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Since this is argued about in just about every discussion of polls I've seen; the sample size itself isn't really an issue. You can have reasonably predictive results with a few hundred voters (assuming your questions and sample are unbaised etc.).
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/04/11/buffett-rule-aka-reagan-rule .
For the first example, he... coined(?) the name Buffett Rule, he didn't claim to invent the concept like the article implied. I mean he's still name-dropping Reagan and pandering, but he's not dropping his name with Reagan or saying "I was smoking a joint with my roommate Reagan when I was like 'Dude, rich people should pay more taxes'. And he was like 'Fucking awesome idea man. I'll hold a press conference first thing tommorow afternoon. High five brah!' ".
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On May 16 2012 23:48 ManyCookies wrote:
Since this is argued about in just about every discussion of polls I've seen; the sample size itself isn't really an issue. You can have reasonably predictive results with a few hundred voters (assuming your questions and sample are unbaised etc.).
While this is true, I'm used to seeing polls with 1000-3000 people sampled. 600 from a well-designed sample is decent but below what I'd expect for a national poll on the presidency.
However I am more skeptical about the methods discussed a few posts earlier than the poll being essentially a half sample.
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On May 16 2012 10:04 xDaunt wrote:
You're missing the point. Obama won the female vote comfortably in 2008, and democrats have been hammering this "republican war on women" idea for months. If, despite all of that, Romney is up or tied with the female
vote, then Obama is in trouble.
This is totally on point though. Obama probably needs a 1-2 point better margin among women than Romney gets among men in order to win.
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Really? You're posting this? Come on man, they don't need encouragement.
The ONLY people who think this is going on and making a fuss are his supporters. There's no conspiracy, no coverup, no panicking. There's just really delusional people that don't want to believe Romney is more popular than their messiah.
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On May 16 2012 10:38 Defacer wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2012 07:02 xDaunt wrote:Yeah, I've been avoiding posting all of these polls that have been coming out recently because it is so early in the race, but, damn does it look bad for Obama right now. Democrats have been hammering this "republican war on women" garbage for months, and Romney still comes out ahead among women. Ouch. Meh, the Obama campaign is already debunking this poll as garbage. It's based on a tiny sample size of 600 people, that accepted a call back after answering a previous survey. It's hard to put stock in phone surveys without a massive sample size. Trust me, I've actually paid a firm to conduct phone surveys on a clients behalf. It's very easy to get someone to flip from one position to another, just by rephrasing a question or even the order of questions. For example, one of the questions was, "Do you think Pres. Obama Publicly Supported Same-Sex Marriage Because…" and the only options for, "Because he thinks it's right" and "For political reasons." It's easy to imagine someone believing both are true, or feeling that doing something for political reasons isn't necessarily more or less disingenuous. But yeah, I agree that's it's too early to take these kind of polls seriously.
No, the Obama campaign is trying to debunk the poll, wether they are successful or not is another question. Interestingly enough, the poll is sampled 35% Democrat, 27% Republican, 34% Independent and 5% Don't Know/Non-Applicable. If anything the poll is oversampled in the Democrats favor. If you look at the history you'll notice that trend in the NYT/CBS poll.
As for the question you referenced, they did track voluntary responses of "Both Equally" and it was 2%.
Either way, it's not like 67% vs 24% is even close. That's a huge margin. Whether or not admitting that he supported same-sex marrige I don't think really came as a big shock to anyone. They botched the handling of the issue and the Republicans have successfully portrayed it as being a political move. That the President the next day immediately went to a highly publicized fundraiser at Clooney's house didn't really help that perception either.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/05/15/us/politics/20120515-polling-docs.html
The number one question/answer in that poll that I think hurts the President the most is the question about which issue is the most important to the voter. 62% Economy and Jobs and 11% Federal Budget Deficit. If Romney can continue to make this about the economy he will keep this very close.
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Uh oh.
Breitbart News has obtained a promotional booklet produced in 1991 by Barack Obama's then-literary agency, Acton & Dystel, which touts Obama as "born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii."
The booklet, which was distributed to "business colleagues" in the publishing industry, includes a brief biography of Obama among the biographies of eighty-nine other authors represented by Acton & Dystel.
