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Malaysian airliner shot down over Eastern Ukraine

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In order to maintain some kind of respectable thread quality and to show some respect for those who lost friends in this tragedy, we're forced to enact a hard line policy for this thread. Any posts holding an opinion on who is responsible or making an accusation that is not held by neutral media will be banned. Policy is in effect from page 27 onwards.

Specifically, citing a Ukrainian or Russian source for your claims is going to get you banned. Opinions/facts/accusations arising from neutral media sources (i.e. media whose country of origin is not Ukraine, Russia or one of its puppet states) will be permitted. This policy extends to all forms of media; if a youtube video or picture has not come through a neutral media source then don't post it or you'll be banned. If you wish to discuss this policy please use this website feedback thread.

Updated policy on aggressive posting and insults.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-28 14:20:51
July 17 2014 15:46 GMT
#1

A Malaysian passenger airliner with 295 people on board crashed in Ukraine near the Russian border, Interfax cited an aviation industry source as saying on Thursday.

It said the Boeing plane was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. Reuters could not immediately confirm the Interfax report.
Source.



From the Interpreter Magazine: Evidence Review, who shot down MH17?

This was originally posted on July 25th at 15:58 GMT and has been updated on July 27th at 1730 GMT.

With all of the developments, debates, new evidence and new disinformation, let’s take a look at what we know and don’t know about the theory that a Buk missile system shot down Malaysian Flight MH17.

What We Know – The Separatists Had The Buk

The main theory is that a Buk missile system shot MH17 out of the sky. The separatist at one point admitted that they had a Buk, though that tweet has since been deleted. We have created a map of the areas around where MH17 crashed, and we see that to the north and to the south there are three towns where the Buk system may have shot down MH17. They are as follows:

Torez- Located near Snezhnoye, a geolocated picture placed the Buk in the town. Since then, journalists have spoken to residents who say that the Buk traveled through Torez.

Another video appears to shows the Buk 24 kilometers away from Torez but moving in that direction.

Snezhnoye - A video showing a Buk has been geolocated to the town. Two AP journalists and a Ukrainian journalist reported seeing a Buk in Snezhnoye on July 17th, the day that MH17 was shot down. This is conclusive evidence that at least one Buk traveled in the Torez/Snezhnoye area on the day that the airliner was shot down. Since then, journalists have spoken to residents who say that the Buk traveled through Snezhnoye .

Chernukhino - This one is less conclusive. The Ukrainian government released an intercepted phone call reportedly between separatist military commander and Igor Bezler (Bes, or “Demon”) and Vasily Geranin, who is described as a colonel in the Russian Federation’s GRU (main military intelligence), in which they talk about shooting down an aircraft in this area. In a second conversation two separatists say that the missile that shot the aircraft out of the sky came from this town.

Bezler admits that the audio tapes are real, but claims they were discussing an earlier incident – the shooting down of a Ukrainian airforce jet. But in his denial Bezler accidentally admits that the separatists are shooting down aircraft from this location, and that they are coordinating with the Russian government. This admission lends credibility to other leaked audio tapes including one in which separatists claim to have shot down MH17 accidentally thinking it was a military transport, and one in which the separatists speak with a contact in Russia and confirm the receipt of the Buk (and Russian crews to go with it).

In a leaked audio tape released on July 25th, Bezler is heard talking about a “birdie” that’s “really high.” The tape was reportedly taken just two minutes before MH17 was shot down. The voice is the same as the previous releases, and as stated before Bezler admits that this is his voice.

There is no visual confirmation that the Buk was ever in Chernukhino, and we don’t know exactly where this checkpoint is located, though it’s theorized that there may have been several of these weapons (perhaps 3) stationed in the general area around the crash site which might explain how a missile in Chernukhino could have shot down MH17 at the same time as a Buk (or two) were spotted elsewhere in the area.

The Best Theory Of Where The Buk Traveled Before And After It Fired

The Associated Press has published an important report of what they believe happened on the day of July 17th. The article is based off of the reports from AP journalists who actually saw the Buk in Snezhonye, the reports of eyewitnesses in that town and others in the area, and information pulled from leaked audio tapes and from intelligence reports released by the Ukrainian government. What is impressive is that so many of the details pulled from so many sources line up perfectly.

