|
Alrighty folks Theros gave us the anti-persist Anger of the Gods and planeswalker removal in the form of Hero's Downfall which means I had to try and force modern Cruel Control again. Thoughts? Started from Chapin's list, as I thought it would be better to attempt a shift towards tapout post-T2 over draw-go a la UWR
+ Show Spoiler +
Testing with a friend just as bad as I am reveals: Slightly favored vs Jund. Slightly favored vs. Pod. Horrible vs. Tron. Slight underdog vs. Splinter Twin. Even/slightly favored vs. Aggro. Slightly favored vs. Affinity. Get there dealer one time vs. Burn
Edit: Chapin's Article http://www.starcitygames.com/article/26774_Grixis-In-Modern.html
Cheon's Article http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/cheonnalfirepaul-cruel-control/
|
That list looks pretty strong. My first impression is that the mana base is kinda of iffy. If you want to playtest on cockatrice, shoot me a PM (I run a Jund list).
|
How can you say mono blue is inconsistent and statistics don't matter?
https://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/ptths13/Constructed_Archetypes
45.95% of the mono blue decks went 4-1 or better. The next best was GR with 27.03% going 4-1 or better. Not counting 1 of decks of course. That is the definition of consistency. But sure, your information gathered from playing mws is probably much more valuable than a PT.
Also, like the look of that deck Risen. Chapin definitely was onto something and anger of the gods is certainly a nice addition. I think 4 electrolyze might be the way to go though. So good right now.
|
On October 15 2013 03:49 DEN1ED wrote:How can you say mono blue is inconsistent and statistics don't matter? https://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/ptths13/Constructed_Archetypes45.95% of the mono blue decks went 4-1 or better. The next best was GR with 27.03% going 4-1 or better. Not counting 1 of decks of course. That is the definition of consistency. But sure, your information gathered from playing mws is probably much more valuable than a PT. Also, like the look of that deck Risen. Chapin definitely was onto something and anger of the gods is certainly a nice addition. I think 4 electrolyze might be the way to go though. So good right now.
Do you really want to use that article again as evidence? Think hard about it for a second, then come back to me.
That article is a curiosity and nothing more.
God I hate people who suck at statistics.
|
Nice, offers nothing to refute anything I say. You are clearly the one without a solid understanding of statistics and you have done nothing to prove me wrong because you just go "lol no" and don't actually formulate your own argument. I'll just forget about trying to argue with you since you don't understand how arguments work.
|
Straight outta Johto18973 Posts
I don't generally interject in these sorts of arguments but I will in this case. For one, I would not read massively into those statistics because typically decks that SCG or CFB all play en-masse will do very well by sheer force of numbers and the fact there are some very skilled pilots backing it up. The article itself also says that it doesn't take into account the Limited portion of the event, or who is playing what deck. So it's an interesting set of numbers, but you can't immediately read too much into it without further context or detail. Also, a lot of those decks are going to be built differently in the coming weeks so matchups will change.
That being said Judi you should try to be less abrasive in this thread.
|
On October 15 2013 04:30 MoonBear wrote:
I don't generally interject in these sorts of arguments but I will in this case. For one, I would not read massively into those statistics because typically decks that SCG or CFB all play en-masse will do very well by sheer force of numbers and the fact there are some very skilled pilots backing it up. The article itself also says that it doesn't take into account the Limited portion of the event, or who is playing what deck. So it's an interesting set of numbers, but you can't immediately read too much into it without further context or detail. Also, a lot of those decks are going to be built differently in the coming weeks so matchups will change.
That being said Judi you should try to be less abrasive in this thread.
Pro Tours and Grand Prix's that normally have a 3 day span usually switch from Constructed, to Limited, back to Constructed.
Always check day 1 results to figure out which decks got through and compare it with day 3 results to see whether or not day 1 results occurred due to deck strength or player strength.
For example, if Kai Budd gets top 8 playing a pauper weenie deck, I will assume its because he's Kai Budd and not because Pauper Weenie is the new standard go to.
