North Korea Fires Artillery Rounds at South Korean Island…

On November 25 2010 13:23 Duban wrote:

One bomb isn't going to kill 5 million people. If you're talking about the nuclear arsenal you're poorly informed. N Korea's bombs are very small in yield, at most the size of the Hiroshima/Nagasaki bombs, probably less. It wouldn't be pretty but we aren't talking about a modern multi-megaton thermonuclear device.

Also, more importantly N Korea has no platform with which to deploy their nuclear weapons. Their nuclear bombs are huge while their missile and bomber cargo sizes are small. The best they could do would be drive a truck in and hope nobody asks questions about the large radioactive device crossing the border. Not likely.

N Korea has nukes only in the technical sense. It'll be another decade or more before they can realistically use them.

On November 25 2010 13:24 Deadlyhazard wrote:

Link?

It isn't very hard for them to clusterbomb us with chemical weapons from a conventional jet and all they have to do is get one or two off in Seoul which is right fucking next to the DMZ. If you're trying to convince me that there's no reason to fear for people's lives in Seoul I consider you the uninformed one.

There are 10 million people in Seoul, it's not a stretch to think 5 million people could die if they hit it hard.

On November 25 2010 13:03 ImFromPortugal wrote:
North Korea isnt trying to invade the South, they responded against the drills South Korea was doing , and they warned they wouldnt admit such activities.


"The skirmish began after North Korea warned the South to stop carrying out military drills near their sea border, South Korean officials said.

When Seoul refused and fired artillery into disputed waters - away from the North Korean shore - the North retaliated by shelling Yeonpyeong."

On November 25 2010 13:38 n00bination wrote:

Agreed. The South Korean military, if sources are correct, provoked a response by firing into disputed waters.

Source
It's in Chinese, for what it's worth.

This means that China and Russia will most likely back North Korea. Unless the US wants World War III on their hands, they better defuse this situation.

On November 25 2010 13:42 Deadlyhazard wrote:

I doubt China would back NK. They know it would cause a global war...and that wouldn't be worth it. Because China would be going against the US, both would have their economies severely damaged and both would lose.

On November 25 2010 13:38 Duban wrote:

I never said that there wouldn't be massive casualties. Throughout this entire thread I've stated, repeatedly, that an artillery bombardment would be bad. The person that I was quoting stated that "ONE BOMB" would kill 5 million people. I assumed he meant nukes while, for the time being, the nukes pose little threat to civilian lives.

On November 25 2010 13:53 MightyAtom wrote:


North Korea won't nuke South Korea, they will nuke Japan, North Koreans still think South Korea is part of their Korea or our Korea.
In the first 20 mins of war, there will be at least 1 M South Korean causalities in Seoul due to artillery fire, everyone who goes to the army in Korea knows this, its simply unavoidable.

Just wanted to add this in, as far how the war would end up if there was war, will all depend on how China would react and the last Korean war, they reacted quite strongly...

On November 25 2010 13:48 n00bination wrote:

The United States is about to move in aircraft carriers. I think that's a pretty clear indication that the US is going to back South Korean retaliation. Do you really think that China's going to ignore this? Given the Chinese report, they definitely think that South Korea brought this on themselves. I see no reason they would NOT support North Korea. China has absolute leverage over just about every country involved in this.

They are the largest customer for South Korean exports. They could easily cut that market off and put a stranglehold on South Korea's economy. At the same time, China could do something similar to the United States. Granted, at this point it would probably be something akin to Mutually Assured Destruction, but I'm sure the US is just as afraid of this situation as China is. If China were to back North Korea, I don't think the South Koreans or the Americans would be insane enough to start something. Finally, (and probably most obviously) China controls North Korea. Period. Without China, the government ceases to exist in a short few years, so North Korea will bend over backwards for China.

On November 25 2010 13:58 ZerglingSoup wrote:

China is going to stay as neutral as possible here. And if they do any posturing behind NK at all, it will pretty much be commonly accepted that they are trying to maintain their political influence over North Korea.

EDIT: Clarifying

On November 25 2010 14:00 Deadlyhazard wrote:

Is China known for being that aggressive in the past, say, decade or two? I'm not sure they'd do something like that.

(1) VIEWS OF THE USFK AND THE ROK ARMED FORCES

¢¹ North Korea's political and military leadership views the KPA as the fourth largest conventional force in the world both in terms of size and capability, replete with one of the best chemical weapons inventories in the world. Another entrenched assumption is that the ROK armed forces will not mount a serious challenge, and North Korean victory is certain if not for the USFK.

- In addition, they claim ability to track movement by all South Korean combat aircraft and warships, and enough artillery to level Seoul completely within five or six minutes, regardless of the southern defense budget that far outstrips the North's.

¢¹ The North Korean population has been led to believe that its special forces can infiltrate the US just as easily as the South Korean coast, by their propaganda machine. It also claims the US mainland will not be safe from combat, unlike the wars in the past.

¢¹ North Korea has vowed to counter any US offensive with suicide attacks upon American aircraft and warships, which they conceive will be effective at keeping US forces at bay. The DPRK military belittles the military significance of the Gulf War, and claims that it has the technological capability to match the US military.

¢¹ Kim Jong-il and his planners analyzed potential weaknesses of US weaponry after the Gulf War, and produced a film concerning North Korean victory over US weapons systems. The film was made required viewing for the military commanders in strategy and other departments, for purposes of augmenting confidence in the possibility of triumph over the US forces.

¢¹ A successful suicide attack and sinking of even one US cruiser will ignite anti-war protests that will take the US out of the war, and threats of is enough to cow the South Korean population into submission, according to North Korean propaganda.