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On July 22 2014 22:30 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2014 22:07 PaleMan wrote:interesting article by Robert Parry What I’ve been told by one source, who has provided accurate information on similar matters in the past, is that U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms. link Well apart from the obvious bias of the article (still talks about a neo-Nazi coup d'etat in Kyev), people tend to vastly overestimate what spy satellites can see. They can't, in fact, reliably track vehicles over large distances. They can surely identify a SA-11 missile system in transit or setup. However a spy satellite can only take pictures only so ofter per day (on every orbit around the globe) that's why they can't say anything more than "we believe" when a truck convoy is spotted in Ukraine that looks similar to one that was spotted hours before before in Russia.
The US have satellites in geosynchronous orbit over ukraine (and any conflict zone in general) and has an additional system covering nearly the entire globe detecting missile launches/radar events from what I understand. I'd be genuinely surprised if the exact launch location hadn't been pinned down yet by their intelligence services. Even tracking the thing isn't out of the realm of possibility.
The problem is that you don't share your data because it gives away your capabilities.
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Zurich15358 Posts
On July 22 2014 22:39 Derez wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2014 22:30 zatic wrote:On July 22 2014 22:07 PaleMan wrote:interesting article by Robert Parry What I’ve been told by one source, who has provided accurate information on similar matters in the past, is that U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms. link Well apart from the obvious bias of the article (still talks about a neo-Nazi coup d'etat in Kyev), people tend to vastly overestimate what spy satellites can see. They can't, in fact, reliably track vehicles over large distances. They can surely identify a SA-11 missile system in transit or setup. However a spy satellite can only take pictures only so ofter per day (on every orbit around the globe) that's why they can't say anything more than "we believe" when a truck convoy is spotted in Ukraine that looks similar to one that was spotted hours before before in Russia. The US have satellites in geosynchronous orbit over ukraine (and any conflict zone in general) and has an additional system covering nearly the entire globe detecting missile launches/radar events from what I understand. I'd be genuinely surprised if the exact launch location hadn't been pinned down yet by their intelligence services. Even tracking the thing isn't out of the realm of possibility. The problem is that you don't share your data because it gives away your capabilities.
Detecting missile launches is something else entirely from tracking vehicles on the ground. They have had those since the cold war, when satellite surveillance pictures still looked like this:
http://images.nationalgeographic.com/wpf/media-content/photos/000/790/cache/79094_990x742-cb1398437599.jpg
Geosynchronous satellites have a resolution of several meters. Never enough to identify anything on the ground. They are also not positioned "over Ukraine", or over anything but the equator. Well I guess you could put them into any orbit, but then that wouldn't make any sense since they wouldn't be geostationary anymore.
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On July 22 2014 22:39 Derez wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2014 22:30 zatic wrote:On July 22 2014 22:07 PaleMan wrote:interesting article by Robert Parry What I’ve been told by one source, who has provided accurate information on similar matters in the past, is that U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms. link Well apart from the obvious bias of the article (still talks about a neo-Nazi coup d'etat in Kyev), people tend to vastly overestimate what spy satellites can see. They can't, in fact, reliably track vehicles over large distances. They can surely identify a SA-11 missile system in transit or setup. However a spy satellite can only take pictures only so ofter per day (on every orbit around the globe) that's why they can't say anything more than "we believe" when a truck convoy is spotted in Ukraine that looks similar to one that was spotted hours before before in Russia. The US have satellites in geosynchronous orbit over ukraine (and any conflict zone in general) and has an additional system covering nearly the entire globe detecting missile launches/radar events from what I understand. I'd be genuinely surprised if the exact launch location hadn't been pinned down yet by their intelligence services. Even tracking the thing isn't out of the realm of possibility. The problem is that you don't share your data because it gives away your capabilities.