Here is the chronology of what happened, combining information from multiple sources (all times local, sources in parenthesis):

- 01:05 – Buk enters Ukraine on flatbed truck. (AP – Ukrainian counterterrorism chief Vitaly Nayda)
- 09:00 – Buk reaches Donetsk, disembarks flatbed truck. (AP – Ukrainian counterterrorism chief Vitaly Nayda)
Approximately – Buk reaches Karapetyan Street in Snezhnoye. (AP – eyewitnesses)
- 13:05 – AP journalists see Buk moving through town in convoy with two civilian cars. This fact was reported by AP before MH17 was shot down. (AP)
- 16:18 – Intercepted audio released by Ukrainian SBU has separatist commander Igor Bezler speaking told by rebel spotter that a “birdie” flying “really high” was moving into range. (The Interpreter)
- 16:20 – Locals in Snezhnoye report one or two loud blasts. One minute to a minute and a second blast is heard. MH17 falls to the sky after this. (AP)
- 16:33- Intercepted phone call has separatists realizing that they shot down a civilian airliner not a military transport plane (The Interpreter).
- 16:40 – An intercepted phone call has Bezler speaking to Vasily Geranin, who is described as a colonel in the Russian Federation’s GRU, indicating that an aircraft has been shot down. (There is a discrepancy with the time stamp since only one aircraft was shot down in this area, and Bezler says it was “30 minutes ago” but it was really only 20 minutes earlier – The Interpreter).
- 16:50 – The VKontakte community “Strelkov’s Dispatches” posted a report “from the militia” about the downing of “an AN-26″ in the “region of Torez” (The Interpreter).
- 17:14-17:42 – Separatists see that the wreckage of the what they shot down is indeed a civilian aircraft, not a military one. The “Mayor” admits that they have shot down a “a super big civilian craft” amd a separatist reports “fragments right in the yards” and “civilian stuff, medicine, toilet paper, towels.”
- 17:18 Pro-Kremlin newspaper Vzglyad reports separatists taking credit for downing “an AN-26″ (actually MH17) with a Buk; admissions of possession of Buks also covered on July 14 (The Interpreter).
- 02:00-04:00 on July 18th – the Buk launchers reportedly cross the border into Russia (Ukrainian government – see below).

As far as where the missiles went afterwards, one video released by the Ukrainian government claims to show the Buk, missing several missiles, on its way back to Russia (presumably along paths highlighted on our map in black).

On July 18th the Ukrainian security services issued a press release in which a Ukraine SBU (Security Service) officer explains Ukraine’s narrative — that three vehicles carrying Buk missiles came from Russia and returned back to Russia after the incident:

At 2:00, July 18, two movers each with a Buk missile launcher crossed the Russian border in Luhansk region. At 4:00, another three movers: one of them empty, other carrying a launcher with four missiles and the latter allegedly with a control unit, crossed the state border.

[The Ukrainian officer] stressed that Russia attempted to suppress evidence of its involvement in the terrorist act.

The vehicle in question, according to Ukraine, passed through Krasnadon on its way back across the border as is reflected on our map. Claims that this video was taken in Ukrainian occupied territory — in Krasnoarmeysk, have been debunked. Furthermore, The Interpreter contacted the owners of the billboard locations and were provided with a complete list of billboard locations as well as images of many of the sites. After a careful investigation we can definitively conclude that this video was recorded in Lugansk, on a road between the MH17 crash site and the border crossing near Krasnadon. The Buk, which does appear to be missing one or two missiles, is traveling in the opposite direction as previous videos which show armored vehicles which appear to have been supplied by the Russian military to the separatist militia.

Read our investigation here. We have posted even more details here.

One picture has been removed from the initial press release after The Interpreter proved that it was an older photo of a Ukrainian military Buk which was nowhere near the MH17 crash site.

Here is a screenshot from our interactive map which shows the route the vehicle may have traveled from Donetsk, through Torez, and ultimately on to the Russian border after shooting down MH17:

[image loading]

Where Was The Buk Launched From?

One issue is that the launch site for the Buk has not been definitively located. However, as mentioned above, all of the areas where the Buk has been spotted are well within range of MH17. And so we have a circle around the crash site where the weapon may have been shot from.

A controversial picture was shared by the Ukrainian government which allegedly shows a smoke trail from the missile. A theory emerged that the area where the picture was taken had been located. Journalists from multiple news agencies then traveled to the area where the missile launch may have been and found unusual tracks in a field where there were metal artifacts and burn marks which may have been caused by the exhaust of a missile. Satellite images released by Google show that the tracks in the field may not have been there before MH17 was shot down.

As of now, this is the most probable theory for the Buk launch site, but more evidence is needed. Read our investigation here.

Where Did The Buk Come From?

One debate, whoever, is where the actual missile or missiles came from, and where they went. There is evidence that the missiles came directly from Russia, though the separatists have at various points claimed that they captured the weapon from Ukrainian stockpiles.

So far the Ukrainian government says that they have 60 Buk systems and all of them are accounted for.

