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On December 09 2025 05:49 Nebuchad wrote:
Currently the US is set to have elections where Trump will get demolished, so the EU is just waiting for that to happen. If Trump stays in power despite losing elections that's probably a point where things would change. I'm sure most politicians in EU understand that once Trump loses power someone like him will probably get power back in 4 or 8 years, but I'm equally sure that most politicians act with the absolute certainty that in the middle to long term we are already fucked so it doesn't matter too much. Someone like Trump is not going to be Trump tho.
Trump really is a unique kind of complete insanity (because mentally he is essentially a child).
Someone like Vance might be antagonistic towards Europe but he could be negotiated with and there would be a long term coherent view coming out of the US.
Trump is none of that.
The simplest solution for the EU is to simply wait out Trump and deal with the comparative less insanity that comes after.
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On December 09 2025 07:27 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2025 05:49 Nebuchad wrote:
Currently the US is set to have elections where Trump will get demolished, so the EU is just waiting for that to happen. If Trump stays in power despite losing elections that's probably a point where things would change. I'm sure most politicians in EU understand that once Trump loses power someone like him will probably get power back in 4 or 8 years, but I'm equally sure that most politicians act with the absolute certainty that in the middle to long term we are already fucked so it doesn't matter too much. Someone like Trump is not going to be Trump tho. Trump really is a unique kind of complete insanity (because mentally he is essentially a child). Someone like Vance might be antagonistic towards Europe but he could be negotiated with and there would be a long term coherent view coming out of the US. Trump is none of that. The simplest solution for the EU is to simply wait out Trump and deal with the comparative less insanity that comes after.
This sounds like a very optimistic position. Remember that we also thought that George W. Bush was a uniquely bad president.
We should not discount the option that in 4-8 years we get someone even worse, more insane and stupider than Trump.
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Vance is nothing without Trump. close to no charisma, pull and standing within the R party or the base.
his only purpose as a sorta Silicon Valley/Peter Thiel creation is to get their interests across.
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It won't matter if they have zero charisma if they get things far enough. There is a massive distance between thinking Trump's successor is doing a bad job and being unpopular to help democrats reverse the course. Even with Democrats winning elections, fixing things will be slow. Waiting things out seems very risky.
I think there should be a crisis among centre and moderate right-wing politicians in Europe. Explaining Trump, MAGA, and other far-right parties without criticising the economic system, their own policies, and their own narratives would be really hard without ending on far-right territory. After recognising the problems and dangers, they would have to avoid the far-right as allies and reinvent themselves. Maybe even work with left-wing parties, but that would put their own power in jeopardy. Otherwise, they need to balance themselves as close to the far-right as they dare while trying to turn the ship.
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Northern Ireland26225 Posts
On December 09 2025 15:28 Doublemint wrote:
Vance is nothing without Trump. close to no charisma, pull and standing within the R party or the base.
his only purpose as a sorta Silicon Valley/Peter Thiel creation is to get their interests across.
The one silver lining of Trump’s mystifying appeal is it does also seem to be something others can’t emulate easily.
I wonder if more traditional conservative types are also adopting a ‘wait it out’ policy. There’s sure to be some kind of post-Trump power vacuum. I still think it’s very possible MAGA wins out, but I wouldn’t rule out a complete course correction, or at least a more equitable coalition between various wings
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On December 09 2025 22:16 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2025 15:28 Doublemint wrote:
Vance is nothing without Trump. close to no charisma, pull and standing within the R party or the base.
his only purpose as a sorta Silicon Valley/Peter Thiel creation is to get their interests across. The one silver lining of Trump’s mystifying appeal is it does also seem to be something others can’t emulate easily. I wonder if more traditional conservative types are also adopting a ‘wait it out’ policy. There’s sure to be some kind of post-Trump power vacuum. I still think it’s very possible MAGA wins out, but I wouldn’t rule out a complete course correction, or at least a more equitable coalition between various wings
The problem with a course correction is that it's not really an anomaly that someone like Trump would take over a party like the Republicans. They chose to pander to racists as an electoral strategy, but that was generations ago people who did that as a strategy are all dead now, in terms of people who are truly invested in politics and could be active members you're only left with people who grew up hearing the pandering and thought "Yeah that's the party for me, I like what they're saying". I'm afraid that the people who could course correct, when they were young, didn't join the party at all, because they didn't like what it said.
The only way this can change, in my perspective, is if the Dems move quite a bit to the left. It would create a vacuum in the center right that politicians could try and fill with conservatives that are actually conservative as opposed to reactionary.
But yeah, I can't lie I'm not really feeling it. There are like five or six obstacles to clear to get there, and our odds of clearing any of them are not good.
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On December 09 2025 22:16 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2025 15:28 Doublemint wrote:
Vance is nothing without Trump. close to no charisma, pull and standing within the R party or the base.
his only purpose as a sorta Silicon Valley/Peter Thiel creation is to get their interests across. The one silver lining of Trump’s mystifying appeal is it does also seem to be something others can’t emulate easily. I wonder if more traditional conservative types are also adopting a ‘wait it out’ policy. There’s sure to be some kind of post-Trump power vacuum. I still think it’s very possible MAGA wins out, but I wouldn’t rule out a complete course correction, or at least a more equitable coalition between various wings
I am afraid this is more a function of the internet rather than simply Trump's own doing. Once he is gone, a new champion of idiocracy will be "elected" and he will get their votes. Idiocracy is rising everywhere: Milei, AfD, Brexit/Reform, that guy from Romania who got banned from the election, Braun and Konfederacja in Poland. Those people hold insane, often mutually exclusive views, and yet they are gaining traction and winning offices. I blame the internet as an indirect cause and layers of gullibility that always existed plus malicious actors as a direct cause.
