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On June 18 2019 20:18 iamthedave wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2019 16:34 maybenexttime wrote:On June 17 2019 08:13 iamthedave wrote:On June 17 2019 02:43 m4ini wrote:
And people wonder why Brexiters get made fun of.
You're literally economically illiterate.
Here's a hint. What happens to british industries if they have to compete with slave labour countries, you can see in the steel industry. And this is by choice, the UK vetoed resolutions to tariff chinese steel.
If you don't tariff items, you have to compete with labour prices and regulations in other countries. Try competing with a chinese steel worker who works for £300 a month, under shittier circumstances.
And now do that for every industry in the UK. Let me know how that would work out. We don't have industries really. Britain has been a service economy for about a decade now. The real cost of Brexit depends on how much our lost access to Europe affects the value of the services we can offer. 19% of your GDP comes from the industry. The industry is also a major client of your services sector - finances, transportation, catering, etc. Your higher education system works closely with your industry, a lot of research output comes from industrial R&D projects. And services is 80%. They don't belong in the same discussion.
Well if industry takes a 10% hit, you take a loss of about 2% GDP. And while it does not sound like a lot, quite a lot of people and communities will feel that 2% drop.
However I am certain you could make a case for UK's dependence on traditional industry to be the cause of UK's wealth stagnation and one of the drivers for the increasing poverty in the last two decades. So maybe you should be happy to finally see it gone? I do however have doubts that UK government would have the will to invest into the retraining of the workers (even when it is economically beneficial in the long run), if it were to happen, and rather let communities rot and let them descend further into poverty.
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On June 18 2019 20:18 iamthedave wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2019 16:34 maybenexttime wrote:On June 17 2019 08:13 iamthedave wrote:On June 17 2019 02:43 m4ini wrote:
And people wonder why Brexiters get made fun of.
You're literally economically illiterate.
Here's a hint. What happens to british industries if they have to compete with slave labour countries, you can see in the steel industry. And this is by choice, the UK vetoed resolutions to tariff chinese steel.
If you don't tariff items, you have to compete with labour prices and regulations in other countries. Try competing with a chinese steel worker who works for £300 a month, under shittier circumstances.
And now do that for every industry in the UK. Let me know how that would work out. We don't have industries really. Britain has been a service economy for about a decade now. The real cost of Brexit depends on how much our lost access to Europe affects the value of the services we can offer. 19% of your GDP comes from the industry. The industry is also a major client of your services sector - finances, transportation, catering, etc. Your higher education system works closely with your industry, a lot of research output comes from industrial R&D projects. And services is 80%. They don't belong in the same discussion.
Then why did you bring it up?
We were talking about the impact Brexit will likely have on the UK's industry. To say that the UK has practically no industry to speak of is ignorant. You're talking about a fifth of your economy. Roughly 30% of the UK's R&D spending comes from the industry. Probably another 10-20% is spent by universities and state research councils on industrial R&D projects they co-fund. The 19% share in GDP is an underestimation. The industry is a major client for the service sector (IT, consulting, accounting, finances, transportation, catering, etc.). A large part of the service sector relies on the industry being in good shape.
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Still likely to be Boris, expect a big battle tonight between Hunt Gove and Stewart to try get 2nd.
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In what fantasy land are these Conservative MPs living to think Johnson is the best choice in this situation? He's basically a less demented and less unhinged trump.
Flabbergasted
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I am also flabbergasted. He will make a complete mess from the brexit and there is no way I can see it end well. But maybe that's the intention and parliament will still have the last vote.
The britisch economy wont be hurt all that much I think,as someone else said it mostly depends on (financial) services and being out of the eu would probably allow them to cut some regulations and scrap some rules,making them more attractive as well.
Scrapping all import tariffs,i wonder how that will work out. It must be quiet a large sum of income that the britisch government will lose,they will have to make up for that one way or the other. I can see the benefit as well,it will help keep inflation under control and if Britain leaves eu without deal I expect the bank of England to print quiet a bit of extra pounds which would put pressure on inflation. I am not sure its sound in the long run but who cares about that these days.
