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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
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maartendq
Belgium3115 Posts
On July 01 2015 22:58 RapidTiger wrote: So since Greece has defaulted, what's the possibility of Greece officially exiting the Eurozone in the next week or so? There's no formal mechanism for a country leaving either the Eurozone or the EU, so the chances of that happening in the coming week(s) or even months is pretty much zero. | ||
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phil.ipp
Austria1067 Posts
On July 01 2015 23:21 maartendq wrote: There's no formal mechanism for a country leaving either the Eurozone or the EU, so the chances of that happening in the coming week(s) or even months is pretty much zero. hm i dont think thats true, with the lissabon agreement they made a formal option to leave the EU. i dont think something like that exists for the EURO but i dont think its necessary. also, why are you talking about the EU? what possible reason could the EU have to stop trading with greece Oo | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22088 Posts
On July 01 2015 23:26 phil.ipp wrote: hm i dont think thats true, with the lissabon agreement they made a formal option to leave the EU. i dont think something like that exists for the EURO but i dont think its necessary. also, why are you talking about the EU? what possible reason could the EU have to stop trading with greece Oo I believe the generally accepted way of leaving the Eurozone, which indeed does not have an existing way, is to leave the EU. Hence why the 2 are often discussed together. | ||
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phil.ipp
Austria1067 Posts
also only because there is no way formulated in some document, doesnt mean there is NO WAY to do it. it can be done the same way all other countrys made currency changes through out history. with all its positive and negative effects. i think there is no formal way of leaving the EURO zone, cause it would only be wasted paper, you cant gain anything from writing the process down. its still the same process. on the other hand there is much to gain from a formal exit of the EU, cause i bet they made various deals how to still be trading partners even after exiting. if you exit the EURO it has per definition no influence anymore in your country, hence there is no need to establish some agreements after what happens when you exit. | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On July 01 2015 23:10 GoTuNk! wrote: "Not to mention, raising wages at the same time as inflation means no one gets better? lol (It's called a nominal raise in wages and real wage remains the same) " I adressed that, as I said above, just seemed absurd to me. So you believe people should riot for no real benefits? (I.e nominal increase in wages?) You misunderstood me : I was not trying to oppose the south versus the north as to point out which of those two models is the best, I was just pointing out that in the south, an increase in GDP is usually followed by an increase in wage and in inflation - which explain why wage in Greece increased prior to the crisis despite minor increase in productivity (the growth back then was the highest in Europe) - because of the political climate that is more egalitarian than northern country. Of course it doesn't mean it's the most optimal solution from an economical standpoint : as you point out, since most of the wage increase tend to end up in inflation, it mean that the sudden increase in demand cannot be matched by an increase in offer (and thus that it create an increase in price - inflation - and that real wage do not increase as much as nominal wage - and we could even add that usually those country tend to respond to the increase in demand by increasing imports and thus deteriorating their current account). (Altho it's not binary as you may think, usually inflation, nominal wage and real wage increase all together) But that was not my point at all, I was just pointing out that the wage policy in the south is different than in north due to different political climate. ECB Founder Issing Says Idea of Irreversible Euro Was ‘Illusion’ : Trust between euro-area countries has deteriorated so badly that the idea that the single currency can’t be undone is now dead, former European Central Bank Executive Board member Otmar Issing said. “Mutual trust is certainly not there any more, and it will be very difficult to restore,” Issing, 79, said in an interview. “The idea -- you might now say the illusion -- was and is that having joined the euro, it is irreversible.” Seventeen years after Issing began as the chief economist of the brand-new ECB in Frankfurt, the currency zone is wracked by turmoil surrounding Greece and its possible exit from the bloc. Still, while today’s policy makers insist the region can cope from the fallout of a country leaving, Issing said such an event may even strengthen the resolve of remaining members. “I would be quite confident that if governments and people in other European countries see the mess, the chaos, which will accompany Greece for some time to come, they will undertake the utmost efforts to avoid repetition of such a situation,” he said. “All the others have to really commit themselves.” Issing, who served on the board of the Bundesbank before joining the ECB in 1998, developed the new institution’s two-pillar approach to monetary policy, which pairs economic analysis with reference to monetary aggregates. He now teaches at the Goethe University in Frankfurt. If Greece stays in the euro area while managing to renege on its debt commitments, the coherence of the monetary area could be severely damaged, he warned, citing the presence of the anti-austerity Podemos movement in Spain as a likely beneficiary. “If the Greeks can get away with the violation of all promises, commitments, then I think it will have a contagion effect on other countries,” he said. “Podemos will then tell their voters: ‘the hardships are not necessary.’ Then we’ll be entering into a monetary union very different from what was intended -- it will be the end of the zone of fiscal solidity.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/ecb-founder-issing-says-idea-of-irreversible-euro-was-illusion- | ||
