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On October 18 2019 01:00 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2019 00:09 Jockmcplop wrote:
How exactly is this a better deal than May ever had? May's deal locked the UK into the customs union with the EU, this deal only locks Northern Ireland into the customs union with the EU. so if you don't care about NI this is better?
Thats such a shortsighted and disapointing remark.
It depends on the perspective. You could also say,if you care about northern ireland then this is better because they are leaving the eu a bit less then the rest of england does.
Northern ireland always has 2 sides and better for one side is often worse for the other side. This deal seams kinda fair as both groups get 50% of the vote so they have to come to some sort of mutual agreement.
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United States43966 Posts
On October 18 2019 02:42 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2019 01:00 Gorsameth wrote:On October 18 2019 00:09 Jockmcplop wrote:
How exactly is this a better deal than May ever had? May's deal locked the UK into the customs union with the EU, this deal only locks Northern Ireland into the customs union with the EU. so if you don't care about NI this is better? Thats such a shortsighted and disapointing remark. It depends on the perspective. You could also say,if you care about northern ireland then this is better because they are leaving the eu a bit less then the rest of england does. Northern ireland always has 2 sides and better for one side is often worse for the other side. This deal seams kinda fair as both groups get 50% of the vote so they have to come to some sort of mutual agreement. The eu with ireland in it did agree with the deal,the uk (which represents the interests of the unionists in ireland and also the interests of keeping the kingdom together) did agree with the deal. I dont see what is wrong with a deal that all parties involved had some representation in and did agree on.
He’s ceding NI to RoI. It’s not a new solution to the Irish question, it’s accepting what was previously considered unacceptable. The problem was always “how do we avoid dividing the economy of the island of Ireland without dividing the economy of the United Kingdom?” He hasn’t solved it, he’s given up on it.
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Its still better then the backstop though,at least as far as I can understand.
There is no solution possible that is fully satisfactory for both sides in northern Ireland. Halve of northern Ireland wants to be british and the other halve would prefer to be irish (to simplify it enormously).
But there is also a little bit of common ground. There is people from both sides who want to leave the eu (and also people from both sides who want to stay in the eu).
Given how delicate and difficult the whole situation is I think this deal is not all that unreasonable. The unionists are not fully satisfied,and neither are the nationalists. Which is about the best you can hope for in a situation like this.
Satisfying both sides 100% is impossible (or it would be something like dividing northern Ireland into halve british halve irish,which I also doubt is a solution anyone would want). So giving up on trying that is maybe is a smart thing to do from a pragmatic point of vieuw.
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What's funny is that this has been the easy part (if it is accepted by the parliament). The negotiations which comes after, are waaaaaaay harder.
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On October 18 2019 03:17 Neneu wrote:
What's funny is that this has been the easy part (if it is accepted by the parliament). The negotiations which comes after, are waaaaaaay harder.
I almost think this is going to be the hardest part but the parliament can't be that hopeless, r-right?
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United States43966 Posts
On October 18 2019 03:27 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2019 03:17 Neneu wrote:
What's funny is that this has been the easy part (if it is accepted by the parliament). The negotiations which comes after, are waaaaaaay harder. I almost think this is going to be the hardest part but the parliament can't be that hopeless, r-right?
Boris has a minority government propped up by hardline Northern Irish loyalists who will never consider this deal. If it passes then it passes with cross party support, so it comes down to Corbyn who Boris has refused to include in the process and doesn’t really want a deal.
In short it’s not looking good. Boris should have called for a national coalition a long time ago, if you need Labour votes then you need Labour participation. If they can blame you for making a bad deal then they can refuse it saying that they’ll make a better deal. He can’t get their votes while excluding them from negotiations.
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Northern Ireland26760 Posts
It’s intriguing to me, although I can’t see it getting through.
I could see it being potentially advantageous to Northern Ireland really, having more of a link to the EU zone would make us an attractive proposition for certain things and attract much needed investment. We don’t need handouts from the mainland we need sustainable investment and not to have many of our best and brightest haemorrhaging to London or Dublin.
With the rather big caveat here that there are large segments of our population who are rather fixated with the national identity issue and that will trump such lines of thinking I’d imagine e.
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On October 18 2019 03:17 Neneu wrote:
What's funny is that this has been the easy part (if it is accepted by the parliament). The negotiations which comes after, are waaaaaaay harder. I think that depends on how you look at it. With Brexit done in the public eye the negotiations will be a lot less politically charged and negotiators will actually be able to do their thing without politicians mucking about as much with impossible demands.
