since price from exports would rise up tenfold.... Then end product will inevitably be more expensive and inferior products in terms of quality, but at least it will give jobs to greeks. Greece has been, historically, about boat, olive oil and farming. Now there's NOTHING. Would be great if its boat industry came back to life, and maybe some kind of public project in energy since it's the future. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On February 13 2015 05:01 Nyxisto wrote: One thing about the current conflict that I don't get is, Greece seems to want to negotiate some debt relief, but don't they have at least five years left until they need to start to payback the loans? What is debt re-negotiation going to do for them right now? No they have proposed things that will permit them to put aside the debt long enough to achieve some kind of growth (like separating the debt in two kinds of debt, one with a long delay for the debt in itself and one for the interests only). So they are basically saying : we want to pay the debt but we can't, so we need a long enough delay (we could talk about decades here) - and by delay they mean a COMPLETE delay, not just relief or a delay of a part of the debt that would come with obligation in terms of public policies. On February 13 2015 02:19 hannahbelle wrote: Buying a financial product is investment. I could see where that isn't taught in Communist Economics 101 though. You're funny. Do you understand that there is no problem in buying financial product, but when the revenu you get from those financial product increase up to a certain level, it means something on the structure of production and the relationship between labor and capital assets. Communist doesn't mean much, you should read Marx and understand how silly you are discarding one of the most amazing economic/sociologic/philosophic work in the history. But I guess you can continue in learning the total shit your educational system pour into your throat without any concern for reality like a good good boy. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6205 Posts
On February 13 2015 05:01 Nyxisto wrote: One thing about the current conflict that I don't get is, Greece seems to want to negotiate some debt relief, but don't they have at least five years left until they need to start to payback the loans? What is debt re-negotiation going to do for them right now? Batori argues that a major part of its debt - a 107 billion euro bailout loan from the EFSF - should not even be counted as debt because it bears no interest for the next eight years and is not due to be paid back for 30 years. source from the article I linked on the last page. The GDP linked bonds are constructed in a way that makes interest payments lower in bad times than normal bonds and higher interest in good times. So that'll give them temporary reprieve. WhiteDog covered the rest I think. | ||
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accela
Greece314 Posts
On February 13 2015 03:57 Sub40APM wrote: There are a couple of macro economic differences: First, Argentina rode the tidal wave of Chinese resource consumption. Second, Greece already had an internal price contraction that was extreme but the export boom that has happened in Ireland/Spain/Portugal has not happened in Greece. And since Argentina rebounded almost completely on exporting -- and Greece seems incapable of that -- it seems like that avenue isnt open to you. Not exactly the first few years of recovering for Argentina was based on increase of internal consumption and only then exports gained momentum. Still Greece has a higher exports figure than what Argentina had back to 2001. Of course Greece is running a trade deficit but people should also count quota on food industry because of the EU. | ||
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maartendq
Belgium3115 Posts
On February 13 2015 02:24 BlitzerSC wrote: So the same thing that is happening right now as you are typing. Got it. I guess Greece should stay in the EZ and keep "reforming" because that worked OH SO WELL until now, right? Fucking unbelievable... Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On February 13 2015 07:14 maartendq wrote: Greece's problem is as much political as much as it is economic. In fact, Greece has barely reformed at all; all they did was fire some public workers. Its government is still as rigid and bloated as it has ever been and the road to the private market is still paved with red tape. In the meantime the Greeks protest against austerity, and against Germany, who they see as the biggest source of evil in the world. Ironically, it were those same Greek voters that kept clientelistic parties like Nea Demokratia and Pasok in power for close to 35 years. Reforming Greece will hurt. Austerity hurts. Defaulting will hurt. Greece has to make a choice among a host of bad options. Either way, Greece's recovery is a long-term project. Your position put aside everything on some non argumented, easy and quick judgement. The problem with austerity is that it is contra cyclic - it is entirely economic. You cannot "reform" anything when the country has a 25 % unemployment, not to mention the "reforms" most economists / politics about have been "reforming" europe since 20 years with shitty results. | ||
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JonnyBNoHo
United States6277 Posts
On February 13 2015 05:01 Nyxisto wrote: One thing about the current conflict that I don't get is, Greece seems to want to negotiate some debt relief, but don't they have at least five years left until they need to start to payback the loans? What is debt re-negotiation going to do for them right now? There's always interest on the loans. Greece is running a primary surplus but still has debt costs that push the budget into a minor deficit. According to the budget, Greece will achieve a primary budget surplus—before taking into account debt payments—of €3.3 billion ($4.1 billion), equal to 3% of gross domestic product, next year, which is in line with the country’s bailout program. LinkOverall, the government will record only a minor budget deficit of €338 million—equivalent to just 0.2% of gross domestic product—next year, in effect marking the first balanced budget Greece has produced in four decades. More importantly the current 'bailout' program imposes conditions on Greece. Those conditions were supposedly going to help Greece reform and return to growth. But those reforms turned out to be far more painful than the Germans and others promised: ![[image loading]](https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/72070179/Greecey.PNG) | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
A little look at how the world of banking works: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2010/11/19/how-safe-will-our-banks-be-after-basle-iii/ | ||
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