|
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On February 10 2015 02:05 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 01:46 Saumure wrote:
So basically... Greece cheated in 1999 with GS to get in the euro zone and now they want money from Germany just to give it back to GS & friends? Seems legit.
Looking foreward to see Turkey, Syria, Egypt, Palestine, Irak, Iran, Koweit, Pakistan, Afghanistan (+ other countries ending in stan) asking for greek money because of war crimes commited by Alexander the great. Greece already got money from Germany, France and other Eurozone members who wanted to turn a bigger profit by lending to Greeks at a marginally higher rate than other countries. It was a fuckup on both ends. Greece borrowed too much and Eurozone lenders were complicit in that. Yet the burden of that fuckup is primarily falling on the Greeks so that German / French / Eurozone banks can avoid further losses.
The banks already took a big loss and so did the European governments with maturities on the bonds with an average of more than 30 years, the interest payments being lower as a part of gdp now than before the crisis and only interest payments on bonds for the next couple of years.
Yes it's a big fuck up on both sides but let's not pretend the Greeks are the only ones taking a loss here.
|
Swiss banks really are serious problem imo. All this tax evasion and hidden bank accounts smells like organized crime to me.
|
On February 10 2015 02:39 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 02:05 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On February 10 2015 01:46 Saumure wrote:
So basically... Greece cheated in 1999 with GS to get in the euro zone and now they want money from Germany just to give it back to GS & friends? Seems legit.
Looking foreward to see Turkey, Syria, Egypt, Palestine, Irak, Iran, Koweit, Pakistan, Afghanistan (+ other countries ending in stan) asking for greek money because of war crimes commited by Alexander the great. Greece already got money from Germany, France and other Eurozone members who wanted to turn a bigger profit by lending to Greeks at a marginally higher rate than other countries. It was a fuckup on both ends. Greece borrowed too much and Eurozone lenders were complicit in that. Yet the burden of that fuckup is primarily falling on the Greeks so that German / French / Eurozone banks can avoid further losses. The banks already took a big loss and so did the European governments with maturities on the bonds with an average of more than 30 years, the interest payments being lower as a part of gdp now than before the crisis and only interest payments on bonds for the next couple of years. Yes it's a big fuck up on both sides but let's not pretend the Greeks are the only ones taking a loss here.
Wasn't arguing that banks didn't take any loss. The current situation is just irrational. Greece has more debt than it is going to be able to repay. What's the sense in keeping it on everyone's books? A cooked book is a tasty book?
|
On February 10 2015 02:41 mdb wrote:
Swiss banks really are serious problem imo. All this tax evasion and hidden bank accounts smells like organized crime to me.
The Swiss seem to have been getting cleaner in recent years. The Irish and the Dutch are two big new players of the last two decades, mainly on the business tax side.
|
On February 10 2015 02:51 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 02:39 RvB wrote:On February 10 2015 02:05 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On February 10 2015 01:46 Saumure wrote:
So basically... Greece cheated in 1999 with GS to get in the euro zone and now they want money from Germany just to give it back to GS & friends? Seems legit.
Looking foreward to see Turkey, Syria, Egypt, Palestine, Irak, Iran, Koweit, Pakistan, Afghanistan (+ other countries ending in stan) asking for greek money because of war crimes commited by Alexander the great. Greece already got money from Germany, France and other Eurozone members who wanted to turn a bigger profit by lending to Greeks at a marginally higher rate than other countries. It was a fuckup on both ends. Greece borrowed too much and Eurozone lenders were complicit in that. Yet the burden of that fuckup is primarily falling on the Greeks so that German / French / Eurozone banks can avoid further losses. The banks already took a big loss and so did the European governments with maturities on the bonds with an average of more than 30 years, the interest payments being lower as a part of gdp now than before the crisis and only interest payments on bonds for the next couple of years. Yes it's a big fuck up on both sides but let's not pretend the Greeks are the only ones taking a loss here. Wasn't arguing that banks didn't take any loss. The current situation is just irrational. Greece has more debt than it is going to be able to repay. What's the sense in keeping it on everyone's books? A cooked book is a tasty book?
It's purely political and I agree not very rational economically but neither is restructuring Greece's debt when their government isn't doing anything to make their economy viable long term. Greece will simply run into the same problems a few years down the road.
|
Who said that greece doesn't want to do reforms and make their country economically viable? They just want to be rid of the austerity policy the eu has forced upon them, because it's not helping.
|
On February 10 2015 03:37 Noizhende wrote:
Who said that greece doesn't want to do reforms and make their country economically viable? They just want to be rid of the austerity policy the eu has forced upon them, because it's not helping.
