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Northern Ireland22212 Posts
On October 17 2019 19:26 Gorsameth wrote:
Based on what I saw yesterday, North Ireland stays in the EU customs union, which would mean a border between NI and the rest of the UK. Which the DUP is unlikely to accept and kills the deal before its born unless they can scrape together enough MP's willing to fuck over NI from the opposition.
Looks to me like Johnson saw the problem for him with another extension coming followed by a vote of no confidence and elections. So he is positioning himself to say he delivered the best Brexit deal by the Irish stopped him to head into the elections and try and get a majority without the DUP.
This could work for him, except I think the Brexit vote would be heavily split between CONS and BXP
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Northern Ireland26762 Posts
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Johnson is really proud of his new deal, meanwhile everyone else is like "not gonna happen"
This would be really funny if not so tragic
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On October 17 2019 20:43 Harris1st wrote:
Johnson is really proud of his new deal, meanwhile everyone else is like "not gonna happen"
This would be really funny if not so tragic
Its probably an election play. Its the sort of deal Johnson would have voted down a few months ago i would imagine, he's just forcing Labour to say no so they look like the bad guys in any upcoming election.
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Northern Ireland26762 Posts
On October 17 2019 20:46 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2019 20:43 Harris1st wrote:
Johnson is really proud of his new deal, meanwhile everyone else is like "not gonna happen"
This would be really funny if not so tragic Its probably an election play. Its the sort of deal Johnson would have voted down a few months ago i would imagine, he's just forcing Labour to say no so they look like the bad guys in any upcoming election.
Probably, sadly.
Maybe it’s just too fractious a task, I feel a great deal of political capital was there for whoever could have grasped the bull by the horns and tried to play the unifier/division healer angle. It’s been sorely lacking these last few years.
I’m not naive about the realities of partisan politics by any means, Brexit is a special case where everyone is basically screwing themselves whilst trying to screw other people over, especially in the medium and long-term.
In the DUP’s case I’m quite happy they’re doing so, but across the board it’s rather aggravating.
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The new deal is already being challenged in court because because of a 2018 law that says its unlawful for Her Majesty's Government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain" https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-50076186
So the deal looks to be strait up illegal by UK law.
Gonne be hard to blame the Irish for not accepting it.
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Northern Ireland22212 Posts
Juncker has ruled out granting an extension, reason being that there is now a deal that both sides have agreed to.
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That'd be funny if junker just granted BJ his wildest dreams of a no deal brexit for which he can blame the opposition...
But I'm rather uncertain whether he actually had the power to actually rule out an extension. He might put his political weight behind it but surely this is a thing for the MEPs to decide rather than him.
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Also voting on this deal and related legislations will take more time than 2 weeks, right?
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There is a deal,now it only has to pass parliament. It seems that the ordeal is getting close to over.
Either parliament will accept the deal or parliament will refuse the deal. If they refuse the deal then boris calls for new elections which he will win easily now that he actually has a better deal then may ever had, after which the current deal will still pass the new parliament (if needed then the eu would give an extension for this scenario I think)
But the queen said 31 October,so I am still counting on parliament accepting the deal right now. Refusing the deal and facing new elections doesn't seem all that attractive for labour anymore.
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How exactly is this a better deal than May ever had?
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United States43967 Posts
This has all the same problems we had 4 years ago. It’s not a deal, it’s just we’ve gone around the cycle and ended up back before we realize this plan cannot work.
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Parliament won't pass it without a referendum amendment I guess. So an extension will be required.
I want to shed a tear for Theresa May. At least she tried to actually deliver on something. Boris Johnson locked himself in such a corner that everything he does is pure politics, no substance.
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On October 18 2019 00:09 Jockmcplop wrote:
How exactly is this a better deal than May ever had? May's deal locked the UK into the customs union with the EU, this deal only locks Northern Ireland into the customs union with the EU.
so if you don't care about NI this is better?
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Northern Ireland22212 Posts
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United States43967 Posts
Obviously the hypocrisy is staggering but what really gets me is how surprised he is that what the EU President recommends for the EU as a whole isn’t subject to British law.
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There's a comment on that Tweet which I found too good not to share:
Behold: The dog that caught the car.
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Is there some sort of summary what makes this different from May's dumpster fire of a deal?
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On October 18 2019 01:54 Mohdoo wrote:
Is there some sort of summary what makes this different from May's dumpster fire of a deal?
GB/UK isn't bound by EU customs union or single market rules only a non legally binding statement that it will keep up high standards in environment workers rights in the political declaration.
NI is essentially in the backstop but for 4 years, after 4 years there can be a vote for the northern irish parliament where they can choose to leave the backstop if there is no vote or it doesnt pass then they stay as they are for another 4 years.
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The main difference is that Northern Ireland will have different laws and regulations to the rest of the UK, with all the checks that will need.
This is just Boris Johnson deciding that he doesn't need the DUP, and/or is fighting the next election. Either way, much like May's deal, it's not particularly clear what the deal is and how it will work. My guess is that significant "concessions" by Boris was made to find a deal acceptable to Ireland and EU.
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EPT
