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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 144

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
Faust852
Profile Joined February 2012
Luxembourg4004 Posts
July 02 2015 06:55 GMT
#2861
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6313 Posts
July 02 2015 08:11 GMT
#2862
On July 02 2015 06:56 Taguchi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 05:32 Nyxisto wrote:
On July 02 2015 05:23 Taguchi wrote:
Right, Nyxisto. Why then do you think Tula believes his/her country spent all that money on Greece's black hole? Why was there ever a need to frame this argument precisely this way?

And what about the IMF sustainability analysis leaked in the Guardian yesterday, which was sent to the German parliament? It rather clearly pointed out that Greek debt is unsustainable under even the most positive (however unlikely) scenario. Why does Merkel (safe to assume that SPD is also of this opinion?) insist that 'the Greek debt is sustainable'?


Is this the same analysis mentioned here?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/it-s-not-all-greek-to-voters-as-key-debt-document-mistranslated

Apparently that analysis was (deliberately?) mistranslated.


Um, no I don't think so. It is unpublished (afaik), reported by the Guardian yesterday, linked to a couple times in this thread, supposedly sent to German MPs. I generally go for the source material and avoid translations, I haven't read the document obviously, nor the one you refer to.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/30/greek-debt-troika-analysis-says-significant-concessions-still-needed

Then there is this helpful FAQ by the IMF itself: http://www.imf.org/external/country/grc/greecefaq.htm#one

Pretty clear call for debt relief if you ask me. It is in fact spelled out in the IMF FAQ.

Yes it is that one Nyxisto.

The GUardian article quotes the same sustainability analysis as Reuters which I already linked at page 140.

Both articles use this quote:
"It is clear that the policy slippages and uncertainties of the last months have made the achievement of the 2012 targets impossible under any scenario,"


The Guardian only quotes the debt to GDP ratio which will remain above the level which the IMF regards as sustainable but they leave out something pretty important which is in the same analysis.

The analysis stresses however, that focusing on the debt-to-GDP ratio does not give an accurate picture of debt sustainability and that this is better reflected by gross financing needs of a country.

Measured like this, Greece has no sustainability problem in any scenario, but would require help to improve the sustainability, via for example an extension of maturities, under the third, least favourable option.

"This gross financing need metric points to no sustainability issues under the first two scenarios," the document said.

"The gross financing needs remain well below 15 percent threshold, a threshold mentioned in IMF guidance for this criterion. Under this scenario, significant reprofiling of the stock of debt and concessional lending terms would improve sustainability," it said.

"Reprofiling of payment flows does not imply nominal haircut or budgetary costs for creditors. This would also entail further NPV gains for Greece, and strengthen the sustainability of the Greek public debt in the long-run."


reuters source

InVerno
Profile Joined May 2011
258 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-02 10:47:41
July 02 2015 10:45 GMT
#2863
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.


In this day and age, looks impossible to be honest. Northern countries with their racism of "hardworking guys" vs "everyday fiesta guys". Southern countries accusing northern ones to be inhuman blackmailers. No will whatsoever for a fiscal unity, at the point the country you're writing from is basically a fiscal paradise in the middle of the Europe. There's no collaboration even between PIGS as we see in the Greek debate, where the countries that have "reformed" their regulations are accusing Greece even more than the creditors. Nationalism raising in all countries, and all this leaded by the blind gluttony of Germany, that wants achieve for the third time in history their failure leading Europe. And the "best" is yet to come when the Euro irreversibility myth will vanish. Waiting for a miracle.
Faust852
Profile Joined February 2012
Luxembourg4004 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-02 10:59:07
July 02 2015 10:58 GMT
#2864
On July 02 2015 19:45 InVerno wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.


In this day and age, looks impossible to be honest. Northern countries with their racism of "hardworking guys" vs "everyday fiesta guys". Southern countries accusing northern ones to be inhuman blackmailers. No will whatsoever for a fiscal unity, at the point the country you're writing from is basically a fiscal paradise in the middle of the Europe. There's no collaboration even between PIGS as we see in the Greek debate, where the countries that have "reformed" their regulations are accusing Greece even more than the creditors. Nationalism raising in all countries, and all this leaded by the blind gluttony of Germany, that wants achieve for the third time in history their failure leading Europe. And the "best" is yet to come when the Euro irreversibility myth will vanish. Waiting for a miracle.


