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New yougov 2-3 September
With a general election now looking highly likely, the latest YouGov/Times voting intention survey sees the Conservatives on 35% (from 33% in our most recent survey last week), while Labour hold 25% (from 22%). The Lib Dem vote now stands of 16%, a five point drop from 21% last week, although consistent with the 17% they obtained in the survey before that.
Elsewhere, the Brexit Party holds 11% of the vote (from 12%) and the Greens likewise have 7% (unchanged).
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On September 04 2019 08:02 Jockmcplop wrote: Can you imagine Boris trying to sustain an election campaign under pressure if he fails like he did today? It'll be Theresa May all over again, except he just sacked half the competent people in his party.
Is he going to refuse to debate again? I don't think the public will accept it.
For some incomprehensible reason the public appears to be - by a small margin - on Johnson's side, going by the projected performance of the Conservative Party (which is proposing the most radical change in UK politics in a generation).
Also yes, Jacob Rees Mogg is a twat of the highest, finest Etonian order. Prime twat, twattier than most other twats the Tories have produced, despite being a wonderful breeding ground of said twats.
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For people who are pro-brexit, I am genuinely curious: Setting aside what you WANT to happen, do you EXPECT your original view of Brexit will end up happening?
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People should be careful about predicting the results of elections at Brexit time. We have no idea what will happen. Just like always.
Also Corbyn winning fans in the city lol!
When people who run banks are considering supporting a hardcore lefty, what does that tell you about no-deal Brexit?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/03/corbyn-better-no-deal-brexit-say-investment-banks-anti-capitalist/
Jeremy Corbyn, the scourge of bankers and avowed opponent of capitalism, is winning support from unexpected new quarters: two of the biggest global banks operating in the City of London are warming to the Labour leader.
Unlikely as it may seem, he is now seen as the lesser of two evils by analysts at Citibank and Deutsche Bank, respectively American and German titans of the financial system.
“Is Corbyn as bad as no-deal? Perhaps no longer,” said Christian Schulz at Citi.
It is not that the financiers favour the opposition leader’s plans for “higher taxes, tighter labour laws, spending increases and the nationalisation of network industries”, but that this may cause less harm than leaving the EU without a deal.
“A year ago, a Labour government would have been a big economic downside risk,” said Mr Schulz. “These risks to the longer-term outlook have not changed, but Labour has become more decisively pro-EU over the past 12 months.”
Deutsche’s Oliver Harvey sees an early general election as “the least worst outcome” because a Labour-Lib Dem alliance could stop or soften Brexit, while a larger Conservative majority would stand a better chance of negotiating a deal than the current minority government.
Mr Harvey acknowledged that financiers were worried about Mr Corbyn, but said “these fears may be overstated”.
“First, any market-unfriendly policies instigated during a Labour government are temporary (until the government is voted out of office), and must be set against the permanent shock caused by a no deal Brexit,” he said.
“Second, we see the magnitude of economic damage caused by a no deal Brexit as much higher than policies proposed in the last Labour manifesto.”
On top of that, he hopes that a Labour Government would have to rely on the Liberal Democrats, who could potentially rein in Mr Corbyn’s strongest anti-business instincts.
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The real irony here is Britain possibly needing to rely on a foreign leader to ensure democracy is upheld.
A majority of people voted to leave the EU.Parliament can ask the EU for another extension, probably they would get it but that is not 100% chance.Remember the renegotiated date was supposed to be Dec 31 but Macron demanded Oct 31.Having to rely on the French? If that’s what it comes to...
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United States41984 Posts
On September 04 2019 08:56 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: The real irony here is Britain possibly needing to rely on a foreign leader to ensure democracy is upheld.
A majority of people voted to leave the EU.Parliament can ask the EU for another extension, probably they would get it but that is not 100% chance.Remember the renegotiated date was supposed to be Dec 31 but Macron demanded Oct 31.Having to rely on the French? If that’s what it comes to... I think the real irony is that Brexiteers have clearly shown that Britain is incapable of governing itself on the global stage. If Boris Johnson is what sovereignty looks like I think we ought to stay well clear of it. As you say, we're at the point of "hopefully the French won't let us use our freedom to destroy ourselves".
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I get that there pretty much has to be an election now that Boris has lost his majority but I can't see how it will solve Brexit unless there are some big swings from recent polling. You are very likely to end up where you are today with a parliament with no majority for any Brexit outcome.
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The parlement has refused any kind of deal in order to prevent the brexit to happen, they played with fire and got the hard deal, gratz to them but the debate has lasted since 2 years now, maybe it's time to apply a democratic decision and puts an end to this. On this part, I totally support Johnson (a member of the conservatice oligarchy) against the international elite.
It reminds me when the french parlement in 2008 erased the 2005 referundum, a great democratic moment for most of the brave liberal posters of this website for sure. When I heard "coup d'etat" from the same who as soon as the referundum was over claimed it was invalid is quite ironic and is showing what occidental democracies really are.
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Eton Boys Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, men of the people, totally not the elite!
e: so you edited it to 'international' elite whoever they might be. Dunno, I don't think wrecking your own economy is the best way of sticking it to the EU overlords.
