On August 28 2016 20:57 bardtown wrote: Turkey joins in to kill/torture Kurds under the pretense of attacking ISIS. US capitulates and betrays Kurds. Turkey is no longer a friend. Kurds are no longer friends. Fantastic work. Expect terrorism from a bunch more sources.
Its not as simple as that.
I talked about this earlier in the thread:
'The reason why the Kurds have never had their own independent country is because they are one of the easiest people to turn on each other because of tribal stupidity. They have spent a millennium fighting each other over foreign interests and now when they are the closest have have been to national independence in a very very long time what do they do?
One large group hates Turks One large group works with Turks One large group wants to kick all non-Kurds out One large group works with Assad against terrorists'
And we get to the actions of the YPG last week, attacking the SAA garrison at Hasakah was so stupid and against Kurdish interests in the long run that you have to wonder what the hell they were thinking or who told them to do that. While the Assad government in Damascus is officially complaining about the Turkish invasion behind closed doors he is all smiles that his enemies are weakening each other.
Make no mistake, this operation would not have gone ahead without the green lights from Russia and the US. After the coup attempt in Turkey Erdogan has basically built all his bridges back with Russia and has shifted into a 'i love secularism' policy. Turkish planes have started going into Syria for the first time since the SU-25 was shot down which is a clear sign that Putin has given his blessing. And whatever Russia says, the Syrian government will go along with it.
Long story short, the YPG is fucked because they are on the wrong side of Syria, Turkey, the US and Russia now. But they don't represent all Kurds.
i would disagree with your assessment: - Putin does not 100% control Assad; apart from russian's, Assad has his own interests to pursue, e.g. Syria+Golan under his rule. by giving the green light to Erdo to invade Syria, Putin could've killed 2 birds with 1 stone: Assad's imperialistic desires and a possible kurdish unification(under US umbrella). Iran previously hinted at giving Assad, if situation requires, a safe exile place so i'm guessing they would mainly be interested in Syria's religious affairs - as long as they'll be shia and friendly, Iran doesn't care. - any territories that turkish backed FSA conquers, will be used as bargaining chips at the negotiation table; that gives FSA dibs in a post war Syria. - fuck knows what US wants at this point but it must have something to do with EU: it's expansion, independence(economical/political) from US etc. - syrian kurds got the short end of the stick but they do seem to want more than they can chew.
Russia and Iran are defacto in control of Syria's military as far as strategic planning and long term 'big picture' operations are concerned. Even though Assad is the only hope Syria has there is no denying the deep rooted problems withing his government and military that stem from him putting very loyal people (read: party members) that don't know what they are doing in high ranking positions because 'if they betray me they go down too'. The Syrian army, after 4 years of fighting the World alone and a year+ with Russia has what can only be called a disaster when it comes to educated and competent officers capable of carrying out even simple tasks.
Assad may not be 100% under Putin and that but thats not the point. He is 100% dependent on the political backing of Russia and Iran, before Putin came in to save the day Assad was basically finished and there was widespread talk of him falling back to an Alawite state he would form around Latakia. The main goal of Assad and Russia was to put out the fire and secure the safety of Syria's large population centers. Syria is just too fucked up now to make large pushes into extremist territories in Idlib, let alone take the Euphrates no matter how many planes Russia puts in to the sky.
That said, Russia has a friend for life in Assad and they have a vested interest in keeping him in power. With Erdogan's government talking about Assad staying in power after the war is over who really knows, in my opinion Turkey now just wants to ream the PKK/YPG as hard as possible and prevent them from having any kind of power in post-war Syria. Yes Turkey is empowering the green jihadists and radicals but Syria was well on the road to becoming another Bosnia, split up into cantons and sub-republics anyway.
I don't know, if this Syrian war was a TV show, people would be saying the writers had no idea where they were going with the story at season 6 and character motivations/goals are really messy and contradictory to previous seasons... All we need now is a smoke monster.
On August 28 2016 20:57 bardtown wrote: Turkey joins in to kill/torture Kurds under the pretense of attacking ISIS. US capitulates and betrays Kurds. Turkey is no longer a friend. Kurds are no longer friends. Fantastic work. Expect terrorism from a bunch more sources.