On June 29th the Russian state-controlled media ran a story that the separatists captured a Buk from the Ukrainian military. We’d expect to see this news break in the Russian language, but the only source at the time we could find in Russian was the Russian network TV Zvezda, the news network for the Russian military. A skeptic might say that if the Russian government wanted to plant a story that the separatists had captured this weapon, then they would have done it through TV Zvezda. The only other source, in Russian, concerning this claims appears to have been posted on the Twitter feed for a fan account for the Crimea’s prosecutor. More analysis here.

As noted above, leaked audio shows the separatists admitting that the Buk came from Russia.

While there is no smoking gun yet that the Buk (or Buks, as there is some evidence that there may have been multiple systems given to the separatists) were supplied by Russia, there is a strong circumstantial evidence that the crews to operate such complicated machinery would have to come from a military. As Ukraine is not reporting the defection of any Buk crews, the prime suspect is Russia.

Conclusion: Strong Evidence Russian-Backed Militants Fired a Buk at MH17

For reasons stated above, the evidence is piling up that the Russian-backed militants fired the Buk at MH17. It seems likely that this was an accident since there is no evidence that the militants knew that this was a civilian airliner they were shooting at, initially they took credit for shooting down a military transport plane, and it’s not clear how shooting down a civilian airliner has helped their cause (the opposite is probably true).

But the evidence also suggests that Russia has becoming incredibly reckless in his support of the separatists. Russia has been supplying anti-aircraft weapons (including the Strela-10, has been supplying more tanks and rocket launchers in recent weeks, and has been caught firing GRAD rockets into Ukraine, a trend which has continued or even sped up since the downing of MH17. Circumstantial evidence strongly suggests that Russia supplied the Buk crews to the separatists, and while there is circumstantial evidence that Russia supplied the actual missiles to Russia, there is no evidence yet that the separatists captured intact Buk missile systems from the Ukrainian government.

Russian-backed militants control the crash site and have reportedly tampered with the evidence, so more definitive answers may never come. But while questions remain, the culprits are clear, and those accused of mass murder control the crime scene.
Source.

+ Show Spoiler [OLD] +


Huib Gorter, a senior vice-president of Malaysia Airlines, released a partial list of the nationalities of the plane’s passengers.

This list is incomplete, accounting for 233 of the 280 passengers the airline said were on-board, because Malaysia Air says it did not know the nationalities of the remaining 47 passengers yet.

154 Dutch
27 Australian
23 Malaysian
11 Indonesian
6 UK
4 German
4 Belgian
3 Philippines
One Canadian
Every member of the 15-person crew was Malaysian, the airline said.
Source.







Eastern Ukraine is currently a conflict zone with active fighting between pro-Russia militias and the Ukrainian military and national guard.

***
Overview as of 18.07


President Obama said Friday that a Malaysia Airlines plane carrying nearly 300 people, including at least one U.S. citizen, was evidently shot down by an antiaircraft missile fired from an area controlled by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

In a White House news conference a day after the Boeing 777 crashed en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, Obama stopped short of saying who fired the missile or directly blaming Russia for the deaths, which he called “an outrage of unspeakable proportions.”

But he said the separatists “have received a steady flow of support from Russia,” including heavy arms, training and antiaircraft weapons. Pointing to rebel claims to have shot down several Ukrainian aircraft in recent weeks, including a Ukrainian fighter jet, Obama said it was “not possible for these separatists to function the way they’re functioning . . . without sophisticated equipment and sophisticated training, and that is coming from Russia.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin “has the most control over that situation, and so far at least, he has not exercised it,” Obama said.

He spoke after U.S. officials disclosed a preliminary intelligence assessment indicating that Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was likely shot down by pro-Russian separatists with an SA-11 missile. The SA-11 is an early version of the Buk antiaircraft system that was previously identified by Ukrainian authorities as the weapon used to bring down the airliner.


As emergency workers continue to search for victims of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 after it was shot down near the Russian border, world leaders are calling for a cease-fire in Ukraine. (AP)
In public statements, senior members of the administration from the president down did not specify the perpetrators of the shootdown, although they made it clear that the rebels are the likeliest suspects.

Because of the “technical complexity” of the Russian-made surface-to-air missile system, “it is impossible to rule out Russian technical assistance” to the separatists in operating it, Samantha Power , the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told the U.N. Security Council earlier Friday.

Separately, military and intelligence officials said Friday that the United States has gathered a significant body of evidence that Ukrainian separatists have been trained on Russian territory in recent weeks to fire antiaircraft missiles.

Obama identified the American victim on the plane as Quinn Lucas Schansman, a dual U.S.-Dutch national who reportedly lived in Amsterdam.

He called for “a credible international investigation” into the tragedy and urged Russia to cooperate with it.