Had to be corrected on that as well. A geostational (or geosynchronous, tomato tomato) satellite is roughly 22000 miles above sea level. The satellite taking the pictures of the crashsite was in an orbit (i assume it's LEO) between 100-1200 miles. And that already isn't really high-definition anymore.
Honestly. I do agree that proper secret service satellites are more capable than their civilian counterparts, but at 22000 miles, no.
Edit: even at LEO btw, there's no way they could tell the difference between a rebel and a ukrainian uniform. It's just bullshitting.
edit2: wow, just read the article, it has literally nothing of value. Nothing. This isn't even yellowpress, that might be the dumbest try to sensationalism that i've ever seen.
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On July 22 2014 22:07 PaleMan wrote:interesting article by Robert Parry Show nested quote +What I’ve been told by one source, who has provided accurate information on similar matters in the past, is that U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms. link
Wait, what happened to the su25?
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On July 22 2014 07:58 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2014 03:05 Nyxisto wrote:
You have to keep in mind though that the service ceiling is the height at which an aircraft can climb 100 feet/minute(or 500 feet/min for jets) and is fully operational. This is not to be confused with the Maximum Operating Altitude which basically means "it flies as high as it physically can". Some planes can double their service ceiling, for example most commercial airplanes can go up to 40k feet, while the service ceiling is something like 30k. Not to mention, you have to add the range of the missile as well. Apparently the SU25 can carry either R-60 or K-13 missiles, with a range of roughly 22500 feet (8km) and 72000 feet (22km). So a jet at 22000 feet still can reach a plane at 40000 feet with it's missiles, operational/service ceiling doesn't matter in this case, doesn't tell anything. But it's moot anyway, the investigations should tell pretty easy if it was hit by a AA missile or a BUK System. Even with those potatorrists running around like retards on the wreckage (quite a difference between a 7kg warhead and a 70kg warhead). While it may never come out who actually fired whatever was fired, i'm pretty convinced that at least the type of missile will be found out.
That range applies to air-ground targets? I imagine there would be quite a difference in range between shooting immobile targets below, and aircrafts moving at much higher altitudes. SU-25 is not supposed to work as an interceptor.
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On July 22 2014 23:09 Cheerio wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2014 07:58 m4ini wrote:On July 22 2014 03:05 Nyxisto wrote:
You have to keep in mind though that the service ceiling is the height at which an aircraft can climb 100 feet/minute(or 500 feet/min for jets) and is fully operational. This is not to be confused with the Maximum Operating Altitude which basically means "it flies as high as it physically can". Some planes can double their service ceiling, for example most commercial airplanes can go up to 40k feet, while the service ceiling is something like 30k. Not to mention, you have to add the range of the missile as well. Apparently the SU25 can carry either R-60 or K-13 missiles, with a range of roughly 22500 feet (8km) and 72000 feet (22km). So a jet at 22000 feet still can reach a plane at 40000 feet with it's missiles, operational/service ceiling doesn't matter in this case, doesn't tell anything. But it's moot anyway, the investigations should tell pretty easy if it was hit by a AA missile or a BUK System. Even with those potatorrists running around like retards on the wreckage (quite a difference between a 7kg warhead and a 70kg warhead). While it may never come out who actually fired whatever was fired, i'm pretty convinced that at least the type of missile will be found out. That range applies to air-ground targets? I imagine there would be quite a difference in range between shooting immobile targets below, and aircrafts moving at much higher altitudes. SU-25 is not supposed to work as an interceptor.
Depends on many things, the range can be higher even, or alot lower. It's easy to do the math (for somebody who knows how to math, not me though). At 16000 feet, with a range of 72000 feet, it's safe to say that you could shoot a plane on a range of 50000 feet (direction doesn't matter) from behind. The ranges i stated are purely for the AA-weapons mounted on the SU-25, R-60s and K-13s. They can't be used against ground targets.
I agree though, the SU-25 is not an interceptor, nowhere near that. Hence my posting after the one you quoted.
