EPTUK Politics Mega-thread - Page 550
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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KwarK
United States43533 Posts
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Ben...
Canada3485 Posts
On August 30 2019 07:15 Dangermousecatdog wrote: If you thought brexit divided up the country, what do you think will leaving UK and joining Ireland will do to Northern Ireland? I was more thinking NI would stay on their own and join the EU, which would at least somewhat allow their current setup to remain. Ireland and NI would still be separate, but all of the issues pertaining to having a physical border would be avoided. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4381 Posts
On August 30 2019 06:00 Oukka wrote: I'm more wary for the currency. There was no real address of that question, and afaik there hasn't been any serious proposals or studies of what Scotland should do. Using Euro outside Eu or pound when outside UK may be difficult for central bank logistics, even if it is only a short term situation. And that doesn't address national feeling or sentimental at all yet Well England said they would not be allowed to use the pound if they left (This was said during the referendum). So they would need to create their own currency and peg it to either the pound or the euro and then hope a Soros like figure doesn’t short it. | ||
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KwarK
United States43533 Posts
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4381 Posts
On August 30 2019 10:05 KwarK wrote: I'd really like to know how you think economics works because it occasionally produces gems like that comment. Countries need to be in the European exchange rate mechanism for two years before they join the euro. In 1992 the UK pound was pegged to the Deutschmark.Soros shorted the pound leading it to crash out of the ERM. Earning him the moniker ‘The man who broke the Bank of England’ Former chancellor Osborne stated Scotland could not keep the pound without England approving its tax and spending levels.Acceptable to the SNP? You tell me.Would they want to keep the pound if it’s crashing? How else to stay in the ERM for two years in order to join the Euro currency than what I suggest. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/9526417/George-Osborne-Independent-Scotland-cannot-keep-pound-without-UK-controls.html The four convergence criteria to join the Euro currency 1.Price stability 2.Sound public finances, to ensure they are sustainable 3.Exchange-rate stability, to demonstrate that a Member State can manage its economy without recourse to excessive currency fluctuations 4.Long-term interest rates, to assess the durability of the convergence https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/euro-area/enlargement-euro-area/convergence-criteria-joining_en | ||
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Melliflue
United Kingdom1389 Posts
On August 30 2019 10:16 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Countries need to be in the European exchange rate mechanism for two years before they join the euro. In 1992 the UK pound was pegged to the Deutschmark.Soros shorted the pound leading it to crash out of the ERM. Earning him the moniker ‘The man who broke the Bank of England’ Short-selling doesn't cause crashes. People short-sell something because they expect a crash. At most all short-selling can do is make others look at what's going on and realise there is a problem. The UK's economic problems of the late 80s and early 90s were caused by the government's policies. They deliberately supercharged the economy and did little to keep inflation and a housing bubble under control. And the UK should not have joined the ERM to begin with. Trying to be part of the ERM forced the UK to have high interest rates during a recession, which compounded the problem. There is this weird myth in the UK that the Tories are good with the economy but that is not backed up by history. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4381 Posts
On August 30 2019 15:00 Melliflue wrote: Short-selling doesn't cause crashes. People short-sell something because they expect a crash. At most all short-selling can do is make others look at what's going on and realise there is a problem. It was the size of the bet that made headlines.And as it stands now I see no way for Scotland to join the ERM for two years in preparation to join the Euro without being in a precarious position.So I would expect shorts to be in play. If Sturgeon had worked out the currency problem Scotland would be independent, that has been my view since the referendum. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18204 Posts
On August 30 2019 09:40 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Well England said they would not be allowed to use the pound if they left (This was said during the referendum). So they would need to create their own currency and peg it to either the pound or the euro and then hope a Soros like figure doesn’t short it. Why? They can just use the Euro (or the Pound). Ecuador uses USD. Montenegro uses Euros. Those are their official currencies. No need to peg anything. And no, they have no official authorization to use the currency, can't print them and don't have any influence over the monetary policy. Doesn't seem to bother them. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4381 Posts
On August 30 2019 16:12 Acrofales wrote: Why? They can just use the Euro (or the Pound). Ecuador uses USD. Montenegro uses Euros. Those are their official currencies. No need to peg anything. And no, they have no official authorization to use the currency, can't print them and don't have any influence over the monetary policy. Doesn't seem to bother them. Montenegro is a special case since it was using the Deutschmark prior to adopting the euro in 1999. The EU website specifically lays out the rules for joining the euro currency https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/euro-area/enlargement-euro-area/introducing-euro/adoption-fixed-euro-conversion-rate/erm-ii-eus-exchange-rate-mechanism_en Participation in ERM II is voluntary although, as one of the convergence criteria for entry to the euro area, a country must participate in the mechanism without severe tensions for at least two years before it can qualify to adopt the euro. Financial times article on EU warning Montenegro that their use of the currency is incompatible with EU law. https://www.ft.com/content/71c9a8f2-74ef-11dc-892d-0000779fd2ac Montenegro’s use of the euro as its national