Their new prime minister who raised salaries -- to be paid for by nothing -- and canceled sale of state owned assets -- even the ones that lose money and, again, are paid for by whom now? What happened was up until 2008 Greece was living on other peoples money, then IMF/EU bungled the bailout by both failing to convince the Greeks how bad they fucked up and then failing to explain to them an actual way out, then the Greeks went through a depression and then they elected a 1930s style populist who promised them moonpies and magic ponies.
The problem with populist-communist parties is they come with ideas straight from the 19th century. At least their Finance Minister is offering interesting alternatives -- GDP linked bonds -- but the main body of Greek politics is riddled with unreformed communists on the left and an increasingly aggressive right wing.
|
I'm not a fan of Switzerland however I don't understand the hate it gets in this thread. Yes they're doing some things that are ethically questionable but they aren't breaking any laws and have no obligation to help/work with the rest of Europe. It's understandable that they want to remain independent and we have no reason to be angry at them.
On the other hand I think EU was too passive and we should put some economical pressure on Switzerland to 'encourage' them to be more friendly towards us.
|
On February 10 2015 02:52 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 02:41 mdb wrote:
Swiss banks really are serious problem imo. All this tax evasion and hidden bank accounts smells like organized crime to me. The Swiss seem to have been getting cleaner in recent years. The Irish and the Dutch are two big new players of the last two decades, mainly on the business tax side.
On February 10 2015 02:52 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 02:41 mdb wrote:
Swiss banks really are serious problem imo. All this tax evasion and hidden bank accounts smells like organized crime to me. The Swiss seem to have been getting cleaner in recent years. The Irish and the Dutch are two big new players of the last two decades, mainly on the business tax side.
One thing often forgotten when talking about "hiding money in switzerland" is, that the same laws foreign citizens used to hide money in switzerland also applied to swiss people themselves. But we never had (or at least aren't feeling the effects of) large scale tax evasion so it is/was kinda hard to get the swiss people, direct democracy you know, to actually see the problem. Fun fact, the laws that allowed people to hide money in switzerland actually "predate" the tax evasion scams they later were used for.
As for being nationalistic... Try direct democracy, I doubt it would look much diffrent in most other countries. While switzerland has a very big right wing/nationalist party, the second biggest party is actually very leftist (one of its declared goals is actually to "overcome capitalism"). Its not as simple as it looks, naturally only the "shocking" initiatives/votes make it into the world wide media...
FFS right now i can vote for a "ban on fireworks, because they scare animals" (thats the actual name of the law). We vote on all kinds of shit and only certain stuff makes it "BIG", thats painting a very simplistic picture of Switzerland (and believe me, i hate that picture and i hate the pictures i have to see in switzerland before such votes...).
I highly doubt most of these votes would look much diffrent in germany or france, if you actually could vote on that stuff.
As for "joining the EU". While there never was a majority in switzerland to join the EU, the last ~15 years of EU policies have made damn sure that not even people that actually like the EU, like myself, want to join it anymore. At this point, as a developed country, you would have to be insane to join it willingly (btw. why don't i hear anyone bitching about Norway)...
If i remember correctly, the EU avoided actual voting in several countries because it would end in a disaster... Thats not exactly "promoting" the european "idea", especially not to a country like switzerland with its direct democracy.
Btw: The main problem in finances atm are Holdings and large firms in general not paying taxes due to various holes in the (international) tax codes. We probably should stop focussing on private persons hiding their money, while the main issue is big ass companies not paying "their fair share". But i guess private persons have a weaker lobby than firms...
|
On February 10 2015 03:10 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 02:51 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On February 10 2015 02:39 RvB wrote:On February 10 2015 02:05 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On February 10 2015 01:46 Saumure wrote:
So basically... Greece cheated in 1999 with GS to get in the euro zone and now they want money from Germany just to give it back to GS & friends? Seems legit.
Looking foreward to see Turkey, Syria, Egypt, Palestine, Irak, Iran, Koweit, Pakistan, Afghanistan (+ other countries ending in stan) asking for greek money because of war crimes commited by Alexander the great. Greece already got money from Germany, France and other Eurozone members who wanted to turn a bigger profit by lending to Greeks at a marginally higher rate than other countries. It was a fuckup on both ends. Greece borrowed too much and Eurozone lenders were complicit in that. Yet the burden of that fuckup is primarily falling on the Greeks so that German / French / Eurozone banks can avoid further losses. The banks already took a big loss and so did the European governments with maturities on the bonds with an average of more than 30 years, the interest payments being lower as a part of gdp now than before the crisis and only interest payments on bonds for the next couple of years. Yes it's a big fuck up on both sides but let's not pretend the Greeks are the only ones taking a loss here. Wasn't arguing that banks didn't take any loss. The current situation is just irrational. Greece has more debt than it is going to be able to repay. What's the sense in keeping it on everyone's books? A cooked book is a tasty book? It's purely political and I agree not very rational economically but neither is restructuring Greece's debt when their government isn't doing anything to make their economy viable long term. Greece will simply run into the same problems a few years down the road.