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Tories have to defend on their exposed Brexit party flank, no? After May's flub on promises, I would suppose anybody sounding like they'll set and obey a red line on dates of exit gets the job.
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On June 19 2019 04:22 pmh wrote:
I am also flabbergasted. He will make a complete mess from the brexit and there is no way I can see it end well. But maybe that's the intention and parliament will still have the last vote.
The britisch economy wont be hurt all that much I think,as someone else said it mostly depends on (financial) services and being out of the eu would probably allow them to cut some regulations and scrap some rules,making them more attractive as well.
Scrapping all import tariffs,i wonder how that will work out. It must be quiet a large sum of income that the britisch government will lose,they will have to make up for that one way or the other. I can see the benefit as well,it will help keep inflation under control and if Britain leaves eu without deal I expect the bank of England to print quiet a bit of extra pounds which would put pressure on inflation. I am not sure its sound in the long run but who cares about that these days.
Remember right now its MP's voting, which is the group responsible for Brexit being the fragmented shitshow that it is.
These are the people that want a fall guy to be in charge when they cause a hard Brexit by failing to accept any actual proposal. That's why May was never voted out of power.
A Boris Johnson shitshow is exactly what they want.
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But how will that help when the red line will not pass parliament and the person elected is known in diplomatic circles as an idiot? Especially when the idiot is strongly disliked by the other side who he is supposed to negotiate with?
He did not accomplish a single thing when he was foreign secretary, except getting more international fame for being an utter idiot. The only thing he really is remembered for as a foreign secretary selling weapons to be used in Jemen.
Always a great idea using precious extension time for internal power struggle which will accomplish nothing.
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Think Gove won that debate, Boris survived but was pretty flaky and avoided answering nearly anything. Javid did alright too.
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On June 19 2019 04:50 Neneu wrote:
But how will that help when the red line will not pass parliament and the person elected is known in diplomatic circles as an idiot? Especially when the idiot is strongly disliked by the other side who he is supposed to negotiate with?
He did not accomplish a single thing when he was foreign secretary, except getting more international fame for being an utter idiot. The only thing he really is remembered for as a foreign secretary selling weapons to be used in Jemen.
Always a great idea using precious extension time for internal power struggle which will accomplish nothing. It was never going to accomplish anything.
The indicative votes showed that there is no majority for anything and the EU made it clear that it won't renegotiate a different deal.
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On June 19 2019 04:50 Neneu wrote:
But how will that help when the red line will not pass parliament and the person elected is known in diplomatic circles as an idiot? Especially when the idiot is strongly disliked by the other side who he is supposed to negotiate with?
He did not accomplish a single thing when he was foreign secretary, except getting more international fame for being an utter idiot. The only thing he really is remembered for as a foreign secretary selling weapons to be used in Jemen.
Always a great idea using precious extension time for internal power struggle which will accomplish nothing.
I gave an argument for why the hell Boris is doing so well, despite being a loon. The exposed Brexit Party challenge. Politicians want to continue to hold power. The split center-right, right, and left-Brexit-protest-vote evaporates the Tory base when the guy doesn't look like a fighter for the referendum result.
Stage 2, after trying a patch job on the base, is the deal-no deal, customs union, bad Euro deal debacle. I don't think the EU is ready to give a favorable deal, facing the rise of Euroskeptic parties other than from the UK. I don't think any politician is ready to pass on a bad deal and openly push for an exit without a deal. All signs point to a vocally Leave PM, and a later terrific failure to Leave.
(To be absolutely clear, I don't think even a skilled negotiator has a snowball's chance in hell of getting something attractive out of the EU, for the EU's own fears)
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Northern Ireland26771 Posts
On June 19 2019 05:41 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2019 04:50 Neneu wrote:
But how will that help when the red line will not pass parliament and the person elected is known in diplomatic circles as an idiot? Especially when the idiot is strongly disliked by the other side who he is supposed to negotiate with?
He did not accomplish a single thing when he was foreign secretary, except getting more international fame for being an utter idiot. The only thing he really is remembered for as a foreign secretary selling weapons to be used in Jemen.