I'm pretty sure this is a world problem, not inclusive to the EU. The 2007 crisis dealt a huge blow to the EU, and it takes time to recover. We are on our way back on track and I think this is great.

Of course living in unity is hard. I've been living in Luxembourg for more than 13y, and I must garantee you that we made a shitton of sacrifice concerning fiscalities. We lost the bank secrecy, our average salaries are on the way down and the VAT is rising because of the EU regulation. Of course there is still some taxe evasion and shit like that, but Rome wasn't made in a day too.

Nationalism rising isn't due to the EU tho. It's a side effect of the crisis, and like in every crisis ever, the nationalism will rise, and the populist leading them are against the EU. But there is no correlation that the EU is responsible for the rise of nationalists mouvements.

Each country has its flaws, and I think this is awesome that we try to go past that to get a better future.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-02 11:25:26
July 02 2015 11:21 GMT
#2865
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.

That's actually not a good argument at all, most small countries with their own currency are doing better than the eurozone right now (and even big countries).

Nationalism rising isn't due to the EU tho. It's a side effect of the crisis, and like in every crisis ever, the nationalism will rise, and the populist leading them are against the EU. But there is no correlation that the EU is responsible for the rise of nationalists mouvements.

We would completly disagree here, soveraignty is really important because people feel responsible for their situation. When everything comes from the top (or at least people it is this way), it's obvious the base is going to find something that bind them (the nation) and oppose itself to the top (the european union) as most of the european election have proved (you think it's a non information that France send that much antieuropean to represent them as european deputee while they do not vote that much for the FN in other national elections ?).

On July 02 2015 10:18 tshi wrote:
does this count? http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/world/europe/belgium-commemorates-waterloo-with-euro-and-france-is-not-pleased.html

Belgium trolls France by minting a $2.50 coin when france got mad and blocked them for doing a $2.00 coin.

That's quite a retarded action tho. What if french minted a coin that represented a battle won by the french on belgium ? This would sure create some funny results.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Faust852
Profile Joined February 2012
Luxembourg4004 Posts
July 02 2015 11:31 GMT
#2866
On July 02 2015 20:21 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.

That's actually not a good argument at all, most small countries with their own currency are doing better than the eurozone right now (and even big countries).

Show nested quote +
Nationalism rising isn't due to the EU tho. It's a side effect of the crisis, and like in every crisis ever, the nationalism will rise, and the populist leading them are against the EU. But there is no correlation that the EU is responsible for the rise of nationalists mouvements.

We would completly disagree here, soveraignty is really important because people feel responsible for their situation. When everything comes from the top (or at least people it is this way), it's obvious the base is going to find something that bind them (the nation) and oppose itself to the top (the european union) as most of the european election have proved (you think it's a non information that France send that much antieuropean to represent them as european deputee while they do not vote that much for the FN in other national elections ?).

Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 10:18 tshi wrote:
does this count? http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/world/europe/belgium-commemorates-waterloo-with-euro-and-france-is-not-pleased.html

Belgium trolls France by minting a $2.50 coin when france got mad and blocked them for doing a $2.00 coin.

That's quite a retarded action tho. What if french minted a coin that represented a battle won by the french on belgium ? This would sure create some funny results.


I'd like to know what "small" countries are doing better than the Europe ones, if you exclude South Korea and Singapour.

About the European representation of the FN in France, you know your argument is flawed when only 20% of people have voted in the european election and the one elected never present themself in Brussels.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
July 02 2015 11:39 GMT
#2867
On July 02 2015 20:31 Faust852 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 20:21 WhiteDog wrote:
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.

That's actually not a good argument at all, most small countries with their own currency are doing better than the eurozone right now (and even big countries).

Nationalism rising isn't due to the EU tho. It's a side effect of the crisis, and like in every crisis ever, the nationalism will rise, and the populist leading them are against the EU. But there is no correlation that the EU is responsible for the rise of nationalists mouvements.

We would completly disagree here, soveraignty is really important because people feel responsible for their situation. When everything comes from the top (or at least people it is this way), it's obvious the base is going to find something that bind them (the nation) and oppose itself to the top (the european union) as most of the european election have proved (you think it's a non information that France send that much antieuropean to represent them as european deputee while they do not vote that much for the FN in other national elections ?).

On July 02 2015 10:18 tshi wrote:
does this count? http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/world/europe/belgium-commemorates-waterloo-with-euro-and-france-is-not-pleased.html

Belgium trolls France by minting a $2.50 coin when france got mad and blocked them for doing a $2.00 coin.