As the shootdown sent the Ukraine war into the realm of international crisis, Obama called it a “global tragedy,” saying that “it is not going to be localized; it is not going to be contained.” He joined calls for an international investigation and said investigators from the FBI and National Transportation Safety Board have already been dispatched.

At an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting Friday morning, Power was much more direct in holding Russia responsible for the shootdown, detailing the volume of weapons and other assistance that Moscow has provided to the separatists.


“Russia can end this war,” she said. “Russia must end this war.”

Among the 298 victims, Power said, were 80 children and three listed on the passenger manifest as infants.

In response, Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin did not directly address charges that Moscow bears responsibility and was complicit in the missile attack. Agreeing that an international investigation is needed, Churkin criticized those who he said are “trying to prejudge the outcome with broad statements and insinuations,” and he accused the Ukrainian government of failing to warn international aviation to avoid the conflict area in eastern Ukraine.

“Why did Ukrainian aviation dispatchers send [the Malaysian plane] to an area of strife, where there were antiaircraft systems in operation?” he asked.

By continuing its military offensive to dislodge the separatists, Ukraine “chose the wrong path, and their Western colleagues supported them,” Churkin said. “I’m talking about the United States; they actually pushed them to escalate,” he said, and now “they are trying to lay the blame on Russia.”

Britain, which lost nine citizens in the crash and called for the emergency Security Council meeting, demanded an independent international investigation. “The immediate priority has to be for investigators to gain access to the crash site,” British Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant said. “There must be no interfering or tampering with the evidence.”

As the council session continued, and before any Russian response, most representatives concentrated on the need for an immediate cease-fire in eastern Ukraine and an independent probe. Many indirectly accused Russia of responsibility for the separatists’ actions, although China cautioned member nations not to “jump to any conclusions . . . or trade accusations.”

Speaking later in the White House briefing room, Obama said it was “too early for us to be able to guess what the intentions were of those who might have launched” the missile. “What we know right now, what we have confidence in saying right now, is that a surface-to-air missile was fired, and this is what brought the jet down. . . . That shot was taken within territory that was controlled by the Russian-backed separatists.”

The identities of “what individuals or groups of personnel ordered” the strike, he said, are “still subject to additional information that we’re going to be gathering.”

But after months of conflict in Ukraine, the shootdown should “snap everyone’s head” to action, he said. “We don’t have time for propaganda; we don’t have time for games.”

“Time and again, Russia has refused to take the concrete steps necessary to de-escalate the situation,” Obama said.

At least in public, the leaders of Germany, France and Britain expressed outrage over the downing of the airliner but were careful not to rush to judgment or publicly accuse Russia. Countries in the region considered more hawkish on Russia, however, were more willing to assign blame.

“We are concerned over press reports that the Ukrainian side has captured phone conversation recordings indicating that pro-Russian separatists might be responsible for shooting the plane down,” the Polish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The leaders of Britain and Germany were more cautious. “We have some information, but we need to find more information,” said British Prime Minister David Cameron. He called for an proper international investigation but added, “until we know more, it’s not really possible to say more.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday pressed Russia to work harder toward a political solution in the Ukrainian conflict. But she also drew a line between the Russians and the separatists.

“We’re assuming that the Russian president of course has an influence on Russian separatists,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin. “But still one has to differentiate between the separatists and the Russian government.” On Wednesday, both the United States and European Union slapped new sanctions on Russia, but the European moves were significantly less stinging. Suggesting Friday that she was in no rush to go further, Merkel called Wednesday’s move “an adequate response to what happened in the past few days.” But she also noted that the E.U. decision had left open the door to “act on a new level” if necessary.

As the day wore on, and particularly after the Security Council meeting, the rhetoric grew somewhat harsher. “Those who are responsible for this would forfeit their right to claim their own concerns in the name of humanity,” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in Mexico City.

European governments have been more reluctant than the Americans to slap tougher sanctions on the Russians largely due to Moscow’s economic clout in the region. Should the pro-Russian separatists — with the direct or indirect aid of Russia — ultimately be proven responsible for the strike, analysts said the calculations in the region might change. Countries including Italy and Spain that have generally opposed strict measures will find it tougher to do so. Larger powers have shown a willingness to press the Russians, while acting at the same time to safeguard certain sectors of their domestic economies — finance in Britain, energy in Germany, military manufacturing in France — where the Russians remain influential. But they may be more willing to go out on a limb if the Russians are linked even indirectly to the shootdown.

“It’s a game-changer because it’s very difficult to see how anyone in Europe can continue as business as usual,” said Jonathan Eyal, director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “This time we have our own European casualties. It’s not a theoretical conflict in which people we do not know are dying.”