Still, with K-13s, depending on how far it was behind MH17, it could've reached it even with a height-difference of 10000 feet.
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On July 22 2014 23:09 Cheerio wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2014 07:58 m4ini wrote:On July 22 2014 03:05 Nyxisto wrote:
You have to keep in mind though that the service ceiling is the height at which an aircraft can climb 100 feet/minute(or 500 feet/min for jets) and is fully operational. This is not to be confused with the Maximum Operating Altitude which basically means "it flies as high as it physically can". Some planes can double their service ceiling, for example most commercial airplanes can go up to 40k feet, while the service ceiling is something like 30k. Not to mention, you have to add the range of the missile as well. Apparently the SU25 can carry either R-60 or K-13 missiles, with a range of roughly 22500 feet (8km) and 72000 feet (22km). So a jet at 22000 feet still can reach a plane at 40000 feet with it's missiles, operational/service ceiling doesn't matter in this case, doesn't tell anything. But it's moot anyway, the investigations should tell pretty easy if it was hit by a AA missile or a BUK System. Even with those potatorrists running around like retards on the wreckage (quite a difference between a 7kg warhead and a 70kg warhead). While it may never come out who actually fired whatever was fired, i'm pretty convinced that at least the type of missile will be found out. That range applies to air-ground targets? I imagine there would be quite a difference in range between shooting immobile targets below, and aircrafts moving at much higher altitudes. SU-25 is not supposed to work as an interceptor.
Su-25 can carry A2A missiles as well as ATGMs, according to good old wikipedia the A2A missiles it carries are equivalent to US Aim 9 sidewinders with a range of 35km. No it's not an interceptor, it's ground support but still has some multirole capacity.
Edit: And this isn't Cold War bomber interdiction, you wouldn't particularly need a supersonic interceptor to take down a passenger plane
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While the intermediary source is problematic, the more specific source (the generals) could be relevant and answering a few of the questions they pose could help explain more specifically what happened and didn't happen.
1 Why did the MH17 plane leave the international corridor? (relevant in any case for the investigation)
3. Why was a large group of air defense systems deployed to the militia-held area if the self-defense forces have no planes? (limited relevance unless MH17 was hit from the ground and it is assumed that Ukrainean government was responsible)
7. Why was the military jet flying at so close to a passenger plane? (Could be relevant to answer some iteration of this question for the investigation to remove doubt about what happened before the crash)
source
The rest seems like leading and mostly irrelevant baiting to get US intelligence or imply either a SU-25 shot it down or ukrainian military did it/make western claims look ridiculous.
Edit: As for source it was the easiest accessible. It holds several pictures that is supposed to be russian intelligence data and some further comments surrounding the questions. Since it may be a significant base for Russias diplomatic opinion on the subject it is relevant to at least take it into account.
A western source citing the questions can be found here
User was warned for this post
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Edit: And this isn't Cold War bomber interdiction, you wouldn't particularly need a supersonic interceptor to take down a passenger plane
Fun thing though, the SU-25 at max speed is only marginally faster than a 777 at cruise speed (i think it's roughly 70km/h faster).
I honestly don't believe that it was a SU-25 responsible. Not saying it wasn't possible, it quite is, but it just doesn't make sense at all.
Edit: stop reading RT.com (or sourcing it). That'll answer alot of your questions. Starting by the dumb question "why did they leave the international flight corridor". They didn't. In fact, the same week, 56 lufthansa flights used the same route. Even funnier, 107 aeroflot planes too (russian). And guess what, the same day, 2 other planes (air india and another one, i wrote it down earlier in this thread). One of them only 2 minutes behind MH17. So the russians deemed it safe, and now they're asking that question.
If you know why they ask a dumb question like this (based on a petty lie), then you know why you immediately should stop reading russian media. Another reason would be that you are not allowed to quote RT here anyway. Not that anyone would miss out on something.
edit2: the other questions can be answered easily too btw, just start catching up on what happened in the ukraine starting from EuroMaidan.