That's quite a retarded action tho. What if french minted a coin that represented a battle won by the french on belgium ? This would sure create some funny results.


I'd like to know what "small" countries are doing better than the Europe ones, if you exclude South Korea and Singapour.

About the European representation of the FN in France, you know your argument is flawed when only 20% of people have voted in the european election and the one elected never present themself in Brussels.

Switzerland ?

20 % people have voted in the european election ? More like 60 %, and the electorate of the FN vote less than the electorate of the UMP and the PS, so if you force everyone to vote, projections view the FN as higher than they were.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Faust852
Profile Joined February 2012
Luxembourg4004 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-02 12:19:43
July 02 2015 12:16 GMT
#2868
On July 02 2015 20:39 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 20:31 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 20:21 WhiteDog wrote:
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.

That's actually not a good argument at all, most small countries with their own currency are doing better than the eurozone right now (and even big countries).

Nationalism rising isn't due to the EU tho. It's a side effect of the crisis, and like in every crisis ever, the nationalism will rise, and the populist leading them are against the EU. But there is no correlation that the EU is responsible for the rise of nationalists mouvements.

We would completly disagree here, soveraignty is really important because people feel responsible for their situation. When everything comes from the top (or at least people it is this way), it's obvious the base is going to find something that bind them (the nation) and oppose itself to the top (the european union) as most of the european election have proved (you think it's a non information that France send that much antieuropean to represent them as european deputee while they do not vote that much for the FN in other national elections ?).

On July 02 2015 10:18 tshi wrote:
does this count? http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/world/europe/belgium-commemorates-waterloo-with-euro-and-france-is-not-pleased.html

Belgium trolls France by minting a $2.50 coin when france got mad and blocked them for doing a $2.00 coin.

That's quite a retarded action tho. What if french minted a coin that represented a battle won by the french on belgium ? This would sure create some funny results.


I'd like to know what "small" countries are doing better than the Europe ones, if you exclude South Korea and Singapour.

About the European representation of the FN in France, you know your argument is flawed when only 20% of people have voted in the european election and the one elected never present themself in Brussels.

Switzerland ?

20 % people have voted in the european election ? More like 60 %, and the electorate of the FN vote less than the electorate of the UMP and the PS, so if you force everyone to vote, projections view the FN as higher than they were.


Sorry I mixed the 20% with the result of the FN, the participation in france was at 42.43%, with 24% for the FN.
But when you look at the recent departemental election in France, you can see that the FN lost in every departement, with the same % of votes : 25,31% BUT there was much more participation from the other parties, and the UMPRight and PSLeft got around 37% each. It's easy to see that the FM is still in minority in France and their results in the European election was only due to the abstention and again, only 50% of participation...

And when you give Switzerland as exemple, you must realize that this is probably the country that benefit the most from the free trade and the EU as a whole, even it is not part of it ? It is exactly because there is the EU that they do so well.
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-02 12:35:56
July 02 2015 12:23 GMT
#2869
Yet another interesting Wikileaks cable, 2011 Merkel thought debt wouldn't be sustainable even after a haircut, Schaeuble was all for a haircut. Merkel proved to be right, of course.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


On July 02 2015 17:11 RvB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 06:56 Taguchi wrote:
On July 02 2015 05:32 Nyxisto wrote:
On July 02 2015 05:23 Taguchi wrote:
Right, Nyxisto. Why then do you think Tula believes his/her country spent all that money on Greece's black hole? Why was there ever a need to frame this argument precisely this way?

And what about the IMF sustainability analysis leaked in the Guardian yesterday, which was sent to the German parliament? It rather clearly pointed out that Greek debt is unsustainable under even the most positive (however unlikely) scenario. Why does Merkel (safe to assume that SPD is also of this opinion?) insist that 'the Greek debt is sustainable'?


Is this the same analysis mentioned here?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/it-s-not-all-greek-to-voters-as-key-debt-document-mistranslated

Apparently that analysis was (deliberately?) mistranslated.


Um, no I don't think so. It is unpublished (afaik), reported by the Guardian yesterday, linked to a couple times in this thread, supposedly sent to German MPs. I generally go for the source material and avoid translations, I haven't read the document obviously, nor the one you refer to.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/30/greek-debt-troika-analysis-says-significant-concessions-still-needed

Then there is this helpful FAQ by the IMF itself: http://www.imf.org/external/country/grc/greecefaq.htm#one

Pretty clear call for debt relief if you ask me. It is in fact spelled out in the IMF FAQ.