Always a great idea using precious extension time for internal power struggle which will accomplish nothing. I gave an argument for why the hell Boris is doing so well, despite being a loon. The exposed Brexit Party challenge. Politicians want to continue to hold power. The split center-right, right, and left-Brexit-protest-vote evaporates the Tory base when the guy doesn't look like a fighter for the referendum result. Stage 2, after trying a patch job on the base, is the deal-no deal, customs union, bad Euro deal debacle. I don't think the EU is ready to give a favorable deal, facing the rise of Euroskeptic parties other than from the UK. I don't think any politician is ready to pass on a bad deal and openly push for an exit without a deal. All signs point to a vocally Leave PM, and a later terrific failure to Leave. (To be absolutely clear, I don't think even a skilled negotiator has a snowball's chance in hell of getting something attractive out of the EU, for the EU's own fears)
I agree with you largely here, really depends what ‘favourable’ deal means.
A skilled negotiator, in a less split parliament could get something perfectly palatable.
What no negotiator could get is a deal which is basically shedding all the bits of the EU we don’t like, and keep all the bits we do.
Which for some reason some people actually seemed to believe that was something we could have, for some reason.
Of course that wouldn’t happen, both for emboldening Euroskepticism across the continent, but it would also piss off people who are supporters of the European project too.
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On June 18 2019 21:07 Neneu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2019 20:18 iamthedave wrote:On June 17 2019 16:34 maybenexttime wrote:On June 17 2019 08:13 iamthedave wrote:On June 17 2019 02:43 m4ini wrote:
And people wonder why Brexiters get made fun of.
You're literally economically illiterate.
Here's a hint. What happens to british industries if they have to compete with slave labour countries, you can see in the steel industry. And this is by choice, the UK vetoed resolutions to tariff chinese steel.
If you don't tariff items, you have to compete with labour prices and regulations in other countries. Try competing with a chinese steel worker who works for £300 a month, under shittier circumstances.
And now do that for every industry in the UK. Let me know how that would work out. We don't have industries really. Britain has been a service economy for about a decade now. The real cost of Brexit depends on how much our lost access to Europe affects the value of the services we can offer. 19% of your GDP comes from the industry. The industry is also a major client of your services sector - finances, transportation, catering, etc. Your higher education system works closely with your industry, a lot of research output comes from industrial R&D projects. And services is 80%. They don't belong in the same discussion. Well if industry takes a 10% hit, you take a loss of about 2% GDP. And while it does not sound like a lot, quite a lot of people and communities will feel that 2% drop. However I am certain you could make a case for UK's dependence on traditional industry to be the cause of UK's wealth stagnation and one of the drivers for the increasing poverty in the last two decades. So maybe you should be happy to finally see it gone? I do however have doubts that UK government would have the will to invest into the retraining of the workers (even when it is economically beneficial in the long run), if it were to happen, and rather let communities rot and let them descend further into poverty.
No, I'm saying a drop in industrial GDP is basically a drop in the bucket compared to the catastrophe we'll be in if the Services economy - much of which grew because of our proximity to Europe - takes a hit.
The UK has primarily been of interest as a place to invest because we were the easiest staging point to get access to Europe due to our privileged position in the EU and historical relationships everywhere else. If people start moving to the slightly-less-but-still-much-better-than-the-UK option of Germany or France or whichever European country is most convenient after us we'll be devastated.
It's speculative of course, because it hasn't happened yet. Maybe we can pivot to just do different services, but the possibility of a serious hit is very high, very real, and could be crippling.
I'm from the NorthEast; the NE never recovered from the pits being closed down, it's still (mostly) a shithole and my home town basically consists of a shuttered front street and a Tesco that moved in and crushed all the local businesses in about six months last year.
If the equivalent of that happens to the Services industry we'll go into economic freefall.