Its not as simple as that.
I talked about this earlier in the thread:
'The reason why the Kurds have never had their own independent country is because they are one of the easiest people to turn on each other because of tribal stupidity. They have spent a millennium fighting each other over foreign interests and now when they are the closest have have been to national independence in a very very long time what do they do?
One large group hates Turks One large group works with Turks One large group wants to kick all non-Kurds out One large group works with Assad against terrorists'
And we get to the actions of the YPG last week, attacking the SAA garrison at Hasakah was so stupid and against Kurdish interests in the long run that you have to wonder what the hell they were thinking or who told them to do that. While the Assad government in Damascus is officially complaining about the Turkish invasion behind closed doors he is all smiles that his enemies are weakening each other.
Make no mistake, this operation would not have gone ahead without the green lights from Russia and the US. After the coup attempt in Turkey Erdogan has basically built all his bridges back with Russia and has shifted into a 'i love secularism' policy. Turkish planes have started going into Syria for the first time since the SU-25 was shot down which is a clear sign that Putin has given his blessing. And whatever Russia says, the Syrian government will go along with it.
Long story short, the YPG is fucked because they are on the wrong side of Syria, Turkey, the US and Russia now. But they don't represent all Kurds.
I'm not suggesting that the Kurds are innocent, just that they're the last significant faction the West had yet to make an enemy of. The Kurds were also the most effective force against ISIS and the US' most effective partner - now it's likely they'll be primarily fighting the US' other partner and ISIS will get breathing room. In effect the US no longer has any partners. There's Assad, Russia, Russia's friend Turkey, ISIS, and the Kurds who are effectively at war with the US' official ally.
I mean we will see how it develops, but it looks to me like Turkey has just humiliated the US to the benefit of Russia and that there is now absolutely no hope of stopping Assad. So what now? Continue funding/training rebels to pointlessly prolong the war, or leave them to be massacred?
I don't think so. The Turks intervened so the 2 seperate regions of the Kurds can't link up. I doubt they'll go for a full scale invasion of Kurdish territory. Russia and the US are hardly relevant in the decision to invade. Judging by the fact that the US told the Kurds to cross back over the euphrates they're hardly surprised something like this happened.
Without the US and Russia giving the go ahead Erdogan would not have gone in like this. Turkey has been talking about establishing a 'safe zone' in northern Syria for years now, and back then they were in a much stronger position and Assad was basically done for.
Russia was threatening WW3 if a Turkish plane even put its nose close to Syrian airspace a few months ago yet now as tanks roll over the border their foreign ministry is twiddling its thumbs and just not talking about it. All this while Erdogan and Putin have been calling each other every day according to media reports. They are all in on it, but their end game is murky as fuck.
your points make no sense: - Putin and Assad have a signed deal based on which Russia is allowed entry in Syria; whether one needs the other more is irrelevant because their cooperation has very specific terms stipulated in that deal. if both sides abide by those terms it's all fine between them. Putin didn't go into Syria with a "wait Assad, my friend, i'm coming to help you!. now be my bitch" attitude. there was a negotiated(during late 2014 mid 2015) consent of sorts. - UN brokered negotiations on Syria saw both Russia and Iran agree with only a transitional role for Assad, so they don't need Assad to rule Syria forever. - Assad is toying with the idea of giving China a piece of the pie. why do you figure that happens?; because Russia and Iran gave him everything he wanted?. i don't think so. (i'll write more later, working)
Edit: chew on this SF piece - Assad gets China into action and gives it Golan(economically&co. obv). under international law, Golan is syrian land and China's excuse for going in is very simple: Uyghurs. they're a turkic-ethnic chinese minority of which ~3000(allegedly) are currently fighting for ISIS. China is fighting terrorism!, very noble. now guess who has bargaining chips for some future South China Sea deals?. /clap
what's the best way to screw with US if not fucking with Israel?.
No smart plan involves fucking with Isreal. China isn't going to acept Israeli occupied land when they can't do anything with it. Any demands from china based on their "middle eastern claims" is going to be treated as a huge joke that no one takes seriously.
Why do you think there hasn't been any ISIS terrorist attacks on Jewish specific targets or the nation itself?