Yes it is that one Nyxisto.

The GUardian article quotes the same sustainability analysis as Reuters which I already linked at page 140.

Both articles use this quote:
Show nested quote +
"It is clear that the policy slippages and uncertainties of the last months have made the achievement of the 2012 targets impossible under any scenario,"


The Guardian only quotes the debt to GDP ratio which will remain above the level which the IMF regards as sustainable but they leave out something pretty important which is in the same analysis.

Show nested quote +
The analysis stresses however, that focusing on the debt-to-GDP ratio does not give an accurate picture of debt sustainability and that this is better reflected by gross financing needs of a country.

Measured like this, Greece has no sustainability problem in any scenario, but would require help to improve the sustainability, via for example an extension of maturities, under the third, least favourable option.

"This gross financing need metric points to no sustainability issues under the first two scenarios," the document said.

"The gross financing needs remain well below 15 percent threshold, a threshold mentioned in IMF guidance for this criterion. Under this scenario, significant reprofiling of the stock of debt and concessional lending terms would improve sustainability," it said.

"Reprofiling of payment flows does not imply nominal haircut or budgetary costs for creditors. This would also entail further NPV gains for Greece, and strengthen the sustainability of the Greek public debt in the long-run."


reuters source



I think IMF will publish the whole thing today so we won't have to speculate anymore. And I hope they actually get their analysis right this time. This is still a reality, after all:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


I'll also add this little bit of information for those of you who've been wondering about the media landscape in Greece. Time on TV for pro-NO and pro-YES rallies, pro-NO rally was 29/06, pro-YES 30/06. ERT is the national broadcaster, other TV stations are private.
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
InVerno
Profile Joined May 2011
258 Posts
July 02 2015 12:24 GMT
#2870
On July 02 2015 19:58 Faust852 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 19:45 InVerno wrote:
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.


In this day and age, looks impossible to be honest. Northern countries with their racism of "hardworking guys" vs "everyday fiesta guys". Southern countries accusing northern ones to be inhuman blackmailers. No will whatsoever for a fiscal unity, at the point the country you're writing from is basically a fiscal paradise in the middle of the Europe. There's no collaboration even between PIGS as we see in the Greek debate, where the countries that have "reformed" their regulations are accusing Greece even more than the creditors. Nationalism raising in all countries, and all this leaded by the blind gluttony of Germany, that wants achieve for the third time in history their failure leading Europe. And the "best" is yet to come when the Euro irreversibility myth will vanish. Waiting for a miracle.


I'm pretty sure this is a world problem, not inclusive to the EU. The 2007 crisis dealt a huge blow to the EU, and it takes time to recover. We are on our way back on track and I think this is great.

Of course living in unity is hard. I've been living in Luxembourg for more than 13y, and I must garantee you that we made a shitton of sacrifice concerning fiscalities. We lost the bank secrecy, our average salaries are on the way down and the VAT is rising because of the EU regulation. Of course there is still some taxe evasion and shit like that, but Rome wasn't made in a day too.

Nationalism rising isn't due to the EU tho. It's a side effect of the crisis, and like in every crisis ever, the nationalism will rise, and the populist leading them are against the EU. But there is no correlation that the EU is responsible for the rise of nationalists mouvements.

Each country has its flaws, and I think this is awesome that we try to go past that to get a better future.


What you see are steps forwards, but you would be very impressed to read Gramsci's books from the prison, describing exactly the same political situation\problems as today, in the late '800. Same form of "hard working guys" racism from northern countries, same project to make southern industries poorer in order to acquire them, same fear of the southern leaders to govern their people by democracy, same obsession of these leader to find a bond with northern countries to have a chance to rule these countries otherwise judged as "impossible to govern" (which is called auto-racism). For every percentage of VAT rebalanced between countries that you can see as step forward, there's still a political\cultural situation that incredibly has not change by a step if you don't take in account the years in shock after WWII. I hardly believe even Grexit would be a big enough political shock to finally make these nations united. Everyone is still trying to save his damn ass and nothing more.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-02 12:57:35
July 02 2015 12:54 GMT
#2871
On July 02 2015 21:16 Faust852 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 20:39 WhiteDog wrote:
On July 02 2015 20:31 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 20:21 WhiteDog wrote:
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.