It also promotes Obama's anticipated first book, Journeys in Black and White--which Obama abandoned, later publishing Dreams from My Father instead.
Obama’s biography in the booklet is as follows (image and text below):
"Barack Obama, the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review, was born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii. The son of an American anthropologist and a Kenyan finance minister, he attended Columbia University and worked as a financial journalist and editor for Business International Corporation. He served as project coordinator in Harlem for the New York Public Interest Research Group, and was Executive Director of the Developing Communities Project in Chicago’s South Side. His commitment to social and racial issues will be evident in his first book, Journeys in Black and White."
Source.
I have never been a birther, and have never really given much credence to the birther debate. However, I've always wondered about the lack of candor and forthrightness from Obama on the issue, and this is definitely not going to be good for him.
EDIT: And just to be clear, I don't think that this is conclusive proof that Obama was born elsewhere. I think it's more likely to be more proof that Obama has a habit of misrepresenting his past.
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Maybe that hospital in Hawaii is nicknamed "Kenya."
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On May 18 2012 03:18 xDaunt wrote:Uh oh. Show nested quote +Breitbart News has obtained a promotional booklet produced in 1991 by Barack Obama's then-literary agency, Acton & Dystel, which touts Obama as "born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii."
The booklet, which was distributed to "business colleagues" in the publishing industry, includes a brief biography of Obama among the biographies of eighty-nine other authors represented by Acton & Dystel.
It also promotes Obama's anticipated first book, Journeys in Black and White--which Obama abandoned, later publishing Dreams from My Father instead.
Obama’s biography in the booklet is as follows (image and text below):
"Barack Obama, the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review, was born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii. The son of an American anthropologist and a Kenyan finance minister, he attended Columbia University and worked as a financial journalist and editor for Business International Corporation. He served as project coordinator in Harlem for the New York Public Interest Research Group, and was Executive Director of the Developing Communities Project in Chicago’s South Side. His commitment to social and racial issues will be evident in his first book, Journeys in Black and White." Source.I have never been a birther, and have never really given much credence to the birther debate. However, I've always wondered about the lack of candor and forthrightness from Obama on the issue, and this is definitely not going to be good for him. EDIT: And just to be clear, I don't think that this is conclusive proof that Obama was born elsewhere. I think it's more likely to be more proof that Obama has a habit of misrepresenting his past.
Well, while this is admittedly intriguing, I've always discounted the allegations that Obama was born from another country, simply because it would be simply insane or ridiculous for a person or political party to try to cover it up so they run for president.
Although I think automatically disqualifying someone from being president, just because they weren't born in America, is kind of antiquated and silly, it's an obvious, clear-cut requirement that people learn in grade school.
But hey, crazier shit has happened.
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On May 18 2012 03:30 Defacer wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 03:18 xDaunt wrote:Uh oh. Breitbart News has obtained a promotional booklet produced in 1991 by Barack Obama's then-literary agency, Acton & Dystel, which touts Obama as "born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii."
The booklet, which was distributed to "business colleagues" in the publishing industry, includes a brief biography of Obama among the biographies of eighty-nine other authors represented by Acton & Dystel.
It also promotes Obama's anticipated first book, Journeys in Black and White--which Obama abandoned, later publishing Dreams from My Father instead.
Obama’s biography in the booklet is as follows (image and text below):
"Barack Obama, the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review, was born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii. The son of an American anthropologist and a Kenyan finance minister, he attended Columbia University and worked as a financial journalist and editor for Business International Corporation. He served as project coordinator in Harlem for the New York Public Interest Research Group, and was Executive Director of the Developing Communities Project in Chicago’s South Side. His commitment to social and racial issues will be evident in his first book, Journeys in Black and White." Source.I have never been a birther, and have never really given much credence to the birther debate. However, I've always wondered about the lack of candor and forthrightness from Obama on the issue, and this is definitely not going to be good for him. EDIT: And just to be clear, I don't think that this is conclusive proof that Obama was born elsewhere. I think it's more likely to be more proof that Obama has a habit of misrepresenting his past. Well, while this is admittedly intriguing, I've always discounted the allegations that Obama was born from another country, simply because it would be simply insane or ridiculous for a person or political party to try to cover it up so they run for president. Although I think automatically disqualifying someone from being president, just because they weren't born in America, is kind of antiquated and silly, it's an obvious, clear-cut requirement that people learn in grade school. But hey, crazier shit has happened.