Yet other analysts insisted that the desire of the Europeans to sidestep truly forceful sanctions to protect their economies should not be underestimated. Just as vital to their calculations, analysts said, will be a desire not to take steps that could dramatically ratchet up tensions and prompt the Russians to respond by cutting off important energy supplies to the region.

“How Europe reacts, we don’t know. It could go either way,” said Andrew Wilson, senior policy fellow in the London office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Jakov Devcic, deputy bureau chief of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Kiev, a group associated with Merkel’s CDU party, said that in Europe, as in the United States, military intervention remained ruled out. But if the rebels are found to have filed the missile, Germany and the E.U. will consider further sanctions, including import bans on luxury goods and, as a second step, moves targeting Russian financial transactions.

The U.S. intelligence assessment that rebels were responsible for the shootdown came as Ukrainian leaders stepped up their condemnation of Russia over the crash, calling for Moscow to be held accountable for allegedly supplying the missile system that they said was used by the rebels in eastern Ukraine.

“This is a crime against humanity,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said, as he called for swift international justice. “All red lines have been already crossed. . . . We ask our international partners to call an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting and to [do] everything we can to stop this war: a war against Ukraine, a war against Europe, and after these terrorists shot down a Malaysian aircraft, this is a war against the world.”

Yatsenyuk added: “Everyone is to be accountable and responsible. I mean everyone who supports these terrorists, including Russians and the Russian regime.”

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, addressing the nation early Friday, also blamed pro-Russian separatists and those he called their Russian masters for the downing of the Boeing 777 with 298 passengers and crew on board.

The victims included “nearly 100 researchers and advocates” who were en route from Amsterdam via Kuala Lumpur to attend an AIDS conference in Australia, Obama said. “They were taken from us in a senseless act of violence,” he said. AIDS conference organizers have confirmed only seven names and said they think the number of people flying to the conference on the Malaysian flight could be much lower than 100.

“War has gone beyond the territory of Ukraine,” Poroshenko said earlier. “Consequences of this war have already reached the whole world.”

Russia and the separatists both denied any responsibility for the shootdown, pinning the blame instead on the Ukrainian government.

But Poroshenko said recordings of what the Ukraine Security Service described as intercepted phone conversations between separatist rebels and Russian intelligence officials implicated them in the shootdown.

The Security Service released new recordings Friday in which it said rebels discussed possessing and moving the Russian-made Buk missile launcher that Ukraine says shot down the airliner.

The Ukrainian government released video purporting to show rebels moving a Buk antiaircraft missile system to the Russian border Friday from eastern Ukraine. The government claimed that the missile-launcher was missing one of its missiles. Neither the claims nor the authenticity of the video could be independently verified.

Russia pushed back Friday, accusing Poroshenko of poisoning efforts to investigate the crash.

A rebel leader on Thursday had briefly claimed responsibility for downing a plane that he described as a Ukrainian military aircraft. Soon after it was established that a commercial airliner had been shot down, the claim was removed.

Ukraine’s top intelligence official said Friday that the plane crash was being investigated as a criminal case under Ukraine’s terrorism laws.

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, head of the Ukraine Security Service, said Ukraine now believes that the Boeing 777 was shot down by rebel forces using a Buk antiaircraft missile launcher that had recently been moved over the border from Russia. He said Ukraine has detained two Russian citizens who allegedly helped bring the missile launcher into Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence services also observed rebels trying to move back into Russia a Buk launcher that had fired two missiles, he added. It was not immediately possible to independently verify the claims.

“The terrorists are trying to hide the crime,” Nalyvaichenko said.

The Ukraine Security Service on Friday released a second series of recordings of what it said were intercepted phone calls between pro-Russian separatists over the last few days, in which the voices describe being in possession of and moving the Buk missile launcher.

In the first conversation, which the Security Service said took place on July 14, an alleged rebel called “Oleg” said he missed a plane flying above a village. “We already have the Buk,” a woman identified as “Oreon” told him. “We’ll be knocking it down.”

The Security Service said that on additional tapes from July 17, rebels discuss moving the Buk launcher.

“Where do we ship this beauty to, Nikolayevich?” asked an alleged rebel identified by the Security Service as “Buryat.”

“It’s not necessary to hide it anywhere,” came the reply.

The rebel identified as Nikolayevich, also known as “Khmuri,” also talked about stocks of other weapons and the rebels’ relationship with the Russians at one point.

“The thing is, we have Grads, but no spotters,” he said, referring to the mobile, Russian-made multiple rocket launcher. “We are waiting. Supposedly Russia should strike from that side at their positions.”

