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UK Politics Mega-thread - Page 554

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https://www.registertovote.service.gov.uk
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4379 Posts
September 05 2019 23:25 GMT
#11061
Interesting voting intention poll shows the difference in intent between vote before Oct31 or after :

Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK)
Westminster Voting Intention:

If Election BEFORE 31st Oct:

CON: 37%
LAB: 30%
BXP: 9%

If Election AFTER 31st Oct:

CON: 28%
LAB: 28%
BXP: 18%

Via @ICMResearch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7958 Posts
September 06 2019 01:22 GMT
#11062
On September 06 2019 08:25 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Interesting voting intention poll shows the difference in intent between vote before Oct31 or after :

Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK)
Westminster Voting Intention:

If Election BEFORE 31st Oct:

CON: 37%
LAB: 30%
BXP: 9%

If Election AFTER 31st Oct:

CON: 28%
LAB: 28%
BXP: 18%

Via @ICMResearch.

Weird, where are the lib dem?

From other polls, it seems both BXP+CON is doing more or less exactly the same than LAB+LBD+Green, around 46 / 47%

It’s amazing that after this week, a third of voters still consider voting Johnson. What a time we live in...
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9768 Posts
September 06 2019 07:00 GMT
#11063
On September 06 2019 10:22 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2019 08:25 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Interesting voting intention poll shows the difference in intent between vote before Oct31 or after :

Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK)
Westminster Voting Intention:

If Election BEFORE 31st Oct:

CON: 37%
LAB: 30%
BXP: 9%

If Election AFTER 31st Oct:

CON: 28%
LAB: 28%
BXP: 18%

Via @ICMResearch.

Weird, where are the lib dem?

From other polls, it seems both BXP+CON is doing more or less exactly the same than LAB+LBD+Green, around 46 / 47%

It’s amazing that after this week, a third of voters still consider voting Johnson. What a time we live in...


I hope rightwingers keep telling us this election is a foregone conclusion and Johnson will win by a massive landslide.
That kind of confidence is reassuring.
RIP Meatloaf <3
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11731 Posts
September 06 2019 07:36 GMT
#11064
It is gonna be pretty weird and random, because you mix FPTP with more than two parties. I think no one can really estimate very well how that will turn out. National % Totals are slightly relevant, but not all that important because in FPTP it is far more important how those people are spread out over the election areas.
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
September 06 2019 08:59 GMT
#11065
It appears to me no matter what the union took a massive hit and neither con nor Brexit party seem to care in the slightest about the island of Ireland's stability.

Didn't Nancy pelosi say that unless the good Friday agreement is heeded, there won't be a trade deal? I have never seen this addressed by either party in Westminster.
passive quaranstream fan
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22070 Posts
September 06 2019 10:01 GMT
#11066
On September 06 2019 17:59 Artisreal wrote:
It appears to me no matter what the union took a massive hit and neither con nor Brexit party seem to care in the slightest about the island of Ireland's stability.

Didn't Nancy pelosi say that unless the good Friday agreement is heeded, there won't be a trade deal? I have never seen this addressed by either party in Westminster.
The government in general appears to work really hard at completely ignoring what to do about the Irish border despite repeatedly saying that the backstop is the problem with the EU's offer.
Probably because they know there is no acceptable solution so talking about it can only highlight their own failures.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5747 Posts
September 06 2019 10:28 GMT
#11067
On September 06 2019 17:59 Artisreal wrote:
It appears to me no matter what the union took a massive hit and neither con nor Brexit party seem to care in the slightest about the island of Ireland's stability.

Didn't Nancy pelosi say that unless the good Friday agreement is heeded, there won't be a trade deal? I have never seen this addressed by either party in Westminster.


I believe Trump also said that there won't be a trade deal if the UK maintains regulatory alignment with the EU. Those two positions are at odds.
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7958 Posts
September 06 2019 10:34 GMT
#11068
On September 06 2019 19:28 maybenexttime wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2019 17:59 Artisreal wrote:
It appears to me no matter what the union took a massive hit and neither con nor Brexit party seem to care in the slightest about the island of Ireland's stability.