Greece seems to be fixing its economy more than Germany is. The Greek government is running a primary surplus and wages have fallen quite a bit. I doubt Greeks will remember the last few years fondly, so worries of moral hazard seem exaggerated. Even if they wanted to go on a borrowing binge right now - just don't make the loans! Problem solved!
In contrast, Germany hit a new current account surplus last year, which is in violation of Eurozone rules. I'm sure Germany will be swiftly punished...
|
On February 10 2015 04:46 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
In contrast, Germany hit a new current account surplus last year, which is in violation of Eurozone rules. I'm sure Germany will be swiftly punished...
We'll just throw the stuff we build into the Rhine instead of selling it, that'll help restoring the Eurozone! Honestly though we've passed a minimum wage law and consumption has increased so I don't really know what we should do.
|
On February 10 2015 04:40 Velr wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 02:52 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On February 10 2015 02:41 mdb wrote:
Swiss banks really are serious problem imo. All this tax evasion and hidden bank accounts smells like organized crime to me. The Swiss seem to have been getting cleaner in recent years. The Irish and the Dutch are two big new players of the last two decades, mainly on the business tax side. Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 02:52 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On February 10 2015 02:41 mdb wrote:
Swiss banks really are serious problem imo. All this tax evasion and hidden bank accounts smells like organized crime to me. The Swiss seem to have been getting cleaner in recent years. The Irish and the Dutch are two big new players of the last two decades, mainly on the business tax side. One thing often forgotten when talking about "hiding money in switzerland" is, that the same laws foreign citizens used to hide money in switzerland also applied to swiss people themselves. But we never had (or at least aren't feeling the effects of) large scale tax evasion so it is/was kinda hard to get the swiss people, direct democracy you know, to actually see the problem. Fun fact, the laws that allowed people to hide money in switzerland actually "predate" the tax evasion scams they later were used for. As for being nationalistic... Try direct democracy, I doubt it would look much diffrent in most other countries. While switzerland has a very big right wing/nationalist party, the second biggest party is actually very leftist (one of its declared goals is actually to "overcome capitalism"). Its not as simple as it looks, naturally only the "shocking" initiatives/votes make it into the world wide media... FFS right now i can vote for a "ban on fireworks, because they scare animals" (thats the actual name of the law). We vote on all kinds of shit and only certain stuff makes it "BIG", thats painting a very simplistic picture of Switzerland (and believe me, i hate that picture and i hate the pictures i have to see in switzerland before such votes...). I highly doubt most of these votes would look much diffrent in germany or france, if you actually could vote on that stuff. As for "joining the EU". While there never was a majority in switzerland to join the EU, the last ~15 years of EU policies have made damn sure that not even people that actually like the EU, like myself, want to join it anymore. At this point, as a developed country, you would have to be insane to join it willingly (btw. why don't i hear anyone bitching about Norway)... If i remember correctly, the EU avoided actual voting in several countries because it would end in a disaster... Thats not exactly "promoting" the european "idea", especially not to a country like switzerland with its direct democracy. Btw: The main problem in finances atm are Holdings and large firms in general not paying taxes due to various holes in the (international) tax codes. We probably should stop focussing on private persons hiding their money, while the main issue is big ass companies not paying "their fair share". But i guess private persons have a weaker lobby than firms...
That sounds interesting.
Would you say you're in favor of the direct democracy you are under? Who comes up with the laws, too? I imagine the politicians or head of cantons must, right?
I should read up on that. Seems pretty fascinating.
|
I remember a few months ago they had a vote on whether the banks should be forced to hold one fifth of their assets in gold, which would have forced the banks to buy 1500 tons of gold. Direct democracy sure is exciting.
|
On February 10 2015 05:03 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 04:46 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
In contrast, Germany hit a new current account surplus last year, which is in violation of Eurozone rules. I'm sure Germany will be swiftly punished... We'll just throw the stuff we build into the Rhine instead of selling it, that'll help restoring the Eurozone! Honestly though we've passed a minimum wage law and consumption has increased so I don't really know what we should do.