In recent months, the rebels have shot down numerous Ukrainian military aircraft using short-range surface-to-air missiles. Experts said such missiles probably could not reach a plane flying at 33,000 feet, the reported altitude of Flight 17. But Ukrainian authorities have said the rebels recently obtained Russian-made Buk surface-to-air missiles — a complex system using ground radar to guide a missile to its target. Experts said it requires expertise and training to operate.

In Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday that the international community could not expect Russia to get the pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine to lay down their arms.

But Lavrov said he hoped that the OSCE would send monitors to the Russian-Ukrainian border before the end of the week. In an interview with Rossiya-24 television, he added that Russia was ready to guarantee the safety of those observers at Russia’s own border checkpoints but could make no promises about keeping them safe from bombardments from Ukraine, Interfax reported.

Lavrov also accused Poroshenko of potentially poisoning the investigation of the plane crash by calling for a commission to look into it while also declaring it an act of terrorism.

“Of course, attempts to claim that this was a terrorist act, so the Ukrainian researchers will be guided by this in their work — this is unacceptable, this pressure on the acts of the this commission,” Lavrov said.

In an effort to cooperate with international investigations, Lavrov said, Russia would not accept the black box that rebels said they had recovered from the plane.

“We are not going to take away these boxes,” he said. “We are not going to violate the rules existing with regard to this sort of cases within the international community.”

Aleksey Komarov, a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, called for “a thorough investigation with the use of representatives from all the interested international organizations.”

He alleged that, according to the information available to the Russians, a Ukrainian military Buk-M1 type air defense system capable of bringing down the jet as it cruised at 33,000 feet was stationed in the area near the crash.

“Ukrainian Air Force planes armed with various types of missiles are constantly present in the Donetsk region airspace,” he said on Rossiya 24 TV. “This is an indisputable fact.” He said Kiev’s claims that these systems or planes did not shoot at airborne targets “raise serious doubts.” He added that “planes of the Russian Air Force did not fly in Russian regions bordering the Donetsk region on July 17, 2014.”

The Ukrainians, however, have cited the purported intercepts and conflicting claims by the pro-Russian rebels, who have been operating with tactical Russian assistance, as evidence of their guilt. In recent days, the rebels, who have shot down numerous Ukrainian military aircraft using shorter-range missiles, claimed to have obtained more advanced antiaircraft missile systems.

“Evidence and information we have as of now confirm that it was pro-Russian groups, and unfortunately this tragedy took the lives of 298 people,” Ihor Dolhov, Ukraine’s ambassador to NATO, told the BBC.

Sergei Kavtaradze, a representative of the separatist militias, told Interfax on Friday that the purported recordings of intercepted phone calls amounted to “unprofessional propaganda.”

Faiola reported from Berlin. Craig Whitlock, William Branigin, Ernesto Londoño, David Beard, Ashley Halsey III and Katie Zezima in Washington; Karoun Demirjian in Moscow; Griff Witte in London; Ferry Biedermann in Amsterdam; and Annie Gowen in Kuala Lampur contributed to this report.
Sourcehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/missile-downs-malaysia-airlines-plane-over-ukraine-killing-298-kiev-blames-rebels/2014/07/18/d30205c8-0e4a-11e4-8c9a-923ecc0c7d23_story.html

***

Ukraine’s security agency, the SBU, has released recordings of intercepted phone calls that indicate Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down by a group of Russian-backed Cossack militants northwest of the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, according to the English-language Kyiv Post.
Neither recording — one said to be between Russian military intelligence officers, the other between pro-Russian fighters — could be independently verified.
An unidentified U.S. official confirmed to the Washington Post that the plane had been shot down late Thursday afternoon.
The SBU released transcripts of two phone calls. The first phone call, reports the Kyiv Post, was made 20 minutes after the crash and, according to the SBU, captures Igor Bezler, a Russian military intelligence officer and leading commander of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic.
The second intercepted conversation was apparently between militants nicknamed “Major” and “Greek” immediately upon inspection of the crash site.
Here is the transcript as reported by the Kyiv Post:
Igor Bezler: We have just shot down a plane. Group Minera. It fell down beyond Yenakievo (Donetsk Oblast).
Vasili Geranin (who the SBU identifies as a colonel in the main intelligence department of Russian Federation armed forces): Pilots. Where are the pilots?
IB: Gone to search for and photograph the plane. It’s smoking.
VG: How many minutes ago?
IB: About 30 minutes ago.
SBU comment: The next part of the conversation took place about 40 minutes later.
“Major”: These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin checkpoint. Those Cossacks who are based in Chernukhino.
“Greek”: Yes, Major.
“Major”: The plane fell apart in the air. In the area of Petropavlovskaya mine. The first “200” (code word for dead person). We have found the first “200.” A civilian.
“Greek”: Well, what do you have there?
“Major”: In short, it was 100 per cent a passenger (civilian) aircraft.
“Greek”: Are many people there?
“Major”: Holy sh__t! The debris fell right into the yards (of homes).
“Greek”: What kind of aircraft?
“Major”: I haven’t ascertained this. I haven’t been to the main sight. I am only surveying the scene where the first bodies fell. There are the remains of internal brackets, seats and bodies.
“Greek”: Is there anything left of the weapon?
“Major”: Absolutely nothing. Civilian items, medicinal stuff, towels, toilet paper.
“Greek”: Are there documents?
“Major”: Yes, of one Indonesian student. From a university in Thompson.
Source.