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phantomlancer23
733 Posts
If you cant control your economy you cant have a Sovereign democracy.Greeks gave their Sovereign right of printing money in goodwill and when they were found in a difficult possition they were bitten hard.Greeks were on the ground and the germans were kicking them with hatred and they saw an oppportunity to steal everything from them. The problem isnt mainly the debt, this can be erased in an afternoon by the right goverment.The problems of Greek people are two.How and who. 1.People dont know how to take back their country.The majority cant understand that the national currency is the tool tha will free them.They see the euro as a neutral tool they cant understand that is the main reason for all the problems. 2.They cant find the right political staff that ll insipre and propose.There are no politicians who ll show the way and convince them to get their support yet.Greece needs politicians who will present a logical and belivable technical way to leave euro and restart the economy. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18215 Posts
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
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ACrow
Germany6583 Posts
In the matter I don't disagree, if a nation wants to be completely sovereign in their economic choices, without compromise, it absolutely needs a national currency. Then the only one it has to compromise with is reality, which unfortunately is quite hard to blame. I think the leap of faith that was taken in the 80s and 90s when the Euro was born, that a currency union would inevitably lead to a political union, has utterly failed. It seems to lead only to mistrust and hate when you don't even have a common public exchange of opinion, no common media, no common politic institutions that have a real say and are not just technocratic faceless institutions. This makes me really sad. | ||
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nunez
Norway4003 Posts
On July 01 2015 19:29 Taguchi wrote: if the promise of a left turning governement instead turns into yet another tentacle of international finance capital hellbent on suffocating your social programs, it would not be the first time. it would be both disappointing and bitter, but i belieb:+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CI0e71lWwAAJ560.jpg) ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CI0e77UWIAARWrw.jpg) I can't fucking believe this. So we have now implemented capital controls (which already bear a dire cost for the economy, including SO MANY cancellations from tourists, loss of trust in the banking system, immense loss of revenue etc) so we can (maybe, hopefully) get a deal protecting 30% reduced VAT in the islands, majority state-owned ADMIE (part of public power corporation) as a standalone corporation instead of fully privatized (meaning it'll get privatized soon enough anyway), and a small postponement of various harsh pension cuts. No mention of taxing profits instead, 0 redistributive measures that were previously the whole point about Syriza's offer. Complete capitulation, 3 days into the referendum process. Un-fucking-believable. We would've been better off with bloody Samaras after all. I'll come up with creditor answer to this right now: Capital controls mean added contraction for the Greek economy so the 29th June proposal will not be able to deliver on specified program targets. Thus, it will be necessary to adopt new fiscal measures amounting to a couple extra billion. Off wages/pensions, of course. Oh and we don't trust you one bit so you better form a grand coalition government with a technocrat as the PM, let's see... umm... yes, this former Central Banker will do nicely. Have a nice day, thanks for playing in the game! Syriza just dealt a deathblow to the credibility of leftist movements everywhere. My view, maybe it is wrong, but I really don't see it being wrong. they have strength and will be able to dominate us, but social processes can be arrested neither by crime nor force. src On July 01 2015 22:21 warding wrote: that is an unreasonably boring opinion, and i would rather be inflicting damage in any kind of way to any sort of vehicle in any street than accepting it.Having more civilized public debates, fewer street protests and strikes and little popularity for extremist/populist parties is now a bad thing? It beats burning Uber cars in the streets of Paris IMO. | ||
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Tula
Austria1544 Posts
On July 02 2015 01:43 phantomlancer23 wrote: An American politician said give me the right to print money and i give you the right to make laws.Greece is under german occupation,you dont have to see tanks in the streets to realize that.In the modern World you dont need tanks.A country that cant define the VAT for the hotels isnt a free country. If you cant control your economy you cant have a Sovereign democracy.Greeks gave their Sovereign right of printing money in goodwill and when they were found in a difficult possition they were bitten hard.Greeks were on the ground and the germans were kicking them with hatred and they saw an oppportunity to steal everything from them. If by "steal everything from them" you mean "sink billions of our money into them".... You seem to be missing the point, Greece is free to do whatever they want with their taxes and plans/reforms. That is why no one could stop Tsipras when he decided to get rid of a number of reforms his predecessors forced through in march. What they cannot do is do stuff however they want and then expect to get money from programs that were defined differently. Seriously, this entire debate is insane... If you don't want our money okay fair enough, go back to the Drachmae and enjoy. Heck I'd even go for releasing 75% of your debt as a parting gift simply to be done with this shit. Austria has spent 8 billion euro on Greece since the crisis, frankly I can think of quite a few other things we could have done with that money, among them paying back our own debts so that my generation doesn't have to spend the next 20 years paying them. If you want us to spend even more money to keep you afloat you better damn well believe that those reforms have to happen before we send another cent. How dare Angela Merkel do this to Greece! How can she not is the better question? If she (and the entire Eurozone) had caved and simply given Greece yet another extension (remember we extended the entire aid program from February simply to give your new goverment time) there would be flat out revolts in quite a few other euro countries. | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
