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On March 13 2005 20:22 MoltkeWarding wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2005 20:15 HnR)hT wrote:
I've said it before. China will be the dominant world superpower of the 21st century, and possibly well beyond. The growth and spread of Chinese hegemony has not even begun. If it hasn't begun, why are you predicting it? Geopolitically speaking Russia looked more imposing a hundred years ago than China today, and Russia never became a hegemonious power. China lacks the intellectual, cultural and moral prestiege which have been paramount to Germany, France, England or the United States' claims to fame. Don't confuse the trends of the present for long term consequences, as the myopic are wont to do. Presently China is following the world, she leads the way in nothing. China is a breeding ground of imitators along western models of success, at which they excell. Whether anything which is generated from China herself will ever reach such an internationally prestigious status has yet to be proven. Furthermore the concept of superpowerdom is a consequence of 1945, a mentality the internal-minded Chinese are not for the present interested in.
And the rubbish you sprout gets even worse. Russia at the start of the 20th century was imploding. The crimean war, ruso-japanese naval exchange coupled with internal unrest led to Russia's destablization and later collapse. I won't even bother with the rest of your points.
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United States33560 Posts
On March 13 2005 19:01 KH1031 wrote:
Communists=barbarians
they don't talk, just do what they want
-_-
and for the record, I am from Taiwan.
I'd like to point out that drone is a communist, for everyone's information
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Well, cba to read what anyone of you have said but what ever. =)
Anyway, it's totally understable why China is doing this, if you don't understand think about it from their point of view. What if one of your countrys cities wanted to form their own nation? I bet you wouldn't allow it, Taiwan is a little bit different of course. And I also understand Taiwans point of view, it's a fucking hard situation "heh".
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saw it today on the news, but since i hardly know eastern asia politics i cant comment on it
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Baltimore, USA22259 Posts
On March 14 2005 04:34 drc wrote:
Well, cba to read what anyone of you have said but what ever. =)
Anyway, it's totally understable why China is doing this, if you don't understand think about it from their point of view. What if one of your countrys cities wanted to form their own nation? I bet you wouldn't allow it, Taiwan is a little bit different of course. And I also understand Taiwans point of view, it's a fucking hard situation "heh".
Well, that would be one thing if they suddenly wanted to break off, but Taiwan has been basically independent for a long time now, and I really really don't think the citizens either consider themselves Chinese nor are looking forward to it.
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On March 13 2005 20:54 HnR)hT wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2005 20:22 MoltkeWarding wrote:On March 13 2005 20:15 HnR)hT wrote:
I\'ve said it before. China will be the dominant world superpower of the 21st century, and possibly well beyond. The growth and spread of Chinese hegemony has not even begun. If it hasn\'t begun, why are you predicting it? Because China has the raw production manpower, a substantial and rising global economic influence, one of the most efficient systems of education in the world, and an ethnic and cultural oneness which reinforces a sense of duty and kinship for all Chinese at home and abroad. That the USA is in crushing national debt, a large part of which is to China, doesn\'t help matters much. Show nested quote + Geopolitically speaking Russia looked more imposing a hundred years ago than China today, and Russia never became a hegemonious power. First, how do you arrive at the conclusion that Russia was more imposing 100 years ago than China is now? Second, not considering the USSR a \"hegemonious power\" is absurd. Show nested quote +China lacks the intellectual, cultural and moral prestiege which have been paramount to Germany, France, England or the United States\' claims to fame. I\'m not entirely sure what you mean by this. Show nested quote +Don\'t confuse the trends of the present for long term consequences, as the myopic are wont to do. Presently China is following the world, she leads the way in nothing. China is a breeding ground of imitators along western models of success, at which they excell. That\'s ridiculous. Show nested quote +Whether anything which is generated from China herself will ever reach such an internationally prestigious status has yet to be proven. Furthermore the concept of superpowerdom is a consequence of 1945, a mentality the internal-minded Chinese are not for the present interested in. Indeed, China has been biding its time for several millenia, and waiting a few hundred years is nothing on this scale. Nevertheless I believe the current geopolitical and technological state of the world looks increasingly opportune for China\'s ascendancy. edit: fucked up with the quote brackets
First, how do you arrive at the conclusion that Russia was more imposing 100 years ago than China is now?
For several reasons. Because manpower mattered alot more a hundred years ago than it does today. A hundred years ago Russia possessed the fastest growing population among the powers in the great power system, triple that of the second greatest power in that system. She possessed a flanking position on Europe which proved to be a geopolitical advantage, in the early 19th century Napoleon and Tocqueville both saw Russia as becoming one of the two dominant powers of the world in the future, in the 20th century every geopolitical theorist, believing in the future dominance of a two or three superpower system included Russia among them, the only other serious candidates being America, Britain and Germany. It is not an exaggeration to say this fear (whether real or unreal) of growing Russian power had much to do with the outbreak of both World Wars, in fear that Russia would one day attain the same level of development as the west backed by superior resources and manpower. This never happened, even though Russia in 1900 was far closer to the West than China is today.