Yeah, it's crazy until you think about the ramifications of a court saying that the Constitution doesn't matter.
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On May 18 2012 03:31 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 03:30 Defacer wrote:On May 18 2012 03:18 xDaunt wrote:Uh oh. Breitbart News has obtained a promotional booklet produced in 1991 by Barack Obama's then-literary agency, Acton & Dystel, which touts Obama as "born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii."
The booklet, which was distributed to "business colleagues" in the publishing industry, includes a brief biography of Obama among the biographies of eighty-nine other authors represented by Acton & Dystel.
It also promotes Obama's anticipated first book, Journeys in Black and White--which Obama abandoned, later publishing Dreams from My Father instead.
Obama’s biography in the booklet is as follows (image and text below):
"Barack Obama, the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review, was born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii. The son of an American anthropologist and a Kenyan finance minister, he attended Columbia University and worked as a financial journalist and editor for Business International Corporation. He served as project coordinator in Harlem for the New York Public Interest Research Group, and was Executive Director of the Developing Communities Project in Chicago’s South Side. His commitment to social and racial issues will be evident in his first book, Journeys in Black and White." Source.I have never been a birther, and have never really given much credence to the birther debate. However, I've always wondered about the lack of candor and forthrightness from Obama on the issue, and this is definitely not going to be good for him. EDIT: And just to be clear, I don't think that this is conclusive proof that Obama was born elsewhere. I think it's more likely to be more proof that Obama has a habit of misrepresenting his past. Well, while this is admittedly intriguing, I've always discounted the allegations that Obama was born from another country, simply because it would be simply insane or ridiculous for a person or political party to try to cover it up so they run for president. Although I think automatically disqualifying someone from being president, just because they weren't born in America, is kind of antiquated and silly, it's an obvious, clear-cut requirement that people learn in grade school. But hey, crazier shit has happened. Yeah, it's crazy until you think about the ramifications of a court saying that the Constitution doesn't matter.
Just to clarify, I meant, "crazier things in politics have happened." Remember when Herman Cain was the frontrunner until it turned out he has a philandering man-whore? LOL.
I don't think the constitution is crazy.
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On April 19 2012 18:24 murphs wrote:
Dear America,
Vote Obama.
Sincerely,
Rest of the fucking world.
Why?
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On May 18 2012 04:00 Remfire wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2012 18:24 murphs wrote:
Dear America,
Vote Obama.
Sincerely,
Rest of the fucking world. Why?
Because the other candidates are worse.
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"I stand by what I said, whatever it was."
Brilliant. No wonder Romney doesn't like talking to the Press.
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On May 18 2012 03:18 xDaunt wrote:Uh oh. Show nested quote +Breitbart News has obtained a promotional booklet produced in 1991 by Barack Obama's then-literary agency, Acton & Dystel, which touts Obama as "born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii."
The booklet, which was distributed to "business colleagues" in the publishing industry, includes a brief biography of Obama among the biographies of eighty-nine other authors represented by Acton & Dystel.
It also promotes Obama's anticipated first book, Journeys in Black and White--which Obama abandoned, later publishing Dreams from My Father instead.
Obama’s biography in the booklet is as follows (image and text below):
"Barack Obama, the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review, was born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii. The son of an American anthropologist and a Kenyan finance minister, he attended Columbia University and worked as a financial journalist and editor for Business International Corporation. He served as project coordinator in Harlem for the New York Public Interest Research Group, and was Executive Director of the Developing Communities Project in Chicago’s South Side. His commitment to social and racial issues will be evident in his first book, Journeys in Black and White." Source.I have never been a birther, and have never really given much credence to the birther debate. However, I've always wondered about the lack of candor and forthrightness from Obama on the issue, and this is definitely not going to be good for him. EDIT: And just to be clear, I don't think that this is conclusive proof that Obama was born elsewhere. I think it's more likely to be more proof that Obama has a habit of misrepresenting his past.
Ok, let's look at what you just said.