That's actually not a good argument at all, most small countries with their own currency are doing better than the eurozone right now (and even big countries).

Nationalism rising isn't due to the EU tho. It's a side effect of the crisis, and like in every crisis ever, the nationalism will rise, and the populist leading them are against the EU. But there is no correlation that the EU is responsible for the rise of nationalists mouvements.

We would completly disagree here, soveraignty is really important because people feel responsible for their situation. When everything comes from the top (or at least people it is this way), it's obvious the base is going to find something that bind them (the nation) and oppose itself to the top (the european union) as most of the european election have proved (you think it's a non information that France send that much antieuropean to represent them as european deputee while they do not vote that much for the FN in other national elections ?).

On July 02 2015 10:18 tshi wrote:
does this count? http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/world/europe/belgium-commemorates-waterloo-with-euro-and-france-is-not-pleased.html

Belgium trolls France by minting a $2.50 coin when france got mad and blocked them for doing a $2.00 coin.

That's quite a retarded action tho. What if french minted a coin that represented a battle won by the french on belgium ? This would sure create some funny results.


I'd like to know what "small" countries are doing better than the Europe ones, if you exclude South Korea and Singapour.

About the European representation of the FN in France, you know your argument is flawed when only 20% of people have voted in the european election and the one elected never present themself in Brussels.

Switzerland ?

20 % people have voted in the european election ? More like 60 %, and the electorate of the FN vote less than the electorate of the UMP and the PS, so if you force everyone to vote, projections view the FN as higher than they were.


Sorry I mixed the 20% with the result of the FN, the participation in france was at 42.43%, with 24% for the FN.
But when you look at the recent departemental election in France, you can see that the FN lost in every departement, with the same % of votes : 25,31% BUT there was much more participation from the other parties, and the UMPRight and PSLeft got around 37% each. It's easy to see that the FM is still in minority in France and their results in the European election was only due to the abstention and again, only 50% of participation...

And when you give Switzerland as exemple, you must realize that this is probably the country that benefit the most from the free trade and the EU as a whole, even it is not part of it ? It is exactly because there is the EU that they do so well.

You are right in everything you say but nothing contredict my points.
1) yes the FN has poor result in national election, but great result in european election, which was my point - europe favor nationalism ;
2) yes, the free trade (and mostly the freedom of capitals, since switzerland is a tax heaven) benefit Switzerland, but it does not have the euro (we were not talking about the EU but the euro I believe ?).

On July 02 2015 21:24 InVerno wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 19:58 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 19:45 InVerno wrote:
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.


In this day and age, looks impossible to be honest. Northern countries with their racism of "hardworking guys" vs "everyday fiesta guys". Southern countries accusing northern ones to be inhuman blackmailers. No will whatsoever for a fiscal unity, at the point the country you're writing from is basically a fiscal paradise in the middle of the Europe. There's no collaboration even between PIGS as we see in the Greek debate, where the countries that have "reformed" their regulations are accusing Greece even more than the creditors. Nationalism raising in all countries, and all this leaded by the blind gluttony of Germany, that wants achieve for the third time in history their failure leading Europe. And the "best" is yet to come when the Euro irreversibility myth will vanish. Waiting for a miracle.


I'm pretty sure this is a world problem, not inclusive to the EU. The 2007 crisis dealt a huge blow to the EU, and it takes time to recover. We are on our way back on track and I think this is great.

Of course living in unity is hard. I've been living in Luxembourg for more than 13y, and I must garantee you that we made a shitton of sacrifice concerning fiscalities. We lost the bank secrecy, our average salaries are on the way down and the VAT is rising because of the EU regulation. Of course there is still some taxe evasion and shit like that, but Rome wasn't made in a day too.

Nationalism rising isn't due to the EU tho. It's a side effect of the crisis, and like in every crisis ever, the nationalism will rise, and the populist leading them are against the EU. But there is no correlation that the EU is responsible for the rise of nationalists mouvements.

Each country has its flaws, and I think this is awesome that we try to go past that to get a better future.