Because China has the raw production manpower, a substantial and rising global economic influence, one of the most efficient systems of education in the world, and an ethnic and cultural oneness which reinforces a sense of duty and kinship for all Chinese at home and abroad.
None of which become convincing that she will become the hegemonic power of the age. In terms of growth Japan was more impressive in the 20s-30s. The Chinese education system as I said, encourages conformity at the expense of creative thinking. There is absolutely no room for intellectual freedom which in the long run retards rather nourishes the mind. Efficiency in education says it all, where quality is lacking, how can we boast of education? Chinese nationalism really has nothing to do with the kind of expansive nationalism of the west, nor is it a thing to be boasted about among what is essentially a politically retarded people.
Second, not considering the USSR a \"hegemonious power\" is absurd.
The USSR was at best number two, a status affoarded it by the condition that every other great power was temporarily wiped out. The USSR even within its own sphere was far from hegemonious. The suppression of the 1956 Hungarian revolt we know today would not have occurred had it not be Moscow\'s understanding the Washington would not interfere. The USSR anyhow, had been in retreat since the beginning, abandoning Austria, Finland, Yugoslavia and Albania, gradually tolerating what became a hostile government in Romania, abandoning North Korea to the Chinese sphere of influence, losing China in the 60s. There is something pitiable about a hegemonious power which allows rivals to establish their armed forces on one\'s southern borders- thousands of miles away from their coasts and only hundreds away from your own cities.
I\'m not entirely sure what you mean by this. I mean throughout the modern age, certain cultures possessed the prestige which was admired and imitated by all others around the globe. French fashions, architecture, language, philosophy, literature, forms of coversation and modes of thought became imitated from Russia to America (as late as the early 20th century there was a class of people on the eastern seaboard who adhered to these tastes). As I see it, no one here attempts to imitate Chinese modes of thought. No one travels to Beijing to listen to Chinese opera, talk with the Chinese Voltaire or taste Chinese high society. The number of Chinese who emigrate to North America is numerous, no one here seeks out a better life in China, etc. Now you might argue that power and prestige are two different things. What they don\'t realize is the power is a thing just as intangible and incorporeal as prestige. Power itself becomes a perception, and it is a regret that people in the West often want to see Chinese power in the context of their own great power experiences, while the Chinese are not much concerned about comparing their relative status to the rest of the world. China in her foreign policy behaves in no way like a great power, even an upcoming one. In global opinion they have less voice than Israel, Spain or Mexico. A large part of American power is evidenced by the fact that they are imitated and respected around the world (although less and less, a consequence of disastrous foreign policy by those with the mentality that dominant power should be taken for granted).
I am not much concerned about Chinese technological or economic backwardness, although they do exist. It is their intellectual and social backwardness which will be decisive in establishing whether that oriental race becomes a great nation of its own right, or simply an imitation trailing the West.
That\'s ridiculous. Which statement would you like to contest? Do you deny that China is imitating the West, which is the why she is experiencing what you hail as her economic boom, or that Chinese things are not emulated by the West at all?
Indeed, China has been biding its time for several millenia, and waiting a few hundred years is nothing on this scale. Nevertheless I believe the current geopolitical and technological state of the world looks increasingly opportune for China\'s ascendancy.
To bide its time suggests patience in anticipation of an ultimate goal. Unfortunately for most of her modern history China has been cut apart and humiliated by foreign powers, and far from the sleeping giant, revealed in the 19th century to be the greatest decaying landmass on the planet. Chinese economic and technological growth have existed for decades, not millenia. There is absolutely no reason to expect that Chinese aspirations will ever flow beyond her own borders, nor should we encourage such an expectation.
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[QUOTE]On March 13 2005 23:00 Sharkey wrote:
[QUOTE]On March 13 2005 20:22 MoltkeWarding wrote:
[QUOTE]On March 13 2005 20:15 HnR)hT wrote:
I've said it before. China will be the dominant world superpower of the 21st century, and possibly well beyond. The growth and spread of Chinese hegemony has not even begun.[/QUOTE]
Geopolitically speaking Russia looked more imposing a hundred years ago than China today, and Russia never became a hegemonious power.