***

The tragedy brings to mind when a Malaysia airliner crashed into the Indian ocean. and, if news of it being shot down are true, it could be reminiscient of the Korean tragedy when flight 007 was shot down by the Soviets.

***
Good post by MoonBear explaining why the plane was flying where it was:

On July 18 2014 10:53 MoonBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 18 2014 09:59 sharkie wrote:
On July 18 2014 09:47 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 18 2014 09:44 lord_nibbler wrote:
On July 18 2014 09:33 Sub40APM wrote:
On July 18 2014 09:24 gruff wrote:
On July 18 2014 09:06 Boblion wrote:
On July 18 2014 05:45 Enzymatic wrote:
Malaysian Prime Minister in press conference:

"If it is concluded that the plane was indeed shot down, we insist that the perpetrators be brought to justice"

Yea sure. Like if they shot down the plane on purpose.
Best fly route ever... really smart to fly over Urkraine atm lol.

RIP.

So they shouldn't bring the perpetrators to justice? Or what exactly are you implying?

Also you can think what you will but it's common flight route for a lot of airlines, it's not like it's just Malaysian airlines that does it.

I think he was saying that although 90% of the blame is on the guy who pressed the fire key, or whatever majority of proportion, the people who designed airline routes over conflict zones for the sake of saving fuel costs are fools and should also share a bit of the blame.

Airlines still fly over Syria and sometimes Afghanistan!
You would expect from anybody, who is able to operate a mobile anti-aircraft rocket unit in coordination with an advanced radar detection unit, to be able to see the difference between a military transporter and a regular civilian airliner.

Yes they do, and they endanger their clients when they choose to fly over combat zones.

Again, you might say that the shareholders of those companies -- who benefit from the fuel price savings -- are right in gambling on the relatively unlikely chance of a surface to air missile strike or you might say they are wrong. But it is an argument that is also worth having, is saving 50-100 dollars on a airline ticket worth a 4% chance of getting blown up by a war zone missile? Should airlines have to publish not just the cost of the tickets but also their planned route and the contingencies so an average customer can select their flights better?


You do know half the cost of a ticket comes from the airport tax. Not avoiding Ukraine air space was a horrible and greedy mistake by Malaysian Air which cost 300 people their lives...

I am just going to cut off this speculation right here.

Malaysia Airlines confirmed that the usual flight route for the plane was earlier declared safe by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). While the ICAO previous put out an alert about the airspace nearby, their press release also states that the loss of MH17 occurred outside of the Simferopol FIR (the potentially unsafe airspace). The Malaysian Airline jet also wasn't the only plane nearby when this happened.

Additionally, the European Cockpit Association has said that the route taken was the usual route a plane would take from Europe to South East Asia.

It is pretty hard to shoot down a passenger airline and because planes have transponders their location will be known to military forces. Airlines also generally file flight plans in advance stating what flight path they plan to take. Additionally it is not uncommon for planes to fly over what would generally be considered "hot spots" through approved flight corridors because those are just the approved routes to take. Opening up flightradar24 right now you can see a whole load of planes flying over Iraq and Afghanistan to name but a few countries.

So this is not some money grabbing conspiracy or anything. The airline followed all the rules and everything seemed fine and unfortunately a terrible terrible tragedy has happened that no one saw coming.



***

I will update the thread as more information becomes available.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Ctone23
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
United States1839 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-18 00:09:22
July 17 2014 15:47 GMT
#2
Wow. Thoughts and prayers with the families and friends of lost loved ones.
TL+ Member
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
July 17 2014 15:54 GMT
#3
Awful news, let's not jump on the 'it was shot down' wagon, although given the recent shootdowns of Ukrainian jets, it's not unlikely

Ps. is that photo related to the incident?
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
Steveling
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Greece10806 Posts
July 17 2014 15:54 GMT
#4
It's almost 100% that it was shot down.
By whom though?
My dick has shrunk to the point where it looks like I have 3 balls.
Thorakh
Profile Joined April 2011
Netherlands1788 Posts
July 17 2014 15:55 GMT
#5
On July 18 2014 00:54 Steveling wrote:
It's almost 100% that it was shot down.
By whom though?
And why?
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
July 17 2014 15:57 GMT
#6
Sources from the Ukrainian Interior ministry say it was a Buk missile fired by Ukrainian rebels. As for why, most likely an accidental downing, they probably thought it was a Ukrainian military cargo plane
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-17 15:59:42
July 17 2014 15:58 GMT
#7
I expect some news about shitty, cold war era radar and surface to air missiles being used by under trained militias.