1. "I don't think that this is conclusive proof that Obama was born elsewhere".
2. "I've always wondered about the lack of candor and forthrightness from Obama on the issue"
3. "it's more likely to be more proof that Obama has a habit of misrepresenting his past".
1. Of course it's not conclusive proof he was born elsewhere, since he was born in the United States - as attested by the birth certificates (short and long versions) that have been shown to the public. There is no debate here, unless you're not interested in confronting reality.
2. Lack of candor and forthrightness? He's said from day one he was born in the United States. He shouldn't have had to spend more than fifteen seconds of his life on the issue, and yet he went as far as publishing his long-form birth certificate because idiots from the right (Trump in particular) could not give it a rest. Instead of wondering about this imaginary "lack of candor and forthrightness", you should be wondering about the reasons why some people refuse to accept what has been factually established as the truth.
3. This is a particularly disingenuous statement. Either the information contained in that booklet is true or it isn't. If it was true, then Obama would not have "misrepresented" his past, he would have lied about it by saying he was born in the US. We know the information is false, however, since he was born in the US. This leaves only the second option, which is that the information is false. Now, how the hell is that booklet getting his birthplace wrong "more proof" (or "likely to be more proof") that Obama tends to misrepresent his past? What on Earth does it have to do with Obama misrepresenting his past, unless you're telling me he told Acton & Dystel he was born in Kenya? And where exactly would you be getting this information from?
To go back to the topic itself, I don't know whether to laugh or cry at how badly some conspiracy theorists (and some Republicans) are in denial. Let's imagine for a second that Obama wasn't president and that official documents certified he was born in Kenya. Would a booklet with a short biography of himself along with 89 other authors containing the sentence "Obama was born in the United States" suddenly lead the same people to declare "SEE IT'S PROOF HE WAS BORN IN THE US"? I don't think so. It's quite pathetic that they just can't accept this for what it is, namely a simple error that weighs absolutely NOTHING in the face of the official documents that prove he was born in the US.
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I think it's relevant to post the editor's note that appears on the top of that news story from Breitbart:
Note from Senior Management:
Andrew Breitbart was never a "Birther," and Breitbart News is a site that has never advocated the narrative of "Birtherism." In fact, Andrew believed, as we do, that President Barack Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii, on August 4, 1961.
Yet Andrew also believed that the complicit mainstream media had refused to examine President Obama's ideological past, or the carefully crafted persona he and his advisers had constructed for him.
It is for that reason that we launched "The Vetting," an ongoing series in which we explore the ideological background of President Obama (and other presidential candidates)--not to re-litigate 2008, but because ideas and actions have consequences.
It is also in that spirit that we discovered, and now present, the booklet described below--one that includes a marketing pitch for a forthcoming book by a then-young, otherwise unknown former president of the Harvard Law Review.
It is evidence--not of the President's foreign origin, but that Barack Obama's public persona has perhaps been presented differently at different times.
Brietbart staff are not arguing it's proof of anything, rather they're saying it's yet another example of how little digging the mainstream media did into Obama's past during the 2008 election. Something that would seem to have a lot of creedence, given that the fact that Obama wrote about eating dog was announced as rather big news last month--even though he wrote it in his book released 17 years ago.
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On May 18 2012 06:10 TheToast wrote:I think it's relevant to post the editor's note that appears on the top of that news story from Breitbart: Show nested quote +Note from Senior Management:
Andrew Breitbart was never a "Birther," and Breitbart News is a site that has never advocated the narrative of "Birtherism." In fact, Andrew believed, as we do, that President Barack Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii, on August 4, 1961.
Yet Andrew also believed that the complicit mainstream media had refused to examine President Obama's ideological past, or the carefully crafted persona he and his advisers had constructed for him.
It is for that reason that we launched "The Vetting," an ongoing series in which we explore the ideological background of President Obama (and other presidential candidates)--not to re-litigate 2008, but because ideas and actions have consequences.
It is also in that spirit that we discovered, and now present, the booklet described below--one that includes a marketing pitch for a forthcoming book by a then-young, otherwise unknown former president of the Harvard Law Review.