currency is incompatible with European Union law, the bloc’s finance ministers are set to warn. The EU and European Central Bank have not obstructed the euro’s use in Montenegro – or in Kosovo, where it also circulates – but the issue has become more pressing since the country gained independence in 2006. Diplomats said the EU would not take the bizarre step of asking Montenegro to abandon the euro as a prelude to re-adopting it later. Rather, the aim was to underline the legal and economic preconditions of eurozone membership. Just pointing out that I think the pound may be quite unstable in the event of Brexit + Scottish independence. Anyway yesterdays YouGov poll had the conservatives at their highest rating since March 29 The latest YouGov/Times voting intention survey sees the Conservatives extend their lead over Labour to twelve percentage points, with the Tories now on 34% (from 32% last week) to Labour's 22% (unchanged). Where before Labour and the Lib Dems had been almost neck and neck (on 22% and 21% last week respectively), there now exists a five point gap between the two parties, with the Lib Dems falling back to 17% of the vote. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18204 Posts
It's almost like this wasn't a real problem at all! | ||
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Silvanel
Poland4742 Posts
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4381 Posts
On August 30 2019 16:37 Acrofales wrote: So basically what you're saying is that there really is no problem with just using a foreign currency for a while until they have their shit sorted, either by joining the Euro or by setting up their Scottish Pound printing press. It's almost like this wasn't a real problem at all! https://newsnet.scot/archive/euro-pound-sterling-or-scottish-pound/ In order to adopt the euro a country needs its currency to be committed to the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) for two years. Scotland doesn’t have a currency to commit to the ERM, and as Scotland plans to keep the pound, we therefore cannot adopt the euro, even if we wanted to, and so certainly can’t be forced to either. Keeping the Bank of England, and the pound sterling, still gives us a choice to launch our own currency in the future should that be the right decision. Interestingly we don’t have the option to join the Euro (if we ever wanted to) until our own Scottish currency has been launched and has participated in the exchange rate mechanism for at least two years. Basically Scotland has to have it's own currency for two years to join the Euro, if that is actually what they still want. Seems like you cannot use a foreign currency for stability in the 2 year interim period. Independent Scottish pound would be a good idea since the pound sterling would be weak after Brexit + independence. | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
On August 30 2019 15:36 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: It was the size of the bet that made headlines.And as it stands now I see no way for Scotland to join the ERM for two years in preparation to join the Euro without being in a precarious position.So I would expect shorts to be in play. If Sturgeon had worked out the currency problem Scotland would be independent, that has been my view since the referendum. scotlands deficit is more of a problem than the currency | ||
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pmh
1399 Posts
Northern ireland an autonomous region,possibly within ireland. Scotland independant. Boris will go down in history as the pm who broke up the united kingdom lol. Seems kinda unlikely. | ||
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
On August 30 2019 16:56 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: https://newsnet.scot/archive/euro-pound-sterling-or-scottish-pound/ Basically Scotland has to have it's own currency for two years to join the Euro, if that is actually what they still want. Seems like you cannot use a foreign currency for stability in the 2 year interim period. Independent Scottish pound would be a good idea since the pound sterling would be weak after Brexit + independence. Isn't joining Euro now a pretty much requirement for joining EU? I understood that it isn't really an option anymore to not join Euro if you join the EU. Also would the 2 year requirement apply for a newly independent country like (hypothetical) Scotland? Anyways I'd assume most places in Scotland would continue to accept GBP as well as whatever currency Scotland moves into, at least for a good while until the dust settles. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10842 Posts
I mean, Switzerland could probably join easily if "we" wanted but what does happen to all yhe swiss francs? Just abandoning it would have a big impact worldwide. | ||
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KwarK
United States43533 Posts
On September 03 2019 00:31 Velr wrote: I strongly assume that it would be a stated goal. I mean, Switzerland could probably join easily if "we" wanted but what does happen to all yhe swiss francs? Just abandoning it would have a big impact worldwide. Euro denominated value on the day of adoption becomes the value, effectively a peg to the Euro. Can still be used between private individuals as a means of settlement because the Swiss central bank is willing to accept them and give back Euros in return. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9270 Posts
The economic conditions for joining the euro area help to ensure that a country is ready for integration into the monetary regime of the euro area. There are 4 economic convergence criteria: 1. Price stability The inflation rate cannot be higher than 1.5 percentage points above the rate of the 3 best-performing member states. 2. Sound and sustainable public finances Government deficit cannot be higher than 3% of GDP. Government debt cannot be higher than 60% of GDP. 3. Exchange-rate stability The candidate has to participate in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) for at least 2 years without strong deviations from the ERM II central rate and without devaluing its currency's bilateral central rate against the euro in the same period. 4. Long-term interest rates The long-term interest rate should not be higher than 2 percentage points above the rate of the 3 best-performing member states in terms of price stability. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/joining-the-euro-area/convergence-criteria/ | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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