Not that it matters but the last request from Greece for a loan specifies that the entire sum of said loan would be used to pay back creditors, not to finance anything in Greece. This will most likely happen as soon as the leftist government is out of the picture - then you can rage some more about your money being wasted yet again, no worries. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
There are probably banks we could've let gone broke but the system-relevant banks are called system relevant for a reason. There are real companies in Greece and elsewhere dependent on banks not defaulting, it's not just guys in suits in Frankfurt. | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
And what about the IMF sustainability analysis leaked in the Guardian yesterday, which was sent to the German parliament? It rather clearly pointed out that Greek debt is unsustainable under even the most positive (however unlikely) scenario. Why does Merkel (safe to assume that SPD is also of this opinion?) insist that 'the Greek debt is sustainable'? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18215 Posts
On July 02 2015 05:04 Nyxisto wrote: debt restructuring is a normal process. If Greece would be running a stable economy paying back old loans with new loans at lower interest makes quite a lot of sense. Also a good degree of bank saving was probably necessary, as we simply need banks. Especially Greek banks because they hold a ton of government debt. There are probably banks we could've let gone broke but the system-relevant banks are called system relevant for a reason. Not only that, but most other European countries realized they should plan for the best, but prepare for the worst, which meant to get the hell out of dodge (aka Greece). If Greece had defaulted in 2010, most of the banks in Europe, and with them most of the European economy, would have been fucked. Just as fucked as in 2007/8. However, by restructuring the debts, 5 years later, Greece defaulting on their debts does not cause major problems in the banking system (it does mean that all other countries in Europe suddenly have to carry the Greek debt, which the electorate is understandably unhappy about). It'll cause bumps and turbulence, but not the major disaster it would have 5 years ago. Was it a good idea to do all this? Maybe not, but it's done. Europe bailed everyone out except Greece. It's up to Greece to bail themselves out now. They could simply have accepted the austerity packet, negotiated for different terms and figured out a way to play ball. Instead, Tsipras maneuvred himself into a terrible position through political incompetence. He did that at the worst possible time, namely by the time the rest of Europe is about ready to just drop Greece by the roadside. It's very sad for the Greek population, but the truth is that by shoring other economies up against a Greek defaulting, they have put Greece into a position where the Troika can dictate the terms, as opposed to 5 years ago, when Greece had far more leverage (by threatening to take everybody else down with them as well). | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On July 02 2015 05:23 Taguchi wrote: Right, Nyxisto. Why then do you think Tula believes his/her country spent all that money on Greece's black hole? Why was there ever a need to frame this argument precisely this way? And what about the IMF sustainability analysis leaked in the Guardian yesterday, which was sent to the German parliament? It rather clearly pointed out that Greek debt is unsustainable under even the most positive (however unlikely) scenario. Why does Merkel (safe to assume that SPD is also of this opinion?) insist that 'the Greek debt is sustainable'? Is this the same analysis mentioned here? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/it-s-not-all-greek-to-voters-as-key-debt-document-mistranslated Apparently that analysis was (deliberately?) mistranslated. | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
On July 02 2015 05:32 Nyxisto wrote: Is this the same analysis mentioned here? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/it-s-not-all-greek-to-voters-as-key-debt-document-mistranslated Apparently that analysis was (deliberately?) mistranslated. Um, no I don't think so. It is unpublished (afaik), reported by the Guardian yesterday, linked to a couple times in this thread, supposedly sent to German MPs. I generally go for the source material and avoid translations, I haven't read the document obviously, nor the one you refer to. http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/30/greek-debt-troika-analysis-says-significant-concessions-still-needed Then there is this helpful FAQ by the IMF itself: http://www.imf.org/external/country/grc/greecefaq.htm#one Pretty clear call for debt relief if you ask me. It is in fact spelled out in the IMF FAQ. | ||
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tshi
United States2495 Posts
Belgium trolls France by minting a $2.50 coin when france got mad and blocked them for doing a $2.00 coin. | ||
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ImFromPortugal
Portugal1368 Posts
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