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On July 22 2014 23:27 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +Edit: And this isn't Cold War bomber interdiction, you wouldn't particularly need a supersonic interceptor to take down a passenger plane Fun thing though, the SU-25 at max speed is only marginally faster than a 777 at cruise speed (i think it's roughly 70km/h faster). I honestly don't believe that it was a SU-25 responsible. Not saying it wasn't possible, it quite is, but it just doesn't make sense at all.
No it doesn't make any sense at all!
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On July 21 2014 09:27 Evil_Monkey_ wrote:
Don't think anyone has mentioned that this provides a perfect distraction for what Israel is doing in Gaza. Israel started their ground offensive on the same day as this after having said they wanted a cease fire, in addition they are a strong American ally. Furthermore, the occurence in Ukraine puts pressure on Europe to reduce their reliance on Russia & trade with Russia & to take action against them, so it's win-win for America&Israel. At the same time it's a lose-lose situation for Russia & Europe. I don't view it as entirely lose-lose for Europe, getting away from Putin would be great but unfortunately would push us closer to Obama. I know many people like to point out what an evil bastard Putin is, but let's not forget that Obama who uses robots to kill innocent people he has no evidence against regularly and what we've heard about the NSA and his blind eye foreign policy. It just seems the world is lead by truly & utterly creepy bastards: Obama, Putin, Netanyahu, Hamas, Xi Jin Ping etc. etc., if someone could just put these people on plane. I would gladly donate to get rid of them.
On another note, a funny fact is that both the conflict with Israel-Palestine & Russia-Ukraine were started off by Malaysian Airline plan disasters.
Anyway, all this could just be down to shit happens and even if some of this stuff is part of a huge conspiracy, people knowing won't change much.
A bit late of a response, but I think this deserves one.
It's probably not a coincidence that they started at the same time, but it's not a conspiracy either. Israel was clearly planning on invading Gaza, but they waited until there was something to draw attention away from the invasion. It's a somewhat common strategy for internationally unpopular military action.
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On July 22 2014 23:41 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On July 21 2014 09:27 Evil_Monkey_ wrote:
Don't think anyone has mentioned that this provides a perfect distraction for what Israel is doing in Gaza. Israel started their ground offensive on the same day as this after having said they wanted a cease fire, in addition they are a strong American ally. Furthermore, the occurence in Ukraine puts pressure on Europe to reduce their reliance on Russia & trade with Russia & to take action against them, so it's win-win for America&Israel. At the same time it's a lose-lose situation for Russia & Europe. I don't view it as entirely lose-lose for Europe, getting away from Putin would be great but unfortunately would push us closer to Obama. I know many people like to point out what an evil bastard Putin is, but let's not forget that Obama who uses robots to kill innocent people he has no evidence against regularly and what we've heard about the NSA and his blind eye foreign policy. It just seems the world is lead by truly & utterly creepy bastards: Obama, Putin, Netanyahu, Hamas, Xi Jin Ping etc. etc., if someone could just put these people on plane. I would gladly donate to get rid of them.
On another note, a funny fact is that both the conflict with Israel-Palestine & Russia-Ukraine were started off by Malaysian Airline plan disasters.
Anyway, all this could just be down to shit happens and even if some of this stuff is part of a huge conspiracy, people knowing won't change much. A bit late of a response, but I think this deserves one. It's probably not a coincidence that they started at the same time, but it's not a conspiracy either. Israel was clearly planning on invading Gaza, but they waited until there was something to draw attention away from the invasion. It's a somewhat common strategy for internationally unpopular military action.
Common strategy for politicians to bury bad news as well. Spin!