What you see are steps forwards, but you would be very impressed to read Gramsci's books from the prison, describing exactly the same political situation\problems as today, in the late '800. Same form of "hard working guys" racism from northern countries, same project to make southern industries poorer in order to acquire them, same fear of the southern leaders to govern their people by democracy, same obsession of these leader to find a bond with northern countries to have a chance to rule these countries otherwise judged as "impossible to govern" (which is called auto-racism). For every percentage of VAT rebalanced between countries that you can see as step forward, there's still a political\cultural situation that incredibly has not change by a step if you don't take in account the years in shock after WWII. I hardly believe even Grexit would be a big enough political shock to finally make these nations united. Everyone is still trying to save his damn ass and nothing more.

The euro now play the same role as the gold exchange standard then. I was in shock when, reading Polanyi's book a second time this year, the entire introduction, that described the situation of europe in the late 1800 - early 1900 up to the second world war, seems to be a perfect description of current europe.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
InVerno
Profile Joined May 2011
258 Posts
July 02 2015 13:38 GMT
#2872
On July 02 2015 21:54 WhiteDog wrote:
The euro now play the same role as the gold exchange standard then. I was in shock when, reading Polanyi's book a second time this year, the entire introduction, that described the situation of europe in the late 1800 - early 1900 up to the second world war, seems to be a perfect description of current europe.


Let's say we're lucky, generations before us studied nazi-fascism and never understood how could have been possible that human disaster to happen, we instead are in the perfect spot to understand that human enviroment, and to understand madness had nothing to do with it.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18430 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-02 14:36:45
July 02 2015 14:35 GMT
#2873
On July 02 2015 20:21 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.

That's actually not a good argument at all, most small countries with their own currency are doing better than the eurozone right now (and even big countries).

Show nested quote +
Nationalism rising isn't due to the EU tho. It's a side effect of the crisis, and like in every crisis ever, the nationalism will rise, and the populist leading them are against the EU. But there is no correlation that the EU is responsible for the rise of nationalists mouvements.

We would completly disagree here, soveraignty is really important because people feel responsible for their situation. When everything comes from the top (or at least people it is this way), it's obvious the base is going to find something that bind them (the nation) and oppose itself to the top (the european union) as most of the european election have proved (you think it's a non information that France send that much antieuropean to represent them as european deputee while they do not vote that much for the FN in other national elections ?).

Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 10:18 tshi wrote:
does this count? http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/world/europe/belgium-commemorates-waterloo-with-euro-and-france-is-not-pleased.html

Belgium trolls France by minting a $2.50 coin when france got mad and blocked them for doing a $2.00 coin.

That's quite a retarded action tho. What if french minted a coin that represented a battle won by the french on belgium ? This would sure create some funny results.


Really? Commemorating the 200y anniversary of one of the largest and most famous battles of Europe is in poor taste? So I guess the Germans should get their panties in a bundle when EVERY YEAR we commemorate D-Day? And the Russians had their great V-Day celebration just a few weeks ago, and there were Stalingrad commemorations?

Or is it okay to celebrate a victory that you, as a country, feel national pride aobut, without your neighbours getting sand in their vajayjay?

In fact, maybe the Spanish should lodge a formal complaint (maybe together with the French) to rename Trafalgar Square to something less offensive (and the French can claim the same about Waterloo Station).
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-02 14:51:34
July 02 2015 14:38 GMT
#2874
On July 02 2015 23:35 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 02 2015 20:21 WhiteDog wrote:
On July 02 2015 15:55 Faust852 wrote:
On July 02 2015 13:14 ImFromPortugal wrote:
we should all exit the eurozone and bring back our old currencies.

In this day and age, I'm pretty certain that the only thing that allow the EU to be competitive on the international market is the Euro. The return of the old currencies would wrecked the interest rate, and buying stuff would become ridiculous too.
That and the conformity required for products is good for the consumer.
Anyway, if we don't continue as a entity, we will get anihilated on the grand scheme of things.

That's actually not a good argument at all, most small countries with their own currency are doing better than the eurozone right now (and even big countries).

Nationalism rising isn't due to the EU tho. It's a side effect of the crisis, and like in every crisis ever, the nationalism will rise, and the populist leading them are against the EU. But there is no correlation that the EU is responsible for the rise of nationalists mouvements.

We would completly disagree here, soveraignty is really important because people feel responsible for their situation. When everything comes from the top (or at least people it is this way), it's obvious the base is going to find something that bind them (the nation) and oppose itself to the top (the european union) as most of the european election have proved (you think it's a non information that France send that much antieuropean to represent them as european deputee while they do not vote that much for the FN in other national elections ?).