Although I do agree that Mono-blue is not a flash in the pan deck, but just because it went well in 1 event doesn't say much.
|
On October 15 2013 04:30 MoonBear wrote:
I don't generally interject in these sorts of arguments but I will in this case. For one, I would not read massively into those statistics because typically decks that SCG or CFB all play en-masse will do very well by sheer force of numbers and the fact there are some very skilled pilots backing it up. The article itself also says that it doesn't take into account the Limited portion of the event, or who is playing what deck. So it's an interesting set of numbers, but you can't immediately read too much into it without further context or detail. Also, a lot of those decks are going to be built differently in the coming weeks so matchups will change.
Ya, I can understand that. CFB didn't do well this tourney however whereas SCG did very well. Their deck choices were a large portion of this. I just think it is insane to say "mono U has a terrible matchup vs esper" when team SCG, a collection of some of the greatest magic players/minds in history, decided to play the deck knowing the field would be full of esper. I've played the matchup some and I'm sure others of you have as well but nothing compared to the work they put in.
On a different note, I'm loving mono black devotion as well. Ironically pack rat destroys mono blue lol. Their only out is cyclonic rift and it's usually too late once they get to 7 mana.
|
Now for anyone who's wondering why that article is useless to draw conclusions from....
Its day 1 results, theres a lot of decks out there and some of those decks listed are terrible in general. So the most relevant information that analysts actually want is matchup data which we dont have.
Now lets say they do have that data, whats the next problem? Sample sizes are small, player skill differential, on the play versus draw, pre-board versus post-board, win/loss ratios based on number of turns, relevance of cards drawn excluding lands, and thats what I came up with that can be relevant to the assessment of whether MonoU is actually a consistent deck against the field or if the deck is just lucky in the very limited number of matches in the pro tour
Better yet whats the overall record of the different deck type? Would you still consider MonoU to be consistent if it had a bunch of decks that just went 1 or 2 wins on day 1?
Posted after the other posts. People misusing statistics is pet peeve of mine but I will edit this post later. Since I al on the phone.
Edited.
|
Once again, starting an argument by insulting your opposition and talking about clown shoes/clothes just discredits anything you say after that. It's unfortunate you are unable to keep your cool and not turn to insults since I would love to be able to have a real discussion here.
|
@Den1ed, you're evidence isn't evidence of a matchup, it is only evidence of a decks matchup in a random field.
@judicator, the deck was very successful in that field and the results are a good indicator that we can start to extensively start play testing the deck more thoroughly.
Now can we stop this... Whatever *this* is?
|
On October 15 2013 05:24 DEN1ED wrote:
Once again, starting an argument by insulting your opposition and talking about clown shoes/clothes just discredits anything you say after that. It's unfortunate you are unable to keep your cool and not turn to insults since I would love to be able to have a real discussion here.
Because you refused to back off a claim that is supported by whatever shitty evidence that article provided and pretended you know what statistics is. I'll apologize for calling you a clown if you are willing to just admit that using that article is completely misleading since that's all you used for your argument. Fair? I am not even going to ask you to apologize for insulting me since I did instigate you into this discussion of statistics.
The real discussion is that the deck is a fine deck, but my intitial impressions of the deck is that it's inconsistent despite the results (which would be the definition of results oriented). Its has issues against certain mid range decks. MonoU has a surpisingly limited capacity to smooth out draws like the previous iterations of these type of decks, there are no Ponders/Preordains or Mana Leaks to really just lay an early threat and protect or really just cantrip your way into action. Likewise the MonoU deck isn't built exactly like those decks of old, but that also means it needs its smoothers more than old decks.
From the very limited testing I did yesterday with friends, it seems like if Thassa or Bident never stays on the field for long or long enough to be relevant, the MonoU deck suffers tremendously particularly against mid range.
Now why is this deck good aka why did SCG end up running it? The average to good draws will give a good win chance against the field, its not a lot, but its like the Caw-Blade percentages, 6-4s in most match ups. However, the deck runs into issues against early removal since you don't have protection and det spheres can just ruin your day.
The reason I said the Esper match up isn't good is because Esper can fight the deck on the same number of lands through out provided that Esper has a reasonable clutch of removal spells which isn't too much to task for to be honest. This was not the case in the past. For the first time in a long time, the control deck is able to play a straight up trade game with the blue aggro tempo deck of the format. So card economy wise, Esper matches up with this deck pretty well, no cheeky Resto Angels, no 3/2 flyers on turn 2 with Leak back up, no Birds into more Birds, no hexproof 2/2s that clock you for 6 a turn.