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On September 04 2019 16:38 stilt wrote: The parlement has refused any kind of deal in order to prevent the brexit to happen, they played with fire and got the hard deal, gratz to them but the debate has lasted since 2 years now, maybe it's time to apply a democratic decision and puts an end to this. On this part, I totally support Johnson (a member of the conservatice oligarchy) against the international elite.
It reminds me when the french parlement in 2008 erased the 2005 referundum, a great democratic moment for most of the brave liberal posters of this website for sure. When I heard "coup d'etat" from the same who as soon as the referundum was over claimed it was invalid is quite ironic and is showing what occidental democracies really are.
Do you think politicians from areas of the UK which voted overwhemingly to remain should give up on trying to represent their constituents? Isn't that completely anti-democratic in the most basic sense, expecting polticians not to represent the people they were elected to represent?
For example, Ken Clarke was sacked last night for trying to stop no deal when his constituency voted 59/41 in favour of remain. Do you think he should have abandoned his constituents and voted for no deal, instead prioritizing the wishes of people NOT in his constituency over the people who elected him MP, and who he is charged with representing?
To me, all of this just serves to illustrate how fucking stupid it is holding a yes/no referendum on an issue that splits parties in our current political system. It was ALWAYS going to lead where we are now, eventually, because the referendum was fundamentally incompatible with the system within which it took place.
What no-one is talking about right now is the possibility of Labour taking control of the country by other means than a general election. If they can get a vote of no confidence in Johnson passed, Corbyn may be able to just form a government.
I can't see it being a popular move, but its possible.
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I donno, i'm skeptical of Corbyn being able to get a majority to support him. Its one thing for MP's to break with their party to avoid the disaster of a no-deal brexit, its quite another for them to vote in the opposition as leader.
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On September 04 2019 16:38 stilt wrote: The parlement has refused any kind of deal in order to prevent the brexit to happen, they played with fire and got the hard deal, gratz to them but the debate has lasted since 2 years now, maybe it's time to apply a democratic decision and puts an end to this. On this part, I totally support Johnson (a member of the conservatice oligarchy) against the international elite.
It reminds me when the french parlement in 2008 erased the 2005 referundum, a great democratic moment for most of the brave liberal posters of this website for sure. When I heard "coup d'etat" from the same who as soon as the referundum was over claimed it was invalid is quite ironic and is showing what occidental democracies really are. Pretty much every MP has voted for some type of exit, just never 50% + 1 for the same one. If Boris, JRM and the ERG minions had supported for example Ken Clarke's preferred type of exit this would have been over.
So where's the logic here in calling MPs that don't support the most reckless option which doesn't have public support either as undemocratic while at the same time giving Boris & co a pass for not supporting the more tame options? He's pulled the wool over your eyes.
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So, Boris has lost his majority in Parliament. By kicking out all the conservatives who voted for the motion to allow a debate on a bill. How petty.
I thought he would try for a vote of no confidence to escape blame for a hard brexit, but instead he simply decides to lose majority of parliament. I don't even understand the thought process behind this. It's just a political suicide by Boris. Only thing I can think of is that by stuffing his cabinet full of disdainful ERG members, those ERG members are just running wild taking revenge against other Conservatives who oppose them, and then they can just escape blame and hide behind Boris, the clown supreme, the Prime Minister, where attention will be paid to instead.
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On September 04 2019 08:56 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: The real irony here is Britain possibly needing to rely on a foreign leader to ensure democracy is upheld.
A majority of people voted to leave the EU.Parliament can ask the EU for another extension, probably they would get it but that is not 100% chance.Remember the renegotiated date was supposed to be Dec 31 but Macron demanded Oct 31.Having to rely on the French? If that’s what it comes to...
To ensure Democracy is upheld? Was that before or after Boris shut down the parliament? The democracy bullet point, which has repeatedly been proven false anyways, has once and for all been shut down. There's no pretence any more.
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But the undemocratic backstop that only the nations affected by it want is undemocratic - you just have to repeat it often enough
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I'm just having a lot of fun reading about those recent developments to be honest. I was hoping Labour would win the next elections, it looks like it's not a done deal right now, but if we get there we're all set.
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On September 05 2019 02:17 Nebuchad wrote: I'm just having a lot of fun reading about those recent developments to be honest. I was hoping Labour would win the next elections, it looks like it's not a done deal right now, but if we get there we're all set. It's entertaining indeed. An election seems inevitable at this point, the question is when it is to be held. Boris desperately wants it before October 31, Labour wants it after. And currently I don't see how Boris will get his way. The Benn legislation will be passed and then Labour just have to sit and wait for Boris fail in his pledges to leave the EU on October 31, 'deal or no deal' 'do or die' etc. There no way they'll give him an election before that.
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To the surprise of basically nobody, Boris isn't getting his October 15th election. He's now trapped dealing with this mess.
Everything seems to be going increasingly wrong for him and those around him. The level of hostility toward him from those in his own party (and those recently kicked out) is becoming quite noticeable.
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United States41984 Posts
He’s apparently the only person who didn’t know they were only letting him be PM because they hate him and want him to suffer.
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I still don't really see much opposition in his own party. Getting around 300 votes under his wing doesn't get him anywhere, yet, but really shows how much backing no deal still has doesn't it?
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