It is evidence--not of the President's foreign origin, but that Barack Obama's public persona has perhaps been presented differently at different times. Brietbart staff are not arguing it's proof of anything, rather they're saying it's yet another example of how little digging the mainstream media did into Obama's past during the 2008 election. Something that would seem to have a lot of creedence, given that the fact that Obama wrote about eating dog was announced as rather big news last month--even though he wrote it in his book released 17 years ago.
They write it "is evidence [...] that Barack Obama's public persona has perhaps been presented differently at different times". How is that the case? The publishing company made a mistake for the birthplace of one of the ninety authors presented in a small booklet. There's a chance they got the birth date wrong for at least one of the other authors, would that be "evidence that the public persona of author X has been presented differently at different times"?
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Update from the man that wrote the bio:
Literary Agent Says 1991 Booklet was a Mistake
Breitbart News reports on a promotional booklet produced in 1991 by Barack Obama's then-literary agency which describes the author as "born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii."
Miriam Goderich issued the following statement to Political Wire:
"You're undoubtedly aware of the brouhaha stirred up by Breitbart about the erroneous statement in a client list Acton & Dystel published in 1991 (for circulation within the publishing industry only) that Barack Obama was born in Kenya. This was nothing more than a fact checking error by me -- an agency assistant at the time. There was never any information given to us by Obama in any of his correspondence or other communications suggesting in any way that he was born in Kenya and not Hawaii. I hope you can communicate to your readers that this was a simple mistake and nothing more."
Full disclosure: I am a client of the same literary agency.
What's more likely? That state-issued birth certificates and passports have been forged, Secret Service background checks have failed, the entire news media is in Obama's pocket, and not a single credible witness or account has come forward to verify Obama's birth in Kenya?
Or a junior/low-level assistant had a deadline and wrote a half-assed bio one afternoon?
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On May 18 2012 03:34 Defacer wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 03:31 xDaunt wrote:On May 18 2012 03:30 Defacer wrote:On May 18 2012 03:18 xDaunt wrote:Uh oh. Breitbart News has obtained a promotional booklet produced in 1991 by Barack Obama's then-literary agency, Acton & Dystel, which touts Obama as "born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii."
The booklet, which was distributed to "business colleagues" in the publishing industry, includes a brief biography of Obama among the biographies of eighty-nine other authors represented by Acton & Dystel.
It also promotes Obama's anticipated first book, Journeys in Black and White--which Obama abandoned, later publishing Dreams from My Father instead.
Obama’s biography in the booklet is as follows (image and text below):
"Barack Obama, the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review, was born in Kenya and raised in Indonesia and Hawaii. The son of an American anthropologist and a Kenyan finance minister, he attended Columbia University and worked as a financial journalist and editor for Business International Corporation. He served as project coordinator in Harlem for the New York Public Interest Research Group, and was Executive Director of the Developing Communities Project in Chicago’s South Side. His commitment to social and racial issues will be evident in his first book, Journeys in Black and White." Source.I have never been a birther, and have never really given much credence to the birther debate. However, I've always wondered about the lack of candor and forthrightness from Obama on the issue, and this is definitely not going to be good for him. EDIT: And just to be clear, I don't think that this is conclusive proof that Obama was born elsewhere. I think it's more likely to be more proof that Obama has a habit of misrepresenting his past. Well, while this is admittedly intriguing, I've always discounted the allegations that Obama was born from another country, simply because it would be simply insane or ridiculous for a person or political party to try to cover it up so they run for president. Although I think automatically disqualifying someone from being president, just because they weren't born in America, is kind of antiquated and silly, it's an obvious, clear-cut requirement that people learn in grade school. But hey, crazier shit has happened. Yeah, it's crazy until you think about the ramifications of a court saying that the Constitution doesn't matter. Just to clarify, I meant, "crazier things in politics have happened." Remember when Herman Cain was the frontrunner until it turned out he has a philandering man-whore? LOL. I don't think the constitution is crazy.
Quite frankly, when I read that clause, I assume anyone that was granted citizenship by birth is qualified to be President. Since his mother was a citizen, what's the complaint?
Is there an allegation that he's not even a citizen? 8 USC 1401(g) seems pretty clear that he's a US citizen by birth. Therefore a "natural born citizen".
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EPT