And this is VERY possible. We just don't know which way the corporations are going to hop right now. We've already had warnings that investors are reconsidering things and quiet promises to pull operations out of the UK into the EU proper from here and there. People aren't talking about it because it's not a great talking point. It's all big numbers and economics and scary diagrams that people scream PROJECT FEAR at while thinking Boris Johnson can save us from the mess the floppy haired fuckwit helped create in the first place.
But it's as likely as not going to be the real story of Brexit.
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Northern Ireland26771 Posts
On June 19 2019 11:11 iamthedave wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2019 21:07 Neneu wrote:On June 18 2019 20:18 iamthedave wrote:On June 17 2019 16:34 maybenexttime wrote:On June 17 2019 08:13 iamthedave wrote:On June 17 2019 02:43 m4ini wrote:
And people wonder why Brexiters get made fun of.
You're literally economically illiterate.
Here's a hint. What happens to british industries if they have to compete with slave labour countries, you can see in the steel industry. And this is by choice, the UK vetoed resolutions to tariff chinese steel.
If you don't tariff items, you have to compete with labour prices and regulations in other countries. Try competing with a chinese steel worker who works for £300 a month, under shittier circumstances.
And now do that for every industry in the UK. Let me know how that would work out. We don't have industries really. Britain has been a service economy for about a decade now. The real cost of Brexit depends on how much our lost access to Europe affects the value of the services we can offer. 19% of your GDP comes from the industry. The industry is also a major client of your services sector - finances, transportation, catering, etc. Your higher education system works closely with your industry, a lot of research output comes from industrial R&D projects. And services is 80%. They don't belong in the same discussion. Well if industry takes a 10% hit, you take a loss of about 2% GDP. And while it does not sound like a lot, quite a lot of people and communities will feel that 2% drop. However I am certain you could make a case for UK's dependence on traditional industry to be the cause of UK's wealth stagnation and one of the drivers for the increasing poverty in the last two decades. So maybe you should be happy to finally see it gone? I do however have doubts that UK government would have the will to invest into the retraining of the workers (even when it is economically beneficial in the long run), if it were to happen, and rather let communities rot and let them descend further into poverty. No, I'm saying a drop in industrial GDP is basically a drop in the bucket compared to the catastrophe we'll be in if the Services economy - much of which grew because of our proximity to Europe - takes a hit. The UK has primarily been of interest as a place to invest because we were the easiest staging point to get access to Europe due to our privileged position in the EU and historical relationships everywhere else. If people start moving to the slightly-less-but-still-much-better-than-the-UK option of Germany or France or whichever European country is most convenient after us we'll be devastated. It's speculative of course, because it hasn't happened yet. Maybe we can pivot to just do different services, but the possibility of a serious hit is very high, very real, and could be crippling. I'm from the NorthEast; the NE never recovered from the pits being closed down, it's still (mostly) a shithole and my home town basically consists of a shuttered front street and a Tesco that moved in and crushed all the local businesses in about six months last year. If the equivalent of that happens to the Services industry we'll go into economic freefall. And this is VERY possible. We just don't know which way the corporations are going to hop right now. We've already had warnings that investors are reconsidering things and quiet promises to pull operations out of the UK into the EU proper from here and there. People aren't talking about it because it's not a great talking point. It's all big numbers and economics and scary diagrams that people scream PROJECT FEAR at while thinking Boris Johnson can save us from the mess the floppy haired fuckwit helped create in the first place. But it's as likely as not going to be the real story of Brexit.
Pesky people with their economic projections.
We don’t need to take much of an economic hit for the axe to swing into affecting people’s actual day-to-day lives, and that axe isn’t going to be primarily swinging the ‘elites’ way or the snooty middle classes way.
It’s been nigh on 4 years now I’ve been headbutting a wall on these topics and had ‘project fear’ thrown back at me by people who don’t actually know any of the practicalities of the EU or who characterise me as a remoaner or w/e.
We’re stuck in this preposterous situation where nobody can move due to the political climate, but we’re going to end up with a massive political disaster in the medium to long term if Brexit does go badly that is going to be many magnitudes worse than say having a second referendum.