On August 28 2016 23:20 zeo wrote: Without the US and Russia giving the go ahead Erdogan would not have gone in like this. Turkey has been talking about establishing a 'safe zone' in northern Syria for years now, and back then they were in a much stronger position and Assad was basically done for.
On August 28 2016 23:20 zeo wrote: Without the US and Russia giving the go ahead Erdogan would not have gone in like this. Turkey has been talking about establishing a 'safe zone' in northern Syria for years now, and back then they were in a much stronger position and Assad was basically done for.
So much for that. Time to stop pretending Turkey is an ally.
Well aside from ally rant, analysis at the bottom is quite interesting.
"The liberation of Jarablus - the last remaining IS stronghold on the Turkish border - should have been cause for celebration for the US, Turkey and the groups fighting jihadist militants in northern Syria. Instead it's opened up a whole new set of potential conflicts between Turkey and the Kurdish militias, with the US stuck in the middle. Washington has long seen the Syrian Kurdish YPG forces as among the most capable in the fight against IS and has supplied training and weaponry to them. But its Nato ally, Turkey, has taken a dim view of that backing."
Maybe US should stay with the Nato ally as they are supposed to be, instead of arming some militia who will turn against Turkey when a chance given for sure.
Maybe Turkey should act like a real ally and not give no fuck about the perceived enemy at their border while using every chance to bomb people they have no business bombing?
I've seen enough about the Kurds to see that they're not the angels that they are portrayed as in the US media, and I've further seen that the US has often had poor judgment with which factions they tend to arm. However, I would have to say that Turkey's insistence on blaming the Kurds for everything and using anything as an excuse to try to fuck over the Kurds does not make them look to be in the right here. The obsession with blaming/attacking the Kurds by the Turkish government often borders on farcical. I've seen this issue develop for a long time and I can't say I have much sympathy for Turkey in that regard.
The UN has awarded contracts worth tens of millions of dollars to people closely associated with the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, as part of an aid programme that critics fear is increasingly at the whim of the government in Damascus, a Guardian investigation has found.
Businessmen whose companies are under US and EU sanctions have been paid substantial sums by the UN mission, as have government departments and charities – including one set up by the president’s wife, Asma al-Assad, and another by his closest associate, Rami Makhlouf.
The UN says it can only work with a small number of partners approved by President Assad and that it does all it can to ensure the money is spent properly.
“Of paramount importance is reaching as many vulnerable civilians as possible,” a spokesman said. “Our choices in Syria are limited by a highly insecure context where finding companies and partners who operate in besieged and hard to reach areas is extremely challenging.”
...UN insiders admit the relief mission in Syria is the most expensive, challenging and complex it has ever undertaken.
But the contentious decisions it has had to make are now exposed for the first time by a Guardian analysis of hundreds of contracts it has awarded since the operation began in 2011.
This shows that:
The UN has paid more than $13m to the Syrian government to boost farming and agriculture, yet the EU has banned trade with the departments in question for fear of how the money will be used. The UN has paid at least $4m to the state-owned fuel supplier, which is also on the EU sanctions list. The World Health Organisation has spent more than $5m to support Syria’s national blood bank – but this is being controlled by Assad’s defence department. Documents seen by the Guardian show funds spent on blood supplies came directly from donors who have economic sanctions against the Syrian government, including the UK. They also show the WHO had “concrete concerns” about whether blood supplies would reach those in need, or be directed to the military first. Two UN agencies have partnered with the Syria Trust charity, an organisation started and chaired by President Assad’s wife, Asma, spending a total of $8.5m. The first lady is under both US and EU sanctions. Unicef has paid $267,933 to the Al-Bustan Association, owned and run by Rami Makhlouf, Syria’s wealthiest man. He is a friend and cousin of Assad, and his charity has been linked to several pro-regime militia groups. Makhlouf runs the mobile phone network Syriatel, which the UN has also paid at least $700,000 in recent years. Makhlouf is on the EU sanctions list and was described in US diplomatic cables as the country’s “poster boy for corruption”. Contracts have been awarded across UN departments with companies run by or linked to individuals under sanctions.