100 years ago Russia lost to Japan. Bloody Sunday, etc. Russia, seemed, to be losing its influence in European affiars and 'sinking' back into more Asian affiars. Sure nations feared Russia out of its potential. Great land mass and millions in population. But I think most European diplomats saw how russia was becoming less and less of a player as time went on. They got humilated in the Crimean War (1856) and they were the first European Power to lose a war to a non-European Power in a long, long time. The Great Reforms of Alexander II era all failed except emancipation, which was a failure anyways. Russia basically could not keep up economically or industrially with the West.[/QUOTE]
My point was that it was the potential, rather than her actual power that they feared, wrongly. Bismarck wisely warned that Russia is neither as weak nor as strong as she seems. Russia incidentally was the second European power to lose a war against a non-European power in the late modern age, the first being Italy to Abyssinia, but even then, Japan (unlike say Germany) could not hope to defeat Russia, she could only do so regionally. It's true by the mid-century Russia suffered an appalling nadir in her international power since 1815, but toward the end of the century Russia's industrial growth became one of the most dynamic in Europe, which bred fears among strategic thinkers in Germany that it was better to go to war with Russia sooner than later (true both in 1914 and 1941). Industrially the Russian empire was on about the same footing as France, even though she depended on French credit. Her real retardation was the lack of education, illiteracy and social backwardness which put a cap to her potentials, a problem far more imposing than playing catchup with the west industrially. I am not arguing to exaggerate Russian power, but how her potential power became an undue fear among Europeans in the long run.
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On March 14 2005 02:04 yeehaw wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2005 19:05 MoltkeWarding wrote:On March 13 2005 19:01 KH1031 wrote:
Communists=barbarians
they don't talk, just do what they want
-_-
and for the record, I am from Taiwan. Nationalists = inefficient evil empire of power hungry warlords who double dealt with the Japanese to wipe the heroic communist resistance out. We can start spewing idiotic propaganda back and forth all day. Really, it would be a pleasant surprise some day to see someone from over there who bothers to think for themselves regarding politics. And you are an idiot. The Nationalists are not ruling Taiwan now.
...and when did I claim they were? Really, if you can't understand something it's better not to reply.
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On March 14 2005 02:07 yeehaw wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2005 20:22 MoltkeWarding wrote:On March 13 2005 20:15 HnR)hT wrote:
I've said it before. China will be the dominant world superpower of the 21st century, and possibly well beyond. The growth and spread of Chinese hegemony has not even begun. If it hasn't begun, why are you predicting it? Geopolitically speaking Russia looked more imposing a hundred years ago than China today, and Russia never became a hegemonious power. China lacks the intellectual, cultural and moral prestiege which have been paramount to Germany, France, England or the United States' claims to fame. Don't confuse the trends of the present for long term consequences, as the myopic are wont to do. Presently China is following the world, she leads the way in nothing. China is a breeding ground of imitators along western models of success, at which they excell. Whether anything which is generated from China herself will ever reach such an internationally prestigious status has yet to be proven. Furthermore the concept of superpowerdom is a consequence of 1945, a mentality the internal-minded Chinese are not for the present interested in. And the rubbish you sprout gets even worse. Russia at the start of the 20th century was imploding. The crimean war, ruso-japanese naval exchange coupled with internal unrest led to Russia's destablization and later collapse. I won't even bother with the rest of your points.
And again, the illiteracy you demonstrate is appalling. I have never been arguing that Russia, retrospectively was in a dominant position 100 years ago. Unfortunately you are talking about the consequences to events which have not yet occurred in 1905. I am talking about peoples' inabilities to see the future based on present trends, the cultivation of which often conjurs collective illusions about a certain country. Did any foreign observer in 1900 believe that the Russian empire was going to collapse in 20 years? Please do not try to bash what is only one side of a bigger argument, when you just help in proving my point.
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On March 13 2005 23:08 insaneknights wrote:Chinas being a real dick to the U.S economy and many of the neighboring asian countires also. Many other countires have also asked china to reform their currency, but china has refused. Due to large export and imports from china the yuan has been in high demand. The yuan should appreciate but its not. China pegs the yuan to the dollar at a fixed rate. To keep it the same rate China buys other countires money. Recent rumors says that U.S economists are extremly scared that China will release their bought U.S money back into the U.S, which will cause major inflation. News ArticleA quick google search can tell the full effect of Chians currency problems. ARgg i hate China. Im from Taiwan
Japan pegs it currency to the USD as well. I'm sure there are many countries that do this as well. Why do you single out China? Both China and Japan have large amounts of bought USD. Again, I'm sure many other countries do too.
If China were to release their stashes of USD and convert to euro, the impact on the US economy would be catastrophic, if they wanted to be dicks, they would do that and fuck the US over.
Economically speaking, China is much more of a powerhouse than Taiwan. In the event of the war I find it hard to believe the US would commit large amounts of troops in an all out war with China, considering China already has nukes. Anyways, I believe the fact that China possesses so much in USD will be a deterrent for the USA in the event of a war between China and Taiwan.
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Keep in mind, almost half of the population of Taiwan discourages the separation.