On July 02 2015 10:18 tshi wrote:
does this count? http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/world/europe/belgium-commemorates-waterloo-with-euro-and-france-is-not-pleased.html

Belgium trolls France by minting a $2.50 coin when france got mad and blocked them for doing a $2.00 coin.

That's quite a retarded action tho. What if french minted a coin that represented a battle won by the french on belgium ? This would sure create some funny results.


Really? Commemorating the 200y anniversary of one of the largest and most famous battles of Europe is in poor taste? So I guess the Germans should get their panties in a bundle when EVERY YEAR we commemorate D-Day? And the Russians had their great V-Day celebration just a few weeks ago, and there were Stalingrad commemorations?

Or is it okay to celebrate a victory that you, as a country, feel national pride aobut, without your neighbours getting sand in their vajayjay?

In fact, maybe the Spanish should lodge a formal complaint (maybe together with the French) to rename Trafalgar Square to something less offensive (and the French can claim the same about Waterloo Station).

You can commemorate all you want, this is not what is being talked here ? It's about using the euro to do so, while it's supposed to be something that bind us. What if our french euro had Napoléon on it ? Would the rest of europe like it ?
You never actually thought about it maybe, but if you look closely at euros, from all nations, the image have been carefully picked in order to create no animosity and to represent what would be, maybe, a common culture (hence why there are so much architecture and such, and almost no historical characters).
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Faust852
Profile Joined February 2012
Luxembourg4004 Posts
July 02 2015 15:03 GMT
#2875
I don't get why people are being piss about a battle lest 200y ago. French people shouldn't feel ashamed of losing something like that. It's not you, it's not your fathers nor your grand fathers. Noone from that time is alive anymore so why so much angst ? German people shouldn't feel ashamed of WW2, it's not their fault some of their ancesters did shitty things.
Waterloo is one of the event that shaped Europe as it is now, and it is history.
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-02 15:18:27
July 02 2015 15:13 GMT
#2876
BREAKING: IMF: Greece needs debt relief and 50 billion euros in new financing from October through 2018. AP

Waiting on full report, I'll link it here whenever it's published. edit: http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/files/2015/07/Greece-DSA.pdf

Recall that the financing proposal from troika was 15bn, which would've taken us up to ~November, and no debt relief at all (well, it actually was 'maybe we'll talk about debt relief in the future' and then Mutti said the debt is sustainable).
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
CuddlyCuteKitten
Profile Joined January 2004
Sweden2877 Posts
July 02 2015 15:16 GMT
#2877
Are we not past the point where we need that? I dont really know which historical figure is supposed to piss me off but its probably some king that I dont care about. Is Napoleon really such a sensitive figure? He conquerd most of europe but I have never really meet anyone who disliked him. And most French people should understand that other countries are glad he was stopped even if there is pride (is there?) around him. We dont get butthurt because Norway celebrate their independence like crazy every year. Like their celebrations in Sweden sometimes rival our celebrations of our national holiday, its kind of weird but also pretty cute.
Unity, support, family, and kneecapping bitches.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22554 Posts
July 02 2015 15:16 GMT
#2878
Kinda hoping for a No from Greece and an exit so the Eurozone can focus on solvable problems instead.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
July 02 2015 15:22 GMT
#2879
On July 03 2015 00:16 Gorsameth wrote:
Kinda hoping for a No from Greece and an exit so the Eurozone can focus on solvable problems instead.


You want the problem to disappear from your life, basically. That would cost more, since even more debt would have to be written off in that case (since Greece's economy would be in complete freefall while returning to the drachma).

Not to mention migration, geopolitics, what have you. I doubt this scenario, way too stupid even for this crop of politicians. They'll have Tsipras's head on a pike, then pay up. Wait for it.
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18430 Posts
July 02 2015 15:28 GMT
#2880
On July 03 2015 00:16 Gorsameth wrote:
Kinda hoping for a No from Greece and an exit so the Eurozone can focus on solvable problems instead.

Where solvable is: how to deal with the instability resulting from Greece defaulting on their debts? Just some ideas:
- Russia offering to buy them up in return for "concessions" (like naval bases in Athens, Crete and elsewhere on the mediterranean);
- Spain and Italy being cast back into a recession due to lack of trust in the Euro as a stable union, rising interest rates for the PIGS (guess it'll just be PIS then...)

Yup, sounds far easier to deal with than having Greece comply with reforms, pump some extra few billion Euros in there and restructure their debt so that they can actually pay it back.
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