These contracts show how the United Nations operation has quietly secured deals with individuals and companies that have been designated off-limits by Europe and the US.
On top of this, analysis of the United Nations own procurement documents show its agencies have done business with at least another 258 Syrian companies, paying sums as high as $54m and £36m, down to $30,000. Many are likely to have links to Assad, or those close to him.
The UN says that its relief work has already saved millions of lives and argues it has to work with the regime if it wants to operate in Syria.
The New York Times offering a grim view of the long-term prospects for Syria:
Professor Fearon, listing the ways that Syria’s war cannot end, said that in the best case, one side would slowly grind out a far-off victory that would merely downgrade the war into “a somewhat lower-level insurgency, terrorist attacks and so on.”
The worst case is significantly worse.
According to a 2015 paper by Professor Walter and Kenneth M. Pollack, a Middle East expert, “Outright military victory in a civil war often comes at the price of horrific (even genocidal) levels of violence against the defeated, including their civilian populations.”
This could bring entirely new conflicts to the Middle East, they found: “Victorious groups in a civil war sometimes also try to employ their newfound strength against neighboring states, resulting in interstate wars.”
there obviously was no ceasefire; US is trying to prevent the turks from running over SDF kurds. meanwhile russians say that a Russia-US deal on Syria is close to maybe they're just dividing the country in influence spheres: rebels(Saudi+Qatar backed) get Idlib Gov., Turkey(its turkmen/FSA militia) something in N Syria, US chills the fuck up with its kurdish agenda then they'll all start living happily ever after ... then again, the fuck do i know.
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia will expand its military action against the Islamic State militant group in Syria and Iraq after amending its domestic laws, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said on Thursday.
Australia joined the U.S-backed coalition against Islamic State in September 2014, and has steadily increased its military participation against the group that has repeatedly called for attacks against the United States and other Western countries.
However, Turnbull said Australia's role had been hamstrung by differences between domestic and international law, a loophole that his government would close with new legislation.
Australian law currently only allows the targeting of people who were playing an active role in hostilities, which Turnbull said was more restrictive than international law.
"This legal risk posed a major challenge to the effectiveness of our operations. It meant that the [Australian Defence Force's] targeting base in Iraq and Syria was restricted, and we could not operate as freely as our coalition partners," Turnbull told the Australian parliament.
Turnbull said military operations could expand to target "a broader range" of Islamic State combatants once the law was changed.
...
In July, Australia proposed legislation to indefinitely detain people convicted of terrorism-related charges if it felt they posed a danger to society upon their released.
The legislation would be introduced to parliament next week, Turnbull said.
Turnbull also flagged stronger surveillance of potential Islamic State supporters in Australia.
He said approximately 200 people were being investigated in Australia for providing support to individuals and groups in the conflict in Syria and Iraq.
"There are still people outside our country, and some within it, who hate the freedoms that we enjoy and would seek to threaten them and undermine them with violence," said Turnbull.
town right next to a regime stronghold with hills/mountain overlooking Hama City. The Hills are being fought over right now according to reports. A few months ago Assad's forces were compared to a paper tiger, that was a overstatement.
Syria's army and its allies have regained an important Aleppo district lost to rebels last month, state media and a war monitor said on Thursday, and were pressing an offensive south of the city to further squeeze the insurgents.
If sustained, the advance in Ramousah would reverse nearly all gains rebels made in a push last month, tighten a blockade over rebel-held eastern Aleppo and ease access for the army into government-held western districts through the city's south.
A second line of attack, aimed at villages south of Aleppo and supported by what a pro-government fighter called "dusk to dawn" bombardment, is intended to isolate Telat al-Eis, a hill captured by rebels in May that commands fire over the region.
However, a rebel source said insurgents still held part of Ramousah and that though the army was mobilizing forces, the Jaish al-Fatah coalition of Islamist groups was still present at the southern Aleppo front.
The battle for Aleppo has become the focus both for President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Shi'ite militias from Iraq and Lebanon, Iran's Revolutionary Guards, and Russian air power, and for the Sunni rebels seeking to overthrow him.
In early August the rebel advance into southern Aleppo gave them control over the residential district of Ramousah, a complex of military colleges immediately to its west and the 1070 Apartment Blocks district west of that.