Encourage more consumption and investment. Hardly painful things. German productivity growth has been absolutely terrible over the past two decades, so there should absolutely be room for improvement on that area. And really, if you can't find a good use for your own money, why fault the Greeks, the Spanish and the rest for not being able to find a good use either?
|
Productivity here is not top notch but it's very far from being terrible, that's pretty much just a stereotype.
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tsdec310&plugin=1
Also I'd think there is a difference between finding good use for your own money and good use for creditor money. Also don't act like this is a German only stance. the Baltic nations and Poland pretty much hold the same stance when it comes to Greece. It's not only the evil rich creditor nations that are unwilling to alleviate Greece's debt.
|
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
germany's lack of domestic consumption has been a major driver for eurozone imbalance.
|
On February 10 2015 04:46 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 10 2015 03:10 RvB wrote:On February 10 2015 02:51 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On February 10 2015 02:39 RvB wrote:On February 10 2015 02:05 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On February 10 2015 01:46 Saumure wrote:
So basically... Greece cheated in 1999 with GS to get in the euro zone and now they want money from Germany just to give it back to GS & friends? Seems legit.
Looking foreward to see Turkey, Syria, Egypt, Palestine, Irak, Iran, Koweit, Pakistan, Afghanistan (+ other countries ending in stan) asking for greek money because of war crimes commited by Alexander the great. Greece already got money from Germany, France and other Eurozone members who wanted to turn a bigger profit by lending to Greeks at a marginally higher rate than other countries. It was a fuckup on both ends. Greece borrowed too much and Eurozone lenders were complicit in that. Yet the burden of that fuckup is primarily falling on the Greeks so that German / French / Eurozone banks can avoid further losses. The banks already took a big loss and so did the European governments with maturities on the bonds with an average of more than 30 years, the interest payments being lower as a part of gdp now than before the crisis and only interest payments on bonds for the next couple of years. Yes it's a big fuck up on both sides but let's not pretend the Greeks are the only ones taking a loss here. Wasn't arguing that banks didn't take any loss. The current situation is just irrational. Greece has more debt than it is going to be able to repay. What's the sense in keeping it on everyone's books? A cooked book is a tasty book? It's purely political and I agree not very rational economically but neither is restructuring Greece's debt when their government isn't doing anything to make their economy viable long term. Greece will simply run into the same problems a few years down the road. Greece seems to be fixing its economy more than Germany is. The Greek government is running a primary surplus and wages have fallen quite a bit. But exports havent increased unlike in the PIIG. Greek's just fired everyone and then vacillate in misery. They need more reforms just like everyone else. But you are right, exporting your way to employment is a dumb way to get out of a recession when everyone except America is trying the same strategy.
|
On February 10 2015 05:34 Nyxisto wrote:Productivity here is not top notch but it's very far from being terrible, that's pretty much just a stereotype. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tsdec310&plugin=1Also I'd think there is a difference between finding good use for your own money and good use for creditor money. Also don't act like this is a German only stance. the Baltic nations and Poland pretty much hold the same stance when it comes to Greece. It's not only the evil rich creditor nations that are unwilling to alleviate Greece's debt.
Productivity growth, I mean. You haven't been investing in your own economy much, and productivity growth has suffered. You're still and advanced country, so obviously productivity is high.
![[image loading]](https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/72070179/EZProd.PNG)
Source
And yes it's not just Germany that's unwilling, but Germany is at the helm right now and Merkel is claiming that Germany holds zero blame for Greece's situation. Ridiculous.
|
Your article itself says that labour productivity per hour worked makes more sense and Germany is in a somewhat better spot there. (because the first graph you posted leaves half-time work/full time work composition out).
But I also don't think that a few percents in labour productivity would change anything meaningful. Greece simply can't compete with Germany under a single currency, the debt is piling up and the Northern & Eastern European countries are not willing to give in to any more debt relief. I don't think the Grexit scenario is so unlikely anymore.
|
On February 10 2015 06:30 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Productivity growth, I mean. You haven't been investing in your own economy much, and productivity growth has suffered. You're still and advanced country, so obviously productivity is high. SourceAnd yes it's not just Germany that's unwilling, but Germany is at the helm right now and Merkel is claiming that Germany holds zero blame for Greece's situation. Ridiculous.
See now you are just cherrypicking data to support your argument. Which by the way doesn't make sense. What does it matter if prouctivity growth is low? The same way that actual living standards is far more important than living standards growth rate, so it is with actual productivity. Germany has one of the highest productivity in the world. This is just unjustified Germany bashing.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