It will be a long process with a lot of problems to solve along the way for sure but I'm pretty sure they will eventually (could easily be over a decade) get it done.
North Ireland is probably going to be stuck in the EU customs union for the foreseeable future tho. (saying indefinitely feels a little to far but probably accurate).
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On October 18 2019 03:40 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2019 03:17 Neneu wrote:
What's funny is that this has been the easy part (if it is accepted by the parliament). The negotiations which comes after, are waaaaaaay harder. I think that depends on how you look at it. With Brexit done in the public eye the negotiations will be a lot less politically charged and negotiators will actually be able to do their thing without politicians mucking about as much with impossible demands. It will be a long process with a lot of problems to solve along the way for sure but I'm pretty sure they will eventually (could easily be over a decade) get it done. North Ireland is probably going to be stuck in the EU customs union for the foreseeable future tho. (saying indefinitely feels a little to far but probably accurate).
The future relationship and trade deal requires the support of every country and must be ratified by every national parliament.
Will other states have red lines? Would the parliaments of eastern European countries be prepared to sign off on a deal if they were not satisfied that their citizens working in the UK were being treated fairly? Will France and Netherlands accept fishing treaty? Will Spain accept the role of Gibraltar? Will Luxembourg accept that UK gets a free pass for their financial services in tax havens, while they are being punished? There are ton of trip wires in the future negotiations which will make the current introductory deal seem like a cakewalk.
Take the word of people who worked as trade negotiators for the deal with Canada, this part where we are right now is the easy part.
I also suspect there aren't much goodwill left in a lot of EU parliaments as well. Being hard on UK will be a vote winning stance.
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On October 18 2019 03:38 Wombat_NI wrote:
It’s intriguing to me, although I can’t see it getting through.
I could see it being potentially advantageous to Northern Ireland really, having more of a link to the EU zone would make us an attractive proposition for certain things and attract much needed investment. We don’t need handouts from the mainland we need sustainable investment and not to have many of our best and brightest haemorrhaging to London or Dublin.
With the rather big caveat here that there are large segments of our population who are rather fixated with the national identity issue and that will trump such lines of thinking I’d imagine e.
yes,this deal could turn out very well for the economy of northern ireland as a whole. They could function as a sort of birdgehead and be an atractive place to be for many different corporations.
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On October 17 2019 22:33 ahswtini wrote:
Juncker has ruled out granting an extension, reason being that there is now a deal that both sides have agreed to.
Source?
Also pointing out that financial Times has Johnson losing this by three votes and election map UK predicting a tied vote.
Gonna be close.
Election maps 311 for 311 against 11 non voters 13 unknown
https://mobile.twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1184894286728499201
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On October 18 2019 07:52 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2019 03:38 Wombat_NI wrote:
It’s intriguing to me, although I can’t see it getting through.
I could see it being potentially advantageous to Northern Ireland really, having more of a link to the EU zone would make us an attractive proposition for certain things and attract much needed investment. We don’t need handouts from the mainland we need sustainable investment and not to have many of our best and brightest haemorrhaging to London or Dublin.
With the rather big caveat here that there are large segments of our population who are rather fixated with the national identity issue and that will trump such lines of thinking I’d imagine e. yes,this deal could turn out very well for the economy of northern ireland as a whole. They could function as a sort of birdgehead and be an atractive place to be for many different corporations.
Whereas the rest of the UK is going to be like a fucking ghosttown.
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What will happen to Scotland if this deal does end up going through? They've seemed rather keen to stay in the EU. Are they still talking about another referendum like they were a little while back?
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On October 18 2019 08:26 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2019 22:33 ahswtini wrote:
Juncker has ruled out granting an extension, reason being that there is now a deal that both sides have agreed to. Source? Also pointing out that financial Times has Johnson losing this by three votes and election map UK predicting a tied vote. Gonna be close. Election maps 311 for 311 against 11 non voters 13 unknown https://mobile.twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1184894286728499201
He said so in an interview. Adding that albeit it is not for him to decide but that he's of that opinion.
I heard that part on the radio yesterday.
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On October 18 2019 10:51 Ben... wrote:
What will happen to Scotland if this deal does end up going through? They've seemed rather keen to stay in the EU. Are they still talking about another referendum like they were a little while back?
Scotland currently runs a 7% current account deficit, EU membership rules state deficit needs to be 3% or lower.
So we could see a left wing party run a hard austerity budget in order to get back into the EU.