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On December 09 2025 22:16 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2025 15:28 Doublemint wrote:
Vance is nothing without Trump. close to no charisma, pull and standing within the R party or the base.
his only purpose as a sorta Silicon Valley/Peter Thiel creation is to get their interests across. The one silver lining of Trump’s mystifying appeal is it does also seem to be something others can’t emulate easily. I wonder if more traditional conservative types are also adopting a ‘wait it out’ policy. There’s sure to be some kind of post-Trump power vacuum. I still think it’s very possible MAGA wins out, but I wouldn’t rule out a complete course correction, or at least a more equitable coalition between various wings
yep. say what you will about Trump, that man is a character made for the TV audience.
too bad they did not put him in a jungle camp/the "I am a celebrity get me out of here" show with the other C guard of his original peers.
becoming King there might have been enough for him. and altered the fate of the whole planet!
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So the EU - Mercosur trade deal finally passed the national vote stage. Next up being parliament, will be a lot of interesting farming lobbying there and we'll see if it passes.
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On January 10 2026 23:54 Yurie wrote:
So the EU - Mercosur trade deal finally passed the national vote stage. Next up being parliament, will be a lot of interesting farming lobbying there and we'll see if it passes.
Farmers over here are not happy. Regional highway blocks are already happening, and they are considering a very slow drive to Madrid along those highways. It's gonna be a clusterfuck. And I mostly agree with them. I'm in favor of better trade with other areas of the world. I'm not in favor of having strict rules for our own agriculture and then undercutting them with imports that don't have the same regulations. I AM a fan of our regulations, I just think imports should either adhere to them or have import taxes that make it unprofitable in comparison.
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I'm okay with increasing trade with Mercosur even if it hurts European farmers a little, as long as the overall benefit for the whole union is big and the income from taxing that trade is spent adequately. I have no idea if this deal can guarantee that. From my perspective it looked like the EU reacted poorly to the flood of Ukrainian grain some time ago so my trust in promises that European farmers have little to worry about is limited, but I'm still moderately optimistic.
Some of my city friends and colleagues really hate farmers because they consider them one of the most entitled groups in the country. I'm not as hostile but I do think farmer arguments should always be taken with a huge grain of salt. They earned that.
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On January 11 2026 04:40 Sent. wrote:
I'm okay with increasing trade with Mercosur even if it hurts European farmers a little, as long as the overall benefit for the whole union is big and the income from taxing that trade is spent adequately. I have no idea if this deal can guarantee that. From my perspective it looked like the EU reacted poorly to the flood of Ukrainian grain some time ago so my trust in promises that European farmers have little to worry about is limited, but I'm still moderately optimistic.
Some of my city friends and colleagues really hate farmers because they consider them one of the most entitled groups in the country. I'm not as hostile but I do think farmer arguments should always be taken with a huge grain of salt. They earned that.
I'm not worried as much about the farmers. I agree with your assessment. But I do think that we have pretty strict regulations on our agriculture, and I generally agree with them and actually feel a lot of them regarding the use of pesticides should be made stricter. We can't both do that and allow importing products from outside the EU that have far laxer rules. For the same reason when shouldn't just bend to US demands for the same kind of relaxation of standards.
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from everything i read about the mercosur deal, there are quotas in place both for agriculture and meat products and if they're exceeded, EU imposes taxes on them. also, everything coming to EU from there will need to respect EU quality standards; so whatthefuck are you people talking about there?.
some minor impact will exist but mostly its about populism and subsidy protection here.
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Farmers have strong lobbies and are well organised.
Everything that isn't immediatly beneficial to them they fight tooth and nail, no matter if it's a small or big change.
One doesn't have to like it or think they fight the good fight but it's not something weird, their organisations/unions are just doing the job they exist for.
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I remmber when our farmers were fightining tooth and nail against joining the EU. Now they go beserk when someone even mentions their EU subsidies.
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Seems like the authoritarian / right wing axis is putting the peddal to the metal to keep their fifth column buddy Orban in power in Hungary:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/16/rightwing-leaders-endorse-viktor-orban-video-election
We have all the hits, Meloni, Salvini, LePenn, Nethyanahu, Alice Weidel, the who's who of global movement to fuck Europe over is here to tell Hungarians to vote for the guy who's been robbing them blind for decades.
Now all we need is for daddy's Trump and Putin to record a video and we're golden.
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Aww, I was hoping Meloni won't repeat Salvini's mistakes by placing Italy in the camp nobody wants to work with unless it's absolutely necessary. It's possible to remain friendly to uhhh "alternative" right without straight up endorsing antidemocratic leaders like Orban.
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Well, honestly, she's been a positive surprise for me most of her tenure so far.
Good on Ukraine, doesn't cow tow to Putin and since she's not bad looking she seems to have a knack for handling Trump while not taking his side against the EU.
Whatever her issues at home are, and there are plenty, those are borne of the mandate she got from Italians who want and wanted right wingers for a decade now basically, what she delivers on the EU stage is pretty good, she's way, way better then Orban or Fico, that's for sure.
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EPT