Didn't Nancy pelosi say that unless the good Friday agreement is heeded, there won't be a trade deal? I have never seen this addressed by either party in Westminster.


I believe Trump also said that there won't be a trade deal if the UK maintains regulatory alignment with the EU. Those two positions are at odds.

I honestly don’t think that what Trump says matters that much at that point. He has no clue what he is talking about, nothing is thought through and he will probably not be president anymore when it’s time to make said deals.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
Maverick_2009
Profile Joined December 2014
Somewhere2002 Posts
September 06 2019 11:00 GMT
#11069
On September 06 2019 19:34 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2019 19:28 maybenexttime wrote:
On September 06 2019 17:59 Artisreal wrote:
It appears to me no matter what the union took a massive hit and neither con nor Brexit party seem to care in the slightest about the island of Ireland's stability.

Didn't Nancy pelosi say that unless the good Friday agreement is heeded, there won't be a trade deal? I have never seen this addressed by either party in Westminster.


I believe Trump also said that there won't be a trade deal if the UK maintains regulatory alignment with the EU. Those two positions are at odds.

I honestly don’t think that what Trump says matters that much at that point. He has no clue what he is talking about, nothing is thought through and he will probably not be president anymore when it’s time to make said deals.

but hurricane dorian was totally going to devastate alabama, oh no! the forecast even showed alabama was included by a circle specially using black marker!
https://www.twitch.tv/deso_739
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5747 Posts
September 06 2019 11:39 GMT
#11070
On September 06 2019 19:34 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2019 19:28 maybenexttime wrote:
On September 06 2019 17:59 Artisreal wrote:
It appears to me no matter what the union took a massive hit and neither con nor Brexit party seem to care in the slightest about the island of Ireland's stability.

Didn't Nancy pelosi say that unless the good Friday agreement is heeded, there won't be a trade deal? I have never seen this addressed by either party in Westminster.


I believe Trump also said that there won't be a trade deal if the UK maintains regulatory alignment with the EU. Those two positions are at odds.

I honestly don’t think that what Trump says matters that much at that point. He has no clue what he is talking about, nothing is thought through and he will probably not be president anymore when it’s time to make said deals.


I'm not sure what powers their president has exactly, but if he's in a position to block a deal, then his opinion might matter. And I would't put re-electing Trump past the American voters. They're very tribal when it comes to politics.
Belisarius
Profile Joined November 2010
Australia6233 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-06 13:11:28
September 06 2019 13:07 GMT
#11071
It's not that Trump has no power. It's that something Trump once said/tweeted/did is not even slightly predictive of what he will say/tweet/do in future.
Razyda
Profile Joined March 2013
896 Posts
September 09 2019 09:24 GMT
#11072
Ok, so lets say BJ asks for extension, what reason would it be?? If I remember correctly EU stance on last time was that no extension will be granted, unless there is referendum/election coming. Referendum is not going to happen and election didnt make it through the HoC, so realistically there is no reason to get extension. Lets say he will get an extensions till 31st January - what there to stop him from slouching around for a bit and then calling election on 15th January and essentially putting UK in the same position it would be if election was called now on 15th October??
There also is an issue that Brexit preparation in EU (I am saying EU because I am somewhat doubtful about UK ones) will reach the point where no Brexit is actually more damaging than any Brexit.
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9768 Posts
September 09 2019 09:47 GMT
#11073
On September 09 2019 18:24 Razyda wrote:
Ok, so lets say BJ asks for extension, what reason would it be?? If I remember correctly EU stance on last time was that no extension will be granted, unless there is referendum/election coming. Referendum is not going to happen and election didnt make it through the HoC, so realistically there is no reason to get extension. Lets say he will get an extensions till 31st January - what there to stop him from slouching around for a bit and then calling election on 15th January and essentially putting UK in the same position it would be if election was called now on 15th October??
There also is an issue that Brexit preparation in EU (I am saying EU because I am somewhat doubtful about UK ones) will reach the point where no Brexit is actually more damaging than any Brexit.