Interesting times.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/21/scotland-2018-deficit-higher-than-uk-as-a-whole-last-year
The Gers report said Scotland’s fiscal gap had consistently been 7% higher than the UK’s over the last five years.
She said Scotland’s notional deficit was the highest in the EU. Cyprus had the next nearest, at 4.8%, while Romania’s was at 3% and France at 2.5%. EU membership rules require member states to have a budget deficit below 3%.
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I wouldn't be surprised if the promise of open arms (Tusk) extended to former member states of the UK - in case it might break up.
The Scottish economy not being the best was illustrated nicely to me by the condition of their roads a couple weeks back. Wow are they bad.
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The uk wont end up being a ghost town ever. They are important to the financial markets,they have a lot of international coroporations,they will get a good trade deal with both the eu and the usa.
Tbh I can see the whole brexit end up being favorable for the uk economy after only a few years. Britain will be very flexible and be able to adept quickly. Much faster then the eu can adept,needing the support of all its members and being less coherent in general.
What interest would the elite of Britain have to let the economy go to hell? None,zero interest. People should be a bit more optimistic and have a bit more faith. Yes there are potential downsides but there is also many potential upsides.
In few years when Europe has another crisis you all will be happy to be out.
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On October 18 2019 18:22 pmh wrote:
The uk wont end up being a ghost town ever. They are important to the financial markets,they have a lot of international coroporations,they will get a good trade deal with both the eu and the usa.
Tbh I can see the whole brexit end up being favorable for the uk economy after only a few years. Britain will be very flexible and be able to adept quickly. Much faster then the eu can adept,needing the support of all its members and being less coherent in general.
What interest would the elite of Britain have to let the economy go to hell? None,zero interest. People should be a bit more optimistic and have a bit more faith. Yes there are potential downsides but there is also many potential upsides.
In few years when Europe has another crisis you all will be happy to be out. Yeah, your aware those financial markets and international corporations are in the UK because it was a good place from which to have access to the EU market right?
Without EU access they don't feel as strongly about being in the UK, and certainly not with the same workforce. Companies have already been moving for the past few years, more will follow and expect a lot of downsizing if Brexit finally happens.
The British economy crashing means cheaper labor for the elite, and they can simply invest their money abroad if they have to.
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On October 18 2019 18:22 pmh wrote:
The uk wont end up being a ghost town ever. They are important to the financial markets,they have a lot of international coroporations,they will get a good trade deal with both the eu and the usa.
Tbh I can see the whole brexit end up being favorable for the uk economy after only a few years. Britain will be very flexible and be able to adept quickly. Much faster then the eu can adept,needing the support of all its members and being less coherent in general.
What interest would the elite of Britain have to let the economy go to hell? None,zero interest. People should be a bit more optimistic and have a bit more faith. Yes there are potential downsides but there is also many potential upsides.
In few years when Europe has another crisis you all will be happy to be out.
A few things...
When you say 'the economy' you are just being incredibly vague.
You could say the tories have improved the economy since the financial crash, but you could also say that quality of life for most people in the UK has dropped dramatically.
What they do is collect tax from the population so they don't have to collect any from corporations, and cut public services down to nothing so only rich people have access to anything at all so the population gets punished so 'the economy' can heal. We already have a low wage economy and that's only going to get worse and worse after Brexit, unless Labour get in in which case the high level economy will suffer.
There will be massive net loss due to Brexit, but its ok for the elites because that loss will only fall on the population. If you can't see that after the last 10 years I don't know what you've been looking at.
Being a tax haven for financial companies and massive international corporations does nothing for the people of this country, unless you still somehow believe in the completely discredited idea of trickle down economics.
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On October 18 2019 13:10 Artisreal wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2019 08:26 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On October 17 2019 22:33 ahswtini wrote:
Juncker has ruled out granting an extension, reason being that there is now a deal that both sides have agreed to. Source? Also pointing out that financial Times has Johnson losing this by three votes and election map UK predicting a tied vote. Gonna be close. Election maps 311 for 311 against 11 non voters 13 unknown https://mobile.twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1184894286728499201 He said so in an interview. Adding that albeit it is not for him to decide but that he's of that opinion. I heard that part on the radio yesterday.
Macron is now also saying the same thing.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/brexit-extension-unavoidable-if-mps-reject-deal-says-merkel
Macron told reporters: “I am not trying to read into the future but I do not think we shall grant any further delay. I think it is time to put an end to these negotiations and move on to the future relationship. And put to an end to what is currently ongoing.
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