It opened a corridor into the rebel-held parts of Aleppo that are home to at least 250,000 people and had been under siege for weeks, while forcing the government to access its own areas in the city by a longer, more precarious route.
As international concern has mounted, the United Nations has renewed a call for weekly 48-hour humanitarian ceasefires to allow aid into the city, but efforts by Russia and the United States to agree terms for a truce are dragging.
On Thursday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry discussed by phone potential cooperation to facilitate aid deliveries.
Syria's five-year war has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced 11 million, half of Syria's pre-war population, while drawing in world and regional powers, inspiring jihadist attacks across the world and sparking an international refugee crisis.
After thirteen hours of talks in Geneva, the U.S. and Russia early Saturday announced an agreement on a nationwide cease-fire, The Associated Press reported.
Under the agreement that was reached by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov all hostilities across Syria will cease on Monday for a week. After that the two leaders aim to discuss a new military partnership targeting the Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates in Syria as well as the establishment of new limits on President Bashar Assad’s forces, particularly the airforce.
“Today the United States and Russia are announcing a plan which we hope will reduce violence, ease suffering and resume movement toward a negotiated peace and a political transition in Syria,” Kerry said shortly after midnight Monday, according to the AP. “We are announcing an arrangement that we think has the capability of sticking, but it is dependent on people’s choices.”
He called the deal a potential “turning point” in the five-year conflict that has killed as many as 500,000 people, displaced millions inside the war-wrecked country and turned millions more into refugees in neighboring countries and in Europe.
The plan Kerry and Lavorv agreed on could reduce violence in Syria if the Russian-backed government in Damascus and U.S.-supported rebel groups comply with the ceasefire agreement. The two leaders expressed hope it could also pave the way to long-sought political transition, ending the carnage.
Lavrov confirmed the agreement and said it could help expand the counterterrorism fight and aid deliveries to Syrian civilians under U.N. auspices that have been stalled for weeks. He said that Assad’s government was informed of the accord, and is prepared to comply.
“This is just the beginning of our new relations,” Lavrov said according to the AP.
The cease-fire begins at sundown Monday and coincides with the Muslim Eid al-Adha holiday.
some good chances there unless it's a stall from Obama's administration until Clinton becomes president then she'll start a ww3 to reckon them russians.
After thirteen hours of talks in Geneva, the U.S. and Russia early Saturday announced an agreement on a nationwide cease-fire, The Associated Press reported.
Under the agreement that was reached by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov all hostilities across Syria will cease on Monday for a week. After that the two leaders aim to discuss a new military partnership targeting the Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates in Syria as well as the establishment of new limits on President Bashar Assad’s forces, particularly the airforce.
“Today the United States and Russia are announcing a plan which we hope will reduce violence, ease suffering and resume movement toward a negotiated peace and a political transition in Syria,” Kerry said shortly after midnight Monday, according to the AP. “We are announcing an arrangement that we think has the capability of sticking, but it is dependent on people’s choices.”
He called the deal a potential “turning point” in the five-year conflict that has killed as many as 500,000 people, displaced millions inside the war-wrecked country and turned millions more into refugees in neighboring countries and in Europe.
The plan Kerry and Lavorv agreed on could reduce violence in Syria if the Russian-backed government in Damascus and U.S.-supported rebel groups comply with the ceasefire agreement. The two leaders expressed hope it could also pave the way to long-sought political transition, ending the carnage.
Lavrov confirmed the agreement and said it could help expand the counterterrorism fight and aid deliveries to Syrian civilians under U.N. auspices that have been stalled for weeks. He said that Assad’s government was informed of the accord, and is prepared to comply.
“This is just the beginning of our new relations,” Lavrov said according to the AP.
The cease-fire begins at sundown Monday and coincides with the Muslim Eid al-Adha holiday.
some good chances there unless it's a stall from Obama's administration until Clinton becomes president then she'll start a ww3 to reckon them russians.
This war is ridiculous. Officially, neither Russia not the US are fighting in it. But the parties that are actually involved are not even present at the talks about the ceasefire. They just hop when Putin/Obama tells them to.
EPT