There will be an election before the end of the year though.
RIP Meatloaf <3
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22070 Posts
September 09 2019 10:46 GMT
#11074
On September 09 2019 18:24 Razyda wrote:
Ok, so lets say BJ asks for extension, what reason would it be?? If I remember correctly EU stance on last time was that no extension will be granted, unless there is referendum/election coming. Referendum is not going to happen and election didnt make it through the HoC, so realistically there is no reason to get extension. Lets say he will get an extensions till 31st January - what there to stop him from slouching around for a bit and then calling election on 15th January and essentially putting UK in the same position it would be if election was called now on 15th October??
There also is an issue that Brexit preparation in EU (I am saying EU because I am somewhat doubtful about UK ones) will reach the point where no Brexit is actually more damaging than any Brexit.
I don't expect the EU to give the UK the finger, even tho I've wanted them to for a while now. Yes they are burning money preparing for a Brexit that may never happen but that's a better alternative then Brexit itself.
I heard talk that HoC could vote in favor of a new election once the extension was through the HoL? Donno if anything has come from that.

As for Boris's talk to the EU when asking for his extension? I expect it to be weak at best with the possibility of being strait comical. Boris doesn't want the extension, he wants to crash out and while Parliament might have ordered him to ask for the extension he can put forth the weakest defence and attempt to sabotage it in whatever way he can.
The EU saying no last minute so Parliament no longer has time to act would be a dream come true for Boris.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
schaf
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany1326 Posts
September 09 2019 12:34 GMT
#11075
Wouldn't put it past the EU to hate Boris so much they give the UK an extension just to spite him. This morning I heard him talking in Ireland about that he would really like to leave with a deal. Well his deal, that doesn't exist and CAN'T when he dissolves the group who would negotiate such a deal (reddit thread ).

I mean he constantly forces his European colleagues to basically call him a liar, how indecent is that? My money is (or at least would be) on extension -> election -> small renegotiations -> passing of withdrawal agreement.
Axiom wins more than it loses. Most viewers don't. - <3 TB
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
September 09 2019 13:20 GMT
#11076
my money is on: whatever (extension/no deal) --> election --> conservative win --> (still) no deal
passive quaranstream fan
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5747 Posts
September 09 2019 18:42 GMT
#11077
I'm predicting the parliament being with its back against the wall, revoking a. 50, and Boris swallowing the Brexit Party, winning the election and shrugging his hands, admitting that he can't leave after a. 50 was revoked.
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9768 Posts
September 09 2019 19:38 GMT
#11078
On September 10 2019 03:42 maybenexttime wrote:
I'm predicting the parliament being with its back against the wall, revoking a. 50, and Boris swallowing the Brexit Party, winning the election and shrugging his hands, admitting that he can't leave after a. 50 was revoked.


If A50 ever gets revoked there will be no more politics that isn't brexit.
God what a fucking nightmare.
RIP Meatloaf <3
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4742 Posts
September 09 2019 20:13 GMT
#11079
Isn't that the case already?
Pathetic Greta hater.
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-09-09 20:29:21
September 09 2019 20:29 GMT
#11080
On September 10 2019 04:38 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 10 2019 03:42 maybenexttime wrote:
I'm predicting the parliament being with its back against the wall, revoking a. 50, and Boris swallowing the Brexit Party, winning the election and shrugging his hands, admitting that he can't leave after a. 50 was revoked.


If A50 ever gets revoked there will be no more politics that isn't brexit.
God what a fucking nightmare.


At least then the status quo will be "stay" rather than "extension limbo"
Bora Pain minha porra!
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