My friends, probably me soon are all applying for Irish citizenship, even the real British identifying ones solely so we have the outlet valve of working down South, or in mainland Europe if shit hits the fan. We’re all pretty educated in fields like computer science that aren’t going away anytime soon.
Us Northern Irish have that option at least due to the Good Friday Agreement, what options do folks have in other areas like the North East have, considering the state of affairs is already not great?
My instinct is Brexit is going to hurt the very people who voted for it the most, if it does go badly, when they were sold that it would make things better for them. If the country is fragmented and fractious now, what’s that going to look like down the line?
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Finally Stewart is out of the race.
Gove is now only 3 points behind Hunt and likely to pick up more stewart votes.
Contest will in the end come down to if Boris stitches up the contest and lends votes to Hunt.
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Rightly or wrongly, the EU have taken a punitive approach to negotiations for a variety of reasons. The main one is that allowing the UK to leave with a mutually beneficial deal would only encourage other nations to follow suit.
I myself feel only two options remain for the UK to take, revoke article 50 and remain or depart on WTO terms and see where that leads (and predicting exactly where is impossible). No deal the EU are or will offer is acceptable at this point and would only compromise the UK in the economic recovery that will be needed.
Whether you like it or not, I hope that we respect the outcome of the referendum and leave.
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On June 20 2019 03:23 Aristodemus wrote:
Rightly or wrongly, the EU have taken a punitive approach to negotiations for a variety of reasons. The main one is that allowing the UK to leave with a mutually beneficial deal would only encourage other nations to follow suit.
I myself feel only two options remain for the UK to take, revoke article 50 and remain or depart on WTO terms and see where that leads (and predicting exactly where is impossible). No deal the EU are or will offer is acceptable at this point and would only compromise the UK in the economic recovery that will be needed.
Whether you like it or not, I hope that we respect the outcome of the referendum and leave.
Wait you think leaving with no deal is an option because a deal would compromise our economic recovery?
That doesn't make any sense to me.
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On June 20 2019 03:23 Aristodemus wrote:
Rightly or wrongly, the EU have taken a punitive approach to negotiations for a variety of reasons. The main one is that allowing the UK to leave with a mutually beneficial deal would only encourage other nations to follow suit.
I myself feel only two options remain for the UK to take, revoke article 50 and remain or depart on WTO terms and see where that leads (and predicting exactly where is impossible). No deal the EU are or will offer is acceptable at this point and would only compromise the UK in the economic recovery that will be needed.
Whether you like it or not, I hope that we respect the outcome of the referendum and leave.
Ah, the typical "The EU are the bad guys" take on things. The EU has constantly, from the beginning of all of this, been very clear about what can and can not be in the deal. Mainly, that the 4 freedoms are linked, and you can not pick and choose which of those you want.
The UK has not been able to accept that, and thus negotiations have been pretty pointless, because the UK was constantly living in unicornland where the thing the other party in the negotiation has been most clear about didn't exist, and where the UK is still the british empire and can dictate terms to anyone.
There are EU deals which are available, if the UK is willing to shift some of their positions. A norway-style deal for example. Or the May deal is still on the table. What the UK will not get is something that they would never have gotten, and which was clear from the beginning, namely the amazing deal that brexiteers assumed would somehow magically manifest that gave the UK everything it wants, while giving up nothing. That is not how negotiations work. This has nothing to do with "a punitive approach to negotiations".
The EU wants this stuff to go over in a reasonable way and with minimum problems, as can be seen by its willingness to constantly extend the deadlines to delay the brexit chaos. The UK is just not willing to see reality, and there does not seem to be any change in this for some reason.
So, i guess we will see a no deal brexit that you wish for, because the UK can not get a majority behind any of the actually really existing possibilities including revoking Art. 50, they can only get a majority behind the amazing deal that they imagine in their heads.
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First of all, I didn't say I wished for a no deal, I want us to respect the referendum result which I would regardless of the result. It's the will of the people. I also never said the EU were the bad guys.
Jock, what is the point of leaving the EU if you sign a deal that binds you to their rules with no say in any of it? That is why I said we either stay or leave, there is no compromise that can work in my mind.
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