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Just as a unrelated sidenews though: on Sunday. Malaysian Airlines flight MH4 (Airbus A380) on route from Kuala Lumpur to London was tracked flying above Syria. Apparently they were tracked flying a fraction south of a town called Homs, which was an epicenter of fighting. (from flightradar24)
Apparently, they didn't learn. Not that i would need to fly anytime soon, but you bet i wont fly with Malaysian Airlines.
edit
Hm. Interesting indeed, but personally, i take this with a grain of salt. A big one.
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On July 22 2014 23:44 m4ini wrote:Just as a unrelated sidenews though: on Sunday. Malaysian Airlines flight MH4 (Airbus A380) on route from Kuala Lumpur to London was tracked flying above Syria. Apparently they were tracked flying a fraction south of a town called Homs, which was an epicenter of fighting. Apparently, they didn't learn. Not that i would need to fly anytime soon, but you bet i wont fly with Malaysian Airlines. edit Hm. Interesting indeed, but personally, i take this with a grain of salt. A big one.
Ye, me too. I don't know how reputable CDS is, however from what I know it is not considered a Bild/The Sun-esque tabloid.
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On July 22 2014 23:50 Roman666 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2014 23:44 m4ini wrote:Just as a unrelated sidenews though: on Sunday. Malaysian Airlines flight MH4 (Airbus A380) on route from Kuala Lumpur to London was tracked flying above Syria. Apparently they were tracked flying a fraction south of a town called Homs, which was an epicenter of fighting. Apparently, they didn't learn. Not that i would need to fly anytime soon, but you bet i wont fly with Malaysian Airlines. edit Hm. Interesting indeed, but personally, i take this with a grain of salt. A big one. Ye, me too. I don't know how reputable CDS is, however from what I know it is not considered a Bild/The Sun-esque tabloid.
They're part of the RCS group, which apparently also prints the la gazetta dello sport, one of the biggest sportpapers in italy. Well. We'll see how that unfolds, that big of news, if true, won't stay alone for long.
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On July 22 2014 23:53 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2014 23:50 Roman666 wrote:On July 22 2014 23:44 m4ini wrote:Just as a unrelated sidenews though: on Sunday. Malaysian Airlines flight MH4 (Airbus A380) on route from Kuala Lumpur to London was tracked flying above Syria. Apparently they were tracked flying a fraction south of a town called Homs, which was an epicenter of fighting. Apparently, they didn't learn. Not that i would need to fly anytime soon, but you bet i wont fly with Malaysian Airlines. edit Hm. Interesting indeed, but personally, i take this with a grain of salt. A big one. Ye, me too. I don't know how reputable CDS is, however from what I know it is not considered a Bild/The Sun-esque tabloid. They're part of the RCS group, which apparently also prints the la gazetta dello sport, one of the biggest sportpapers in italy. Well. We'll see how that unfolds, that big of news, if true, won't stay alone for long.
I tracked it through a Polish news website, and found the references to it on two other Polish sites as well, so possibly it is really legit. Well, we will see.
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About the guy earlier quoting RT.com asking why MH17 diverted from their flightpath, here's your answer.
http://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/mh17/#3d3d13f
Tracked flights of MH17, all of them. If you look closely, there was nothing diverted. In fact, ALL of the flights of MH17 (even months ago) where pretty much exactly the same flight path. And this is radartracked, not some guy painting some lines somewhere.
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Its CNN so who really knows what they're basing it on but still. Edit: its from the pentagon apparently.
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On July 23 2014 00:07 m4ini wrote:About the guy earlier quoting RT.com asking why MH17 diverted from their flightpath, here's your answer. http://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/mh17/#3d3d13fTracked flights of MH17, all of them. If you look closely, there was nothing diverted. In fact, ALL of the flights of MH17 (even months ago) where pretty much exactly the same flight path. And this is radartracked, not some guy painting some lines somewhere.
That is not what flight aware would indicate when I visited it. Unfortunately it is paywalled for data more than 14 days ago, but you can clearly see some variations in the routes taken over Ukraine: src
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EPT