Russia is going to catch some shit for this if its linked to arms that the militias "acquired from unknown sources".
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Jochan
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Poland1730 Posts
July 17 2014 16:00 GMT
#8
Most likely by mistake, it's not first airplane shot down over that region. Separatists are supported by Russian government with military grade equipment tanks/apc etc. Last time they damaged military plane that was flying at altitude 6000m+.
I cannot imagine them shooting down civilian plane on purpose, someone probably fucked up thinking it was Ukrainian military plane.
"(...)all in the game, yo. All in the game"
playnice
Profile Joined October 2011
Malaysia299 Posts
July 17 2014 16:01 GMT
#9
Could you please take away the photo? We don't need that to illustrate how fucked up this is.
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
July 17 2014 16:02 GMT
#10
This plane should have been at cruising height of 10,000m, you can't hit it with any old SAM.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
hitthat
Profile Joined January 2010
Poland2267 Posts
July 17 2014 16:02 GMT
#11
Buk missiles? Rebels posses so advaced systems? And its still not eliminated?
Shameless BroodWar separatistic, elitist, fanaticaly devoted puritan fanboy.
LennX
Profile Joined October 2010
4554 Posts
July 17 2014 16:02 GMT
#12


This video has been making the rounds on social media. It shows black smoke coming out from an area possibly from the plane that was shot down.

Please remove if it is a hoax video.
Mute user function on TL; http://www.liquiddota.com/blogs/491245-mute-annoying-users-in-lr-threads
Steveling
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Greece10806 Posts
July 17 2014 16:04 GMT
#13
On July 18 2014 00:57 ahswtini wrote:
Sources from the Ukrainian Interior ministry say it was a Buk missile fired by Ukrainian rebels. As for why, most likely an accidental downing, they probably thought it was a Ukrainian military cargo plane


I don't trust their propaganda.
I'll wait for Putin to say something.
My dick has shrunk to the point where it looks like I have 3 balls.
Duka08
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
3391 Posts
July 17 2014 16:04 GMT
#14
Literally no reason to have a still from a movie showing a plane crashing in OP...
JustPassingBy
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
10776 Posts
July 17 2014 16:04 GMT
#15
Great, and egoistic me has to think how I am about to fly over that region to Tel Aviv in a little bit over a month.

Apart from not being sensible, I am apparently not a smart man.
TheBloodyDwarf
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
Finland7524 Posts
July 17 2014 16:04 GMT
#16
So first they shot down ukrainian fighter yesterday and today this.... :O
Fusilero: "I still can't believe he did that, like dude what the fuck there's fandom and then there's what he did like holy shit. I still see it when I close my eyes." <- reaction to the original drunk santa post which later caught on
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
July 17 2014 16:08 GMT
#17
On July 18 2014 01:02 hitthat wrote:
Buk missiles? Rebels posses so advaced systems? And its still not eliminated?

Yeah I wonder how they got those
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
July 17 2014 16:10 GMT
#18
On July 18 2014 01:08 ahswtini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 18 2014 01:02 hitthat wrote:
Buk missiles? Rebels posses so advaced systems? And its still not eliminated?

Yeah I wonder how they got those

They found them, on the ground with a Christmas bow on them. The card said "Good luck with getting your freedom, Your good friend, Big P"
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
mdb
Profile Blog Joined February 2003
Bulgaria4059 Posts
July 17 2014 16:11 GMT
#19
well its pretty clear that the plane was shot down. i mean what are the odds of accident exactly at this place... when you add that separatists in donetzk have shot down ukrainian military plane recently one can get the idea what has happened. such a fucked up tragedy.
Ayaz2810
Profile Joined September 2011
United States2763 Posts
July 17 2014 16:11 GMT
#20
There's no way that a commercial airliner was shot down by mistake. Please say that's not true. If so.... God damn. How fucking senseless. I don't get upset by much. I don't care about the world and its stupid conflicts really. But when 300 innocent people who are (perhaps) not even from the region where the fighting is happening get killed for no reason... I mean what the fuck -_-
Vrtra Vanquisher/Tiamat Trouncer/World Serpent Slayer
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