The problem is that post-board, Esper players are bringing in some answers, while MonoUs are bringing in a more diverse package of threats and countermagic.
Is MonoU worth testing against? Sure. Is there much more to test for MonoU? I don't think so. There's not a whole lot to tweak in this deck since its one color.
Now if you want to make the argument that SCG ran the deck despite knowing Esper is a lot of the field, I don't think they predicted GWT's removal set up which is what I was praising a few posts ago but also subtely the lack of Ashioks in the 75 which is quite terrible against this deck. The deck struggled against BW unsurprisingly and also Domri in RG, so I am not so sure if the deck is actually that good against average draws, but probably still 6-4 at the very least.
|
On October 15 2013 03:44 caelym wrote:
That list looks pretty strong. My first impression is that the mana base is kinda of iffy. If you want to playtest on cockatrice, shoot me a PM (I run a Jund list).
My list > generic Jund
My list < Caelyn's Jund grind you into dust over 20 turns T_T
|
Cockatrice is still up? I thought the private servers went down also. In either case, I need to play some more and possibly test one more deck before GP Louisville.
Risen, why are you running 4 Bolts in that deck? The numbers seems off to me since while Bolt is good, it seems worse than the other cards you have, what are you trying to hit with it?
|
my list if anyone's wondering
+ Show Spoiler +
4 Deathrite Shaman
4 Dark Confidant
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Liliana of the Veil
2 Chandra, Pyromaster
3 Scavenging Ooze
1 Abrupt Decay
2 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
2 Terminate
2 Raging Ravine
3 Treetop Village
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
4 Marsh Flats
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Thundermaw Hellkite
1 Woodland Cemetery
1 Hero's Downfall
1 Bonfire of the Damned
1 Olivia Voldaren
SB: 3 Ancient Grudge
SB: 4 Stone Rain
SB: 2 Obstinate Baloth
SB: 2 Anger of the Gods
SB: 1 Grim Lavamancer
SB: 1 Slaughter Games
SB: 1 Abrupt Decay
SB: 1 Bonfire of the Damned
On October 15 2013 06:20 Judicator wrote:
Cockatrice is still up? I thought the private servers went down also. In either case, I need to play some more and possibly test one more deck before GP Louisville.
Risen, why are you running 4 Bolts in that deck? The numbers seems off to me since while Bolt is good, it seems worse than the other cards you have, what are you trying to hit with it?
google woogerworks.
lightning bolt is good vs DRS, hierarch, dark confidant, manlands, planeswalkers, etc. I'd prob do -1 bolt, +1 electrolyze, -1 gatekeeper, +1 snapcaster (maybe -1 damnation, +1 snapcaster; I think 4 snapcasters is worth it).
|
On October 15 2013 06:20 Judicator wrote:
Cockatrice is still up? I thought the private servers went down also. In either case, I need to play some more and possibly test one more deck before GP Louisville.
Risen, why are you running 4 Bolts in that deck? The numbers seems off to me since while Bolt is good, it seems worse than the other cards you have, what are you trying to hit with it?
Honestly, 4 bolts is because it's lightning bolt (that might be wrong). I'm trying to find a way to fit in a fourth electrolyze because I'm very nearly never sad to see it. I was considering going to 1 damnation main since I have the 2 angers main and getting the 4th electrolyze that way. Bolt hits DRS on T1 though. That's huge for the deck.