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On March 14 2005 08:53 0_0 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2005 23:08 insaneknights wrote:Chinas being a real dick to the U.S economy and many of the neighboring asian countires also. Many other countires have also asked china to reform their currency, but china has refused. Due to large export and imports from china the yuan has been in high demand. The yuan should appreciate but its not. China pegs the yuan to the dollar at a fixed rate. To keep it the same rate China buys other countires money. Recent rumors says that U.S economists are extremly scared that China will release their bought U.S money back into the U.S, which will cause major inflation. News ArticleA quick google search can tell the full effect of Chians currency problems. ARgg i hate China. Im from Taiwan Japan pegs it currency to the USD as well. I'm sure there are many countries that do this as well. Why do you single out China? Both China and Japan have large amounts of bought USD. Again, I'm sure many other countries do too. If China were to release their stashes of USD and convert to euro, the impact on the US economy would be catastrophic, if they wanted to be dicks, they would do that and fuck the US over. Economically speaking, China is much more of a powerhouse than Taiwan. In the event of the war I find it hard to believe the US would commit large amounts of troops in an all out war with China, considering China already has nukes. Anyways, I believe the fact that China possesses so much in USD will be a deterrent for the USA in the event of a war between China and Taiwan.
The chance of a serious war between China and the USA is slim to none. Though the USA certainly will aid Taiwan if neccesary, but to what extent is unkown.
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I have no problem of Taiwan being independent as long as it is not being used by US and Japan as a tool and a base to limit China's development.
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On March 14 2005 09:14 FeelTheMoment wrote:
I have no problem of Taiwan being independent as long as it is not being used by US and Japan as a tool and a base to limit China's development.
That's an oximoron. The reason for the US to invest a large amount of resources in Taiwan is so that they can limit China through Taiwan. It has stuff to do with the control of the seaway or w/e and I can't be any more detailed than that because I don't know the geography.
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If and when China becomes the dominant global superpower, all those pseudo-intellectuals who bitch and moan about the current US monopoly will know what oppression really means.
I know I don't wanna live in a world dominated by a superpower without any Western background.
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My 2 Cents:
Taiwan should just keep things the way they are for now because the US is having enough trouble with its war in Iraq and generally trying to police the world... People may say that China cannot beat the US, but it's simply not true. Granted, China will never be able to invade US soil (unless something drastic happens in terms of the balance of world power...), but I doubt the US will be able to do much to stop any full scale Chinese assault on Taiwan.
As for predictions that China will become a vast superpower in the 21st Century. I highly doubt it... Yes, China has a huge population and economic potential, but potential is pretty much where it's been remaining thusfar. The Chinese have yet to prove any ability to realize their full potential. If anything I believe they'll be able to become a great economic power, but I highly doubt that will translate over to military might, which is something I believe a true "superpower" must have. China's military is simply outdated and with the way money has been allocated up until this point, I doubt China will be anything more than 4 steps behind the US in terms of applicable military technology. Of course, one can always argue brute force since I'm more than sure China has enough ICBM's to overwhelm any sort of defense the US has, but that works both ways. There won't be any major power struggles of that sort in the 21st century because it would lead to the destruction of the human race... I think the EU will eventually rise up to be a superpower greater than China will ever be...
I think the balance of power is pretty nice at the moment. Granted, the US attempts to police the world, but it's not as if no other country can check the US's actions. China is certainly one nation that can do so economically and militarily (espeically with the US's thinned military). Though I hate to admit it since I live in the country, I think the US has certainly passed its prime as a world power. It seems that we're going the way of the ancient Roman Empire.
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On March 13 2005 19:01 KH1031 wrote:
Communists=barbarians
they don't talk, just do what they want
-_-
and for the record, I am from Taiwan.
there have never been communists (per definition) in any government, there are/have been maoists, stalinists, leninnists, "cheists", "castroists"... as you can only be a real communist, if you have a world-view and nothing country or person oriented...
apart from that, people with predjudices based on half-wisdom lack intelligence...
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On March 14 2005 08:59 Cambium wrote:
Keep in mind, almost half of the population of Taiwan discourages the separation.
I don't think that's the point of the argument here.
The point is the Taiwanese people's freedom to choose what they want is being infringed by laws that has been passed by another regime.
Fact: Taiwan and China parted their ways ever since 1949, each had their own regime and functions as two seperate nations.
Simply because Taiwan is not formally recognized today does not mean that Taiwan is subject to Chinese rule.
I am personally again the independence of Taiwan, yet I do not agree with the approach the communist China took.
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Gotta love people pointing out that there never was a "real" communist government and acting like they hold the intellectual high-ground because they've come to realize that.
Hey wise guys, maybe it never happened because it can't happen ? Maybe that Marx guy should have read Machiavelli and realized that people have selfish egos no matter how hard you want that not to be true ?
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EPT