|
On October 15 2013 06:16 Judicator wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2013 05:24 DEN1ED wrote:
Once again, starting an argument by insulting your opposition and talking about clown shoes/clothes just discredits anything you say after that. It's unfortunate you are unable to keep your cool and not turn to insults since I would love to be able to have a real discussion here. Because you refused to back off a claim that is supported by whatever shitty evidence that article provided and pretended you know what statistics is. I'll apologize for calling you a clown if you are willing to just admit that using that article is completely misleading since that's all you used for your argument. Fair? I am not even going to ask you to apologize for insulting me since I did instigate you into this discussion of statistics. The real discussion is that the deck is a fine deck, but my intitial impressions of the deck is that it's inconsistent despite the results (which would be the definition of results oriented). Its has issues against certain mid range decks. MonoU has a surpisingly limited capacity to smooth out draws like the previous iterations of these type of decks, there are no Ponders/Preordains or Mana Leaks to really just lay an early threat and protect or really just cantrip your way into action. Likewise the MonoU deck isn't built exactly like those decks of old, but that also means it needs its smoothers more than old decks. From the very limited testing I did yesterday with friends, it seems like if Thassa or Bident never stays on the field for long or long enough to be relevant, the MonoU deck suffers tremendously particularly against mid range. Now why is this deck good aka why did SCG end up running it? The average to good draws will give a good win chance against the field, its not a lot, but its like the Caw-Blade percentages, 6-4s in most match ups. However, the deck runs into issues against early removal since you don't have protection and det spheres can just ruin your day. The reason I said the Esper match up isn't good is because Esper can fight the deck on the same number of lands through out provided that Esper has a reasonable clutch of removal spells which isn't too much to task for to be honest. This was not the case in the past. For the first time in a long time, the control deck is able to play a straight up trade game with the blue aggro tempo deck of the format. So card economy wise, Esper matches up with this deck pretty well, no cheeky Resto Angels, no 3/2 flyers on turn 2 with Leak back up, no Birds into more Birds, no hexproof 2/2s that clock you for 6 a turn. The problem is that post-board, Esper players are bringing in some answers, while MonoUs are bringing in a more diverse package of threats and countermagic. Is MonoU worth testing against? Sure. Is there much more to test for MonoU? I don't think so. There's not a whole lot to tweak in this deck since its one color. Now if you want to make the argument that SCG ran the deck despite knowing Esper is a lot of the field, I don't think they predicted GWT's removal set up which is what I was praising a few posts ago but also subtely the lack of Ashioks in the 75 which is quite terrible against this deck. The deck struggled against BW unsurprisingly and also Domri in RG, so I am not so sure if the deck is actually that good against average draws, but probably still 6-4 at the very least.
Personally,
The deck looks too much like an awkward version of my Coastal Piracy decks in masque block to take seriously. No Rishadan Airships, no Gush, no Daze, no Foils.
|
On October 15 2013 06:27 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2013 06:20 Judicator wrote:
Cockatrice is still up? I thought the private servers went down also. In either case, I need to play some more and possibly test one more deck before GP Louisville.
Risen, why are you running 4 Bolts in that deck? The numbers seems off to me since while Bolt is good, it seems worse than the other cards you have, what are you trying to hit with it? Honestly, 4 bolts is because it's lightning bolt (that might be wrong). I'm trying to find a way to fit in a fourth electrolyze because I'm very nearly never sad to see it. I was considering going to 1 damnation main since I have the 2 angers main and getting the 4th electrolyze that way. Bolt hits DRS on T1 though. That's huge for the deck.
And @caelym too,
It just seems 4 is a bit much, yes, its good against those cards, but its like do you really want 4 though. And bolt is bolt, that I agree.
Edit:
MonoU was running the airship of this format, Vaporkin, in some builds.
|
I honestly don't hate the Vaporkin and/or Galerider Sliver versions, the more a Standard deck looks like a draft deck the better.
|
On October 15 2013 06:50 Judicator wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2013 06:27 Risen wrote:On October 15 2013 06:20 Judicator wrote:
Cockatrice is still up? I thought the private servers went down also. In either case, I need to play some more and possibly test one more deck before GP Louisville.
Risen, why are you running 4 Bolts in that deck? The numbers seems off to me since while Bolt is good, it seems worse than the other cards you have, what are you trying to hit with it? Honestly, 4 bolts is because it's lightning bolt (that might be wrong). I'm trying to find a way to fit in a fourth electrolyze because I'm very nearly never sad to see it. I was considering going to 1 damnation main since I have the 2 angers main and getting the 4th electrolyze that way. Bolt hits DRS on T1 though. That's huge for the deck. Edit: MonoU was running the airship of this format, Vaporkin, in some builds.
I guess I still connect Vaporkin with Cloud of Faeries lol. But you're right. Good call. Big diff between 3 power and 2 power, but then again a god activation is much biigger than a 3/1 flyer 
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](http://deckstats.net/mana/m/u.gif)
![[image loading]](http://deckstats.net/mana/m/b.gif)
![[image loading]](http://deckstats.net/mana/m/r.gif)
![[image loading]](http://i.hbtronix.de/chart_pie.png)
Display deck statistics
